iamalagerdrinker Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I can't help but start thinking the closer it gets to Saturday that we will somehow mess up and still be relegated on the last game of the season. Please help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 No bookie will give you odds on us going down. We are 12th in the form table - all teams below us in the table are in worse form. To go down we need every team below us to do brilliantly. In particular we need Blackburn or Birmingham to do something spectacular. They won't. Our goal difference is much better than those below us - so is effectively a bonus point. The below is based on Experimental361's simulation mega computer - it's based on running 10,000 simulations of each of tomorrow's matches. It shows that he thinks we have a 40% chance of still being 17th after tomorrow. More importantly Blackburn have a 78% chance of still being 22nd. If that's the case then we are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 30 minutes ago, iamalagerdrinker said: I can't help but start thinking the closer it gets to Saturday that we will somehow mess up and still be relegated on the last game of the season. Please help. Stop drinking lager as the chemicals in it, will only poison your brain the longer you drink it! Even a confirmed pessimist like me, proven to be after sixty seven years supporting City, believes that the odds in favour of us staying up are very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartibartfast Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 39 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: No bookie will give you odds on us going down. In reality, THAT'S all you need to know ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 We need 2 losses with a GD of -8 AND Blackburn to get 2 wins with a GD of +9 to overtake us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 44 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: No bookie will give you odds on us going down. We are 12th in the form table - all teams below us in the table are in worse form. To go down we need every team below us to do brilliantly. Actually that's not true. Burton and QPR only need 1 and 2 points respectively to be above us if we lose both our matches. Of course Birmingham would need to beat Huddersfield (as well as beating us) and Blackburn would also need to win both games, but the interesting one is QPR vs Forest. Still imagining for a moment that we lose both our matches (and of course I hope we don't), if Forest beat QPR, then they would need one more point to be sure of finishing above us, and QPR would probably need to win their last match. If QPR beat Forest then they would finish above us and Forest would need to win their last match to have a chance of finishing above us on goal difference. If they draw, then they could both finish above us: QPR would need a point and Forest would still need to win their last match. Forest's last match (home to Ipswich) looks a better bet than QPR's (away to Norwich), so it's a close call which is the best result for us tomorrow. Perhaps given that Forest are likely to win their last match in any case, it would be better if they beat QPR tomorrow. The big question for me is whether Huddersfield and Villa turn up tomorrow. They both have reasons for taking their foot off the gas, which is worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bar BS3 Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Tammys Scan said: We need 2 losses with a GD of -8 AND Blackburn to get 2 wins with a GD of +9 to overtake us. No we/they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, Tammys Scan said: We need 2 losses with a GD of -8 AND Blackburn to get 2 wins with a GD of +9 to overtake us. Not so. If we had two losses with -6 then Blackburn would need two wins of +4. Or -5/+5; -4/+7, etc. etc. so if we lose 4-0 to Brighton and by one goal to Brum, Blackburn need to win their two matches by five goals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I would be surprised if Blackburn won both. Villa still have a lot of quality and Brentford steamroll teams at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London expats Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, Tammys Scan said: We need 2 losses with a GD of -8 AND Blackburn to get 2 wins with a GD of +9 to overtake us. No we are 9 goals better off than Blackburn, We are -6 Blackburn -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 4 minutes ago, Super said: I would be surprised if Blackburn won both. Villa still have a lot of quality and Brentford steamroll teams at home. I agree, and even if they did it's hard to imagine them winning the two matches with a combined goal difference of anything better than +4. This suggests that the best they are likely to do is to finish on 51 points with a goal difference of -11, which then suggests that we could afford to lose our last two matches with an aggregate goal difference of -5, given that we have scored ten more goals then Blackburn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 6 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said: The big question for me is whether Huddersfield and Villa turn up tomorrow. They both have reasons for taking their foot off the gas, which is worrying. As will Brighton hopefully. I get you're more correct than I was. I was just summarising our position. I get that the maths means we can technically still go down. However; we're not going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dolman Pragmatist Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, ExiledAjax said: As will Brighton hopefully. I get you're more correct than I was. I was just summarising our position. I get that the maths means we can technically still go down. However; we're not going down. I think you're more likely to see a Brighton team in fiesta mood, like us against Walsall two years ago, and I remember them at Ashton Gate, far and away the best team we've seen all season I think. We will need to be at our very best to keep them in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Colby-Tit Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Can anyone explain why a bookie would not give odds on City going down now, if they think we won't? I would understand not giving odds on a dead cert, but surely they would stand to make money from giving odds for City? Or am I just a thick ####? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London expats Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Huddersfield will want at least a draw Saturday to secure 2nd leg home advantage in the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Sir Colby-Tit said: Can anyone explain why a bookie would not give odds on City going down now, if they think we won't? I would understand not giving odds on a dead cert, but surely they would stand to make money from giving odds for City? Or am I just a thick ####? I was thinking the same tbf! About the bookies, not your IQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London expats Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, The Dolman Pragmatist said: I think you're more likely to see a Brighton team in fiesta mood, like us against Walsall two years ago, and I remember them at Ashton Gate, far and away the best team we've seen all season I think. We will need to be at our very best to keep them in check. Agree pray the results go our way I would hate a repeat of Walsall 8-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finbarr_in_z Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 49 minutes ago, cidered abroad said: Stop drinking lager as the chemicals in it, will only poison your brain the longer you drink it! Even a confirmed pessimist like me, proven to be after sixty seven years supporting City, believes that the odds in favour of us staying up are very good. But you're talking odds. I'm rubbish at gambling. I'm good at maths. Maths says we can still go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Septic Peg Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Sir Colby-Tit said: Can anyone explain why a bookie would not give odds on City going down now, if they think we won't? I would understand not giving odds on a dead cert, but surely they would stand to make money from giving odds for City? Or am I just a thick ####? You are correct. But the odds would more than likely be in the higher hundreds. Let's say it's 800/1 we go down. If someone puts a tenner on that, that's an £8k payout. If someone put a ton on it, it's an £80k payout. Bookies won't offer the odds now for two reasons. Mainly, there will be few takers. The majority of pundits/experts/bookies agree we are safe so fans in agreement won't be interested in betting on us going down. And also, on the chance they did offer odds, the payouts would be high if it did happen even on a small bet like a tenner, which is exactly what bets they would be getting. A small number of tiny bets. Not worth their time in processing/paying out etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unan Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Looks like I'm looking at the wrong table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Colby-Tit Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Septic Peg said: You are correct. But the odds would more than likely be in the higher hundreds. Let's say it's 800/1 we go down. If someone puts a tenner on that, that's an £8k payout. If someone put a ton on it, it's an £80k payout. Bookies won't offer the odds now for two reasons. Mainly, there will be few takers. The majority of pundits/experts/bookies agree we are safe so fans in agreement won't be interested in betting on us going down. And also, on the chance they did offer odds, the payouts would be high if it did happen even on a small bet like a tenner, which is exactly what bets they would be getting. A small number of tiny bets. Not worth their time in processing/paying out etc. Cheers Peg, you could have saved some time and just confirmed that I am indeed a thick ####! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Septic Peg Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, Sir Colby-Tit said: Cheers Peg, you could have saved some time and just confirmed that I am indeed a thick ####! When I said you were correct, I meant in respect of they would stand to make money! Lolz. I don't think you are a thick #### good Sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Brentford have one reason to take foot of gas. Two perhaps: Firstly they will again be all in v Fulham this week- them and QPR are their two Big West London rivals, to push one closer to the drop they hope and to maybe damage play off hopes of another would be lovely for them! As such if QPR and Blackburn are still alive in the relegation hunt, they may go easy...not be too bothered, Fulham and QPR are/have been their two Cup finals- Blackburn at home, who cares? It's all academic anyway- we will be fine regardless and may well beat Birmingham last game too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacki Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 I think we have enough about us not to get hammered in our last 2 games. Even if we lost both of our games 2-0, that would still leave Blackburn having to win their two games with a goal difference of +6 over the two games to go above us. They're a poor side and they have 2 tough games to go. Add that to the fact that we have 4 other teams between us and the zone, and a better GD than all of them, and we really should be just fine. Will be nice if it's all put to bed once and for all tomorrow though so we can all stop fretting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flagon Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 2 hours ago, Tammys Scan said: We need 2 losses with a GD of -8 AND Blackburn to get 2 wins with a GD of +9 to overtake us. But even if that happened I don't think it would be us, it would be one of the other teams behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meryl Goodrum Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 4 hours ago, iamalagerdrinker said: I can't help but start thinking the closer it gets to Saturday that we will somehow mess up and still be relegated on the last game of the season. Please help. I know what you mean, but it's the result of a long, miserable season. Hang in there... we're staying up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted April 28, 2017 Report Share Posted April 28, 2017 Leaving Blackburn aside for a minute lets not forget that Birmingham also effectively have to win both their games to finish above us since we`re playing them. If they were to draw and we lose tomorrow they would need to beat us by something like 8 goals (less what we let in at Brighton) and even if they win tomorrow they would still need to beat us as a draw would still leave them a point behind us. I`m confident we`ll be fine by 5:00 tomorrow. The interesting game for me is QPR v Forest. I could see QPR coming very close to going down if they lose it and Forest are in real trouble if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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