Football as a numbers game

[ApplePress]

Can't remember seeing this BBC article from last week discussed on OTIB so decided I would link it and get people's thoughts.

Will player purchase and selection as well as match day formations come down to how clubs are now more involved in analysing "Big Data" and will those clubs lose the human element of football?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37327939

 

[Coxy27]

As someone who's worked in sports betting, in particular with football, I know there's a vast armory of statistics available and it's bound to continue to increase and increasingly be used by clubs. I don't think however, that it's a game that's quite as straightforward to model as baseball for example.

What I do find interesting about this, and something I have always wondered about is the section on the game Football Manager. I'd be interested to know if any clubs or people who work for clubs really use this as a scouting tool. Can you imagine LJ sat in his office on a laptop playing a game hoping to learn who to snap up in the next transfer window? It's a funny concept, but I wouldn't be surprised if some people within the game legitimately use it.

[ExiledAjax]

40 minutes ago, Coxy27 said:

As someone who's worked in sports betting, in particular with football, I know there's a vast armory of statistics available and it's bound to continue to increase and increasingly be used by clubs. I don't think however, that it's a game that's quite as straightforward to model as baseball for example.

What I do find interesting about this, and something I have always wondered about is the section on the game Football Manager. I'd be interested to know if any clubs or people who work for clubs really use this as a scouting tool. Can you imagine LJ sat in his office on a laptop playing a game hoping to learn who to snap up in the next transfer window? It's a funny concept, but I wouldn't be surprised if some people within the game legitimately use it.

I think that when they say clubs "use Football Manager" what they mean is they use the database and scouting network that FM have established.  I remember reading an article (can't remember where I'm afraid) written by a guy who works for SI (the company that make FM).  His job was to go to every match played by a club - and every club has a guy assigned to it - and watch each player, noting how well they do at each aspect of their game.  He then reports back and the stats are updated in real time.

I think it is this network of people watching games that lower league clubs sometimes tap into.  The media then reports this as "Club X recruits player Y after scouting him on FM".

[Roe]

Some stats are relevant, the vast majority aren't. Football is far too open a game to ever be completely readable by numbers. It's like trying to predict the lottery based on past results.

[EstoniaTallinnRed]

There is a book about this subject which is called "The Numbers Game" by Chris Anderson and David Sally.  It is published by Penguin Books and should be available at your Library. I have read it and it is very interesting.

[Loco Rojo]

Watch the Football Manager documentary. There's a little bit of insight about how clubs around the world do actually use the database for initial scouting but also who the developers use to source and create the raw data - a lot of scouts/fans/people associated with teams who are involved. Very interesting documentary.  Also, if my memory is correct, I think it was Gateshead who had a fan that recommended a player from the game and they singed him for real. Turned out he wasn't as good as his stats in the game. Moral of the story is, there's nothing like good old fashioned research.

[RED4LIFE]

Iirc, there used to be somebody that posted on here that used to do the City stats for FM. Can't remember who though. 

[Robbored]

I freely admit that my knowledge of the tools used in football stats is pretty limited.

Im aware of Prozone which untill recently was the "must have" piece of equipment for any club that could afford it.

LJ has referred to certain elements of a games stats. For example how many touches a player has and the percentage of how effective they were. He's mentioned the clicks covered and so on. I guess those stats are all Prozone. 

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

The most interesting stat I read recently is that it that has (so say) been proved that the least effective thing you can do from a corner is to cross the ball into the penalty area.

[BigTone]

43 minutes ago, Robbored said:

 

Im aware of Prozac which untill recently was the "must have" piece of equipment for any BCFC fan that could afford it.

 

Have to agree with that

[BigTone]

1 hour ago, Loco Rojo said:

Watch the Football Manager documentary. There's a little bit of insight about how clubs around the world do actually use the database for initial scouting but also who the developers use to source and create the raw data - a lot of scouts/fans/people associated with teams who are involved. Very interesting documentary.  Also, if my memory is correct, I think it was Gateshead who had a fan that recommended a player from the game and they singed him for real. Turned out he wasn't as good as his stats in the game. Moral of the story is, there's nothing like good old fashioned research.

We would never be guilty of that !!  Just remember Peter Styvar & Lee Miller .............. oh hold on a minute

[Robbored]

14 minutes ago, BigTone said:

Have to agree with that

I'm not a great fan of SSRIs Tone.....

[BigTone]

2 minutes ago, Robbored said:

I'm not a great fan of SSRIs Tone.....

I thought their last album was Ok

[limping_cheetah]

22 hours ago, Coxy27 said:

As someone who's worked in sports betting, in particular with football, I know there's a vast armory of statistics available and it's bound to continue to increase and increasingly be used by clubs. I don't think however, that it's a game that's quite as straightforward to model as baseball for example.

What I do find interesting about this, and something I have always wondered about is the section on the game Football Manager. I'd be interested to know if any clubs or people who work for clubs really use this as a scouting tool. Can you imagine LJ sat in his office on a laptop playing a game hoping to learn who to snap up in the next transfer window? It's a funny concept, but I wouldn't be surprised if some people within the game legitimately use it.

Didn't Everton use the FM-database when they signed Bakayoko? 

[Oakleyson]

http://thesetpieces.com/features/football-manager-meets-moneyball-pt-1/

There are 10 parts, links at the bottom of each page ... If anyone is interested in how City might win the Champions League in 2022!!

[Pezo]

On 20/09/2016 at 16:56, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

The most interesting stat I read recently is that it that has (so say) been proved that the least effective thing you can do from a corner is to cross the ball into the penalty area.

try telling Flint that.