Last years comparison - watershed

[Devereux]

Throughout the whole of this great start to the season I have been comparing us closely to last season at each stage, knowing we made a very good start last year. Statistically the Fulham game was the one that has pushed us beyond last years form. 

After the Fulham game we are 4th with 27 points after 15 games. Last season after 15 games we were 6th with 24 points.

27 points seems to be the magic number where comparisons with last year are concerned. We didn't get to 27 points until game 19 and we didn't go beyond 27 points until game 28!!! In effect the next 13 games last season was when our really bad run occured.

 

2016/17				2017/18
	Lge Pos	Lge Pts			Lge Pos	Lge Pts
Game 1	5	3		Game 1	1	3
Game 2	2	6		Game 2	10	3
Game 3	8	6		Game 3	9	4
Game 4	10	6		Game 4	11	5
Game 5	6	9		Game 5	13	6
Game 6	9	10		Game 6	9	9
Game 7	13	10		Game 7	12	10
Game 8	12	11		Game 8	8	13
Game 9	10	14		Game 9	8	14
Game 10	6	17		Game 10	7	17
Game 11	5	20		Game 11	4	20
Game 12	5	20		Game 12	4	21
Game 13	7	20		Game 13	7	21
Game 14	6	23		Game 14	4	24
Game 15	6	24		Game 15	4	27
Game 16	9	24
Game 17	10	24
Game 18	13	24
Game 19	11	27
Game 20	14	27
Game 21	15	27
Game 22	16	27
Game 23	17	27
Game 24	17	27
Game 25	18	27
Game 26	19	27
Game 27	20	27
Game 28	20	28
Game 29	20	31
Game 30	20	32
Game 31	20	32
Game 32	21	32
Game 33	21	33
Game 34	21	33
Game 35	22	34
Game 36	22	35
Game 37	21	38
Game 38	19	41
Game 39	21	41
Game 40	21	41
Game 41	21	44
Game 42	18	47
Game 43	18	48
Game 44	17	51
Game 45	17	54
Game 46	17	54

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I don't think it's a very useful comparison to make. There are so many variables in football that comparing two seasons in such a competitive division won't tell you much. It's more a superstitious thing from our fans than a useful piece of analysis. Our squad is clearly far stronger than last year.

In the Premier League where generally the same sides are battling it out for largely the same league finishes, it might tell you more. This league is more transient and the status quo over 4-5 seasons will always change.

[OldlandReddies]

Although not much difference between league position/points compared to last season, we have played much better this time around, have goalscorers all over the pitch, a much deeper squad and have lost 2? fewer games. It 'feels' different this season. Saturday though, imo, will tell me how much we have progressed.

[Devereux]

I agree we are in a completely different position from last year and I fully expect us to be way ahead of where we were last year after the next run of games. What is more interesting i guess is how different this season feels compared to last season when the points tally is actually not that different. It is a remarkable turnaround really.

The real test for us (as it was last season) is between now and the other side of Xmas when traditionally games come thick and fast and injuries mount. For me if we are top 6 come the FA Cup 3rd round weekend then we really are in business.

[Phileas Fogg]

2 minutes ago, Devereux said:

I agree we are in a completely different position from last year and I fully expect us to be way ahead of where we were last year after the next run of games. What is more interesting i guess is how different this season feels compared to last season when the points tally is actually not that different. It is a remarkable turnaround really.

The real test for us (as it was last season) is between now and the other side of Xmas when traditionally games come thick and fast and injuries mount. For me if we are top 6 come the FA Cup 3rd round weekend then we really are in business.

I think many of us knew that really in our good run last year we were in a bit of a false position. Statistically all the indicators were there that we'd drop off (the same ones that show Brentford should be threatening top 6 for example) and our performances themselves were often a bit lukewarm. I never expected such an awful run of form though.

This year, our squad depth is better, players are maturing and both the stats and performances show we're where we are on merit. Our cup run has been a positive really because it's allowed fringe players to get games and keep sharp. 

I think we've got the squad depth, except in one or two positions, to be ok in the event of more injuries.

 

[Robbored]

6 minutes ago, OldlandReddies said:

Although not much difference between league position/points compared to last season, we have played much better this time around, have goalscorers all over the pitch, a much deeper squad and have lost 2? fewer games. It 'feels' different this season. Saturday though, imo, will tell me how much we have progressed.

It certainly does 'feel' better than last season. Everything seem different about Citys performances and to me that's partly down to the high pressing game which is so effective especially in away games. To employ that type of game you need an energetic team and the whole squad looks fitter and that must stem from the work done up at Failand.

The Cardiff game will  be tough test on Saturday and I'd settle for a point right now.

[spudski]

With respect to the OP, this comparison of last season and this, is completely futile. I really don't understand why so many fans keep going on about it. As Foggy said...so many variables...so many changes, not just for us, but also the teams we are competing against.

Whilst it's a great position to be in, I can't help but think, that for the sanity of certain fans, we'd be better off in mid table and making the play offs in the last week of the season :laugh:

If we do end up mid table, which many of us thought at the beginning of the season would be progress, then I can see the same old grumbles.

However...we've created a strong platform early doors to keep going.

You've only got to look at the league table every week and watch the results, and everyone is capable of beating everyone. Good teams like Preston and Leeds falling away...other teams like Derby and Brentford creeping up. So many changes will happen over the rest of the season imo.

It's a cracking league and never boring.

[downendcity]

2 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think many of us knew that really in our good run last year we were in a bit of a false position. Statistically all the indicators were there that we'd drop off (the same ones that show Brentford should be threatening top 6 for example) and our performances themselves were often a bit lukewarm. I never expected such an awful run of form though.

This year, our squad depth is better, players are maturing and both the stats and performances show we're where we are on merit. Our cup run has been a positive really because it's allowed fringe players to get games and keep sharp. 

I think we've got the squad depth, except in one or two positions, to be ok in the event of more injuries.

 

Even during the poor run I felt we were in a false position. 

On our losing run we were only losing by the odd goal, losing from winning positions and conceding late goals to lose and were very often properly in games. When a team loses 9 on the trot and plummets down the table you expect them to be capitulating and getting thrashed fairly often, bit that was not the case with us.

Similarly, and as you say, the start to the season  was misleading as our results and league position did not reflect that we were often scraping results in games that we dod not deserve to win.

It illustrates very well what so many comment on and that is that the difference between success and failure in this division comes down to very small margins.

As you say the younger players we bought in as "ones for the future" are maturing, but I also think that we are now benefitting from the fact that they all came through last season together and will be a stronger group as a result.

I am also convinced that there was disruption within the dressing room, quite probably caused mainly by one player, but the fact that SL stood by LJ when things were at their worst, and that faith was justified by the results at the end of the season will have strengthened the relationship and trust between LJ and the players, and the more so since one player left in the summer.

Still a long way to go , so far to early to get carried away about promotion, but as long as we don;t get crippled by the current spate of injuries continuing I think we have a strong enough squad to stick around at the right end of the table. There are stronger squads in this league, and clubs like Villa seem to be getting their act together and would be strong through the season, but we could well be dark horses in the same way that GJ's team was a decade ago. 

 

 

[downendcity]

7 minutes ago, spudski said:

With respect to the OP, this comparison of last season and this, is completely futile. I really don't understand why so many fans keep going on about it. As Foggy said...so many variables...so many changes, not just for us, but also the teams we are competing against.

Whilst it's a great position to be in, I can't help but think, that for the sanity of certain fans, we'd be better off in mid table and making the play offs in the last week of the season

If we do end up mid table, which many of us thought at the beginning of the season would be progress, then I can see the same old grumbles.

However...we've created a strong platform early doors to keep going.

You've only got to look at the league table every week and watch the results, and everyone is capable of beating everyone. Good teams like Preston and Leeds falling away...other teams like Derby and Brentford creeping up. So many changes will happen over the rest of the season imo.

It's a cracking league and never boring.

I think the comparison became a big issue for the fans who wanted LJ gone last season, and remained sceptical about him, despite us escaping relegation last season.

For them, as this season unfolded positively, the comparison to last season supported their scepticism as the start to this season was a mirror image of last season's start in terms of points and league position, and they were then able to remind us all of what happened next, at around this time in the season.

From my point of view we seem a completely different proposition this season, the players and LJ are singing from the same hymn sheet and we also seem to have a plan B and C if the Fulham game is any thing to go by. You are absolutely right in that this division is so very tight because there is little to choose between many of the teams, but the good thing is that we are capable of mixing it with any of them.

If we do end up mid table then it will be progress form the last 2 seasons, but as you say I can well imagine the unhappy fans that will be posting on here should that be the final outcome.

[Phileas Fogg]

6 minutes ago, downendcity said:

I think the comparison became a big issue for the fans who wanted LJ gone last season, and remained sceptical about him, despite us escaping relegation last season.

For them, as this season unfolded positively, the comparison to last season supported their scepticism as the start to this season was a mirror image of last season's start in terms of points and league position, and they were then able to remind us all of what happened next, at around this time in the season.

Yep, definitely seems to be the final barricade of scepticism to overcome. The arguments have slowly dissolved..

• Jobs for the boys! How dare LJ replace Pemberton with McAllister Improved form since his arrival
• No high reputation players will join LJ Baker re-signs for LJ
• No Tomlin, where's the creativity in the side? Paterson is the league's leading assister' by October
• No Abraham, where will the goals come from? Reid gets 10 by November
• We should've replaced LJ with a high profile manager like Redknapp, Rowett or Monk Redknapp sacked, City currently above Derby and Boro
• "Remember! Last season we started well and look what happened" <- that's the last one to go

[RedM]

I think psychologically the Cardiff game is a big one. Many saw our loss against them last October as the start of our bad run after the International break. Well we have got past the break and now got to face Cardiff. If we win of course it would be fantastic, but a loss should not be catastrophic.

Yes it's the nearest thing we have to a derby, yes we have had plenty of run in's with a manager only a few people here like (for the record I'm not one of those people!), yes an ex player who left under a cloud could feature, yes there is pride at stake but that said there is 'only' 3 points too. We shouldn't be over confident if we win, nor dispondant if we lose. As long as the players are up for it and give their all, which I think this group will be. 

[Monkeh]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I don't think it's a very useful comparison to make. There are so many variables in football that comparing two seasons in such a competitive division won't tell you much. It's more a superstitious thing from our fans than a useful piece of analysis. Our squad is clearly far stronger than last year.

In the Premier League where generally the same sides are battling it out for largely the same league finishes, it might tell you more. This league is more transient and the status quo over 4-5 seasons will always change.

don't think we should be making a comparison at all, the sooner last seasons run stops being mentioned the sooner we can all move on and stop living the nightmare

[Kingswoodactor]

1 hour ago, OldlandReddies said:

Although not much difference between league position/points compared to last season, we have played much better this time around, have goalscorers all over the pitch, a much deeper squad and have lost 2? fewer games. It 'feels' different this season. Saturday though, imo, will tell me how much we have progressed.

I swear loads on here were saying that the Thursday before the Leeds game  

[Yellow&Blue&Red]

39 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

 

• We should've replaced LJ with a high profile manager like Redknapp, Rowett or Monk Redknapp sacked, City currently above Derby and Boro
•  

People were saying that we should get Redknapp in?? The man's a disreputable fraud. Prince of bungs, tax evading, semi-litterate shyster.  These are some phrases that I'm not sure one could legally associate with Redknapp and so I won't.

[Phileas Fogg]

40 minutes ago, Monkeh said:

don't think we should be making a comparison at all, the sooner last seasons run stops being mentioned the sooner we can all move on and stop living the nightmare

No me neither, but people still do.

25 minutes ago, Yellow&Blue&Red said:

People were saying that we should get Redknapp in?? The man's a disreputable fraud. Prince of bungs, tax evading, semi-litterate shyster.  These are some phrases that I'm not sure one could legally associate with Redknapp and so I won't.

There was definitely clamour for an 'experienced' manager. I can understand it to an extent but seems faith in Johnson by Lansdown has been vindicated.

[ChippenhamRed]

One concern about our excellent start is that we do end up finishing say 10th-12th, it will be viewed as a poor campaign and questions will resurface about Johnson, Lansdown and everything else. Whereas in actual fact, that would probably be about par and would represent a fourth successive season of incremental improvement. Not to say I wouldn't be a little disappointed with that myself now - but I hope we can keep a sensible perspective.

[Devereux]

I dont think 10th 12th would be poor. Anything above 17th is success for me. keep improving each season.

(of course my heart wants promotion mind!)

[Leveller]

Thanks to the OP for this.

There are several comments saying the comparison is pointless and futile, but to me it is fascinating nevertheless. The starts are so similar and last season was so topsy turvy that we are bound to have it in the backs of our minds.

I suspect everyone who is dismissing the comparison will be secretly or unconsciously tracking it anyway!

[Natchfever]

Relatively early days in a crazy league.

[Leveller]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Yep, definitely seems to be the final barricade of scepticism to overcome. The arguments have slowly dissolved..

• Jobs for the boys! How dare LJ replace Pemberton with McAllister Improved form since his arrival
• No high reputation players will join LJ Baker re-signs for LJ
• No Tomlin, where's the creativity in the side? Paterson is the league's leading assister' by October
• No Abraham, where will the goals come from? Reid gets 10 by November
• We should've replaced LJ with a high profile manager like Redknapp, Rowett or Monk Redknapp sacked, City currently above Derby and Boro
• "Remember! Last season we started well and look what happened" <- that's the last one to go

They also clamoured for Warnock though, and much as I dislike him, he's doing rather well so far.  I admit I would LOVE IT [(C) K Keegan] if we could finish above Colin!

[phantom]

11 minutes ago, Leveller said:

They also clamoured for Warnock though, and much as I dislike him, he's doing rather well so far.  I admit I would LOVE IT [(C) K Keegan] if we could finish above Colin!

I believe if that is the case @Leveller we will be at worst in the play off places

[Phileas Fogg]

2 hours ago, Leveller said:

They also clamoured for Warnock though, and much as I dislike him, he's doing rather well so far.  I admit I would LOVE IT [(C) K Keegan] if we could finish above Colin!

Yeah I think he's a good manager in his own right, would never be a realistic fit here under the current very specific requirements for a manager to abide by.

I think it really limits, to quote Ashton, our "lakes and rivers" we can fish in for managers. Foreign or lower reputation coaches happy to work under that remit.

[Son of Fred]

5 hours ago, Devereux said:

Throughout the whole of this great start to the season I have been comparing us closely to last season at each stage, knowing we made a very good start last year. Statistically the Fulham game was the one that has pushed us beyond last years form. 

After the Fulham game we are 4th with 27 points after 15 games. Last season after 15 games we were 6th with 24 points.

27 points seems to be the magic number where comparisons with last year are concerned. We didn't get to 27 points until game 19 and we didn't go beyond 27 points until game 28!!! In effect the next 13 games last season was when our really bad run occured.

 

2016/17				2017/18
	Lge Pos	Lge Pts			Lge Pos	Lge Pts
Game 1	5	3		Game 1	1	3
Game 2	2	6		Game 2	10	3
Game 3	8	6		Game 3	9	4
Game 4	10	6		Game 4	11	5
Game 5	6	9		Game 5	13	6
Game 6	9	10		Game 6	9	9
Game 7	13	10		Game 7	12	10
Game 8	12	11		Game 8	8	13
Game 9	10	14		Game 9	8	14
Game 10	6	17		Game 10	7	17
Game 11	5	20		Game 11	4	20
Game 12	5	20		Game 12	4	21
Game 13	7	20		Game 13	7	21
Game 14	6	23		Game 14	4	24
Game 15	6	24		Game 15	4	27
Game 16	9	24
Game 17	10	24
Game 18	13	24
Game 19	11	27
Game 20	14	27
Game 21	15	27
Game 22	16	27
Game 23	17	27
Game 24	17	27
Game 25	18	27
Game 26	19	27
Game 27	20	27
Game 28	20	28
Game 29	20	31
Game 30	20	32
Game 31	20	32
Game 32	21	32
Game 33	21	33
Game 34	21	33
Game 35	22	34
Game 36	22	35
Game 37	21	38
Game 38	19	41
Game 39	21	41
Game 40	21	41
Game 41	21	44
Game 42	18	47
Game 43	18	48
Game 44	17	51
Game 45	17	54
Game 46	17	54

 

31 games to get 26 points...though even I think we will break through that 60 point mark this time around..!

[Redstreet]

4 hours ago, Robbored said:

It certainly does 'feel' better than last season. Everything seem different about Citys performances and to me that's partly down to the high pressing game which is so effective especially in away games. To employ that type of game you need an energetic team and the whole squad looks fitter and that must stem from the work done up at Failand.

The Cardiff game will  be tough test on Saturday and I'd settle for a point right now.

Fitness and energy / organisation levels noticeably improved on last year . The running / chasing back at Fulham was tremendous , a point noted by Fulham fans sat by me. Pack.  Smith and Brownhill plagued Cairney and their mid field movements all night . A good game by Pack who chased all game . Also Bobby Reid  covering back was immense . The collective  energy and supporting each other is a long way ahead of last season 

[Merrick's Marvels]

Comparing league position is irrelevant as it depends entirely on how everyone else is performing - and so is beyond our control.

For signs of improvement, look at what we can control:

Have we scored more goals or kept more clean sheets?

What's our points per game ratio?

Are we holding onto leads rather than chucking them away?

Can we beat bloody Cardiff??

Most of the above look positive at the moment.

Can we continue in the same vein?  It'll be especially encouraging if we can thrive while missing Baker, Pisano, Diedhou - all first choices; if we can "get away with" playing a centre back at right back; if Reid keeps scoring; if O'Dowda can maintain his current form; if, if, if...

[Merrick's Marvels]

4 hours ago, Robbored said:

It certainly does 'feel' better than last season. Everything seem different about Citys performances and to me that's partly down to the high pressing game which is so effective especially in away games. To employ that type of game you need an energetic team and the whole squad looks fitter and that must stem from the work done up at Failand.

The Cardiff game will  be tough test on Saturday and I'd settle for a point right now.

 

11 minutes ago, Redstreet said:

Fitness and energy / organisation levels noticeably improved on last year . The running / chasing back at Fulham was tremendous , a point noted by Fulham fans sat by me. Pack.  Smith and Brownhill plagued Cairney and their mid field movements all night . A good game by Pack who chased all game . Also Bobby Reid  covering back was immense . The collective  energy and supporting each other is a long way ahead of last season 

According to the Post (and so open to doubt, but let's go with it) Bobby Reid made the most tackles of any City player on Tuesday night.

What other team is getting that sort of energy and commitment from their striker/top scorer, I wonder?

[Redstreet]

5 minutes ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

 

According to the Post (and so open to doubt, but let's go with it) Bobby Reid made the most tackles of any City player on Tuesday night.

What other team is getting that sort of energy and commitment from their striker/top scorer, I wonder?

Reid and in fact the whole team embarrassed Fulham completely by the collective will and throwing themselves into the fight at every oppoetunity . Bodes well for the future . 

[NickJ]

7 hours ago, Devereux said:

 

 

Well if the wheels do start to fall of starting this Saturday I think the finger of blame can safely be pointed in your direction. laugh

IMO we do not show any sign of that that happening, whereas this time last season some were still saying that it felt as though we were in a false position.

And there were those who said, me included in a big way, that we had a poor manager. Credit must be given where due and I think the management performance - by which I mean the overall management not just the head coach - in many ways has improved significantly.

 

[havanatopia]

Lee Tomlin, I believe, is the major difference this season. I know we can talk about all the other factors and they are relevant but the calming influence of Tomlin, not being around, is probably significant. 

[Malago]

We’ll have a better idea of where we are when we’ve played Cardiff, Sheff U and Boro.