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An interesting problem in January


Midlands Robin

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This isn't so much about where we need to strengthen the squad when the transfer window opens in January but more about the philosophy we employ in that process. If, when January comes around, we are still maintaining our great run of form and are well embedded in the top 6 the focus will rightly be on maintaining that push for promotion. So far, most of the players we have signed have been brought in with a view to developing the squad and having a bit of time in order to grow as a team. The focus when the transfer window opens would naturally switch to bringing in players that can have an immediate impact and enhance what we already have.

I would also argue that at this stage there are two types of squad that come out of this period, the first is a squad more than capable of achieving promotion but the second is the squad that could survive in the Premier League. I don't see the two types of squad as the same thing. In past years clubs would tend to yo-yo up and down until they either ran out of cash or settled in the Prem for a few years. Recently it looks like clubs have been far better prepared for life in the Prem by building a Premiership standard squad far earlier. Now this is a big call that the club need to make. A number of clubs at this stage have risked a lot financially in the hope of sustaining that challenge. Bournemouth spring to mind here. The advantage of starting to build a Premiership squad at this stage is that you may get a better deal on the players you sign and that you have time to bed them in before promotion leading to a more coherent squad going forward. The disadvantage if you don't achieve promotion could be that you have some unhappy players on pretty hefty wages and contracts that are going to find themselves in the Championship for another season and may be blocking the way forward in the team for a number of other players or potential new signings. This is where we ended up after 07/08.

The problem of leaving any potential Premiership standard signings until after promotion is confirmed is that, with the way agents operate, the prices for players go up dramatically. Also, the club has a far shorter time to find the right people and gel them into a team. New signings at this stage could also upset those who have put in the hard yards in getting the club promoted and upset the balance and morale of the team. 

So my question is, what philosophy does the club employ when considering transfers in January? Will we look at promotion as realistic and push the boat out a little further (something perhaps we failed to do in the mid point of the 07/08 season) or will we be more cautious and continue with our developmental approach to squad signings? It's an interesting problem for LJ and the board. 

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If we are still in the top 6 come January I don't see that we need to do that much to be honest. A right back is probably needed and another body in central midfield would also be nice, but I think the club needs to stick to its philosophy; is the player going to add value now, be more valuable later and do they have the "right DNA"? I think that mortgaging our philosophy against a big name player is a dangerous game to play. But obviously if a Premier League quality player is available for a good price and they'll fit the squad, get them in 

Personally, I think if anyone comes in it'll be a Premier League loan or a player on an expiring contract who can be got on the cheap. If we sign more than 3 players I'd be very surprised 

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For me the answer is somewhere between the two. As said above it would be wise to stick with the idea of buying players who's value can go up, not just because it makes business sense but also footballing sense. Look at Brownhill, Bryan, perhaps O'Dowda certainly the first two can improve further and go and do a good job at Premier League level. Buying them when they can still develop allows us to yes get them cheaper on lower wages but also add elements to their game we feel necessary to play how we like. The difference this Jan could be we have a bigger scope of player available as we can sell the prem push and invest more into it, so rather than buy someone who needs a season at champ level we buy someone who is champ ready who we think can then go on and develop into that premier league player.

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My thoughts would be @Midlands Robin that there are 10 games (including Villa on the 1st) between now and January, I think those will have a huge impact on which course of action we take. It's a good debate, I think it might just be a bit early. I would imagine that from everything we know about MA and LJ and the team around them, that they are probably preparing scenarios for every outcome. 

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There's an old saying "Horses for courses", nothing to do with our "friends" at the Mem by the way.

Translated into football terminology, a team is built to get it promotion because while the perceived quality is better, higher up the league, all of the leagues in the English game,  require different approaches to being successful.

For example, to play slow, passing around the back three/four/five as many Premier clubs do would be pretty useless in the National League where the emphasis is much more physical.

So to recruit all Premier players to win the Championship, may not be the best way of doing it. Thus it's always been my belief that a club must gather together a squad of players that are experienced in the league in which they are with a very big caveat.

That the majority of the players are considered to be capable of improving quickly at the next level up. And as the performances of the team are not solely down to the squad, a coaching staff who will similarly adapt to new tactics and problems. That is a big ask for any club like City who haven't achieved the final step up for forty years.

On the positive side after the problems of the first season up, we are now seeing the real improvement of players in our squad from last season. Not only their own performances are more consistent but also the teamwork is considerably better. If, and at the moment it is a big if, we did win promotion in May 2018, it would be very tough to have a squad that, in the majority, would be able to raise performances enough over 38 games, to give us a realistic chance of staying up.

But we will never know until we get there. It may need a spell of the "Burnley" bounce or we could be as successful as Bournemouth / Swansea. Should be an interesting next two or three years for City and the fans.

PS. We want players who have the capacity for improvement in their top two inches.

 

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1 hour ago, Midlands Robin said:

This isn't so much about where we need to strengthen the squad when the transfer window opens in January but more about the philosophy we employ in that process. If, when January comes around, we are still maintaining our great run of form and are well embedded in the top 6 the focus will rightly be on maintaining that push for promotion. So far, most of the players we have signed have been brought in with a view to developing the squad and having a bit of time in order to grow as a team. The focus when the transfer window opens would naturally switch to bringing in players that can have an immediate impact and enhance what we already have.

I would also argue that at this stage there are two types of squad that come out of this period, the first is a squad more than capable of achieving promotion but the second is the squad that could survive in the Premier League. I don't see the two types of squad as the same thing. In past years clubs would tend to yo-yo up and down until they either ran out of cash or settled in the Prem for a few years. Recently it looks like clubs have been far better prepared for life in the Prem by building a Premiership standard squad far earlier. Now this is a big call that the club need to make. A number of clubs at this stage have risked a lot financially in the hope of sustaining that challenge. Bournemouth spring to mind here. The advantage of starting to build a Premiership squad at this stage is that you may get a better deal on the players you sign and that you have time to bed them in before promotion leading to a more coherent squad going forward. The disadvantage if you don't achieve promotion could be that you have some unhappy players on pretty hefty wages and contracts that are going to find themselves in the Championship for another season and may be blocking the way forward in the team for a number of other players or potential new signings. This is where we ended up after 07/08.

The problem of leaving any potential Premiership standard signings until after promotion is confirmed is that, with the way agents operate, the prices for players go up dramatically. Also, the club has a far shorter time to find the right people and gel them into a team. New signings at this stage could also upset those who have put in the hard yards in getting the club promoted and upset the balance and morale of the team. 

So my question is, what philosophy does the club employ when considering transfers in January? Will we look at promotion as realistic and push the boat out a little further (something perhaps we failed to do in the mid point of the 07/08 season) or will we be more cautious and continue with our developmental approach to squad signings? It's an interesting problem for LJ and the board. 

every squad can be strengthen regardless who who's actually in the team,

Man City have got arguably one of the best strikers in agaro, it wouldn't stop them buying Kane,

The important thing for us now, like you've mentioned is to improve on what we got, but we are short in central midfield, and both fall backs, thats where the attention in Jan needs to focus, 

good post by the way

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On the whole, if you're buying players in January it usually means you screwed up in the summer. I suspect we brought the Djuric and Hegeler transfers forward last January because the team was struggling, whilst Taylor was an opportunistic raid.

There may be one or two that are either unexpected opportunities, or brought forward to push the squad forward quickly, but I'd not expect much business in January and any signings will likely be part of the plan and ones that have been watched for a while.

We don't urgently need to strengthen in any areas and making short-term transfers to fix a problem quickly can have as negative an impact as positive. Some say we failed to win promotion in 2008 because we didn't strengthen enough in January, but there's an equally strong argument that the signings of Carle and particularly Adebola unbalanced the side and changed the style of play away from what had been successful up to that point.

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There is also the fact we have to hang on to what we have got as low end prem teams will need a desperate push to stay up and similar team to us will be eying our players up too. But if we are still in a good position I don't think either of those situations will be enough to tempt our players away.

I would be interested though to see who we are linked with realistically if we are still up there. Surely we are at our most attractive, a very different case from last season. 

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Don't think fees would be the issue - it's the Wages structure that would be the biggest obstacle 

SL / MA etc have made it quite clear that they are not going to throw ridiculous wages around , which is sensible , but if we hope to attract some quality in January for a push can you see us breaking our Wage structure to do so -? 

I don't see it personally  (And can't say I disagree with that - long term view / Club health etc)

That's what will have a bearing on our potential recruitment above our attractiveness to players or fees , I'd suggest 

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I spoke to Steve about this after we had been promoted under John Ward, then relegated again.  We bought Ade Akinbyi, Tony Thorpe, Soren Anderson and I think a few others.  Steve's view is that we failed because we changed to much.  He is probably right and perhaps may be reluctant to make the same mistake again.

We may need to bring in players to cover injuries and can't keep playing Bailey at RB as we are missing an attacking threat from that area.

A tough midfielder would be a useful squad addition.

We will only be able to tell which players can survive in the prem if we get there, but we haven't done too badly against prem opposition so far this season.

We also probably need to blood our 2 young full backs to see if they are ready with a few sub appearances.

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We are nowhere near ready for the Prem. I would much prefer to develop the players we have with a couple of decent seasons towards the top and see what happens then. We are only beginning to see the potential turning into reality. Splashing huge amounts of cash is not the answer.

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40 minutes ago, DOLMANDAN said:

What i think about is how much would Mr Lansdown be willing to pay if we ever went to the prem the reason being is the egg chasers got promoted and the squad was not strengthened at all is he more committed to the football ??

I don't agree he prioritises football but what happened and is happening with Bristol Rugby may have a bearing.

Because of the play-offs and not gaining promotion until very late, all the really good rugby players were gone so Bristol did try to improve the squad but not the top class players needed - sure enough next season straight back down with a disappointing campaign.

This season, now back in the Championship but with no play-offs so auto-promotion now a route back to the Prem, we are seeing heavy investment in a very respected coach and a massive squad with many more internationals, building for promotion and presumably a sustained stay in the Prem.

If the football team follows the same methodology; we should be looking to strengthen to get up and stay there and not yo-yo down with a nice parachute payment and then try again.  I would imagine if we are in the top 8 at xmas we may see 2 or 3 real quality signings or prem loan players where we pay a "fee" to set-up the loan (with LJ still at the helm before anybody picks up on the coach comment from the last para)

 

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If we are still in the top 6 in January and the injured players are coming back, do we need anyone else? Our defence is decent, were scoring goals all over the pitch. In the 07/08 season we didnt have any particular high goal scorer that season and thats where we fell short. I still feel if we had paid the money and brought in Kevin Phillips in that January we would have gone up automatically.

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6 minutes ago, Fatalist said:

We are nowhere near ready for the Prem. I would much prefer to develop the players we have with a couple of decent seasons towards the top and see what happens then. We are only beginning to see the potential turning into reality. Splashing huge amounts of cash is not the answer.

Agreed, the Swansea/Burnley model im a big admirer of.

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12 minutes ago, Fatalist said:

We are nowhere near ready for the Prem. I would much prefer to develop the players we have with a couple of decent seasons towards the top and see what happens then. We are only beginning to see the potential turning into reality. Splashing huge amounts of cash is not the answer.

If we don’t go up then we have to hope that the players are really committed to the club and the ‘project’ otherwise they leave, we start again and potentially have another season like last season whilst the new players with potential take time to gain experience. I’m not convinced we have 3 or 4 out of the first team at the moment ready to step up if our better players leave.

If it is possible for us to pick up one or two additions that improve the quality of the squad whilst maintaining dressing room harmony to have a good go at promotion in my opinion that would be the way to go. 

Who these players are, from where they may come and whether or not we can afford them is the obvious issue with this!

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When we get promoted to the Prem we will need to bring in two or three Prem quality players  to steady the ship .

( What's Norman Hunter doing these days ? ) 

For this season's push , a right back evidently, a central midfielder and perhaps two or three more centre backs . 

OK , forget the centre backs for now .

All this with an eye to enhancing the quality of the football that we have already.

I am a little concerned that our high energy pressing game may see some players either injured or simply blown out before the end of the season . 

We need quality in the squad to maintain the performance levels . 

Evolution not revolution is my preferred method.

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54 minutes ago, Fatalist said:

We are nowhere near ready for the Prem. I would much prefer to develop the players we have with a couple of decent seasons towards the top and see what happens then. We are only beginning to see the potential turning into reality. Splashing huge amounts of cash is not the answer.

I really don't care if we are ready or not.....if we get promoted it will be because we are good enough and certainly more ready than those who don't go up.

We can use the millions we receive to strengthen the squad over the summer. 

Also, the loyal and long suffering fans of Bristol City deserve to experience the excitement of playing in the Prem with all those brilliant fixtures. 

If we lose games and come down the following season who cares.......we would have had a blast for 10 months!

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1 minute ago, Lew-T said:

Three players for me. An experienced head in the midfield, potentially another full back? The most important one for me though is another striker.

The latter would be a loan from a Premier League club i’d imagine.

disagree, any striker on loan from the prem will be unfit or inexperienced, if we sign a striker we would have to spend serious money to do it and they have to be an improvement not just to make up numbers 

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6 minutes ago, Top Robin said:

I really don't care if we are ready or not.....if we get promoted it will be because we are good enough and certainly more ready than those who don't go up.

We can use the millions we receive to strengthen the squad over the summer. 

Also, the loyal and long suffering fans of Bristol City deserve to experience the excitement of playing in the Prem with all those brilliant fixtures. 

If we lose games and come down the following season who cares.......we would have had a blast for 10 months!

And be £100m better off!

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2 hours ago, BCFC_Dan said:

On the whole, if you're buying players in January it usually means you screwed up in the summer. I suspect we brought the Djuric and Hegeler transfers forward last January because the team was struggling, whilst Taylor was an opportunistic raid.

There may be one or two that are either unexpected opportunities, or brought forward to push the squad forward quickly, but I'd not expect much business in January and any signings will likely be part of the plan and ones that have been watched for a while.

We don't urgently need to strengthen in any areas and making short-term transfers to fix a problem quickly can have as negative an impact as positive. Some say we failed to win promotion in 2008 because we didn't strengthen enough in January, but there's an equally strong argument that the signings of Carle and particularly Adebola unbalanced the side and changed the style of play away from what had been successful up to that point.

Well I will always be of the view that if only GJ has signed a real goal scorer (not Adebola as well liked as he was) in Jan 2008 then we would have gone on to finish top two and made it to the Prem. 

I hope that LJ won't be too sentimental about potentially upsetting the squad by bringing in a high wages player or two in Jan, to see us over the line, especially if loans. Bakery Sako would be my choice from Palace, although others have mentioned Danny Ings.

Anyhow, first of all we have to maintain our form and we have 10 league matches between now and Jan 1st. IF we are still solid in the top 6 and within a few points of 2nd then I hope we go for broke and expect SL will finance that.

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2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

Well I will always be of the view that if only GJ has signed a real goal scorer (not Adebola as well liked as he was) in Jan 2008 then we would have gone on to finish top two and made it to the Prem. 

I hope that LJ won't be too sentimental about potentially upsetting the squad by bringing in a high wages player or two in Jan, to see us over the line, especially if loans. Bakery Sako would be my choice from Palace, although others have mentioned Danny Ings.

Anyhow, first of all we have to maintain our form and we have 10 league matches between now and Jan 1st. IF we are still solid in the top 6 and within a few points of 2nd then I hope we go for broke and expect SL will finance that.

I'm afraid I am going to repeat what I say every time this comes up. Of strikers signed by Championship clubs that January only one scored more goals than Dele.

Ironically, that was Leroy Lita.

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2 hours ago, old_eastender said:

Anyhow, first of all we have to maintain our form and we have 10 league matches between now and Jan 1st. IF we are still solid in the top 6 and within a few points of 2nd then I hope we go for broke and expect SL will finance that.

Totally agree.

As I have said previously every season that passes makes it harder to get out of this league. The finances of those that have been in the EPL, even for one season, are so different to the ones that haven't. We could fill AG every home game, sell all the corporate stuff, sponsorship etc BUT that revenue would be dwarfed by a newly relegated EPL team - and that is the sad reality.

I don't advocate entirely ignoring FFP , unlike QPR, B'mouth and Wolves, however I think we need to whatever we can to give us the best shot of getting into the EPL as soon as possible, and I think we will.

I don't think the money spent by the owner on AG was to play in Div 2!

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9 hours ago, DOLMANDAN said:

What i think about is how much would Mr Lansdown be willing to pay if we ever went to the prem the reason being is the egg chasers got promoted and the squad was not strengthened at all is he more committed to the football ??

When we lost in the play off final in 2008 Mr Lansdown said the manager could have all of the TV money!

30 Million at that time. Things move on and the TV money is now 100 Million so I would guess at a figure somewhere in between these two  

 

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