The comparison to last season

[JEP]

Disclaimer: I've put this spreadsheet together over a couple of hours this evening, so I'm sorry if I've got anything wrong!

Something I'm interested in is comparing how we did last season to this season, both in terms of the first 11 games we've played, but also against the equivalent teams from last season. The spreadsheet I've attached shows our results from last season put next to our results/fixtures from this season.

The red box in the corner shows the points, goals scored, conceded and goal difference in the 11 games that we played this season and last season. It also shows how we performed against the same teams last season. I've put the relegated teams from the Premiership equal to the teams that went up last season, and the teams promoted from League One equal to those relegated to it.

The key thing to take away from this is that we're 7 points better off in the same fixtures as last season, scoring 7 more and conceding 5 less.

I'll try and keep this updated for the rest season and post the updates at various points over the coming months.

[eardun]

The stats support the feeling then. Generally we look far more resilient while playing quick passing football. We had also lost 3 at this stage last season. I think the fact that we have only lost once this season is telling, albeit we have won 1 less than last season. 

[cityal]

58 minutes ago, JEP said:

Disclaimer: I've put this spreadsheet together over a couple of hours this evening, so I'm sorry if I've got anything wrong!

Cardiff in red 

[ZiderEyed]

Forgot how shit we were away from home last season. How times change. LJ's massive great threshing machine marches on.

[Guest]

This and many other like minded threads confirm only one thing to date; we are just about, when all said and done in the same position and with the same number of points atm.

We all know what happened next last season and ALL hope there is no repeat this season;

Now only time will tell, what will indeed happen, I don't think anyone can predict the future, yet.....so we will have to wait and see.

Nice spread sheet by op though, must have took some time

[SedRA]

19 minutes ago, glos old boy said:

This and many other like minded threads confirm only one thing to date; we are just about, when all said and done in the same position and with the same number of points atm.

We all know what happened next last season and ALL hope there is no repeat this season;

Now only time will tell, what will indeed happen, I don't think anyone can predict the future, yet.....so we will have to wait and see.

Nice spread sheet by op though, must have took some time

No, it confirms that we are 7 points better off against the same teams from last year, which is actually an interesting comparison. 

@JEP Another interesting column to add would be gf and ga difference from the corresponding games last year. 

[JEP]

11 hours ago, cityal said:

Cardiff in red 

1 hour ago, RedSA said:

No, it confirms that we are 7 points better off against the same teams from last year, which is actually an interesting comparison. 

@JEP Another interesting column to add would be gf and ga difference from the corresponding games last year. 

I think in order to get the whole picture you need to look at both of them together and not separately. Yes, we have had the same start as last season as @glos old boy, but the games that we've had have been tougher than those last season, so I think we do have reason to be a little excited. If that 7 is there all season, then we'd finish on 61 points, something which I think a lot of us would have taken at the start of the season - though probably not now!

[winterbournered]

Nicely put together but why do people keep going on about comparisons with last season? It has absolutely no bearing on this season at all. 

Every season is different! Just enjoy this for what it is, a fantastic start to the season. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

10 minutes ago, winterbournered said:

Nicely put together but why do people keep going on about comparisons with last season? It has absolutely no bearing on this season at all. 

Every season is different! Just enjoy this for what it is, a fantastic start to the season. 

Because looking at and comparing over a long period (particularly) performances, and form , both individual players , the team as a whole incl the coaching staff gives ( IMHO ) A far more accurate and confident assessment of where we are now , and of any progress (Of which there looks plenty ! ) rather than a 'flash' assessment of one or two current games

[spudski]

The Club and fans, are reaping the rewards for letting LJ develop a team that is suitable to playing his style of football.

It's taken time, which he has been given.

Mistakes were made, and have since been rectified it seems.

Players that weren't suitable for what LJ wants, have been moved on.

He got burnt massively with Matthews and Tomlin. I also don't think we'll see much of GoN...just a hunch, maybe wrong on that. Little was a trier...but imo, not good enough in this league. Same can be said of Golbourne. Freeman....lots of tricks, no end product.

I'm really pleased we allowed LJ this time to make the transitions and learn from the mistakes.

You could at times see what he was trying to do last season...but he didn't have all the right tools to make it happen.

No big name stars...just a bunch of lads all working hard for one another. Seems to be right throughout the club as well.

If we continue playing this way, get another decent midfielder in January, and keep all the players we have now, with no major injuries, we may make the play offs. Big ask though.

It's a really tough league, and it maybe a season too soon for some of these young lads. Who knows though...we can dare to dream and enjoy the ride. It's certainly entertaining to watch.

[winterbournered]

17 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Because looking at and comparing over a long period (particularly) performances, and form , both individual players , the team as a whole incl the coaching staff gives ( IMHO ) A far more accurate and confident assessment of where we are now , and of any progress (Of which there looks plenty ! ) rather than a 'flash' assessment of one or two current games

Sorry, I meant particular results as in we lost away to so and so last season but beat them this season! 

Totally agree with stats in relation to players/team in guaging if training programmes/tactics are improving/working.

Dont think specific results against specific teams, who may have changed managers/players/tactics/be in a poor run of form etc is IMO an indication of anything. 

[BobBobSuperBob]

9 minutes ago, winterbournered said:

Sorry, I meant particular results as in we lost away to so and so last season but beat them this season! 

Totally agree with stats in relation to players/team in guaging if training programmes/tactics are improving/working.

Dont think specific results against specific teams, who may have changed managers/players/tactics/be in a poor run of form etc is IMO an indication of anything. 

See what you're getting at 

Does give a instant snapshot indicator of current momentum and situation / form of us and those Clubs

Intend to compare more a similar fixture / task in comparison to last year so a trip to a started well Ipswich this season may have been similar to going to say a Sheffield Weds last season or similar 

[old_eastender]

1 hour ago, winterbournered said:

Nicely put together but why do people keep going on about comparisons with last season? It has absolutely no bearing on this season at all. 

Every season is different! Just enjoy this for what it is, a fantastic start to the season. 

I'd say it's to counter those that are getting carried away with our good start and talking about us being play-off contenders or nailed on to finish in the top ten. we, and most importantly the players need to stay grounded, we have achieved nothing yet. Remember Swindon's wild celebrations after they beat us in League 1, totally misplaced, and getting too cocky too soon probably contributed to their eventual unsuccessful season.

Last season we were 5th, with 20 points from 11 games going in to the international break just like now and we all know what happened after. Yes all the signs are much more positive than last season but we still have to do the hard graft to build on this good start. For me if we can take another 7 pts from the next 3 games, as we have both the last two batches of 3 games, then I will start to get excited!

[DaveInSA]

I am glad to be proved wrong. I wanted LJ sacked last year, we looked lost.

This year it's totally different. As @spudski said, there is no superstar in this team, actually in the entire club. Good. The lads look like they know what they're doing and they are doing it well.

The interesting thing for me from the stats table is the goals conceded column. Way more healthy. If we can keep a solid defence, we always stand a chance of surprising teams with our pace and skill up front. If you don't concede a goal, you're always guaranteed a point.

My biggest worry is Centre Midfield. Smith can look a little laboured and often chose the wrong pass yesterday. Maybe he's still feeling his way back after his injury, maybe he'll never be the same player again. Who knows?

I like this too:

Quote

He got burnt massively with Matthews and Tomlin. I also don't think we'll see much of GoN...just a hunch, maybe wrong on that. Little was a trier...but imo, not good enough in this league. Same can be said of Golbourne. Freeman....lots of tricks, no end product.

Freeman never delivered a decent final ball in all the championship games I watched (not many granted on the TV in Africa)!

[Guest]

5 hours ago, RedSA said:

No, it confirms that we are 7 points better off against the same teams from last year, which is actually an interesting comparison. 

@JEP Another interesting column to add would be gf and ga difference from the corresponding games last year. 

The teams are not the same because some players are different, as are some managers. The only constant thing is games played relating to points earned, I can understand how things are being looked at in our favour, but the point being they are not actually the same teams of players we just played the some of the same clubs;.

We seem to have a better team/squad.......so far but its far from over and much could yet happen; winter will soon be here and the transfer window could also change things for many;

Result; Looking good so far ....long way to go yet.

 

[whale]

Interesting. Hopefully will show whether or not we have improved relative to others as the season progresses. 

[Hampshire Red]

Wow, I have hardly ever agreed with Spudski but that's a decent post. A bit hard to say we need a decent CM: we have several already as proven by our attacking fast- ball game and in our defensive stats where the back 4 have benefited from good CMs

Which players would you see as realistic, good CBs. Skuse has everything bar goals, who else?? 

[Robbored]

The benefit of last years experiences is a huge advantage right now. As others have said, City are currently exactly where we were last year at the international break. - then City played Cardiff on a Friday night and lost. After that defeat the wheels came off.

We all know it and so does LJ and most of the players. I'm 100% certain that the same wont happen this season. Everything within the squad is different. More unity, better blend of players, LJs high press style functioning well with a solid defence.

I think I'm right in saying that all the first teamers are LJs signings - he said three windows and now he has "his team".

 

 

[RedM]

36 minutes ago, Robbored said:

The benefit of last years experiences is a huge advantage right now. As others have said, City are currently exactly where we were last year at the international break. - then City played Cardiff on a Friday night and lost. After that defeat the wheels came off.

We all know it and so does LJ and most of the players. I'm 100% certain that the same wont happen this season. Everything within the squad is different. More unity, better blend of players, LJs high press style functioning well with a solid defence.

I think I'm right in saying that all the first teamers are LJs signings - he said three windows and now he has "his team".

 

 

How are all the first teamers his signings? Are you including new deals they have signed since he arrived?  I can think of at least 6 who were here long before he arrived and have been regular all season.

[Robbored]

9 minutes ago, RedM said:

How are all the first teamers his signings? Are you including new deals they have signed since he arrived?  I can think of at least 6 who were here long before he arrived and have been regular all season.

Flint and FF were here.. Korey Smith was with LJ previously. Reid, Bryan and Vyner all academy graduates. Who are the others? 

[BookEnd]

In my opinion, last season and this season is night and day. Last season we had no 'identity' per se. We nabbed points we shouldn't have, we had bad apples upsetting/unsettling the team harmony and balance. 

This year, we're rid of the bad apples and we have a nailed on playing style which is so evident to see now, we press hard, set up traps for the opposition, but in a manner we are not gassing ourselves out, we press when we need to and take a breather with slow possession play. This year it feels like we can see our style of play, and the players we have have brought into it. We have an 'identity' this year, with immense quality in depth. I see no reason why a play off finish is not within our grasp. We have a unified squad, a identify of how we play. I am quietly confident this could be a special year for us. 

[1960maaan]

On 01/10/2017 at 12:39, spudski said:

The Club and fans, are reaping the rewards for letting LJ develop a team that is suitable to playing his style of football.

It's taken time, which he has been given.

Mistakes were made, and have since been rectified it seems.

Players that weren't suitable for what LJ wants, have been moved on.

He got burnt massively with Matthews and Tomlin. I also don't think we'll see much of GoN...just a hunch, maybe wrong on that. Little was a trier...but imo, not good enough in this league. Same can be said of Golbourne. Freeman....lots of tricks, no end product.

I'm really pleased we allowed LJ this time to make the transitions and learn from the mistakes.

You could at times see what he was trying to do last season...but he didn't have all the right tools to make it happen.

No big name stars...just a bunch of lads all working hard for one another. Seems to be right throughout the club as well.

If we continue playing this way, get another decent midfielder in January, and keep all the players we have now, with no major injuries, we may make the play offs. Big ask though.

It's a really tough league, and it maybe a season too soon for some of these young lads. Who knows though...we can dare to dream and enjoy the ride. It's certainly entertaining to watch.

For me , this is key. Whether I agreed/agree or not is irrelevant .
I've said this before but SL coming out and saying LJ was here as long as Lansdown wanted, nipped frustrations in the bud and gave players confidence that we wouldn't be changing bosses and attitudes.
Add that to actually giving a boss time to see plans through, adjust and tinker with those plans , on the face of is ,  a simple idea and sensible. This however, rarely happens in modern football. He has clearly learnt , and you never know it may change a few others mindsets if we are actually successful this year.  
Things/players tried last year that didn't work have been sorted, players are a year older and wiser, and we have had another year for LJ to get his ideas across. At the moment it's working (long may it continue) , there will be blips and we will lose game and that will be the acid test. If we lose a game then bounce back with a result last year can be forgotten, and believe me I've tried .
I agree about a MF , probably our weakest area but certainly not as weak as it looked at times last year.  I'm not sure about playoff's either, there are too many good teams to count any chickens just yet, and a long way to go.  As you say, strap yourself in it could be an exciting and (hopefully) an enjoyable ride.

[RedM]

2 hours ago, Robbored said:

Flint and FF were here.. Korey Smith was with LJ previously. Reid, Bryan and Vyner all academy graduates. Who are the others? 

Exactly Frankie was here and Flint, so was Joe, Bobby and Korey (yes Korey had been managed by him previously but wasn't signed to this club by Lee) and Marlon was already here too. There you go, 6 regular first teamers ( that's over half the team) that were playing here and not signed by Lee Johnson for Bristol City. 

[Robbored]

24 minutes ago, RedM said:

Exactly Frankie was here and Flint, so was Joe, Bobby and Korey (yes Korey had been managed by him previously but wasn't signed to this club by Lee) and Marlon was already here too. There you go, 6 regular first teamers ( that's over half the team) that were playing here and not signed by Lee Johnson for Bristol City. 

I forgot about Pack.

[finbarr_in_z]

On ‎01‎/‎10‎/‎2017 at 12:18, winterbournered said:

Nicely put together but why do people keep going on about comparisons with last season?

Because as BCFC fans we anticipate a disaster, no matter what.

[BCFC_Dan]

I thought I'd have a quick look at the Experimental 361 chart of expected goals for this time last year and we're actually very slightly worse this year, though basically in the same place. 

Two months later and our form had gone off a cliff, but the underlying stats hadn't moved that much:

The lack of change in expected goal stats was why I was always fairly confident that things would turn around last season. Our run of poor form was not really explained by poor performances and was largely down to bad luck. This of course means it could happen again this season, though I think it's unlikely.

Either that, or expected goals is a load of rubbish.