George Ferguson (Merged many times)

[BCFC Jimmer]

£410 billion a year to fund the welfare state is not a small amount.

Estimated tax avoidance and evasion don't even total half that figure.

You must be on a wind up, surely? You didn't reply to my last post because it turned out your statement was wrong.

Now you have stated another completely incorrect figure.  You should get a job for the Daily Mail.

It cost more money to bail the banks out in a 2 month period! Turn your anger at them!

Plus, a vast majority of those benefits below are not spent on immigrants!

 

 

 

[Barrs Court Red]

I didn't respond to your first post, as it was clear you didn't even read mine properly in the first place, and then try to lump in the migration to this country that we advertised for in the 60's, just justify your incorrect claim that we had huge migration because of WW2.

And like my other post, you didn't read my one on spending properly either.  

 

[marshy]

You must be on a wind up, surely? You didn't reply to my last post because it turned out your statement was wrong.

Now you have stated another completely incorrect figure.  You should get a job for the Daily Mail.

It cost more money to bail the banks out in a 2 month period! Turn your anger at them!

Plus, a vast majority of those benefits below are not spent on immigrants!

 

 

 

Well I asked my wife what she understood by the term 'welfare state'. The first two things she mentioned were health and education. This corresponds to the definition on Wiki where both are mentioned before benefits. Expenditure on Health alone was £113bn last year, education I have no idea but new arrivals have special needs which must be catered for by the education service. This brings the figure to well above the one quoted by BCR.

[Barrs Court Red]

Ps the figure of combined tax avoidance and evasion is still less than half of the benefits bill.

[Kid in the Riot]

Been some interesting stuff on the radio, the economic reporters were saying that Germany is on downward trend in population and there is likely to be 10 million less German citizens in a few years time because of falling birthrates. They actually need the immigrants and the economic opinion is that they have been clever in offering places to the young and fit who have had the will, determination and stamina to get there, as they will become employed,pay taxes and make an economic contribution. Whereas we are offering to take those from the camps nearest the borders, where the very young, old and less determind are staying, which will give us a long term cost, as the elderly will never contribute, the young adults who weren't determind to get to Europe at any cost won't be driven to succeed and the kids will need schooling etc. until they grow up and contribute. Maybe economists and Frau Merkel aren't so daft after all

Doesn't the fact Cameron's 'tough on immigration' Tory party let in an all-time record 300,000 + international migrants last year sort of completely destroy the argument that 'Britain is full' and 'we can't afford to take anymore people'?

Merkel isn't daft but nor is Cameron and he knows that to keep the wealthy happy and even more wealthy we need a supply of cheap labour which these 300,000 + migrants will help supply.

I suspect he is more reluctant to take refugees as they are more likely to be dependent on the state. You are right though that the ones we will take from the Syrian borders are less likely to be skilled, unlike the doctors, civil engineers etc that were arriving at Munich train station yesterday...

[chipdawg]

£410 billion a year to fund the welfare state is not a small amount.

Estimated tax avoidance and evasion don't even total half that figure.

That £410bn figure was from a report released in the run up to the last election by the Office for Budget Responsibility who classed education, long-term health and social housing spending in the welfare budget. Which would be fine, if they didn't also count them in the education budget or, in the case of social housing and long term health care, local government budgets. It's very useful having an independent body in charge of fiscal responsibility when you're entering purdah... but is does look great if you want to demonstrate that the welfare budget and local government budget needs to be cut whilst also showing you've spent big on schools 

fullfact.org put the welfare budget at £217bn and the NHS at £96bn. The majority of that £217bn is taken up by state pensions and in-work benefits, so looking after the elderly and covering for the fact that businesses don't pay sufficient wages for people to live on

as for tax evasion/avoidance, the figure is much disputed, though in 2012/13 HMRC estimated the 'tax gap' to be £32bn. Benefit fraud cost the UK £1.6bn in the same period , while the cost of benefits paid to all migrants averages out at around £1bn per year (though that's probably quite a bit higher now than the average given that is taken from 1995 to 2011)

Obviously you can object to the level of welfare spending regardless of what it is and who it's spent on, but to compare the total amount of money spent on welfare with the amount of tax evaded/avoided is kind of like noting that a car costs more than a pint of milk. It's two facts only really related by the fact that they are both measured in pounds and pence

[chipdawg]

Doesn't the fact Cameron's 'tough on immigration' Tory party let in an all-time record 300,000 + international migrants last year sort of completely destroy the argument that 'Britain is full' and 'we can't afford to take anymore people'?

Merkel isn't daft but nor is Cameron and he knows that to keep the wealthy happy and even more wealthy we need a supply of cheap labour which these 300,000 + migrants will help supply.

I suspect he is more reluctant to take refugees as they are more likely to be dependent on the state. You are right though that the ones we will take from the Syrian borders are less likely to be skilled, unlike the doctors, civil engineers etc that were arriving at Munich train station yesterday...

this is a point that's been bugging me  all week. Syria is, in global terms, a lower-middle class country. It's not the poorest of the poor who can afford to be trafficked to Europe, it's the middle classes and those with family abroad. There's a kind of inverse racism in people (largely well-meaning it has to be said) on both sides of the argument seeing a 'brown' face and assuming they've dragged themselves from a dusty hovel that IS blew up and that they a) need us to help them and b) that they have nothing to 'offer' us other than a hand outstretched to receive benefits and free healthcare. Obviously on an immediate level they need help so they don't drown in the med or suffocate in a locked van, but once they get where they want to go, many can fill labour gaps that have needed filling for a while. We're short of doctors and nurses and if we can find a skilled surgeon in a refugee camp or on a boat in the med then all the better for the UK

HOWEVER, is this a good thing overall? If (and we have to assume/hope that one day this is the case) IS are toppled and Syria is rebuilt, they are the exact people needed to rebuild. To stimulate the economy and staff the hospitals and the civil service, to become MPs and community leaders. If Europe strips every skilled worker or professional from Syria, then we might as well just sack it off as a bad job to be honest

to be clear as well, I apply all this to those trying to cross the med or in camps in Turkey or Lebanon. Those at Calais are not at this point in 'danger' and are perfectly capable of claiming asylum in France, from where I personally wouldn't have a problem in us taking in a share, though I'm sure others would. The issue of refugees and migration is so complex that the idea of trying to distill it to a single answer for all cases is preposterous. And no single answer is going to be perfect for anyone or any nation

[RedRock]

Merkel is daft.

There was also an item on radio this week saying that robotics, within a couple of decades, will have taken millions of human jobs - 24 hour, 7 day a week working, no strikes, sick pay etc. Now then, what is she going to do with millions, upon millions of unemployed people in Europe come 2035?

We're governed by political and religious leaders who have no long term vision or concept of the world they are creating. Totally out of touch with reality, they've not a ****ing  clue.

The Chinese Communists - whatever you think of them (and their environmental and animal welfare record is frankly worse than appalling) - at least have 30 year plans, we're lucky to have politicians who think more than 3 minutes ahead!

 

 

[BCFC Jimmer]

Ps the figure of combined tax avoidance and evasion is still less than half of the benefits bill.

Refugees wont be elligible for most of the welfare benefits people on here have mentioned anyway.

Anyway, you will all be pleased to know that I have exhausted myself on this thread so thats me for now.

[Kid in the Riot]

Merkel is daft.

There was also an item on radio this week saying that robotics, within a couple of decades, will have taken millions of human jobs - 24 hour, 7 day a week working, no strikes, sick pay etc. Now then, what is she going to do with millions, upon millions of unemployed people in Europe come 2035?

We're governed by political and religious leaders who have no long term vision or concept of the world they are creating. Totally out of touch with reality, they've not a ****ing  clue.

The Chinese Communists - whatever you think of them (and their environmental and animal welfare record is frankly worse than appalling) - at least have 30 year plans, we're lucky to have politicians who think more than 3 minutes ahead!

The same China that's heading for a population crisis of epic proportions? 

If robotics do really take off then I don't think Merkel will be to blame for millions of unemployed people!

Aside from that I agree with you that we should be more forward thinking and sustainable. But without getting too down on things let's be honest - we've  already blown it and **** ed this planet up beyond repair!

[RedRock]

But at least China is trying to address their population problem rather than acting like ostriches. 

I disagree about Merkel. That's what politicians are paid for, forward thinking. Bleeding obvious that we are going to require far fewer people in employment in the future. But some are giving her credit for addressing her demographic 'crisis'. In economic terms, she doesn't need the migrants and they are likely to become a burden not an asset to her economy now and in the future. 

 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

 

this is a point that's been bugging me  all week. Syria is, in global terms, a lower-middle class country. It's not the poorest of the poor who can afford to be trafficked to Europe, it's the middle classes and those with family abroad. There's a kind of inverse racism in people (largely well-meaning it has to be said) on both sides of the argument seeing a 'brown' face and assuming they've dragged themselves from a dusty hovel that IS blew up and that they a) need us to help them and b) that they have nothing to 'offer' us other than a hand outstretched to receive benefits and free healthcare. Obviously on an immediate level they need help so they don't drown in the med or suffocate in a locked van, but once they get where they want to go, many can fill labour gaps that have needed filling for a while. We're short of doctors and nurses and if we can find a skilled surgeon in a refugee camp or on a boat in the med then all the better for the UK

HOWEVER, is this a good thing overall? If (and we have to assume/hope that one day this is the case) IS are toppled and Syria is rebuilt, they are the exact people needed to rebuild. To stimulate the economy and staff the hospitals and the civil service, to become MPs and community leaders. If Europe strips every skilled worker or professional from Syria, then we might as well just sack it off as a bad job to be honest

to be clear as well, I apply all this to those trying to cross the med or in camps in Turkey or Lebanon. Those at Calais are not at this point in 'danger' and are perfectly capable of claiming asylum in France, from where I personally wouldn't have a problem in us taking in a share, though I'm sure others would. The issue of refugees and migration is so complex that the idea of trying to distill it to a single answer for all cases is preposterous. And no single answer is going to be perfect for anyone or any nation

To be honest I don't think most right thinking people would/should be against the UK taking their fair share of these migrants, but probably subject to certain precautions.

Firstly fully vet everybody that we are going to take in, something that in the past we have been piss poor at and secondly make the process that gives them full citizenship much longer and thirdly any major indiscretion during this period should result in jail time and repatriation whatever the gravy train parasite human rights lawyers come up with, we should offer our own far more protection than they already receive and that includes better checks on EU residents as well, it's about time we knew more about visitors to our shores.

[Red-Robbo]

Corbyn has a seven bedroom mansion in Shropshire, I'm surprised he's not offered to take a few in. Maybe he has and I've missed it.

Not strictly true. He grew up in Shropshire, where his dad was an engineer I believe.

I'm pretty sure, he lives in north London townhouse. Probably worth more than a million - a bit less than Osborne's £4m Notting Hill and £2.5m Dorset homes (plus his "constituency" home in Manchester), and David Cameron's £3m Cotswold and £1m South Kensington homes.

But whatever his background is irrelevant. 

It's such a trope of the right that if people from wealthy backgrounds care about social justice they must be "hypocrites" whereas if people from modest backgrounds do they are "envious".

It's surely rather admirable if people do not blindly follow their class interests but vote according to their conscience?

[screech]

I love this sort of thing in our country now, it's like peoples brains have turned to mash potato. Shreiks of "I'll take a family in" appear all over the social networks, Yvette Cooper demanding we take more migrants and forgetting we already have done this and our schools are already full and nobody is building anymore, our health service is in the operating theatre 24 hours a day, our police force often runs under manned and should be renamed police foreskin in honour of the cock who destroyed it.

Have these people lost their ******* minds?

We have just left our house door open night and day to let hundreds of thousands of strangers in, no id checks, no idea which country they are coming in from, anybody watched the news of what the majority of these refugees look like, brand new phones, mostly young males, fairly well dressed, hardly fleeing poverty are they.

Merkel dumped the rule book when it suited her, funny how she can pick and choose which EU laws can be waived and ignored, looks like it's the kind of club that isn't really run for it's members, looks like the rest know who's running the show and have to fall in line, some democracy that is.

Cameron made the right call and that's accept real refugees from real camps, It pains me to give that **** praise but it looks like he's the only one who hasn't lost his head and is trying to ease a little of the pressure form the Syrian border camps, the strangers in mainland europe, who knows who they are, what they are, who's side they're on, absolutely brain dead decision to just let them in without some kind of vetting procedure.

[marshy]

 

[marshy]

Not strictly true. He grew up in Shropshire, where his dad was an engineer I believe.

I'm pretty sure, he lives in north London townhouse. Probably worth more than a million - a bit less than Osborne's £4m Notting Hill and £2.5m Dorset homes (plus his "constituency" home in Manchester), and David Cameron's £3m Cotswold and £1m South Kensington homes.

But whatever his background is irrelevant. 

It's such a trope of the right that if people from wealthy backgrounds care about social justice they must be "hypocrites" whereas if people from modest backgrounds do they are "envious".

It's surely rather admirable if people do not blindly follow their class interests but vote according to their conscience?

Damn you Robbo I thought I'd got away with it. It was a cheap dig anyway. To be honest I rather like the guy, for the reason you give and also of course he is anti-EU as you confirmed for me. It's when it comes to his Economics that I would part company from him so for the time being at least, until the day of the referendum, I'll stick with Nigel.

[RedM]

Am I right in thinking if Germany lets them in and grants them EU status they are then free to move around within the EU? If so it would be naive to believe they will all stay in Germany. Also when the weather gets colder will they be looking to sleep on German streets or move to the UK for better prospects and climate. 

I heard on the radio this morning that Poland are claiming exemption from taking any of them, their reason being 'just in case' the troubles in the Ukraine flair up and they might have to take some Ukranians in. I would of thought Poland is fairly deserted due to the number of them over here and other countries?

[screech]

Am I right in thinking if Germany lets them in and grants them EU status they are then free to move around within the EU? If so it would be naive to believe they will all stay in Germany. Also when the weather gets colder will they be looking to sleep on German streets or move to the UK for better prospects and climate. 

I heard on the radio this morning that Poland are claiming exemption from taking any of them, their reason being 'just in case' the troubles in the Ukraine flair up and they might have to take some Ukranians in. I would of thought Poland is fairly deserted due to the number of them over here and other countries?

Yes, anyone that has been granted asylum would be free to move anywhere within the EU without restriction.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Am I right in thinking if Germany lets them in and grants them EU status they are then free to move around within the EU? If so it would be naive to believe they will all stay in Germany. Also when the weather gets colder will they be looking to sleep on German streets or move to the UK for better prospects and climate. 

I heard on the radio this morning that Poland are claiming exemption from taking any of them, their reason being 'just in case' the troubles in the Ukraine flair up and they might have to take some Ukranians in. I would of thought Poland is fairly deserted due to the number of them over here and other countries?

Perhaps that's the get out clause for England?, claim the same re-Scotland.

[marshy]

 

Yes, anyone that has been granted asylum would be free to move anywhere within the EU without restriction.

This is why the principle of allocation is a complete nonsense.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

This is why the principle of allocation is a complete nonsense.

and Merkel knows this of course.

But it'll keep the liberals happy.

 

 

[BCFC Jimmer]

This is why the principle of allocation is a complete nonsense.

So what? If they want to come to the UK and get a job and start paying tax that's fine by me.  They won't be eligible for any benefits so whats the problem?

It's quite arrogant for us to think they are all just going to come over here at the first opportunity.  I think a lot of them will find Germany quite fruitful.

I watched a very powerful clip on the news last night (link below).  Please watch it if you want to get an insight into why Syrians are so desperate to leave.  Please don't watch it if you are sensitive though, as it involves a child and is quite disturbing.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-09-08/badly-burned-toddler-exposes-horror-refugees-are-fleeing/

 

 

[chipdawg]

 

Yes, anyone that has been granted asylum would be free to move anywhere within the EU without restriction.

Sorry, that's just not true. If they are granted EU citizenship by another country they could come here, but that's it. We've even opted out of an agreement that having refugee status for 5 years allows free movement. Obviously the Schengen Agreement means they can realistically move between nations as they choose but we're not in the Schengen Agreement so it's irrelevant to the UK at this time

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk_eu_asylum_policy-45165

So all those refugees trying their hardest to get to Germany, want to go and live in Germany. I find it arrogant in the extreme that people think they're struggle to get into Greece/Serbia/Hungary/Macedonia, then Austria, just to enter economically bouyant, financially generous Germany is actually just a preface to the coming to the UK to claim all those benefits they're not actually entitled to, or steal those jobs they're not eligible to work in and live in those delightful detention centres such as Yarlswood. I'm sure they haven't seen enough razor wire and decaying concrete recently

 

[The Gasbuster]

So what? If they want to come to the UK and get a job and start paying tax that's fine by me.  They won't be eligible for any benefits so whats the problem?

It's quite arrogant for us to think they are all just going to come over here at the first opportunity.  I think a lot of them will find Germany quite fruitful.

I watched a very powerful clip on the news last night (link below).  Please watch it if you want to get an insight into why Syrians are so desperate to leave.  Please don't watch it if you are sensitive though, as it involves a child and is quite disturbing.

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-09-08/badly-burned-toddler-exposes-horror-refugees-are-fleeing/

 

 

I saw that last night, too.

Just dreadful that any government could do that to a child, be it intentional or not.

[BCFC Jimmer]

I saw that last night, too.

Just dreadful that any government could do that to a child, be it intentional or not.

Very few things that i see on TV upset me, but this came very close. Painful just to watch.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Slightly off topic, I had to laugh earlier this week about Auntie Harriet droning on about the legalities of the RAF drone strikes, that killed the 2 Isis butchers.

Auntie Harriet who had to be reminded by the other Miliband brother that when she applauded Ed denouncing the Iraq war, that she had actually voted for it, a war deemed by most people as illegal.

You couldn't make it up.

and next week all of the people who were against Ed until he was elected leader when they all then supported him and then against him again when he lost the election and against Corbyn during this leadership election but will support him next week until he loses the next election, when we will be I told you so by these same non conviction sycophant politicians.................................................................

[screech]

Sorry, that's just not true. If they are granted EU citizenship by another country they could come here, but that's it. We've even opted out of an agreement that having refugee status for 5 years allows free movement. Obviously the Schengen Agreement means they can realistically move between nations as they choose but we're not in the Schengen Agreement so it's irrelevant to the UK at this time

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk_eu_asylum_policy-45165

So all those refugees trying their hardest to get to Germany, want to go and live in Germany. I find it arrogant in the extreme that people think they're struggle to get into Greece/Serbia/Hungary/Macedonia, then Austria, just to enter economically bouyant, financially generous Germany is actually just a preface to the coming to the UK to claim all those benefits they're not actually entitled to, or steal those jobs they're not eligible to work in and live in those delightful detention centres such as Yarlswood. I'm sure they haven't seen enough razor wire and decaying concrete recently

 

Sorry, that's what I meant that once they were granted asylum and eventually become citizens of the EU that they are free to travel anywhere they wish.

The last part of your paragraph I find odd in the extreme, these are refugees that have been forced to flee their home because they do not feel safe, yet when they find a safe country it somehow is not enough.

 

[chipdawg]

 

Sorry, that's what I meant that once they were granted asylum and eventually become citizens of the EU that they are free to travel anywhere they wish.

The last part of your paragraph I find odd in the extreme, these are refugees that have been forced to flee their home because they do not feel safe, yet when they find a safe country it somehow is not enough.

 

Oh, I agree that they should be claiming asylum in the first country they arrive in but that's desperately unfair on Greece, Italy and Hungary. My point (which wasn't aimed at you in fairness) is that I find the assumption that every immigrants inevitable destination (after 5 to 10 years and an EU passport or immediately) is the UK is, frankly, ridiculous. 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Just one question for everybody and anybody, I haven't seen it asked anywhere before, so here goes.

if you were an Isis leader at this moment in time, what would your present tactic be?.

Mine would be simple go forth and mingle in with the other refugees and do our bidding within those nice EU countries.

 

 

[RedRock]

Oh, I agree that they should be claiming asylum in the first country they arrive in but that's desperately unfair on Greece, Italy and Hungary. My point (which wasn't aimed at you in fairness) is that I find the assumption that every immigrants inevitable destination (after 5 to 10 years and an EU passport or immediately) is the UK is, frankly, ridiculous. 

Don't think anyone is claiming every migrant will come to the UK ... but having been told by our politicians on opening up on borders for the Eastern Europeans that we wouldn't get many - two million migrants on since 2000 I'm pretty sceptical of people telling us that relaxing migration rules further won't have anything other than a major impact. 

Two million people in 15 years. That's four cities the size of Bristol needing to be built to cater for migrants alone. No wonder there is a housing (health, education and infrastructure) crisis. 

The sustainable population of the UK is a fraction the size of the existing population. We need a big debate in this country not specifically about immigration but population size and the type of country we live in. For me it's about quality not quantity of life - breathing space for nature and the end of cruel and unsustainable intensive farming. I think there's an increasing number of people who are starting to think this way - albeit a little late!