Stat Attack - Experimental361 Season Summary

[ExiledAjax]

Below is a summary of how Experimental 361 sees our season.  I think it's interesting that his stats pretty much prove what a large number of people think about our performances.  In short E361 and his number-crunching machine reckons that we have potential but have largely underperformed this season.  The graphs and images below show that we have been creating chances - but failing to finish them.  Personally I am encouraged by this.  With a few signings, a bit of luck, a clear vision and consistent application I think we could cruise to an upper-mid-table finish and all be on the beach come April 2018.

 

Full Champ breakdown here: https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/championship/

 

Attack

 

We needed an average of 11 shots per goal - putting us lower mid-table, and below teams like Blackburn, Forest, and Wolves.  Having said that we did keep defences and goalies busy (although that ludicrous Rotherham game probably affected this a bit).  E361 summarises it as "Bristol City created a similarly impressive volume of shots but struggled to convert them."

Defence

 

In defence we look soft.  13.5 shots faced per match with teams on average only needing to shoot 9.5 times in order to score against us.  We're not as soft as some but there's no doubt that we need to at least try to limit the number of shots faced - which is a job for midfield and the wingbacks - if we're to avoid those heartbreaking last minute losses.

 

Performance

 

This image needs a little explanation.  in short the blue line shows our actual goal difference over time.  The red line shows the goal difference that E361's numbers predicted we "should" have achieved based on the number and quality of the shots we have taken and faced.  The shaded area is the difference.  Therefore the shaded area can be read as an indication of whether we have been under or over achieving.  E361 summarises this season as "Consistently underachieved this season despite respectable performances – it seems only fair that they avoided the drop." Basically our performaces indicate that we should have had better results - Derby, Newcastle, Cardiff, Reading, Sheff Wed etc. It bears out the comments that although we lost/drew matches we were still actually performing ok.

 

 

Goalscorers

 

Here's something I bet you didn't realise - we relied heavily on Mr Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham for our goals.  Also, Bobby Reid missed a whole lot of chances and really, really, needs to work on his finishing over the summer.  The fact that Taylor, Djuric, Wilbs and Engvall don't even feature says a whole lot more i think.  Number one priority this summer is a goalscorer.

General Trend

I was never worried that we'd go down.  I'm a big believer in E361's stuff and at no point in the season did he think we had more than a 36% chance of being relegated.  Even after the losing run his number's still reckoned we had less than a 20% chance of going down. Yes the pre-season prediction was wildly off but on the whole I think you can see that we have the potential of a good squad.

"Having finished last season in relatively good shape, the model was expecting a solid mid-table finish from the Robins this time around. However after a bright start that seemed to bear this out, the wheels started to fall off in November and the slide took a long time to arrest. Strangely the balance of chances created remained relatively healthy during this bad run, so it’s tempting to conclude that the problem is psychological."

Here's to next season and the challenge for the top-10.

[phantom]

Anyone else bamboozled ?

[Fat Cigar]

I bloody love this post. Thanks! I'm going to come back to it later and try and take it in properly! 

[ExiledAjax]

3 minutes ago, phantom said:

Anyone else bamboozled ?

Ha, It's just an attempt to put some numbers and logic to the often emotion-led opinions of football fans.  Granted it's not to everyone's taste...but some people love a spreadsheet.

[Fat Cigar]

Couple of points: yes, Bobby Reid's finishing is atrocious. Why he got dropped. Then brought back and confidence shot. He has missed a number of really good chances either side of this.

The fact that we only got thrashed once all season (compared to 7-8?? times last) tells its own story. Most defeats by one goal. However, that shouldn't deceive us that we played well in a lot of these games. We were poor, two-thirds of the time. At least.

I think I'm right in saying that Tammy's conversion rate was also impressive.  

[phantom]

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ha, It's just an attempt to put some numbers and logic to the often emotion-led opinions of football fans.  Granted it's not to everyone's taste...but some people love a spreadsheet.

Looks good - sadly over my head 

[Welcome To The Jungle]

13 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

I bloody love this post. Thanks! I'm going to come back to it later and try and take it in properly! 

Same. Hard to properly analyse stats when your boss keeps walking past

['Orns]

I'm in the 'bloody love' camp as well. Love stuff like this, gonna have a proper study later

Thanks @ExiledAjax

[Major Isewater]

32 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Below is a summary of how Experimental 361 sees our season.  I think it's interesting that his stats pretty much prove what a large number of people think about our performances.  In short E361 and his number-crunching machine reckons that we have potential but have largely underperformed this season.  The graphs and images below show that we have been creating chances - but failing to finish them.  Personally I am encouraged by this.  With a few signings, a bit of luck, a clear vision and consistent application I think we could cruise to an upper-mid-table finish and all be on the beach come April 2018.

 

Full Champ breakdown here: https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/championship/

 

Attack

 

We needed an average of 11 shots per goal - putting us lower mid-table, and below teams like Blackburn, Forest, and Wolves.  Having said that we did keep defences and goalies busy (although that ludicrous Rotherham game probably affected this a bit).  E361 summarises it as "Bristol City created a similarly impressive volume of shots but struggled to convert them."

Defence

 

In defence we look soft.  13.5 shots faced per match with teams on average only needing to shoot 9.5 times in order to score against us.  We're not as soft as some but there's no doubt that we need to at least try to limit the number of shots faced - which is a job for midfield and the wingbacks - if we're to avoid those heartbreaking last minute losses.

 

Performance

 

This image needs a little explanation.  in short the blue line shows our actual goal difference over time.  The red line shows the goal difference that E361's numbers predicted we "should" have achieved based on the number and quality of the shots we have taken and faced.  The shaded area is the difference.  Therefore the shaded area can be read as an indication of whether we have been under or over achieving.  E361 summarises this season as "Consistently underachieved this season despite respectable performances – it seems only fair that they avoided the drop." Basically our performaces indicate that we should have had better results - Derby, Newcastle, Cardiff, Reading, Sheff Wed etc. It bears out the comments that although we lost/drew matches we were still actually performing ok.

 

 

Goalscorers

 

Here's something I bet you didn't realise - we relied heavily on Mr Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham for our goals.  Also, Bobby Reid missed a whole lot of chances and really, really, needs to work on his finishing over the summer.  The fact that Taylor, Djuric, Wilbs and Engvall don't even feature says a whole lot more i think.  Number one priority this summer is a goalscorer.

General Trend

I was never worried that we'd go down.  I'm a big believer in E361's stuff and at no point in the season did he think we had more than a 36% chance of being relegated.  Even after the losing run his number's still reckoned we had less than a 20% chance of going down. Yes the pre-season prediction was wildly off but on the whole I think you can see that we have the potential of a good squad.

"Having finished last season in relatively good shape, the model was expecting a solid mid-table finish from the Robins this time around. However after a bright start that seemed to bear this out, the wheels started to fall off in November and the slide took a long time to arrest. Strangely the balance of chances created remained relatively healthy during this bad run, so it’s tempting to conclude that the problem is psychological."

Here's to next season and the challenge for the top-10.

I think the key issue is summed up by the last four words. ' the problem is psychological ' .

We need more warriors and winners in the team . It could be that the DNA we are looking for is ' nice young lads who could go on to play for Arsenal ' and not ' hardnosed winners who could go on to play for Chelsea ' .

Is our  head coach ' too nice ' ?

[Major Isewater]

34 minutes ago, phantom said:

Anyone else bamboozled ?

My boozle is completely bammed .

[Fat Cigar]

Just now, Major Isewater said:

I think the key issue is summed up by the last four words. ' the problem is psychological ' .

We need more warriors and winners in the team . It could be that the DNA we are looking for is ' nice young lads who could go on to play for Arsenal ' and not ' hardnosed winners who could go on to play for Chelsea ' .

Is our  head coach ' too nice ' ?

A fair(ish) point. The squandering leads definitely points to a mental fragility. And simply a case that we forgot how to win. Winning breads winning. 

You know what though, I don't think I'd class Johnson as too nice or weak or mentally fragile. To put up what he's had to and turned things around when it mattered takes guts and strength. I'm not a "fan," but I do admire how he's kept us up. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I have seen similar through the season, always been quite convinced our underlying numbers are midtable, lower midtable.

Too nice? Maybe- would say too fragile for large parts of the season a bigger problem! Perhaps the two feed into each other.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, Fat Cigar said:

A fair(ish) point. The squandering leads definitely points to a mental fragility. 

You know what though, I don't think I'd class Johnson as too nice or weak or mentally fragile. To put up what he's had to and turned things around when it mattered takes guts and strength. I'm not a "fan," but I do admire how he's kept us up. 

For me I think that these stats do add some weight to the argument that Johnson has had more bad luck than good luck this season.  The fact that the numbers show that we've largely underachieved suggests that in reality we are more of a solid mid-table team than a lower-did table team.  

Let's imagine that we'd won against Wolves away, and held on against Reading and Cardiff at home.  9 points - putting us on 63 and in 11th place.  Crucially any one of those results would have prevented the record-breaking losing run.  It's those margins that cost LJ the goodwill of a number of fans.  

Having said that - the stats, in particular the poor finishing, reliance on Tammy, and high shots-against-allowance, do suggest that we've largely made our own bad luck.

PS. Hopefully E361 does a "points lost from winning positions" chart.  He did one for L1...I suspect we may be near the top of that particular little table.

[Ivorguy]

Brilliant post

Wish Lansdown would commission something similar 

[View from the Dolman]

Just now, Ivorguy said:

Brilliant post

Wish Lansdown would commission something similar 

How do you know what analysis already goes on?

[Mr Popodopolous]

3 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

For me I think that these stats do add some weight to the argument that Johnson has had more bad luck than good luck this season.  The fact that the numbers show that we've largely underachieved suggests that in reality we are more of a solid mid-table team than a lower-did table team.  

Let's imagine that we'd won against Wolves away, and held on against Reading and Cardiff at home.  9 points - putting us on 63 and in 11th place.  Crucially any one of those results would have prevented the record-breaking losing run.  It's those margins that cost LJ the goodwill of a number of fans.  

Having said that - the stats, in particular the poor finishing, reliance on Tammy, and high shots-against-allowance, do suggest that we've largely made our own bad luck.

PS. Hopefully E361 does a "points lost from winning positions" chart.  He did one for L1...I suspect we may be near the top of that particular little table.

Though I would add, to counter a little shots allowed- and that has been high, shots on target allowed did yield some skewed outcomes too in individual games.

Brighton at home- 2  shots on target, 2 goals=0-2 loss. Cardiff at home, I think they had 3 shots on target and one penalty (which doesn't count in those stats) and scored 3 goals. That's just off the top of my head but usually 5 shots on target against doesn't yield 4 goals.

[Ivorguy]

2 minutes ago, View from the Dolman said:

How do you know what analysis already goes on?

1Deduction from his radio interview yesterday

2No evidence from his decade plus as owner to suggest any lessons learnt 

3 No information from our 'transparent', owner's word, club pr machine

4 The overall amateur way the club is run (i.e. Total silence from Board at conclusion of season)

 

 

[View from the Dolman]

Just now, Ivorguy said:

1Deduction from his radio interview yesterday

2No evidence from his decade plus as owner to suggest any lessons learnt 

3 No information from our 'transparent', owner's word, club pr machine

4 The overall amateur way the club is run (i.e. Total silence from Board at conclusion of season)

 

 

So you don't know but have based it on your personal crusade? Thanks for the clarification.

[ExiledAjax]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Though I would add, to counter a little shots allowed- and that has been high, shots on target allowed did yield some skewed outcomes too in individual games.

Brighton at home- 2  shots on target, 2 goals=0-2 loss. Cardiff at home, I think they had 3 shots on target and one penalty (which doesn't count in those stats) and scored 3 goals. That's just off the top of my head but usually 5 shots on target against doesn't yield 4 goals.

Quite right. It's the reason that it's important to look at the whole season.  For example, E361's summary of that horrible Brighton game shows we were really bloody unlucky.  I think we all know that those two goals were softer than cottage cheese.  I think we also know to never play on Bonfire Night.  Numbers in brackets are how many goals each team was predicted to score based on the stats from the game.

"For a game featuring two attacks that started the season so impressively, this looks to have been quite a quiet game. Both sets of forwards have seen their performances ebb of late and this doesn’t look to have been a convincing win for Brighton, although having scored with their first two shots will have done little to incentivise them to attack further and they kept Bristol City at bay effectively apart from a belated surge."

[Always Believesham]

I genuinely think a lot of our problems stemmed from the experienced players brought in not leading the team effectively- Wilbraham has done this fantastically over the previous couple of seasons.

He hasn't been played as often, O'Neill has been injured frequently and underperformed. Maybe Bailey Wright, having taken a bit of time to adjust, is one of the answers to why we've suddenly been able to hit the form 'expected' by E361

[Ivorguy]

3 hours ago, View from the Dolman said:

So you don't know but have based it on your personal crusade? Thanks for the clarification.

As usual with the lack of transparency from the club, fans like us will just have to wait and see which of us is right

Would be so much-better if club was far more open of course

[downendcity]

4 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

My boozle is completely bammed .

I'd rub some of your squeaky bum oil in, that should un-bamm your boozle in a matter of minutes.

That is , of course, supposing you have any stock left!

 

[JamesBCFC]

I do like looking at these, E361s stuff is very good. Was thinking of using his probabilities to choose teams for an accumulator one week. Think theres been a few times this season where he got the entire Championships outcomes right for that round of fixtures.

[ExiledAjax]

Just now, JamesBCFC said:

I do like looking at these, E361s stuff is very good. Was thinking of using his probabilities to choose teams for an accumulator one week. Think theres been a few times this season where he got the entire Championships outcomes right for that round of fixtures.

Not that this is a betting tips thread - but looking at all of his L1, L2 and Champ pre-season predictions (which covers 72 clubs lets not forget) there's not many that are more than 2-3 places out.  Start of the season bets based on the final zone that a club finished in might not be too awful - you should win enough to cover the odd surprise like Reading.

[JamesBCFC]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Not that this is a betting tips thread - but looking at all of his L1, L2 and Champ pre-season predictions (which covers 72 clubs lets not forget) there's not many that are more than 2-3 places out.  Start of the season bets based on the final zone that a club finished in might not be too awful - you should win enough to cover the odd surprise like Reading.

I think there was one week where he gave a mid/lower side (might have been Fulham when they were struggling at the start of the season) a 40% chance of either Newcastle or Brighton. The highest % of his win, lose or draw chances for that game. 

He got it spot on, much to my surprise.

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

I think there was one week where he gave a mid/lower side (might have been Fulham when they were struggling at the start of the season) a 40% chance of either Newcastle or Brighton. The highest % of his win, lose or draw chances for that game. 

He got it spot on, much to my surprise.

Yeh his model sometimes makes some big calls spot on (such as never thinking we'd be relegated - which I heard was nailed on from some on here ) but generally I think its best to use his stuff for the long term predictions rather than individual matches - as it's all based on 10 to 30 game lead ins rather than short-term performances.

[JamesBCFC]

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh his model sometimes makes some big calls spot on (such as never thinking we'd be relegated - which I heard was nailed on from some on here ) but generally I think its best to use his stuff for the long term predictions rather than individual matches - as it's all based on 10 to 30 game lead ins rather than short-term performances.

Yeah, I'm a bit reluctant with the stuff at the very start because of the lack of data, but I might put a few bets on based on his data after 10 games next year

[Up The City!]

This is pretty much how I saw the season.

[BobBobSuperBob]

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Below is a summary of how Experimental 361 sees our season.  I think it's interesting that his stats pretty much prove what a large number of people think about our performances.  In short E361 and his number-crunching machine reckons that we have potential but have largely underperformed this season.  The graphs and images below show that we have been creating chances - but failing to finish them.  Personally I am encouraged by this.  With a few signings, a bit of luck, a clear vision and consistent application I think we could cruise to an upper-mid-table finish and all be on the beach come April 2018.

 

Full Champ breakdown here: https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/championship/

 

Attack

 

We needed an average of 11 shots per goal - putting us lower mid-table, and below teams like Blackburn, Forest, and Wolves.  Having said that we did keep defences and goalies busy (although that ludicrous Rotherham game probably affected this a bit).  E361 summarises it as "Bristol City created a similarly impressive volume of shots but struggled to convert them."

Defence

 

In defence we look soft.  13.5 shots faced per match with teams on average only needing to shoot 9.5 times in order to score against us.  We're not as soft as some but there's no doubt that we need to at least try to limit the number of shots faced - which is a job for midfield and the wingbacks - if we're to avoid those heartbreaking last minute losses.

 

Performance

 

This image needs a little explanation.  in short the blue line shows our actual goal difference over time.  The red line shows the goal difference that E361's numbers predicted we "should" have achieved based on the number and quality of the shots we have taken and faced.  The shaded area is the difference.  Therefore the shaded area can be read as an indication of whether we have been under or over achieving.  E361 summarises this season as "Consistently underachieved this season despite respectable performances – it seems only fair that they avoided the drop." Basically our performaces indicate that we should have had better results - Derby, Newcastle, Cardiff, Reading, Sheff Wed etc. It bears out the comments that although we lost/drew matches we were still actually performing ok.

 

 

Goalscorers

 

Here's something I bet you didn't realise - we relied heavily on Mr Kevin Oghenetega Tamaraebi Bakumo-Abraham for our goals.  Also, Bobby Reid missed a whole lot of chances and really, really, needs to work on his finishing over the summer.  The fact that Taylor, Djuric, Wilbs and Engvall don't even feature says a whole lot more i think.  Number one priority this summer is a goalscorer.

General Trend

I was never worried that we'd go down.  I'm a big believer in E361's stuff and at no point in the season did he think we had more than a 36% chance of being relegated.  Even after the losing run his number's still reckoned we had less than a 20% chance of going down. Yes the pre-season prediction was wildly off but on the whole I think you can see that we have the potential of a good squad.

"Having finished last season in relatively good shape, the model was expecting a solid mid-table finish from the Robins this time around. However after a bright start that seemed to bear this out, the wheels started to fall off in November and the slide took a long time to arrest. Strangely the balance of chances created remained relatively healthy during this bad run, so it’s tempting to conclude that the problem is psychological."

Here's to next season and the challenge for the top-10.

 

When did football become this complicated !!!!

Doesnt a balance sheet and a league table do the same job !!

[Jack Dawe]