semblar Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Given the number of fixtures left where the teams below us play each other, I decided to do some number crunching. Assumptions: We lost all our games A team below us playing a team above us won For the five remaining matches with two teams below us playing, one wins the game ( this only gives 32 permutations to look at, with draws it is 243) Crewe v Colchester Oldham v Coventry Carlisle v Oldham Gillingham v Shrewsbury Oldham v Notts County Working on the assumptions that one of the teams won, this only gives 32 permutations to look at (with draws it is 243) Only 6 of the 32 would result in us being relegated. For all six, Crewe wins the fixture at the top of the list. Similary, for all six, Carlisle has to beat Oldham. In either match, even a draw would only get Crewe or Carlisle level on points with us and with the GD differential it is implausible that they would finish above us. I was hoping to discover that we were already Mathematically safe - not quite, but it is a pretty extreme set of results that would be needed to send us down now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Are you related to Horace Batchelor from Keynsham (spelt K E Y N S H A M)? This is definitely an Infra Draw calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted April 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Not that I'm aware of - I just sometimes wonder "what if" and go and work out the answer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Well worked out Semblar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gert Mare Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 We're safe. The goal difference is worth a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoldenBall Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 The last 10 or so years in league 1 50 points gets you safe. And like Cheesley said our GD is an extra point, plus we won't lose all our remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 The last 10 or so years in league 1 50 points gets you safe. And like Cheesley said our GD is an extra point, plus we won't lose all our remaining games. I just want it to be official before I walk out into the middle of my street and shout "THANK ****!" at the top of my voice. It seems like we've been candidates for relegation since half time at Sixfields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esmond Million's Bung Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 We're safe. The goal difference is worth a point. Yes but Semblar factored in losing anything from 32 v 0 to 1- 0, so might not be worth a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted April 17, 2014 Admin Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Have you got any diagrams to help make sense of all that please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoldenBall Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 I just want it to be official before I walk out into the middle of my street and shout "THANK ****!" at the top of my voice. It seems like we've been candidates for relegation since half time at Sixfields. It sure will be a relief when we're mathematically safe, then we can concentrate on another teams relegation fight..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Have you got any diagrams to help make sense of all that please? Yes a nice pie chart please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin phantom Posted April 17, 2014 Admin Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Yes a nice pie chart please Did someone say PIES !?!?! Clarkes please ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EnclosureSurge Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Given the number of fixtures left where the teams below us play each other, I decided to do some number crunching. Assumptions: We lost all our games A team below us playing a team above us won For the five remaining matches with two teams below us playing, one wins the game ( this only gives 32 permutations to look at, with draws it is 243) Crewe v Colchester Oldham v Coventry Carlisle v Oldham Gillingham v Shrewsbury Oldham v Notts County Working on the assumptions that one of the teams won, this only gives 32 permutations to look at (with draws it is 243) Only 6 of the 32 would result in us being relegated. For all six, Crewe wins the fixture at the top of the list. Similary, for all six, Carlisle has to beat Oldham. In either match, even a draw would only get Crewe or Carlisle level on points with us and with the GD differential it is implausible that they would finish above us. I was hoping to discover that we were already Mathematically safe - not quite, but it is a pretty extreme set of results that would be needed to send us down now.... Cracking work, Semblar, cracking. Always a place for mathematical logarithms, calculae and hypotenuses on otib. As an eternal pessimist this has actually reassured me!! Top Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted April 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 As has already been suggested above, the chances are we will be mathematically safe after tomorrow even if we lose - the number of permutations where we go down are very small. If we get 2 more points then nothing anybody else does (on the pitch) can send us down . The current bottom four have to win every one of the games against teams above us - and then for the pivotal games, only 6 out of 32 possible combinations would see us going down. Even so, I'm hoping for it all to be completely oficial tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WTFiGO!?! Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 I'm too frightened to look, not because of our chances of relegation but that the Maths will tie my brain into knots. Still, judging by reaction I get the impression it's good news, cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whites Posted April 17, 2014 Report Share Posted April 17, 2014 Bazinga!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ten minutes of rough Posted April 18, 2014 Report Share Posted April 18, 2014 Given the number of fixtures left where the teams below us play each other, I decided to do some number crunching. Assumptions: We lost all our games A team below us playing a team above us won For the five remaining matches with two teams below us playing, one wins the game ( this only gives 32 permutations to look at, with draws it is 243) Crewe v Colchester Oldham v Coventry Carlisle v Oldham Gillingham v Shrewsbury Oldham v Notts County Working on the assumptions that one of the teams won, this only gives 32 permutations to look at (with draws it is 243) Only 6 of the 32 would result in us being relegated. For all six, Crewe wins the fixture at the top of the list. Similary, for all six, Carlisle has to beat Oldham. In either match, even a draw would only get Crewe or Carlisle level on points with us and with the GD differential it is implausible that they would finish above us. I was hoping to discover that we were already Mathematically safe - not quite, but it is a pretty extreme set of results that would be needed to send us down now.... Don't know if I should be anxious or relieved. But let's face it we are staying up in League 1, that's the old 3rd division btw...rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.