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Increased number of away fans at Ashton Gate - Marginal gains or losses ?

Lord Northski

By Lord Northski
in Football Chat

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Lord Northski

Lord Northski

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I've wondered if there's any empirical evidence to support the statement often made by visiting managers and players alike that goes something like "the away following was amazing and really helped us get the result"; Whether there's a direct correlation between the numbers of away fans that travel (generally noisier than the average home fan) and the results they achieve because of their presence, compared to the results they would have achieved with less fans travelling.  If this is the case then City's idea of increasing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate could reduce the number of points we would get over a season and could go against LJ's idea of marginal gains,  which he currently seems quite keen on. 

If it is true that the noise that away fans make does alter the result, then you'd need to look at the extent to which it makes a difference and the amount of money spent on gaining each point, Perhaps you should look at reducing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate, as the points lost because of their presence isn't worth the increased revenue. Plus you may find that increasing the number of fans that City take away, let's say by subsidising away travel costs, would be worth more points etc and could potentially be better value to the club than spending x number of millions extra on a striker who may only score 2 or 3 more goals per season than one who's significantly cheaper.

I presume the statistical data exists, just wondered if anyone has ever sat down and gone through it in a Freakonomics/ Moneyball kind of way before. I would be interested to know the results.

 

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Posted
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9 minutes ago, Lord Northski said:

I've wondered if there's any empirical evidence to support the statement often made by visiting managers and players alike that goes something like "the away following was amazing and really helped us get the result"; Whether there's a direct correlation between the numbers of away fans that travel (generally noisier than the average home fan) and the results they achieve because of their presence, compared to the results they would have achieved with less fans travelling.  If this is the case then City's idea of increasing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate could reduce the number of points we would get over a season and could go against LJ's idea of marginal gains,  which he currently seems quite keen on. 

If it is true that the noise that away fans make does alter the result, then you'd need to look at the extent to which it makes a difference and the amount of money spent on gaining each point, Perhaps you should look at reducing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate, as the points lost because of their presence isn't worth the increased revenue. Plus you may find that increasing the number of fans that City take away, let's say by subsidising away travel costs, would be worth more points etc and could potentially be better value to the club than spending x number of millions extra on a striker who may only score 2 or 3 more goals per season than one who's significantly cheaper.

I presume the statistical data exists, just wondered if anyone has ever sat down and gone through it in a Freakonomics/ Moneyball kind of way before. I would be interested to know the results.

 

Wow.

:worship2:

On your next day off, you need to crunch the data - I am sure it exists.

Next, you need to do an analysis of away support Vs away results and form.

It's hard to comment without seeing the statistical correlations, however: do the better supported teams - as a gross generalisation - seem to perform better? Yes, I would say e.g. Manchester United consistently do better than Bristol Rovers - both home and away.

Good luck in your endeavours.

:thumbsup:

 

tfj

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redsapper

redsapper

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Most club will not fill the away end. If you allow fans to sit where they like (i.e. spread out) it reduces the amount of noise from the away team.

On the flip side more noise from the away end can generate more noise from the Home end leading to an improved atmosphere.  

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Phileas Fogg

Phileas Fogg

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It's the location of the away fans that's more of an issue. Newcastle and Wolves have the right idea, put them somewhere where their impact on the game is reduced. 

Giving the away fans a whole end behind the goal isn't a great idea in my opinion. Appreciate given the way AG was redeveloped it's a challenge to put them in an ideal spot.

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cityexile

cityexile

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41 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

Wow.

:worship2:

On your next day off, you need to crunch the data - I am sure it exists.

Next, you need to do an analysis of away support Vs away results and form.

It's hard to comment without seeing the statistical correlations, however: do the better supported teams - as a gross generalisation - seem to perform better? Yes, I would say e.g. Manchester United consistently do better than Bristol Rovers - both home and away.

Good luck in your endeavours.

:thumbsup:

 

tfj

Correlation is different to causation however.

Clearly there is a relationship between the big wealthy clubs and their level of away support. Is it the former or the latter that is responsible for their results?

I would think if makes some difference, how much is hard to gauge.

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Lord Northski

Lord Northski

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9 minutes ago, redsapper said:

Most club will not fill the away end. If you allow fans to sit where they like (i.e. spread out) it reduces the amount of noise from the away team.

On the flip side more noise from the away end can generate more noise from the Home end leading to an improved atmosphere.  

Which then begs the question; Does a good atmosphere statistically benefit the home or the away team? I would imagine it would benefit the home team as it draws those who ordinarily wouldn't make a noise into to doing so, and therefore increases their advantage due to the greater numbers and if true, there must be a critical number of away fans needed to do this, I assume this data exists but wouldn't know where to find it. 

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EnclosureSurge

EnclosureSurge

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On 8/12/2017 at 13:16, Lord Northski said:

I've wondered if there's any empirical evidence to support the statement often made by visiting managers and players alike that goes something like "the away following was amazing and really helped us get the result"; Whether there's a direct correlation between the numbers of away fans that travel (generally noisier than the average home fan) and the results they achieve because of their presence, compared to the results they would have achieved with less fans travelling.  If this is the case then City's idea of increasing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate could reduce the number of points we would get over a season and could go against LJ's idea of marginal gains,  which he currently seems quite keen on. 

If it is true that the noise that away fans make does alter the result, then you'd need to look at the extent to which it makes a difference and the amount of money spent on gaining each point, Perhaps you should look at reducing the number of away fans allowed into Ashton Gate, as the points lost because of their presence isn't worth the increased revenue. Plus you may find that increasing the number of fans that City take away, let's say by subsidising away travel costs, would be worth more points etc and could potentially be better value to the club than spending x number of millions extra on a striker who may only score 2 or 3 more goals per season than one who's significantly cheaper.

I presume the statistical data exists, just wondered if anyone has ever sat down and gone through it in a Freakonomics/ Moneyball kind of way before. I would be interested to know the results.

 

if this were true, then over time, wouldn't this result in a pyramid of football clubs in descending order of average away following? ie the clubs with the most away following would be near the top of the Premiership, all the way down to the likes of Accrington etc at the foot of the basement. In some ways things are more or less like that, but how do you explain Bournemouth being where they are? Or where Portsmouth were? In essence, it plays some part, but there are far too many other factors intertwined and inter-connected for such a simple theory to be true. Try tweeting someone like Simon Inglis who might know where to find away following stats (I know clubs give them out). However, I think the factors influencing success (ie "the results achieved" you mention) are far too varied for away support to have much more of a bearing than 'small'. Good idea, though, Northski.

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richwwtk

richwwtk

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As described above, the fact that the league tables do not correlate with the numbers of away fans means that it probably doesn't make a huge difference.

I figured for a very quick check it would be worth checking results against the same team at Ashton Gate over several seasons.

I chose Cardiff as we seem to play them fairly often, and since 2000 below are the games we've played against them since 2000, listed in order of the percentage of the crowd that away fans made up.

The results seem to be spread pretty evenly so that would appear to back up again the theory that it makes no difference.

Of course, it's a very small sample but taking more than 10 minutes or so on this didn't seem to be worth it as I'm no statistician but it was an interesting 10 minutes nonetheless.

 

SEASON        %AWAY    SCORE    W/D/L

2001/02      20.10    1-1    D

2009/10        16.40    0-6    L

2012/13        12.87    4-2    W

2016/17        10.72    2-3    L

2007/08        10.40    1-0    W

2010/11        10.21    3-0    W

2002/03        10.20    2-0    W

2015/16        9.27    0-2    L

2008/09        7.50    1-1    D

2011/12        6.30    1-2    L

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Phileas Fogg

Phileas Fogg

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28 minutes ago, richwwtk said:

As described above, the fact that the league tables do not correlate with the numbers of away fans means that it probably doesn't make a huge difference.

I figured for a very quick check it would be worth checking results against the same team at Ashton Gate over several seasons.

I chose Cardiff as we seem to play them fairly often, and since 2000 below are the games we've played against them since 2000, listed in order of the percentage of the crowd that away fans made up.

The results seem to be spread pretty evenly so that would appear to back up again the theory that it makes no difference.

Of course, it's a very small sample but taking more than 10 minutes or so on this didn't seem to be worth it as I'm no statistician but it was an interesting 10 minutes nonetheless.

 

SEASON        %AWAY    SCORE    W/D/L

2001/02      20.10    1-1    D

2009/10        16.40    0-6    L

2012/13        12.87    4-2    W

2016/17        10.72    2-3    L

2007/08        10.40    1-0    W

2010/11        10.21    3-0    W

2002/03        10.20    2-0    W

2015/16        9.27    0-2    L

2008/09        7.50    1-1    D

2011/12        6.30    1-2    L

Cardiff is a bit different as the home crowd (until recently) are more up for it than usual.

I think it does make a marginal difference - key word is marginal - and we should hold any *possible* advantage we have as the home side.

 

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EnclosureSurge

EnclosureSurge

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26 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Cardiff is a bit different as the home crowd (until recently) are more up for it than usual.

Not sure about that - home games against them are invariably Sunday/Sat midday affairs and, by their very nature, yawny/sleepy. Having said that, I know what you mean - there's a bit of singing for 10 mins before we go 0-1 down. Or, as last season, 2-0 up then 2-3 down. But that Joe Bryan goal! People forget that goal... Worth £5m+ I'd say.

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Phileas Fogg

Phileas Fogg

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15 minutes ago, EnclosureSurge said:

Not sure about that - home games against them are invariably Sunday/Sat midday affairs and, by their very nature, yawny/sleepy. Having said that, I know what you mean - there's a bit of singing for 10 mins before we go 0-1 down. Or, as last season, 2-0 up then 2-3 down. But that Joe Bryan goal! People forget that goal... Worth £5m+ I'd say.

Generally the crowd are more up for it against Cardiff but limitations like kick off time, bubble trips etc don't help.

I think recent atmosphere vs Cardiff since promotion have been poor though compared to years gone by.

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