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Charting out the season

redsapper

By redsapper
in Football Chat

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redsontour

redsontour

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Robbored said:

We don't need a chart to know what the club are aiming for and neither does LJ.

At the start of every season the aim - for all clubs is to finish as high up as possible.

City are doing pretty well so far and if we are still in the frame come Feb/March then the aim wil become promotion.

It ain't rocket science ffs........:facepalm:

Bless you Robbo...As we know, you don't really go big on history....

Of course, one could also say that as a retired healthcare professional (I believe, apologies if incorrect), you also don't really specialise in the science of probability.

So, from a rocket science perspective, FFS or otherwise, you are wrong there as well. Probability actually is rocket science.

For example, I would say it was extremely likely (based on the historical data) that more posters will come on the forum and call you an arse, than call you a genius

 

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Robbored

Robbored

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, redsontour said:

Bless you Robbo...As we know, you don't really go big on history....

Of course, one could also say that as a retired healthcare professional (I believe, apologies if incorrect), you also don't really specialise in the science of probability.

So, from a rocket science perspective, FFS or otherwise, you are wrong there as well. Probability actually is rocket science.

For example, I would say it was extremely likely (based on the historical data) that more posters will come on the forum and call you an arse, than call you a genius

 

Jeez.............:facepalm:

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redsontour

redsontour

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Jeez.............:facepalm:

Seriously, you ask questions such as "I sometimes wonder why some posters come up with so say 'interesting ' stats that are completely and utterly useless" and have a signature in Latin that means "let others be heard"

So, as you seem to be on a bit of a short leash today, explain to the whole class why the use of statistics to demonstrate progress against a target is both a) not interesting and b) utterly useless?

As for me...I don't really go in for the pretentious signature, but, if I did I would probably sign it with...Ascendo tuum

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cider-manc

cider-manc

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Robbored said:

We don't need a chart to know what the club are aiming for and neither does LJ.

At the start of every season the aim - for all clubs is to finish as high up as possible.

City are doing pretty well so far and if we are still in the frame come Feb/March then the aim wil become promotion.

It ain't rocket science ffs........:facepalm:

I'm not particularly interested in these charts- I simply offered you a suggested answer to your question, there is frankly no need to be condescending.

 

I don't know why I'm going to explain again... but here goes...

How many times a season do we hear managers in the prem say something along the lines of "Lets get to 40 points first and take it from there..." they haven't pulled that 40 points target out of thin air.

The club will have a target at the beginning of the season. And they will know the level of points required to be in and around that target, they will get that target from previous seasons averages. That target may rise or fall during the season but they will still have a revised points target which will (in part) be determined by previous seasons. 

You've also conveniently ignored that it shows City have made progress on last season.... imo the most important thing the chart shows.

 

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Lrrr

Lrrr

Posted
Posted

If anyones watched moneyball, the scene in the scouting room where they're talking about how many wins they need to make the post season/how many runs to win those games. Similar gets applied to football. Teams who are eyeing promotion/avoiding relegation will look at points totals required over previous seasons for their aim and where they're likely to get their points from, this is where we see squad rotation etc because some games are more winnable. 

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PHILINFRANCE

PHILINFRANCE

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, redsontour said:

Seriously, you ask questions such as "I sometimes wonder why some posters come up with so say 'interesting ' stats that are completely and utterly useless" and have a signature in Latin that means "let others be heard"

So, as you seem to be on a bit of a short leash today, explain to the whole class why the use of statistics to demonstrate progress against a target is both a) not interesting and b) utterly useless?

As for me...I don't really go in for the pretentious signature, but, if I did I would probably sign it with...Ascendo tuum

I would be tempted to say you have forgotten/omitted the object, or even tu quoque, but shall let it slide as I agree with the sentiment of your post ;).

You aren't another one of those ex spinis uvas types are you?

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Robbored

Robbored

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, cider-manc said:

I'm not particularly interested in these charts- I simply offered you a suggested answer to your question, there is frankly no need to be condescending.

 

I don't know why I'm going to explain again... but here goes...

How many times a season do we hear managers in the prem say something along the lines of "Lets get to 40 points first and take it from there..." they haven't pulled that 40 points target out of thin air.

The club will have a target at the beginning of the season. And they will know the level of points required to be in and around that target, they will get that target from previous seasons averages. That target may rise or fall during the season but they will still have a revised points target which will (in part) be determined by previous seasons. 

You've also conveniently ignored that it shows City have made progress on last season.... imo the most important thing the chart shows.

 

Thanks for that.......

There really was no need tho.....

As for the points target - that's obviously evidence based on a number of previous seasons and most of us know that 50 points is a kind of benchmark. Reach that and you should be safe from the drop.

We dont need a chart to appreciate that.

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Robbored

Robbored

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, RUSSEL85 said:

Just checked on Sky Bet, and we are 5/6 for a play off spot & 7/2 for promotion, its quite exciting this season isnt it? In all seriousness though, if we finish 8th to 10th thats a very good season, and we will only get better should we keep hold of our best players.

The bookies know how to asses potential and set the odds accordingly so it's no surprise to see those odds. 

Theres still another 29 matches to go so those odds will no doubt vary. 

It we finish 8th -10th I think I'd be disappointed not reaching the top 6 having got so close!

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Lrrr

Lrrr

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Robbored said:

The bookies know how to asses potential and set the odds accordingly so it's no surprise to see those odds. 

Theres still another 29 matches to go so those odds will no doubt vary. 

It we finish 8th -10th I think I'd be disappointed not reaching the top 6 having got so close!

You're not the only one whose said this, using your post as its the most recent. I think the highlighted part shows largely what's wrong with a chunk of our fanbase. Being disappointed with an 8th-10th finish would essentially say that we've failed this season. We've fought relegation since returning to this division, an 8th-10th place finish can't really be considered a failure unless we lost like our last 6 games to finish there, if we were to slowly decline from here and finish 8th-10th it would still be a successful season.  

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Robbored

Robbored

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, hodge said:

You're not the only one whose said this, using your post as its the most recent. I think the highlighted part shows largely what's wrong with a chunk of our fanbase. Being disappointed with an 8th-10th finish would essentially say that we've failed this season. We've fought relegation since returning to this division, an 8th-10th place finish can't really be considered a failure unless we lost like our last 6 games to finish there, if we were to slowly decline from here and finish 8th-10th it would still be a successful season.  

I wouldn't see a 8th-10th finish as a failure at all. Being a disappointed isn't quite the same 

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Busterrimes

Busterrimes

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, hodge said:

You're not the only one whose said this, using your post as its the most recent. I think the highlighted part shows largely what's wrong with a chunk of our fanbase. Being disappointed with an 8th-10th finish would essentially say that we've failed this season. We've fought relegation since returning to this division, an 8th-10th place finish can't really be considered a failure unless we lost like our last 6 games to finish there, if we were to slowly decline from here and finish 8th-10th it would still be a successful season.  

Totally agree, before a ball was kicked I said I would be content with 15th and not having to worry about relegation as that was progress on the past two seasons. We should not allow our great start to suddenly raise early expectations. 8 to 10th would be a good finish as attendance and budget wise that is where we should be.

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Silvio Dante

Silvio Dante

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Robbored said:

The bookies know how to asses potential and set the odds accordingly so it's no surprise to see those odds. 

Theres still another 29 matches to go so those odds will no doubt vary. 

It we finish 8th -10th I think I'd be disappointed not reaching the top 6 having got so close!

Sorry, as you picked on the spelling of @JamesBCFC....

"Asses Potential?"

Sounds like a film @Rudolf Hucker would be interested in....

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redsontour

redsontour

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Robbored said:

The bookies know how to asses potential and set the odds accordingly so it's no surprise to see those odds. 

Seriously Robbo, putting aside the spelling, you come on this forum saying that historical charting and charting is ridiculous and irrelevant and then proceed to talk about bookies knowing how to set odds...you do know why that is don’t you??  :grr:

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Robbored

Robbored

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, redsontour said:

Seriously Robbo, putting aside the spelling, you come on this forum saying that historical charting and charting is ridiculous and irrelevant and then proceed to talk about bookies knowing how to set odds...you do know why that is don’t you??  :grr:

Bookies use very simple methods in deciding odds. 

With football and as the fixtures go by teams will emerge (like us) and if you're higher up the table you'll get shorter odds.

Theres not much historical material in the betting odds. 

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redsontour

redsontour

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Bookies use very simple methods in deciding odds. 

With football and as the fixtures go by teams will emerge (like us) and if you're higher up the table you'll get shorter odds.

Theres not much historical material in the betting odds. 

Oh come on, if you are going to talk out of your asses, at least give it a try.

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