North London Red Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 Below is a list of the points and goal difference for the teams finishing 22nd in the Championship (i.e. the highest placed of the three relegated teams) in each of the last ten seasons. The threshold for survival in each season was therefore either the same number of points and a better goal difference, or one point more and any goal difference: 2006-07: Southend 42 points, GD -33 2007-08: Leicester 52 points, GD -3 2008-09: Norwich 46 points, GD -13 2009-10: Sheffield Wednesday 47 points, GD -20 2010-11: Preston 42 points, GD -25 2011-12: Portsmouth 40 points, GD -9 2012-13: Peterborough 54 points, GD -9 2013-14: Doncaster 44 points, GD -31 2014-15: Millwall 41 points, GD -34 2015-16: Charlton 40 points, GD -40 Average for the ten seasons: 44.8 points (i.e. just under one point per game), GD -21.7. Extrapolating this season's table after 33 or 34 games, where the teams in 21st (us) and 22nd (Blackburn) are on or very close to one point per game, would suggest 46 or 47 points for this season's 'safety mark'. Where and how we're going to get those 13 or 14 points is another matter; 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in our final 12 games might just do it, provided the four losses don't include any of Wigan, Burton or Blackburn. And if Mowbray's positive impact at Blackburn (4 points from 2 games) continues and Burton continue to have reasonable form, we may need 48 or 49 points for safety, which would almost certainly mean needing to win 4 or more games. All that said, it's a dangerous game to try and predict how many points would guarantee safety - just ask Leicester or Peterborough, who went down with 52 and 54 points respectively (and in Leicester's case, a goal difference of only -3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRaw Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 Scary reading........maybe a new coach "bounce" would provide the necessary impetuous and required points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, RedRaw said: Scary reading........maybe a new coach "bounce" would provide the necessary impetuous and required points Why hasn't anybody thought of that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtonwurzel Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 46 points will be enough, teams at the bottom rarely gets a many points as predicted. Blackburn will fade again soon and complete the trio along side Wigan and Rotherham. - IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollywhyte Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 I think this year, it will be around 1 point a game required to stay up. I have us to (optimistically) finish on 47 points, one point above Burton who join Wigan and Rotherham in the relegation zone. Staying up with a final day win at home to Birmingham, afterall SL is going to allow it to go down to the wire... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ernie goodthing Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 When I have looked at the games for the bottom teams, City stay up but by only 2 or 3 points. 3 games coming in 8 days, so what should be the target? Anything less that 5 (a win and two draws) could spell real trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 26 minutes ago, North London Red said: Below is a list of the points and goal difference for the teams finishing 22nd in the Championship (i.e. the highest placed of the three relegated teams) in each of the last ten seasons. The threshold for survival in each season was therefore either the same number of points and a better goal difference, or one point more and any goal difference: 2006-07: Southend 42 points, GD -33 2007-08: Leicester 52 points, GD -3 2008-09: Norwich 46 points, GD -13 2009-10: Sheffield Wednesday 47 points, GD -20 2010-11: Preston 42 points, GD -25 2011-12: Portsmouth 40 points, GD -9 2012-13: Peterborough 54 points, GD -9 2013-14: Doncaster 44 points, GD -31 2014-15: Millwall 41 points, GD -34 2015-16: Charlton 40 points, GD -40 Average for the ten seasons: 44.8 points (i.e. just under one point per game), GD -21.7. Extrapolating this season's table after 33 or 34 games, where the teams in 21st (us) and 22nd (Blackburn) are on or very close to one point per game, would suggest 46 or 47 points for this season's 'safety mark'. Where and how we're going to get those 13 or 14 points is another matter; 3 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in our final 12 games might just do it, provided the four losses don't include any of Wigan, Burton or Blackburn. And if Mowbray's positive impact at Blackburn (4 points from 2 games) continues and Burton continue to have reasonable form, we may need 48 or 49 points for safety, which would almost certainly mean needing to win 4 or more games. All that said, it's a dangerous game to try and predict how many points would guarantee safety - just ask Leicester or Peterborough, who went down with 52 and 54 points respectively (and in Leicester's case, a goal difference of only -3). Looking back like this might give an indication of what might keep you safe, but it's just not a predictor. Probably best just to look at current position with current form (how you measure current form will depend on what you want to see). My view, bottom 8 (I think it's highly likely that the bottom spot is taken, so 7 teams need to worry) need to take note and buck up their ideas if they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUSSEL85 Posted March 2, 2017 Report Share Posted March 2, 2017 Thing is, I think we will survive, just! literally by the skin of our teeth and therefore LJ will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 On 02/03/2017 at 11:27, Ashtonwurzel said: 46 points will be enough, teams at the bottom rarely gets a many points as predicted. Blackburn will fade again soon and complete the trio along side Wigan and Rotherham. - IMO. Explain where we are going to get a total of 46 points? We would have to win several more games? Do you have any evidence? tfj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtonwurzel Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said: Explain where we are going to get a total of 46 points? We would have to win several more games? Do you have any evidence? tfj No evidence just a guess, obviously. Burton = 3 points Norwich = 1 point Wigan = 0 points Huddersfield = 1 point Brentford = 0 points Preston = 0 points Wolves = 3 points QPR = 1 point Blackburn = 1 point Barnsley = 3 points Brighton = 0 points Birmingham = 1 point Total 14 points to gives 47 total and "probable" safety - IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South stander Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 A point against Huddersfield is very optimistic and we always draw with Barnsley, so that would take us down to 44 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Ashtonwurzel said: No evidence just a guess, obviously. Burton = 3 points Norwich = 1 point Wigan = 0 points Huddersfield = 1 point Brentford = 0 points Preston = 0 points Wolves = 3 points QPR = 1 point Blackburn = 1 point Barnsley = 3 points Brighton = 0 points Birmingham = 1 point Total 14 points to gives 47 total and "probable" safety - IMO. Only 4 losses from now until the end of the season?? Sorry, but I nominate you as OTIB Happy Clapper of the month for March. No disrespect intended. tfj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 1 hour ago, South stander said: A point against Huddersfield is very optimistic and we always draw with Barnsley, so that would take us down to 44 at best. Huddersfield will rip our heads off and shit down our necks. Sorry to be so rude about it. tfj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo88 Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Ashtonwurzel said: No evidence just a guess, obviously. Burton = 3 points Norwich = 1 point Wigan = 0 points Huddersfield = 1 point Brentford = 0 points Preston = 0 points Wolves = 3 points QPR = 1 point Blackburn = 1 point Barnsley = 3 points Brighton = 0 points Birmingham = 1 point Total 14 points to gives 47 total and "probable" safety - IMO. 4 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said: Only 4 losses from now until the end of the season?? Sorry, but I nominate you as OTIB Happy Clapper of the month for March. No disrespect intended. tfj I was about to say the same thing. I second TFR's nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, pongo88 said: I was about to say the same thing. I second TFR's nomination. I see no reason for us to stop losing until they section our current manager. SL has failed in his duty of care as an employer, as Lee is obviously unwell. I see no other explanation for his team selections, and ridiculous press interviews. tfj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 I admire your optimism @Ashtonwurzel. I keep saying I think we've got enough to stay up. I reality change the word 'think' to 'hope'. The bad run was not just a blip (an effin big blip), but it has continued to some extent, especially if you take out the Rotherham win. They've stopped a team taking 3 points 9 times in 34 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtonwurzel Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Just trying to be positive ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 41 minutes ago, Ashtonwurzel said: Just trying to be positive ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Good analysis and one i think will be spot on come end of season. 14 from 12 is tough based on what we have got over the last 12 but if we can somehow get 4 from our next 2 (win/draw ?) then 10 points from our final 10 will look a lot more achievable. We can do it and in recent years we have had big balls when it has come down to 'must win' relegation 6 pointers so lets hope our balls are massive tomorrow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.