Results poor, performances not so

[Keepers Ball]

Which makes the whole thing worse.

We have proved we are a capable side. We have proved we can give anyone in this league a game

It's a case that we have been playing with the handbrake on and that handbrake is the Fraud on the touchline

 

[lager loud]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Constant changing of the side, just plain rolling the dice. The prime example of the last one was Rotherham at home IMO- he made a triple sub and through luck, judgement, whatever we won the game with the subs combining. That was not shrewd management even though it worked, that was desperation!

It certainly seemed like a last desperate roll of the dice at the time. The fact that all 3 subs were involved in the goal must mean that at one level it was a successful roll. But if O'Donnell's save hadn't gone where Djuric could reach it we might have ended up with a different result. One example of a small piece of luck going our way.

[Keepers Ball]

As I read more and more, every single post puts LJ in a bad light. Its all there to see. I just do not get why the owner cannot. 

The thought of this makes it even more depressing 

[BCFC_Dan]

Statistically speaking we seem quite good. I've only seen 2 games this season; Barnsley and Huddersfield away, in which we were very good for half an hour of the first but poor for most of the rest, and terrible for all but about 5 minutes of the second, so I can't really comment on performances as they appear to the eye, but in terms of shots faced/taken and conceded/scored, we're mid-table at worst.

What seems to be going wrong (when looked at it purely from the stats) is that we score when it doesn't matter and concede when it does. In pure numbers terms we're on a par with Derby and Brentford and better than Leeds and Reading. If we could reduce the number of shots faced per game we'd be up there with Newcastle and Brighton (source: https://experimental361.com/2017/03/05/scatter-graphics-championship-4-mar-2017/)

So the problem can't be the numbers of shots and goals but it must be the timing and situation of them. We score goals, but we score them in games where we concede more. We restrict our opponents from scoring, but we do it in games in which we don't score ourselves. We seem to have found a way of extracting the minimum amount of points from any given performance.

The guy who produced the scatter graphs above also looks at trends over a longer period and singled City out in his last post as they are something of an outlier: https://experimental361.com/2017/03/06/championship-trend-update-6-mar-2017/ His chart shows that since our poor run began our "expected goal difference" has been around 0, or par for the division, but our actual goal difference has plummeted. He, as an outsider presumably looking at only the stats, says "This seems like the sort of problem that it will sort itself out if nobody panics". However I suspect the feeling is rather different amongst those who actually watch the game.

As someone who generally only listens to the matches on the radio and follows the statistics I've mentioned, I've been waiting for months now for results to move back towards performances and they just haven't. Can we rely on it happening and happening in time to keep us up? Or are the likes of Reading and Birmingham doing something right that we're doing wrong in order to get maximal results out of very ordinary performances?

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Statistically speaking we seem quite good. I've only seen 2 games this season; Barnsley and Huddersfield away, in which we were very good for half an hour of the first but poor for most of the rest, and terrible for all but about 5 minutes of the second, so I can't really comment on performances as they appear to the eye, but in terms of shots faced/taken and conceded/scored, we're mid-table at worst.

What seems to be going wrong (when looked at it purely from the stats) is that we score when it doesn't matter and concede when it does. In pure numbers terms we're on a par with Derby and Brentford and better than Leeds and Reading. If we could reduce the number of shots faced per game we'd be up there with Newcastle and Brighton (source: https://experimental361.com/2017/03/05/scatter-graphics-championship-4-mar-2017/)

So the problem can't be the numbers of shots and goals but it must be the timing and situation of them. We score goals, but we score them in games where we concede more. We restrict our opponents from scoring, but we do it in games in which we don't score ourselves. We seem to have found a way of extracting the minimum amount of points from any given performance.

The guy who produced the scatter graphs above also looks at trends over a longer period and singled City out in his last post as they are something of an outlier: https://experimental361.com/2017/03/06/championship-trend-update-6-mar-2017/ His chart shows that since our poor run began our "expected goal difference" has been around 0, or par for the division, but our actual goal difference has plummeted. He, as an outsider presumably looking at only the stats, says "This seems like the sort of problem that it will sort itself out if nobody panics". However I suspect the feeling is rather different amongst those who actually watch the game.

As someone who generally only listens to the matches on the radio and follows the statistics I've mentioned, I've been waiting for months now for results to move back towards performances and they just haven't. Can we rely on it happening and happening in time to keep us up? Or are the likes of Reading and Birmingham doing something right that we're doing wrong in order to get maximal results out of very ordinary performances?

That's a very interesting post. I have always thought we have had better underlying numbers than results- and that isn't a defence of Johnson- but our numbers have outstripped results quite often. I would say midtable at the upper end but certainly should be doing better than we are.

This is a very interesting section of the Scatter graphics:

Quote

Reading remain an anomaly, having sustained a play-off challenge despite an average-looking attack and permissive defence, while Bristol City and Wolves have struggled despite seeming to perform well.

I dunno if it's a case of early results inflating our early performance or our recent results falling short of our recent performance. We seem to be a bit of an outlier though.

I would also say- and these stats seem to back it up- we seem one of the less efficent sides in the League. Have done for a long stage of this season.