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City using football analytics-a flavour from my own interests


The Humble Realist

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OK so i have read the very long thread about the Q and A with Mark Ashton and Lee Johnson last week...
One thing i massively noticed was the use of the football analtics software Statsbomb!


On the morning of the brentford away game last year I was listening to a re run of the 5 live social with Jermaine Jenas and Darren Fletcher...they had a guy on called Ted Knutson who is a football analyst and owns Statsbomb. He was involved in Brentford in their debut Championship year where they finished in the play offs and talked all about how analytics could/can/is and isnt being used in football.


It got me really interested and I started visiting the companys site www.statsbomb.com where there are detailed articles and monthly podcasts on football and in particular football analytics. Some of it is quite heavy but the podcast is always light and really interesting (to me anyway!) 


Some things discussed over the last few months
* Mo Salah would be a great signing for any top 6 Prem team and will produce lots of goals and assists
* Memphis Depay should have been  a success at Man U (on paper)
* Josh Kings form at Bournmouth wont last as he is scoring lots of goals from lots of positions where you wouldnt normally expect him/a player to score
* Set pieces are massively undervalued in football, Real Madrid work on set pieces and thats partly why they're so successful
* Recruitment Recruitment Recruitment- Scouts are important but so is data...if you dont use data its a very time heavy and person reliant system trying to recruit. Data doesnt tell the full picture but it massively helps filter the process
* Aston Villa wont storm the Championship as they have made too many signings which are old for a 46 game season
* Many championship clubs are starting to use data really effectively....the good news is it sounds like CIty are one of them!

Ted Knutson (statsbomb owner) lives in Bath and it sounds like they're involved with the club. He was heavily involved with Brentford as I said and will regulary comment on ongoings there even now. I've only given a small flavour of my own knowledge of the company based on being a consumer as a football fan (rather than any sort of analyst myself). 
I think this is really positive that the club is going this way and does give us an edge over any one not doing it! The bad news is lots of clubs probably are so as always with data it's about how you use the data, what its telling you etc etc
I'd really reccomend reading a few of the articles on the site and listening to the odd podcast...clearly city do practice set pieces for example (as i'm sure all clubs do) but this year we regulary have "moves" like last night where o'dowda dummied for Brownhill to shoot early on. As mentioned in another thread, Flints use at set pieces is really interesting as although not groundbreaking is showing that some thought is being put into goal kicks (its a shame Frankie cant kick!! Note: Currently Frankie is my player of the season for all of his saves which are FAR more important IMO).
 

Not sure whether it is wise for the club to share (or even for me to share what little I know!) as does it give other clubs an insight of what we are doing?

 

Thoughts?

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51 minutes ago, spudski said:

I thought this was a good article about recruiting managers and style of play etc.

http://statsbomb.com/2017/09/what-you-really-need-to-know-about-football-manager-recruitment/

Good example of the sorts of articles that are available on there...they did some season previews back in August...some more interesting that others...a lot depends on how in depth you want to see things...generally they try to make analytics as simple as possible for the consumer on there (albeit you have to want to read it!)

 

Some good ones about Man United last season and relegation threatened teams...

 

Also...i forgot to mention in my opening post...Knutson loves Tammy and was saying last season how pleased he was to see him doing well here and that he really rates him...

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1 hour ago, Leveller said:

There's also a prominent article about the reasons for Brentford's current plight.

Interesting...I did wonder how Brentford were struggling, considering they have the most shots on target in the league. The article makes some sense of it.

You can also relate to some instances as to how LJ is trying to play.

http://statsbomb.com/2017/09/inferior-tactical-strategies-the-bizarro-world-of-brentford/

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57 minutes ago, spudski said:

Interesting...I did wonder how Brentford were struggling, considering they have the most shots on target in the league. The article makes some sense of it.

You can also relate to some instances as to how LJ is trying to play.

http://statsbomb.com/2017/09/inferior-tactical-strategies-the-bizarro-world-of-brentford/

Yeh...makes a lot of sense when u see it in black and white...although also obvious in many ways 'shooting from too far out' and 'conceding too many chances ' is the very simplistic way to describe it .

 

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15 hours ago, The Humble Realist said:

Yeh...makes a lot of sense when u see it in black and white...although also obvious in many ways 'shooting from too far out' and 'conceding too many chances ' is the very simplistic way to describe it .

 

This months scatter graphs are interesting....think I'm going to take a punt if the odds are decent on Brentford making the play offs.

Plus the graphs show what LJ recently said in an interview....about scoring goals, entertaining, playing open and likely to concede at some point.

We definitely allow space in front of the 18 yard box and allow 'speculative' shots to come in. But close down when much nearer. Perhaps this is why some fans see our CM as being the weakest part of our set up. We defend high and wide....and around and in the 18 yrd box. But that area between the half way circle and our 'D' seems to be where we allow play a little.

https://experimental361.com/2017/09/17/scatter-graphics-championship-17-sep-2017/

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1 hour ago, spudski said:

This months scatter graphs are interesting....think I'm going to take a punt if the odds are decent on Brentford making the play offs.

Plus the graphs show what LJ recently said in an interview....about scoring goals, entertaining, playing open and likely to concede at some point.

We definitely allow space in front of the 18 yard box and allow 'speculative' shots to come in. But close down when much nearer. Perhaps this is why some fans see our CM as being the weakest part of our set up. We defend high and wide....and around and in the 18 yrd box. But that area between the half way circle and our 'D' seems to be where we allow play a little.

https://experimental361.com/2017/09/17/scatter-graphics-championship-17-sep-2017/

I keep literally backing them for the Play-Offs as the odds drift. They are the best footballing side in the league.

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23 hours ago, The Humble Realist said:

OK so i have read the very long thread about the Q and A with Mark Ashton and Lee Johnson last week...
One thing i massively noticed was the use of the football analtics software Statsbomb!


On the morning of the brentford away game last year I was listening to a re run of the 5 live social with Jermaine Jenas and Darren Fletcher...they had a guy on called Ted Knutson who is a football analyst and owns Statsbomb. He was involved in Brentford in their debut Championship year where they finished in the play offs and talked all about how analytics could/can/is and isnt being used in football.


It got me really interested and I started visiting the companys site www.statsbomb.com where there are detailed articles and monthly podcasts on football and in particular football analytics. Some of it is quite heavy but the podcast is always light and really interesting (to me anyway!) 


Some things discussed over the last few months
* Mo Salah would be a great signing for any top 6 Prem team and will produce lots of goals and assists
* Memphis Depay should have been  a success at Man U (on paper)
* Josh Kings form at Bournmouth wont last as he is scoring lots of goals from lots of positions where you wouldnt normally expect him/a player to score
* Set pieces are massively undervalued in football, Real Madrid work on set pieces and thats partly why they're so successful
* Recruitment Recruitment Recruitment- Scouts are important but so is data...if you dont use data its a very time heavy and person reliant system trying to recruit. Data doesnt tell the full picture but it massively helps filter the process
* Aston Villa wont storm the Championship as they have made too many signings which are old for a 46 game season
* Many championship clubs are starting to use data really effectively....the good news is it sounds like CIty are one of them!

Ted Knutson (statsbomb owner) lives in Bath and it sounds like they're involved with the club. He was heavily involved with Brentford as I said and will regulary comment on ongoings there even now. I've only given a small flavour of my own knowledge of the company based on being a consumer as a football fan (rather than any sort of analyst myself). 
I think this is really positive that the club is going this way and does give us an edge over any one not doing it! The bad news is lots of clubs probably are so as always with data it's about how you use the data, what its telling you etc etc
I'd really reccomend reading a few of the articles on the site and listening to the odd podcast...clearly city do practice set pieces for example (as i'm sure all clubs do) but this year we regulary have "moves" like last night where o'dowda dummied for Brownhill to shoot early on. As mentioned in another thread, IMO).
Flints use at set pieces is really interesting as although not groundbreaking is showing that some thought is being put into goal kicks (its a shame Frankie cant kick!! Note: Currently Frankie is my player of the season for all of his saves which are FAR more important

Not sure whether it is wise for the club to share (or even for me to share what little I know!) as does it give other clubs an insight of what we are doing?

 

Thoughts?

Flints use at set pieces is really interesting as although not groundbreaking is showing that some thought is being put into goal kicks (its a shame Frankie cant kick!! Note: Currently Frankie is my player of the season for all of his saves which are FAR more important.

As somebody who is interested in football data could you go beyond opinion? Massive emphasis is now placed on distribution. For some clubs distribution is more important than saves. FA coaching stresses how important footballing ability is now for Keepers. Its becoming a primary function.

Set pieces are massively undervalued in football  Real Madrid work on set pieces and that's partly why they're so successful but  set pieces are also wildly over valued unless you have specialists players who go beyond metric norms. Isn't Aden Flint a statistical phenom? No Adens, no specialists go short = Its less wasteful statistically. 

I find stats interesting because they are becoming so ingrained into football, and they have altered the way I think about the game. Nothing like somebody showing you that only 2.5 - 3.2 goals are scored every hundred corners normally or that smashing balls into the mixer actually is not that effective v keeping it to feet.

 

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3 minutes ago, EmersonsRed said:

I often wonder how they don't batter teams by 4/5. Their defence isn't the best but they'll click eventually. Ipswich on the other hand, they are a bottom 6 side IMO.

The scatter graphs tend to bear that out. Ipswich have faced more shots on target than anyone else. Brentford the quietest defence as well.

Our next opponents are interesting. From the graphs I'm going for a draw.

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24 minutes ago, spudski said:

The scatter graphs tend to bear that out. Ipswich have faced more shots on target than anyone else. Brentford the quietest defence as well.

Our next opponents are interesting. From the graphs I'm going for a draw.

Not quite, according to the graph Preston, Middlesbrough and Cardiff have faced less shots. 

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