What were the key factors that turned the season around?

[bcfcnick]

Well, hands up, I was one who wanted LJ out and John Pemberton put in for the end of the season.   I got it wrong as many of us did.  I have to give credit to both Steve Lansdown for holding his nerve and for LJ for making decisions that turned the latter end of the season into promotion winning form.   I think they were brave as well as stubborn and the way they handled the immense pressure shows a strenth of character that is definitely a plus for the manager and owner.  No doubt our luck turned as well.

Clearly Lee made mistakes early on and changed things so I hope he has learned and taken on board the things that he changed and worked.  Anyway, it's interesting to look at what did change and assess what were the most influential changes. In no particular order I'd go for these things :-

1) Playing 4-4-2.  Matty Taylor may not have set the division alight with goals but he has given a balance to the team, provided defensive balance in a way that Lee Tomlin for all his talent can't do, added assists and helped bring the best out of Tammy allowing to add some match winning goals.  We do need a 15 to 20 goal a season striker next season to replace Tammy otherwise we will struggle as there aren't enough goals from midfield to compensate.

2) Vastly improved defensive displays.  The fact is John Pemberton was the defensive coach and things improved when he left so was he the issue. I thought he was merely coaching instructions from LJ but that looks not to eb the case.  I felt previously the full-backs were required to play too narrow and this was obviously under instruction.  That changed after JP left and Jamie McAllister came into the coaching set-up.  The improvement performances from Mark Little and Joe Bryan can't just have been a coincidence.  JB went from liability in this position to back to a potential Premiership player and Mark Little went from lame donkey to athletic race horse.  I think it was a mentality issue and they were allowed to get forward and they had better cover in front. 

3) it wasn't just these two who upped their game. Jamie Paterson and Josh Browning excelled and provided great balance for defence and attack.  It appeared to be a mixture of a better team spirit, a settled team and a common sense tactical change to 4-4-2.

4) A settled side at long last.

5) The defensive improvement and more cohesive team play coincided with Jamie McCallister supporting LJ with first team coaching.  He must have had a significant influence.  I think the fact that he was a long time friend of LJ meant there was a better spirit within the coaching staff that transferred to the team as a whole.

6) Marlon Pack and Corey Smith restored their partnership and provided a well balanced solid midfield although ideally we do need a goal scoring midfielder.

7) Much as I like Lee Tomlin, LJ focused on getting a solid team set-up rather than trying to accomodate an undoubtedly talented player in positions and with duties that are alien to getting the best out of him.  The lesson is if we do sign another flair player they have to be a bit more of a team player rather than an individual mercurial talent who is not the easiest to manage.

8) The return of frank Fielding.  I think the foreign competion goalkeepers were poor signings and FF, as well as being a very competent keeper, has a great team ethic and the defence were much more comfortable in play and communication with him in goal.

So a lot of things changed and all for the better.  We won't know if it was some fresh inspiration from LJ at a timely moment or if sound advice from Jamie McAllister was very influential. Whatever happend, it worked.

So let's hope LJ has learned form this and he will get a settled side and formation from game one next season.  It seems he has inherited his father's trait of going on long winning runs and, unfortunately, lengthy losing streaks as well.  He did that at Barnsley as well. He is, as Steve Lansdown points out, a young manager who has made mistakes and is still learning but who has a lot of characteristics in a manager that SL likes.  Next season will show whether LJ has taken on board the lessons on this season. 

For all the new positives it is a fact that we won't have our consistent match winner next season so a key recruit will be a goal scorer who maintians the balance in the team in the way Tammy has.  It's too much to hope we can get a Tammy mark 2  but it will be an important recruitment decision.  Tammy has shown that most natural goal scorers can go through the levels and maintain their goal scoring ratio as it's usually a born art of being in the right place at the right time.  The hope is that another natural goal scorer, Shawn McCoulsky, can follow in Tammy's boots and also score goals at higher levels.  He cetainly deserves a pre-season chance although obviously another quality signing is essential as we will be losing Aaron Wilbraham as well as Tammy.

 

[Robbored]

You've answered your own question there Nick.......

btw, Shawn McCoulsky is banging em in lower down but so was John Akinde...........

[Mr Roper]

Good post nick ,with lots of very good points .

[Super]

2 up front and a settled team.

[RedM]

I'm totally convinced it was Preston away. The whole refund thing was the kick up the backside EVERYONE needed.

[SecretSam]

Winning games.  That seemed to do the trick.

Oh, and not building the team around one player...

[GrahamC]

Think the OP has already covered more than 90% of it.

I would just add one more, Bailey Wright, who has given us the second no frills CB we needed and unlike so many that we signed, already had a track record as a proven Championship player.

I am a very big fan of Hordur but this improved us significantly.

[Floatn Over]

Really good summary that.  My view is a settled team, Patto, Frankie, 442, Matty and of course Flinty (tackling, pointing, organising, shouting including at himself !)

[Sixtyseconds]

Lee Johnson was looking out across the marina in Portishead.

Two seagulls flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Two minutes later.

Two seagulls flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Lee continued to look into the sky

Two Cormorants flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Two minutes later.

Two Pink elephants flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

A sign thought Lee.

[the red rules]

Very well written although agree with the Bailey Wright comment who I think has benefited Aden Flint.

[Steve Watts]

1 hour ago, Robbored said:

You've answered your own question there Nick.......

btw, Shawn McCoulsky is banging em in lower down but so was John Akinde...........

Tinman has already said that McCoulsky is a special talent, but nowhere near ready for a Championship start yet.  He needs to be used correctly to ensure his development continues.  I've a feeling he'll be spending a season in Cheltenham come August.  Natural next step for the lad.  If they hadn't been promoted I'd have said Plymouth, but I wonder if league 1 is a step too much at the moment.

[Welshback]

Personally, I think LJ found a winning side more by luck than judgement. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the spine of the recent team is from the L1 Champions, who have been playing for each other.

I'm not sure it's true that our full backs have been defending much better, but the team on the whole has been.

Keeping Marlon Pack in the side has been crucial, as have the performances of Jamie Paterson in particular.

 

[SecretSam]

1 hour ago, Robbored said:

btw, Shawn McCoulsky is banging em in lower down but so was John Akinde...........

How old is McCoulsky?  I'm a bit of a fan of the "if he's good enough..." model

[And Its Smith]

1. Return of Smith to midfield

2. Dropping low energy players like Tomlin and Hegeler

3. Playing two strikers

4. Form of Paterson as a consistent, reliable ball carrier and outlet. Unlike Tomlin

5. Players waking up to the relegation battle 

 

[And Its Smith]

24 minutes ago, Welshback said:

Personally, I think LJ found a winning side more by luck than judgement. And I don't think it's a coincidence that the spine of the recent team is from the L1 Champions, who have been playing for each other.

I'm not sure it's true that our full backs have been defending much better, but the team on the whole has been.

Keeping Marlon Pack in the side has been crucial, as have the performances of Jamie Paterson in particular.

 

The standout players have been new signings and then Smith and Flint. I think it's a myth that the League one players are mainly to thank.

[ExiledAjax]

2 hours ago, bcfcnick said:

4) A settled side at long last.

This. This allows everything else to happen.

I think that what this league rewards most is consistency and clarity.  Teams that succeed come into a season with a clear plan, a method to achieve that plan and then they remain consistent in their application of it. 

Where I think we went wrong this season was that we came into it not having a clear plan of how to succeed on the pitch.  LJ had not worked out his best team or really sorted the best formation.  Even in Aug/Sept he would change one or two things each game.  We got away with it for a bit but then the luck ran out.

The trouble was that once results didn't go quite so well - Cardiff and QPR away I'm looking at you - LJ panicked a little, a few strong personalities began complaining and he reacted poorly.  Instead of sticking to his guns he fiddled about even more. He tweaked things a little, but not in the manner that some thought he should.  This left players and fans feeling stranded, vulnerable, and unsure of their role at the club.  Why this happened I do not know...I have a theory that there may essentially have been too many cooks in the tactical kitchen but that is pure speculation.

Anyway, that unsettled feeling was compounded by some bad luck. Derby, Reading, Wolves, and Cardiff were all games where we could and should have taken points.  But we didn't.  

Then eventually, a few things changed.  LJ settled into 442 with a consistent side.  He brought in Taylor and Cotterill and found the strength to leave Tomlin on the bench, he trimmed out some deadwood by shipping Engvall out.  Frankie returned in goal (honestly I think Giefer has to go) and LJ settled on a good hard-working side that knows what it's job and purpose is.  Also, Pembo left.  Whilst that's a shame it does seem that JMc has a better working relationship with LJ.  Crucially consistency was maintained by SL when he stuck by LJ and just tweaked a few other things instead of ripping the whole plan to pieces.  Essentially SL managed to replace the bathwater without throwing the baby out as well.

All of this seems to have brought some clarity and steadiness to the backroom.  That in turn has allowed clarity and steadiness to return to the pitch.  And so a settled side has appeared.  That has allowed a consistency to arise which has been rewarded with a tightened defence, better goals scored, and points on the board.  In short, we worked out our identity and consistently used it to great effect.

The challenge now is to develop the squad without losing that clear and consistent vision. 

Sorry for the essay.

[ExiledAjax]

36 minutes ago, SecretSam said:

How old is McCoulsky?  I'm a bit of a fan of the "if he's good enough..." model

20

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawn_McCoulsky

[Robbored]

A year older than Tammy.....

['Orns]

I'm with @RedM - Preston was such a brutal kick in the balls that it was sink or swim time. I haven't looked back at anything I posted on here during / after the game, or on twitter, but I can remember thinking that was it. We were screwed, and my 14 year old was about to see what her old man was like on Derby day. Whatever was said after that game has worked, as much as I'm still to be convinced that LJ is the man long term (and I want him to be, more than anything) has worked. Fair play to him

Coupled with a settled team, Taylor coming in, Pato playing well - all the other things mentioned on here. But 5-0 at Preston on a Tuesday night....not acceptable

About 6 weeks ago I done one of those final table calculator things, I had City surviving comfortably, mainly due to the run in's of the teams around us. I'm amazed I was proved right, but thankful

 

[downendcity]

39 minutes ago, RedDave said:

1. Return of Smith to midfield

2. Dropping low energy players like Tomlin and Hegeler

3. Playing two strikers

4. Form of Paterson as a consistent, reliable ball carrier and outlet. Unlike Tomlin

5. Players waking up to the relegation battle 

 

6. Playing a settled team

7 Getting some decent results

8 As a result of 6 & 7 players confidence growing game by game.

From the end of October we had the reverse of 6, 7 and 8.

[downendcity]

1 hour ago, Sixtyseconds said:

Lee Johnson was looking out across the marina in Portishead.

Two seagulls flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Two minutes later.

Two seagulls flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Lee continued to look into the sky

Two Cormorants flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

Two minutes later.

Two Pink elephants flew by.

Followed by another four.

Then another four.

A sign thought Lee.

So we should expect a seagull, cormorant and pink elephant among our summer signings.

[22A]

I have heard it said that performances and then results improved after Pemberton departed the scene. However that doesn't explain the Brentford & PNE games.

[MetzRed]

A thorough analysis and a good read but the question of luck deserves emphasising. I don't think as a reasonably talented Championship club that you can lose that many games on the trot without having luck go against you for at east some of it.

The sort of short-termism that characterises a lot of football clubs often forgets that you don't have total control over the outcome once the whistle blows and the ball starts pinging around the pitch, a deflection or slip could make all the difference - you just never know. So kudos, in my opinion, to the board for seeing through some bad results to see that we've got a reasonable set up and are a decent side on our day. We've been creating chances throughout the season, enough to have won a lot more games than we did.

I highly recommend experimental361.com for more context and stats. You can decide how much store you want to put in the numbers but their end of season form graph that'll be up on Monday I imagine will show a city side that consistently did worse than you would expect for the performances that they put in.

Which is not to say that there havent been days where we havent been good enough. Even as recently as Brentford we just didn't turn up. 

[GrahamC]

46 minutes ago, Robbored said:

A year older than Tammy.....

Which proves absolutely nothing, because so is Garita.

It is how good you are, not how old. On so many levels Tammy is simply a phenomenon, there is no reason at all to suggest either of the other two are.

At the other end of the spectrum Wilbraham has fought off Father Time two years running now, on paper at his age he should be useless, but actually he has been invaluable.

McCoulsky has also been scoring goals at the sixth level of English football, Akinde at the fourth.

No one should need reminding we currently play at the second...

[Robbored]

GrahamC - I completely agree with your point about age. 

But unfortunately it's a "whoosh" for you............

[cider-manc]

I got a new phone at the end of  October- I had it pinched on a stag do in February. 

Coincidence that results dipped when I purchased it and then revived when I no longer had it?

I think not.

By the way result have gone i imagine the new owner is probably a Birmingham City fan.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, MetzRed said:

end of season form graph that'll be up on Monday I imagine will show a city side that consistently did worse than you would expect

Agreed, even during November and December 361's stuff was showing that we were performing well but just not quite closing games out.  I suspect his model will have us somewhere around 9/10th.  After seeing what he's done with the L1 post-season I am definitely looking forward to Monday's stat dump.

[MarkRed!]

Why did you get it wrong BCFC Nick? You did not.  LJ is the luckiest manager in the EFL. He has survived by the skin of his teeth.  He has mismanaged the team given the resources at his disposal and led us to a club record series of defeats. He has alienated some of the fan base and led to a level of discontent that will take time to repair. During our poor run there were times when he did not even acknowledge the fans at the end of the game. His press conferences defied logic and his digging out of the players is and remains a concern.  We have only secured our survival last week and let's face it, the teams going down have been dire. Players have come and gone at a whim and formations changed weekly and on an in game basis.....Take Patterson - he is being lauded as a 25 mill player - where was he for the majority of the season? I could go on. 

We can all speculate but something happened after the second international break to shatter confidence and plainly there were fractions within the coaching set up once Holden was appointed. Pemberton's departure is now explainable and surely it cannot be coincidence that we have now looked more settled as a team. The use of the same players by and large in our recent run also adds to the theory that Johnson did not know his best 11 until the shite was hitting the fan.  

To LJ's credit something turned because the current run is promotion form. He deserves to be given a further chance and I personally thought he was a dead man walking. Credit to him, because the pressure he must have been under was likely to be immense.  However, we should not be patting ourselves on the back for a job well done.... questions have to be asked to prevent this from happening again. I recall when McInnes saved us from relegation that he was lauded... he was sacked and we were relegated the following season. None of us want to see that.....

[BRISTOL86]

Can't really add much to what you've said! In a nutshell, for me:

1) Matty Taylor and 442. He is just the absolute perfect foil for Abraham. 

2) Finally realising that Tomlin isn't a man to build a team around (no slight on LJ - we all thought he was)

3) Settled team and formation, and the confidence that brings

Honourable mention for Mark Little who has really stepped up to the plate and improved dramatically during our recent spell of good form. 

[reddoh]

1 hour ago, cider-manc said:

I got a new phone at the end of  October- I had it pinched on a stag do in February. 

Coincidence that results dipped when I purchased it and then revived when I no longer had it?

I think not.

By the way result have gone i imagine the new owner is probably a Birmingham City fan.

Can you tell us the make and model so no other city fan gets one? or if they do they lose it before next season starts