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The Humble Realist

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3 minutes ago, bcfcfinker said:

If it's simple, then let's have the figures.

Cotts - Kodjia 2 mil Fredericks 500k Garita 50k

LJ - Tomlin 3 mil, Magnusson 2.1 mil Moore 1.5 mil Engval 1.3mil O'Dowda 1mil Duric 1.7mil Patterson 300k Wright 600k brownhill 400k hegeler 255k

There you go.

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3 minutes ago, Londoner said:

Cotts - Kodjia 2 mil Fredericks 500k Garita 50k

LJ - Tomlin 3 mil, Magnusson 2.1 mil Moore 1.5 mil Engval 1.3mil O'Dowda 1mil Duric 1.7mil Patterson 300k Wright 600k brownhill 400k hegeler 255k

There you go.

Let's not forget about Cotts' Grey / Gayle bids , that would then be more than LJ. The money was obviously there but he chose to go for unrealistic signings.

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9 hours ago, The Humble Realist said:

Why are you still behind him ? 

This isn't a confrontational question. ..I support managers at city and normally managers are sacked just before I call for their heads...with LJ however he lost my support last Saturday..

We have all seen people ranting about why he should go. ..clearly personal abuse is well out of order but others have articulated  stats etc as to why he should leave. 

For those who support him..why should we stick ? Make the case....

For the record if he stays il still support him and hope he turns it round...as I did yesterday. ..I don't want to be proven right !

 

Coyr 

It's fair to say I have nothing factual in my thought to stick with him. Just hope I guess and a belief that stability is what will help us move forward. Sacking managers has got us to this point, I'm simply interested in where sticking with someone will get us. 

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8 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

Your post implied that Cotterill failed because SL was unwilling to give him the resources to compete. Not only was he given more resources than anyone else in L1 in 2014/15, but Lansdown was prepared to bankroll two club record bids in the summer of 2015.

Cotts himself admitted he had problems identifying any players he wanted to bring in. He kept faith in the players and system he'd played in L1. 

He had one significant disadvantage over Johnson, FFP meant he had less to spend on wages. In terms of overall spending, Lee has not even spent all the money he got in. He's carbon neutral!

Im not interested in the debate regarding SC failing, ive contributed to this thread to highlight how LJ should be doing MUCH better considering the money spent, as highlighted.

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20 minutes ago, bcfcfinker said:

The manipulation of numbers, truly a wonder to see.

To demonstrate.

I believe that when SC was sacked (Jan 14th 2016), we were in the relegation zone (2 points behind 4th from bottom I believe), City were on 21 points with a points difference of -23

At the same point in the season (around Jan 14th 2017), we are above the relegation zone, with 27 points and a points difference of -2 (maybe -3?).

So, if you want to do comparisons, at least make the like for like relevant.

Wait; what?

What "manipulation" are you on about?  That tweet is just stating a stone-cold fact.

SC final 20 league games (Preston away (15/09/15) to Preston home (12/09/16);

DLDDWLDLWDDLLWLDDLLL = 17 Points

League position/points;

22   Bristol City 26 -23 21

LJ last 20 league games (Derby home (17/09/16 to Forest away (21/01/17);

DWWWLLWDLLLWLLLLLLLL = 17 Points

League position/points;

20   Bristol City 27 -4 27

And it you want 'like-for-like' - count the first post-Cotts game to take it to a level 27 games each, with an extra 3 points and -1 goal difference to the Jan '16 league position.

I'm not sure what you took umbrage with TBH; no manipulation here or in the original tweet posted.

Both sets of stats are rubbish; neither gaffer looks good after it.

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20 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

Cotterill hadn't sold someone for 14m.

In the season he won us the L1 title, he did spend more than all his rivals.

....let's not forget he sold Baldock for £2m, which probably covered all the signings....so not a complete bankrolling by SL.

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Just now, Londoner said:

Im not interested in the debate regarding SC failing, ive contributed to this thread to highlight how LJ should be doing MUCH better considering the money spent, as highlighted.

Fine. So no need to bring an even less successful manager in the championship into the debate then.

LJ was fine on the ascendancy, but clearly has no ability to lift the team from the funk it is in now. Individual performances also seem to be declining, calling into question his coaching prowess. For those reasons, he has to go sooner rather than later.

 

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Just now, Davefevs said:

....let's not forget he sold Baldock for £2m, which probably covered all the signings....so not a complete bankrolling by SL.

We were paying higher wages though, Dave. Which is why we were just able to cherrypick the best players in that division.

I'm not tarnishing SC's reputation. It took skill to assemble that side and to bond it so quickly into a near unbeatable force. Happy days....

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Just now, Red-Robbo said:

We were paying higher wages though, Dave. Which is why we were just able to cherrypick the best players in that division.

I'm not tarnishing SC's reputation. It took skill to assemble that side and to bond it so quickly into a near unbeatable force. Happy days....

We paid higher wages (agreed) but to a smaller pool of players.  Whilst we had say 18 squad members to fit their wages into FFP, the likes of MKD and Sheffield Utd (both who bleated about our resources) were running squads of 30+.

Our strategy had a lot of logic to it....albeit relied on most of that squad being able to cope with the next level up too.  That was when it went a bit wrong.  I can see how Maguire and Gayle or Gray would've improved the eleven, and perhaps led to a couple more coming in, but it didn't happen.  Shame.

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Just now, Davefevs said:

We paid higher wages (agreed) but to a smaller pool of players.  Whilst we had say 18 squad members to fit their wages into FFP, the likes of MKD and Sheffield Utd (both who bleated about our resources) were running squads of 30+.

Our strategy had a lot of logic to it....albeit relied on most of that squad being able to cope with the next level up too.  That was when it went a bit wrong.  I can see how Maguire and Gayle or Gray would've improved the eleven, and perhaps led to a couple more coming in, but it didn't happen.  Shame.

Cotts was lucky to suffer fairly few injuries in his full L1 season, and an astounding lack of disciplinary suspensions. To get 99 points, you need loads of skill and a fair bit of luck. 

It all seems so long ago now :sad26:

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13 minutes ago, Red-Robbo said:

We were paying higher wages though, Dave. Which is why we were just able to cherrypick the best players in that division.

I'm not tarnishing SC's reputation. It took skill to assemble that side and to bond it so quickly into a near unbeatable force. Happy days....

Were we? Where is the evidence for that?

Scrap that, i think you are comparing to league 1 sides not present day squad.

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5 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

We paid higher wages (agreed) but to a smaller pool of players.  Whilst we had say 18 squad members to fit their wages into FFP, the likes of MKD and Sheffield Utd (both who bleated about our resources) were running squads of 30+.

Our strategy had a lot of logic to it....albeit relied on most of that squad being able to cope with the next level up too.  That was when it went a bit wrong.  I can see how Maguire and Gayle or Gray would've improved the eleven, and perhaps led to a couple more coming in, but it didn't happen.  Shame.

Bingo!

Electric light moment.

Not sure if you are just converted or not, but amazing how many don't get it, and just keep reverting to the "SC was stubborn" "SC had 3-5-2 all wrong" "SC was sulking" "SC is a League One manager" - without seeing the cause of the malaise after the summer of 2015.

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1 hour ago, Tipps69 said:

But on the same token, while we were in the play-offs come September, I wasn't gloating to all and sundry that we were going to get promoted!!

As I mentioned previously, I guess I'm comparing him to the mess that was left behind by SC & maybe that's wrong of me.

I just find it all a little amusing that the same people that were shouting about promotion in September & stating how much sense LJ talks & how great he is doing are the very same people that now want him sacked although by his own admission he asked for three transfer windows to be judged on & yet here we are a year later & one & a half transfer windows in & let's sack him!!

For the record, I wasn't hugely impressed when SC got the sack, was more than a little sceptical when LJ got the job & I'd be a little disappointed if he was to get the boot now!! He came here with a long term objective & I don't consider a year into that plan being long enough to be able to put much into plan!!

But what do I know? Clearly a lot less than the forum God.......

As for your £50, I'd love to be able to take you up on it but I'm not in a financial position to go making such bets.

Lovely post. Agree with it. Still can't see LJ turning it around. Next one please. Unfortunately as a club we are going round in circles. Dissaponted . Not surprised . 

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1 hour ago, WRERE said:

So you see no progress from when LJ took over to now? Not one bit? Whether that be before this bad run. The game vs Ipswitch (away) we were a shambles and recently (until yesterday) we had improved but we hadn't gotten the results we should've. Is your point that because he's spent more than 90% of teams in the division he should be higher than them? If so that's bloody stupid.  

Score a point? No. We're talking about if LJ has made any progress with the club since he's taken over , and he has. 

Managers haven't different philosophies , opinions and preferences. LJ obviously decided they didn't suit what he needed so he got rid , what's the problem? Maybe when a new manager has taken over we should tell them that certain players can't be sold because they get on so well. 

Then it's good you're not hugely involved with football. There are a lot of clubs and personell who are impressed with Johnson , maybe not in the current state but at least a year ago. 

Firstly, were not talking about what people may or may not have thought of Lj a year ago. The proof of how good/bad a coach/manager he has become is in current time.

No, I don't see any improvement under his managerial reign. But it's just not my opinion, the facts speak for themselves.

Also, I found this graph to show you how much 'progress' we are making! 

IMG_0613.PNG

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I'd love to be the club that didn't sack the manager like the norm, and it all comes good. In turn the press SSN etc all look to us as the case study for why consistency and faith in a under pressure manager is worthwhile. 

Normally when things are going badly you can pin one or two obvious causes to what the issue is. However this is where i become stumped, there seems to be lots of issues across the pitch that seem to crop up inconsitiantly which seem to point to the lack of structure/tinkering going on. Unfortunately that must sit with LJ.

Ultimately i want to keep the faith due to desire to be unique in our situation and general blind affection to the club.

I find myself every Saturday saying "one more game, we can't loose another can we"? I'm starting to think SL is feeling the same way!

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Londoner said:

Cotts - Kodjia 2 mil Fredericks 500k Garita 50k

LJ - Tomlin 3 mil, Magnusson 2.1 mil Moore 1.5 mil Engval 1.3mil O'Dowda 1mil Duric 1.7mil Patterson 300k Wright 600k brownhill 400k hegeler 255k

There you go.

Now let's put some context around this.

The crux of it (and this has already been mentioned)... it's not that SC didn't have the money made available to him (7 million available for a single player). SC just didn't manage his summer recruitment as well as LJ did (the difference between LJ and SC's tenure is that SC did not have the benefit of MA's help, however, does the evidence seem to indicate SC would have accepted MA's help?). Is this LJ's fault? No doubt he'd be getting crucified if he hadn't spent the money?

Now if your original point was that he should be doing better with the players he's recruited, the that's another thing and I'd have to agree with you. We should be doing better but I'm not going to advocate sacking him while we continue to be outside of the relegation zone.

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1 hour ago, samo II said:

Wait; what?

What "manipulation" are you on about?  That tweet is just stating a stone-cold fact.

SC final 20 league games (Preston away (15/09/15) to Preston home (12/09/16);

DLDDWLDLWDDLLWLDDLLL = 17 Points

League position/points;

22   Bristol City 26 -23 21

LJ last 20 league games (Derby home (17/09/16 to Forest away (21/01/17);

DWWWLLWDLLLWLLLLLLLL = 17 Points

League position/points;

20   Bristol City 27 -4 27

And it you want 'like-for-like' - count the first post-Cotts game to take it to a level 27 games each, with an extra 3 points and -1 goal difference to the Jan '16 league position.

I'm not sure what you took umbrage with TBH; no manipulation here or in the original tweet posted.

Both sets of stats are rubbish; neither gaffer looks good after it.

Why was the 20 game window chosen and not 26 games (I'm surprised that the last 8 game window wasn't chosen)? A cheap pop?

Why are the goal difference figures omitted during the 20 match window? League position?

Stone cold facts can be manipulated, in fact, let me use a different word, presented, anyway you want to make a point.

Agreed, things don't look good at the moment. Difference is, my patience (while wearing thin) will hold out longer than some.

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1 hour ago, bcfcfinker said:

Why was the 20 game window chosen and not 26 games (I'm surprised that the last 8 game window wasn't chosen)? A cheap pop?

Why are the goal difference figures omitted during the 20 match window? League position?

Stone cold facts can be manipulated, in fact, let me use a different word, presented, anyway you want to make a point.

Agreed, things don't look good at the moment. Difference is, my patience (while wearing thin) will hold out longer than some.

Why would any period be taken?  It was just the time period the tweet had; not really clear what your problem is.

But sure; look at the full season if you want - hell; look at the full terms each manager served, if you want.

I presented the data literally without comment; you're suggesting some type of sinister agenda - but if the aim is simply to say "let's compare the last 20 league games under the previosu and current managers" then it is entirely valid, and any inference you take from it is your own - if you think it paints LJ in a bad light; that is on you, no one else.  And it is probably because it does; it looks bad for Cotts too - so still trying to grasp the reason for the challenging nature of your response.

Also; you wanted to add more context, such as the improved goal difference and total league points?  Sure; go ahead.  

But maybe if we're in the business of context, it would also be worth noting that during Cotts final 20 matches, we took six points across the final ten compared to just three in our most recent ten games this time out.  

Anyone can see the trend this year is down; we've got worse over the last 20 games results-wise - last year we were just consistently bad.  If that makes LJ look bad; it's data - it isn't lying; it has no agenda - it's just the truth.  In a game based on winning points, we're doing crap and have got crapper at it recently.

And our goal diffence is pretty redundant here; in the same way we made the playoff final having single digit GD in 2008 because we got the points needed, if we don't get the points we require this year, we could easily go down with a half decent goal difference.  And while we've failed to get points, literally four sides with worse goals differences have leapfrogged us because we are unable to win or even draw matches against them.

I'm sorry if presenting raw data in comparison with other raw data got you riled, but if just pointing out facts; you see what you see.   

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Not going to read through all of this thread, as reading the first few posts I've got a very good idea of what the rest of it will say!

 

However, I do want to add my name to the list of LJ supporters.

I'll fully admit that it's currently difficult to defend my point of view, but take a snap shot of any season and there will always be a period where you can point fingers at something being wrong.

I just think that Lee should be given the full season, and let's judge him and where we are at the end of it. I know that people will come back and say that we can't afford to do that as relegation would be a disaster so we need to take steps to guarantee that won't happen, but there are no guarantees if we change (yet again) the manager. Personally I believe that Lee can, and will, turn this season around.

He was employed with 2 remits, firstly keep City in the Championship last season and he did that. Secondly help to build City's future with the aim of getting into the Premiership in the near future. He needs to be given the time to do that, and he hasn't had that time yet.

Steve Lansdown, Mark Ashton and Lee Johnson have a belief about where this club is going....we just need to believe in them.

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