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Sky Sports Championship Predictor 4th !


cheshire_red

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The Sky Sports predictor is based on a system called Elo, originally set up to rate chess players. It takes into account form, who your team still has left to play, and how well a team has done in previous seasons.

I don't really see the previous seasons performance as being relevant - This season vs last is "night and day" for us and arguably Villa too.

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Shame that Experimental361 is finding it hard to produce his usual predictor. He was more accurate than any bookies last season and at no point did he predict we would go down.  I think he has said that he will publish one as soon as he can but he just can't find the time to crunch the data this season.

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I would take 4th now but I think we can do better with players coming back and possibly another couple recruits. Sure we lost a couple lately but one was to the probable champions(where we probably should have won and did not deserve to lose) and the other was after an extremely difficult month with a decimated squad. 

Anyway, think we know how to win games now. We drew a lot of matches to start the season. I think we are good for 3 in many of those now. Time to prove it Saturday though. Also, if we can get anything out of the Derby match then we will be in a really good spot as we will have played the best(imo) teams outside of us twice already. If we can beat the teams we should, I think we have a great chance at second. 

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These machines can’t take into account loss or gain of form, transfers, injuries etc.

What it tells us though is that, if all else stays the same, we need to up our game a little to come second - but we know that. 

Players to return and players to come in will help with that, because I think we’ve done amazingly well to be where we are given the injuries and games played. 

So we can get better and I imagine the fight for 2nd will be very very close and might come down to mental strength over the last few games of the season.

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9 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

So we can get better and I imagine the fight for 2nd will be very very close and might come down to mental strength over the last few games of the season.

Goal difference as well.  Just looking at our results and we haven't really stuffed anyone to nil yet this season.  Lots of 2-1 wins but no big 4-0, 5-0 smashings.  Would be great if we could put in one or two of those over the last 20-odd matches.  I know you still get three points but it would be great for morale.

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11 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

Haha...much rather have Djuric back tbh. Aside from long term injuries we dont have enough depth in quality in squad to cover for injuries & suspensions. Need to sign 2 more 1st team ready players to have that.

I worry about balancing the squad if we have too many people. If we sign another midfielder, how do you keep Brownhill, Pato, Eliasson, Pack, Smith, Walsh and O’Dowda happy? Another striker and we have Reid, Diedhiou, Djuric, Taylor and Engvall. Another defender and one of Baker, Flint or Wright misses out. 

I’m glad it’s not my job.

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Maybe this team is the one to finally bring us play-off success. Been a long time coming. I reckon this team may finally erase the memory of Walsall, Cardiff, Hull, Brighton (especially Brighton - that was the worst feeling). I’d prefer 2nd, but beating, say, Villa and Cardiff in the play offs would be a great way to do it! 

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I think we can only improve throughout the 2nd half of the season, we will have new signings (Walsh plus one or two more), we will have players returning from injury, the Cup run (after Wembley) will be out of the way, an we will have bags of confidence. Add bumper City crowds both home and away, and second spot is on. 

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20 minutes ago, old_eastender said:

Haha...much rather have Djuric back tbh

I think if I had a magic wand and bring one of them back to fitness I'd probably pick Diedhiou. 

It's not that I don't like Djuric I just think that Famara is a more complete striker and I felt that he and Reid had a good partnership going in the early autumn.  Djuric is great as an option but when he plays we tend to resort to long balls up and become quite one-dimensional.  It's been a while since we saw it but IIRC with Diedhiou we played the ball on the deck but crucially had an option to whip crosses onto his head or play the odd long-ball that he could hold up and lay-off to Reid.

For me Diedhiou will have the greater impact on his return. Fingers crossed.

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To my mind, we are a better side than Cardiff and Sheffield United. Leeds and Villa have struggled for consistency and Middlesbrough are adrift. I don't see anyone below 8th finishing above us AND us getting to the play-offs so I think the race for second comes down to which out of Derby, Villa and us maintains the most consistent run of form and, if all of us drop off, whether Pulis pulls up trees at Boro. I actually broadly agree with the predictor (save that I'd swap Cardiff and Villa around) but a 19% chance of second place is actually not a bad chance at all. 

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2 hours ago, eardun said:

Maybe this team is the one to finally bring us play-off success. Been a long time coming. I reckon this team may finally erase the memory of Walsall, Cardiff, Hull, Brighton (especially Brighton - that was the worst feeling). I’d prefer 2nd, but beating, say, Villa and Cardiff in the play offs would be a great way to do it! 

in some ways it must be the best way to go up, can't imagine how it would feel coming back to Bristol after a win at Wembley in front of over 40,000, certainly know how it feels to come back after losing never want that feeling again.

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3 hours ago, The Bard said:

We're bound to play Cardiff in the play offs then Villa at Wembley where we'll win 2-1 thus having the last laugh after the 5-0 defeat the other week.

Rather it was the other way round and we stuff Cardiff at Wembley to go up. How sweet would that be. 

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