Admin phantom Posted February 25, 2015 Admin Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 The remaining fixtures for the current top five sides are: BRISTOL CITY Saturday 28th March HOME Vs Barnsley Friday 3rd April AWAY Vs Oldham Athletic Tuesday 7th April HOME Vs Swindon Town Saturday 11th April AWAY Vs Preston North End Tuesday 14th April AWAY Vs Bradford City Saturday 18th April HOME Vs Coventry City Saturday 25th April AWAY Vs Chesterfield Sunday 3rd May HOME Vs Walsall MK DONS Saturday 21st March AWAY Vs Notts County Saturday 28th March HOME Vs Doncaster Saturday 4th April AWAY Vs Swindon Town Monday 6th April HOME Vs Scunthorpe Utd Saturday 11th April AWAY Vs Port Vale Tuesday 14th April AWAY Vs Fleetwood Saturday 18th April HOME Vs Leyton Orient Saturday 25th April AWAY Vs Rochdale Sunday 3rd May HOME Vs Yeovil SWINDON TOWN Saturday 28th March AWAY Vs Colchester Saturday 4th April HOME Vs MK Dons Tuesday 7th April AWAY Vs Bristol City Saturday 11th April HOME Vs Peterborough Tuesday 14th April AWAY Vs Rochdale Saturday 18th April HOME Vs Yeovil Town Saturday 25th April AWAY Vs Preston Sunday 3rd May HOME Vs Leyton Orient PRESTON NORTH END Saturday 21st March AWAY Vs Barnsley Saturday 28th March AWAY Vs Fleetwood Saturday 3rd April HOME Vs Rochdale Monday 6th April AWAY Vs Bradford City Saturday 11th April HOME Vs Bristol City Tuesday 14th April HOME Vs Gillingham Friday 17th April AWAY Vs Port Vale Tuesday 21st April AWAY Vs Notts County Saturday 25th April HOME Vs Swindon Sunday 3rd May AWAY Vs Colchester SHEFFIELD UNITED Saturday 21st March HOME Vs Port Vale Tuesday 24th March HOME Vs Scunthorpe Saturday 28th March HOME Vs Crewe Saturday 4th April AWAY Vs Barnsley Tuesday 7th April HOME Vs Doncaster Saturday 11th April AWAY Vs Oldham Tuesday 14th April AWAY Vs Yeovil Saturday 18th April HOME Vs Bradford City Saturday 25th April AWAY Vs Leyton Orient Sunday 3rd May HOME Vs Chesterfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TETBURY MASSIVE Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is it me or do Crewe have a difficult 2 games on Saturday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manon Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 A football menage a trois. Is that a blatter concept? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 There are five games between members of the current top five - call them "key games". Assuming a worst case for us (all the other teams win all their other games), there are 243 permutations of key game resuls (home/draw/away) Keeping things simple by ignoring GD and asuming that for promotion we need to beat the pints score of three of the four other teams we would need 98 points in 59 of the 243 99 in 57/243 100 in 82/243 101 in 18/243 102 in 24/243 103 in 3/243 So we are still in "get 103 points from now and we mathematically guarantee promotion". Interestingly, the three permutations all have us losing to Preston, MK dons and Preston both beating Swindon and then drawing against each other - and all three possible results in our match against Swindon. SO you heard it here first: How Swindon do in their match at AG is irrelevant in terms of how many points we need from now to mathematically guarantee promotion....our match against Preston is more significant in this (very narrow) mathematical sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Preston have an evil run in: three away games and a home game against Swindon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Is it me or do Crewe have a difficult 2 games on Saturday?? Hopefully the first team go to Swindon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Preston have an evil run in: three away games and a home game against Swindon But those 3 teams away could all have nothing to play for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 It's quite remarkable that EVERY team in the division are within only 5 points of something, be it auto promotion, play off or relegation places or safety. Every single team still has everything to play for at this stage of the season and games are only going to get tougher as the scrap really begins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at my league table post it showed that a lot of the relegation issues could be out of the way early. Such is the gap at the bottom that some are already goners. By the end of March only 5 teams could be less than 48 points or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking at my league table post it showed that a lot of the relegation issues could be out of the way early. Such is the gap at the bottom that some are already goners. By the end of March only 5 teams could be less than 48 points or so. Surely no team would be classed as "a goner" when only 5 points or less from safety with 14-15 games left..?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 But those 3 teams away could all have nothing to play for. Hmm fair point, although you could argue that those teams will be playing without pressure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolman Block B Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 All the top 3 home on last game of the season The heart won't take it Please be up by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lew-T Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sheffield Utd still within a shout with that running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted February 25, 2015 Report Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sheffield Utd still within a shout with that running. They have 15 games left, are 15 points behind us, have a vastly inferior goal difference and don't play us again. I don't think I'd swap places... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 There are five games between members of the current top five - call them "key games". Assuming a worst case for us (all the other teams win all their other games), there are 243 permutations of key game resuls (home/draw/away) Keeping things simple by ignoring GD and asuming that for promotion we need to beat the pints score of three of the four other teams we would need 98 points in 59 of the 243 99 in 57/243 100 in 82/243 101 in 18/243 102 in 24/243 103 in 3/243 So we are still in "get 103 points from now and we mathematically guarantee promotion". Interestingly, the three permutations all have us losing to Preston, MK dons and Preston both beating Swindon and then drawing against each other - and all three possible results in our match against Swindon. SO you heard it here first: How Swindon do in their match at AG is irrelevant in terms of how many points we need from now to mathematically guarantee promotion....our match against Preston is more significant in this (very narrow) mathematical sense 'keeping it simple' ? ; - I had stars in my eyes as i supped my tea and I mean big fat stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 They have 15 games left, are 15 points behind us, have a vastly inferior goal difference and don't play us again. I don't think I'd swap places... They are also incredibly inconsistent. Losing to Gillingham, beating us, drawing at home to Cov is a perfect illustration of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 With so few points separating most clubs, it is more likely that the relegation and play off issues may not be settled until the last few minutes of the season. Sound familiar Gasheads? As for the two automatic slots, unless all four at the top blow up, it will be between only those four. Sheff U are the only team outside the four that could catch us but it would need a catastrophic collapse by three of the four for this to happen. My guess is that no team will gain automatic promotion until 18th April at the earliest. For City there are three must not lose games, Swindon, PNE and Bradford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 I was thinking about this this morning. If we win on Saturday, only get 4 points from our three away games and then win the following three home games, that's 83 points. Not a bad total considering that's perfectly achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 forward comrades, our long march is over, a final struggle is just beginning! City to get 95 points, you heard it here first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 H to Rochdale = 3 pts = 70ptsA to L Orient = 3 = 73A to Crawley = 1 = 74A to Yeovil = 3 = 77H to Gills = 1 = 78H to Crewe = 3 = 81H to Barnsley = 1 = 82A to Oldham = 3 = 85H to Swindle = 3 = 88Personally I think 88 will be sufficient for auto promotion but we may not know it on the dayIf we go to Preston and beat them I think that will be the day we will be promoted. If we don't win it then it will be the next game. I can see us losing only once more by the end of the season and it will be against Walsall.. not in the JPT but last match of the season to get revenge for us beating them at Wembley when we are already champions and have taken our foot off the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
semblar Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 We're now down to 102 points needed to guarantee promotion, which is still to the same set of results listed above: us losing to Preston, MK dons and Preston both beating Swindon and then drawing against each other - and all three possible results in our match against Swindon Except for this very specific set of results, 100 points is enough for promotion as it is impossible otherwise for two of our rival teams to both exceed 99 points Preston can still theoretically reach 104 points, which would include beating us of course. So to better that and be champions we would need to win all the other games. Having said that, if Preston did get to 104 points then none of our other close rivals can get higher than 98 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted March 5, 2015 Report Share Posted March 5, 2015 Still on course for this prediction pre Roch.... H to Rochdale = 3 pts = 70pts A to L Orient = 3 = 73 A to Crawley = 1 = 74 A to Yeovil = 3 = 77 H to Gills = 1 = 78 H to Crewe = 3 = 81 H to Barnsley = 1 = 82 A to Oldham = 3 = 85 H to Swindle = 3 = 88 Personally I think 88 will be sufficient for auto promotion but we may not know it on the day If we go to Preston and beat them I think that will be the day we will be promoted. If we don't win it then it will be the next game. I can see us losing only once more by the end of the season and it will be against Walsall.. not in the JPT but last match of the season to get revenge for us beating them at Wembley when we are already champions and have taken our foot off the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben4BCFC Posted March 5, 2015 Report Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know Cotterill's mentality will mean we go into every game aiming to win, but our next five (Crawley A, Yeovil A, Gills H, Crewe H, Barnsley H) in isolation would be games we'd expect to win. Got to be aiming to win all 5 while the games are against lower opposition IMO. Do so, and we could be as good as promoted by April and Swindon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted March 5, 2015 Report Share Posted March 5, 2015 I know Cotterill's mentality will mean we go into every game aiming to win, but our next five (Crawley A, Yeovil A, Gills H, Crewe H, Barnsley H) in isolation would be games we'd expect to win. Got to be aiming to win all 5 while the games are against lower opposition IMO. Do so, and we could be as good as promoted by April and Swindon. Aren't ALL games against lower opposition..?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redlondon Posted March 7, 2015 Report Share Posted March 7, 2015 And that way it shall stay >>fingers crossed<< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNBT Posted March 7, 2015 Report Share Posted March 7, 2015 Wrong topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted March 7, 2015 Report Share Posted March 7, 2015 Not being complacent but is it becoming a stroll rather than a run in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted March 7, 2015 Report Share Posted March 7, 2015 Can someone please remind me how much of a threat Sheffield Utd are to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted March 7, 2015 Report Share Posted March 7, 2015 Can someone please remind me how much of a threat Sheffield Utd are to us. They will win the Average Home Attendance League? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted March 8, 2015 Report Share Posted March 8, 2015 Swindon away vs. Doncaster and Preston home vs. Peterbrough could be tough for those two. Good to see Crewe have us straight after Preston, hopefully they'll be knackered after a tough away day. As for Sheffield, they'll be lucky to stay in the play offs on their form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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