Success

[Esmond Million's Bung]

I think most of us will agree that so far we have had an unbelievable and probably unexpected season.

I for one would have settled for mid table flirting with a chance of the play offs.

But has our success and the rise to 2nd in the table and for once the plaudits of the so called experts given us a problem?.

And that problem is surely which route do we now choose?.

Do we go for it financially in this window or stick to the plan?. Neither of course can guarantee success but one might give us a better chance obviously.

For me our real problems are going to occur once the season is over, if we miss automatic promotion, fail in the play offs or even fail to make the play offs, will the now backbone/experienced and most talented players want away especially given the experience of prem opposition in the league cup.

Flint, Baker, Bryan and Reid, imagine losing all 4?, IMO it would be almost like a starting from a scratch position for us and instead of building upon the success of this season, we will be rebuilding once more. I believe sadly that we could probably allow Flint and Bryan to leave and still push on but losing all 4 would be a disaster.

So are we going to be the Crewe of the championship? or the Bournemouth of the championship?, it is a fine line and a realisation of how far we have progressed in such a short time and the problems that that success brings, it’s never easy is it?.

[Alex_BCFC]

Stick with the plan. It might take another 3 years but we are heading the right way. 

Good players come and go but our overall strategy looks good to me - pick up young quality players. We only sell for crazy money like Kodjia so not everyone will go at once. I really don't think Baker or Reid will go anywhere either. Bryan maybe and Flint is less likely than it was but still it's possible. 

[marmite]

4 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said:

Stick with the plan. It might take another 3 years but we are heading the right way. 

Good players come and go but our overall strategy looks good to me - pick up young quality players. We only sell for crazy money like Kodjia so not everyone will go at once. I really don't think Baker or Reid will go anywhere either. Bryan maybe and Flint is less likely than it was but still it's possible. 

Agree, stick with the plan. We survived losing Kodjia and we survived losing Tammy. Others will come through or in to replace them. The club is getting the whole set up right at last but it won't guarantee instant success. Lets all be just a little bit patient.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

5 minutes ago, Alex_BCFC said:

Stick with the plan. It might take another 3 years but we are heading the right way. 

Good players come and go but our overall strategy looks good to me - pick up young quality players. We only sell for crazy money like Kodjia so not everyone will go at once. I really don't think Baker or Reid will go anywhere either. Bryan maybe and Flint is less likely than it was but still it's possible. 

To be honest I am really having a problem deciding where I am with this.

I see your point but my problem will be in 3 years time we may have to sacrifice the next 4 backbone/experienced and talented players and then we fall into another 3 year rebuild, it could end up as a revolving door, that's why I said it's never easy and it's a big decision.

On the plus side for a change we do not have to panic sign players for short term survival, but we can be signing players that will still be relevant next season.

[marmite]

We've signed a lot of development youngsters over the past few years who are getting experience elsewhere. Some, but not all, will come through and fit into the first team. This is all part of the long term plan. If it works well, the revolving door will keep bringing quality in so we must trust in the club to follow through on the process they have started. It may take a few years to achieve success but you have to lay the foundations first.

[steveybadger]

Dare I say a bigger issue would be if LJ goes? 

[red panda]

We shouldn't beat ourselves up about selling players.  We should be pleased that players are improving here, and are doing well both personally and as part of a successful team that they become attractive to bigger clubs.  It's difficult to see a situation where the club does well and we don't have this "problem"

[Olé]

I also fear seeing this team broken up after this season, but I'm not sure what "going for it financially" would actually entail - and to what end?

We have a £5m striker back in a couple of weeks, to be followed by several other £1m+ first teamers. By our standards that will be incredible.

Short of spending outrageous (£10m a pop) sums on Premiership standard players, I'm unsure what we add other than numbers to the squad.

McIndoe makes this point about the mistake in 2007 but back then it was clear who was playing 'above their level' and where weak links were.

This is a better team, in my head we needed another option in midfield, a winger, and a target man. Like them or not, we've got the first two in.

As for up front, we have £7m+ worth of target man coming back soon enough. I don't think even Man City would panic buy for a months cover. 

[Red Army 87]

Similar feeling to when we missed out on the playoff final under GJ. It came quicker than expected and we didn’t know how to handle ourselves in the summer, spending incredible amounts of wages on has been players and getting it all wrong eventually.

The club now has a strategy and long term planning, which we never had previously. We shouldn’t panic after a few defeats. This is one of, if not the most competitive league in the world, with a ridiculous financial prize for being successful.

If we don’t make playoffs, I don’t think I will see it as us going backwards, the season is played over 46 games and if we aren’t good enough, we aren’t good enough. I have more trust now than 10 years ago that we will continue to progress and recruit wisely which in my opinion will bring reward and sustainability long term.

[ExiledAjax]

The Walsh signing shows that the club are sticking to the plan.  This is a plan that worked surprisingly well in the summer/autumn when we picked up some great wins (Ipswich, Hull, Sheff Utd, Man Utd).  However, I suspect the management felt we were punching above our weight.  

I think that we need most right now is a physical, goal-scoring, experienced striker.  Now that may be a new signing, or it may be Diedhiou (100+ games in Ligue 2, 6'3", 25, 6 in 13 for us) or Djuric (200+ games in Serie B/A, 6'7", 27, 3 in 19 for us).  Both those guys are exactly the sort of player I'd hope we were looking to sign.  Therefore I expect we won't see a big name striker come in - but it will depend on what we see in the medical room.

Once those guys - and Pisano and COD - are back then we should be in a great position to finish the season strongly.  Our last 10 games aren't against top teams so there is an opportunity to go on a little run there.  8 wins in the last ten might be enough to launch us into 2nd...but we may have to settle for hitting the play-offs in a rich vein of form - and that could also be very exciting.

Frankly, both of those end of season scenarios would constitute "success" given the parameters and targets at the beginning of the season.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

Flint, Baker, Bryan and Reid, imagine losing all 4?, IMO it would be almost like a starting from a scratch position for us and instead of building upon the success of this season, we will be rebuilding once more. I believe sadly that we could probably allow Flint and Bryan to leave and still push on but losing all 4 would be a disaster.

Mentioned on sub forum that I dont think it would be back to square one at all. Flint has already been replaced remember, he is playing so we can fill the right back slot with Bailey. I have no real concerns once we have a right back in Baker and Wright as a pairing. 

Joe is replaced by Maggs at LB (and the way HM has been improving I think I prefer him to Joe at lb), and then in LM there is Paterson when Bobby is second striker to Diedhou or Djuric. 

Bobby would be a big loss but if we keep Paterson he is good there and we have Kent to grow into LM role. 

Walsh is Pack's replacement. 

Losing all 4 doesn't cause me so much fear considering the replacements we already have here and the very significant funds it would release. I wouldn't want any to go this window, but in the summer I would be tempted to cash in on them all. 

[ExiledAjax]

2 minutes ago, 29AR said:

Losing all 4 doesn't cause me so much fear considering the replacements we already have here and the very significant funds it would release. 

Would £30-40m be an unreasonable expectation for all four?

I'd hate to see all four of them leave as I think those four plus FF and Smith are the core of the team that have been to the bottom of L1, Wembley, and the high reaches of the champ together...but if they have to go then that would be some serious £ to spend.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

25 minutes ago, steveybadger said:

Dare I say a bigger issue would be if LJ goes? 

He will only go if he believes that his visions are not being supported, he is not a fool and if he is going to leave it will be whilst his stock is high and not whilst it maybe into decline.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Would £30-40m be an unreasonable expectation for all four?

I'd hate to see all four of them leave as I think those four plus FF and Smith are the core of the team that have been to the bottom of L1, Wembley, and the high reaches of the champ together...but if they have to go then that would be some serious £ to spend.

Yeah I think so. JB has to be higher than Kodjia for me, Bobby perhaps around Kodjia's fee given contract situation, Flint £8m ballpark, Pack is one that's hard to know what would be paid for him. I would be hoping around £35m for all four.

With the replacements we have already here and settled, and that to spend, I think we could build a much better squad - during the summer. 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

9 minutes ago, 29AR said:

Mentioned on sub forum that I dont think it would be back to square one at all. Flint has already been replaced remember, he is playing so we can fill the right back slot with Bailey. I have no real concerns once we have a right back in Baker and Wright as a pairing. 

Joe is replaced by Maggs at LB (and the way HM has been improving I think I prefer him to Joe at lb), and then in LM there is Paterson when Bobby is second striker to Diedhou or Djuric. 

Bobby would be a big loss but if we keep Paterson he is good there and we have Kent to grow into LM role. 

Walsh is Pack's replacement. 

Losing all 4 doesn't cause me so much fear considering the replacements we already have here and the very significant funds it would release. I wouldn't want any to go this window, but in the summer I would be tempted to cash in on them all. 

Part of my problem is 'filling the right back slot' beyond this window which is the first opportunity to sign a specialist right back.

Secondly personally I don't have your faith in Magnússon and I don't think LJ does either, he is useful from the point of view that Vyner and Kelly are not yet ready to step up, he is useful in as much as it allows LJ to enact plan B and push Flint upfront and he is useful in as much as he's ours and the lesser of available evils, sorry that is my honest opinion, I don't think he is good enough.

As for the highlighted part I agree with the first sentence but I would only allow Flint and Bryan to leave, we really need to keep the other 2.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

4 minutes ago, 29AR said:

Yeah I think so. JB has to be higher than Kodjia for me, Bobby perhaps around Kodjia's fee given contract situation, Flint £8m ballpark, Pack is one that's hard to know what would be paid for him. I would be hoping around £35m for all four.

With the replacements we have already here and settled, and that to spend, I think we could build a much better squad - during the summer. 

I suppose my point should have been at the moment for the first time in a while we actually look like a team, 2 we could maybe lose and carry on in the same vein but 4 is a big ask to replace and keep the same team ethic alive.

Don't get me wrong I am loving the route that we are taking with the young signings but I just think we really need another striker and one for the here and now this time and that will cost, as I mentioned on another thread the imminent return of Diedhiou and Djuric is great but by the time one or either is fully fit another 6 to 8 games will have been entered into the record books.

As I said I am struggling to decide what route I would like us to go, but I do believe that we need a specialist right back (maybe a loan) and we need a quality striker to fill in whilst either Diedhiou or Djuric reach full fitness and to give us the viable striker options that are not available to us now.

In the long term also I believe that maybe a bit of ambition might especially if we have a near miss for promotion persuade all 4 to give it one more go next season, whereas if our progress dissolves into nothing because of a lack of ambition, we could lose all 4 and unsettle one or two others, I repeat it ain't easy but it's a big decision.

 

[Guest]

@Esmond Million's Bung I do agree, but for me we aren't losing 4 and replacing with new players to gel. Even though all 4 are starters, the way I see it we will have one unknown to bring in - LM or No.10 depending upon how we replace Joe/Bobby. If we were going out for four new players I would 100% share your concerns. 

Re HM you could well be right. I have found him excellent in the last 3 or so and quietly buiding up to then. Mind you, I thought he was incredible in his first few months here so I may be mistaken. When he came on yesterday he wasn't on long but his long range, quarterback-esque passing was pinpoint. 

[Inactive user]

1 hour ago, steveybadger said:

Dare I say a bigger issue would be if LJ goes? 

Agree. But we should have an infrastructure to cope.  Whether we have is another matter.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

7 minutes ago, 29AR said:

@Esmond Million's Bung I do agree, but for me we aren't losing 4 and replacing with new players to gel. Even though all 4 are starters, the way I see it we will have one unknown to bring in - LM or No.10 depending upon how we replace Joe/Bobby. If we were going out for four new players I would 100% share your concerns. 

Re HM you could well be right. I have found him excellent in the last 3 or so and quietly buiding up to then. Mind you, I thought he was incredible in his first few months here so I may be mistaken. When he came on yesterday he wasn't on long but his long range, quarterback-esque passing was pinpoint. 

For me far too casual, slow thinking and struggles in the more physical games, but hey as my all time football hero used to say "it's a funny old game", god bless you Jimmy Greaves.

One thing is for sure and that is as the old Chinese says “May you live in interesting times,”  BCFC certainly does at this point in it's history and for this long term supporter long may it continue, last night was only the 2nd time all season I went to bed totally pissed off the only other time was Birmingham away when we were abject.

[pillred]

1 hour ago, marmite said:

Agree, stick with the plan. We survived losing Kodjia and we survived losing Tammy. Others will come through or in to replace them. The club is getting the whole set up right at last but it won't guarantee instant success. Lets all be just a little bit patient.

problem I have is just think where we would be with either of those in our side at the moment.

[CliftonCliff]

It’s a dilemma, but the current regime hasn’t got too much wrong regarding player recruitment and retention over the last few transfer windows and I have far more confidence now in their ability to navigate a course through these potentially tricky waters than I would have had a year or two earlier.

Nobody has a crystal ball and you never know, but I think our anxiety is getting the better of us when we start fretting over a worst case scenario in which Flint. Bryan, Baker and Reid all leave: I would have thought this pretty unlikely, though I would concede that the departure of the first two would begin to feel inevitable if we’re still in the Championship next year - which I believe we will be. There has been interest in those two for quite some time and if anything they are both performing at an even better level now than they were back when that started. We will miss them a lot, as strong characters and committed team men as much as individual players, but though I’ll be really sad to see either one go, I don’t think their loss would fatally undermine the long term project.

Also, the stick or twist options as they are tending to be perceived are not necessarily mutually exclusive choices. I think it may be a bit of both: neither sticking rigidly to the emphasis on young potential nor throwing crazy sums at the problem but something in between the two. LJ is a flexible thinker. I remain hopeful in the face of this undeniably sticky patch. They will essentially hold to the core beliefs, but I would not be surprised by a big money signing of a proven player - and if that does happen, I think it will be a striker.....

 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

5 minutes ago, CliftonCliff said:

It’s a dilemma, but the current regime hasn’t got too much wrong regarding player recruitment and retention over the last few transfer windows and I have far more confidence now in their ability to navigate a course through these potentially tricky waters than I would have had a year or two earlier.

Nobody has a crystal ball and you never know, but I think our anxiety is getting the better of us when we start fretting over a worst case scenario in which Flint. Bryan, Baker and Reid all leave: I would have thought this pretty unlikely, though I would concede that the departure of the first two would begin to feel inevitable if we’re still in the Championship next year - which I believe we will be. There has been interest in those two for quite some time and if anything they are both performing at an even better level now than they were back when that started. We will miss them a lot, as strong characters and committed team men as much as individual players, but though I’ll be really sad to see either one go, I don’t think their loss would fatally undermine the long term project.

Also, the stick or twist options as they are tending to be perceived are not necessarily mutually exclusive choices. I think it may be a bit of both: neither sticking rigidly to the emphasis on young potential nor throwing crazy sums at the problem but something in between the two. LJ is a flexible thinker. I remain hopeful in the face of this undeniably sticky patch. They will essentially hold to the core beliefs, but I would not be surprised by a big money signing of a proven player - and if that does happen, I think it will be a striker.....

 

As for your first paragraph, I give you Engvall, Magnússon, Hegeler, Taylor and maybe even Eliasson, but I get your point.

As for the last paragraph any major outlay could be underwritten by the expectation of big fees for at least Flint and Bryan in the summer.

[CliftonCliff]

10 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

As for your first paragraph, I give you Engvall, Magnússon, Hegeler, Taylor and maybe even Eliasson, but I get your point.

Those names come up a lot in this kind of discussion and I understand why that is. However, there was a time when similar questions were being raised about O’Dowda and even Brownhill. The whole point of the strategy we’re pursuing is that we don’t know how these guys will develop over the next twelve months, though one thing you can be sure of is that they won’t get it right every time. That’s just the nature of the beast and it has to be expected. 

Inevitably, opinions vary. Not everyone would dismiss Magnússon as a mistake (though as it happens I share your  reservations). The Swedish boys have played very few games, as yet. The other two never did fit the prevailing model, in that both are older players with varying levels of experience. Taylor, one feels, was something of a punt (mind how you read that) in that he was available and cheap (no sniggering, please), but I wouldn’t say he’s been an unmitigated disaster by any means.

The hardest one to understand is Hegeler. It’s never really been made clear what thinking lay behind that. I still admire him as a very accomplished footballer, but as has been pointed out, he does not seem to fit with our preferred way of playing.

In all these cases  though, and in the context of an outstandingly and unexpectedly successful season so far, I am willing to give LJ the benefit of the doubt until such time as the evidence of failure becomes unequivocal, which I don’t believe it has - yet.

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

Stick with the plan IMO. If we don`t go up, so be it and anyone who suffered the fallout post Hull can surely never want to go through those wilderness years again.

Having said that, I doubt it would be as bad as it was back then as the club learned a lot of lessons from that fiasco and will not repeat the mistakes that were made.

I suppose it`s really a case of what will be will be - I`m ambivalent about promotion if I`m being totally honest. I had a long chat with a friend in the week who is a long standing Saints STH and she is hating what they`re doing at the moment, setting up to not lose as they are so desperate to not be relegated and she says it`s sucking the life out of everyone down there. Would I want that at City? It really was depressing to see someone who is so totally into her club as I am into mine feeling like that and basically having lost the spark that we all should have.

Would I want to be like that or would I rather go toe to toe in the championship with the likes of Wednesday or Boro every week?

I really don`t know at the moment.

 

[CliftonCliff]

16 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Stick with the plan IMO. If we don`t go up, so be it and anyone who suffered the fallout post Hull can surely never want to go through those wilderness years again.

Having said that, I doubt it would be as bad as it was back then as the club learned a lot of lessons from that fiasco and will not repeat the mistakes that were made.

I suppose it`s really a case of what will be will be - I`m ambivalent about promotion if I`m being totally honest. I had a long chat with a friend in the week who is a long standing Saints STH and she is hating what they`re doing at the moment, setting up to not lose as they are so desperate to not be relegated and she says it`s sucking the life out of everyone down there. Would I want that at City? It really was depressing to see someone who is so totally into her club as I am into mine feeling like that and basically having lost the spark that we all should have.

Would I want to be like that or would I rather go toe to toe in the championship with the likes of Wednesday or Boro every week?

I really don`t know at the moment.

 

You’re not alone in those sentiments. One comforting thing though  is the way LJ set about Man C. Would he yield to the pressure to park the bus in the PL? He’s not afraid to do things his own way. Promotion might not necessarily mean a season of dour defending.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

23 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Stick with the plan IMO. If we don`t go up, so be it and anyone who suffered the fallout post Hull can surely never want to go through those wilderness years again.

Having said that, I doubt it would be as bad as it was back then as the club learned a lot of lessons from that fiasco and will not repeat the mistakes that were made.

I suppose it`s really a case of what will be will be - I`m ambivalent about promotion if I`m being totally honest. I had a long chat with a friend in the week who is a long standing Saints STH and she is hating what they`re doing at the moment, setting up to not lose as they are so desperate to not be relegated and she says it`s sucking the life out of everyone down there. Would I want that at City? It really was depressing to see someone who is so totally into her club as I am into mine feeling like that and basically having lost the spark that we all should have.

Would I want to be like that or would I rather go toe to toe in the championship with the likes of Wednesday or Boro every week?

I really don`t know at the moment.

 

Southampton like a few other prem clubs in foreign ownership are the masters of their own downfall, they sacked a manager who took them to 8th place in that league but that incredibly wasn't good enough and now they are paying for that nonsense and of course they have history of that under the current ownership, do I have any sympathy for Southampton do I ****.

And Bournemouth don't play like that so it can be done.

As for BCFC my position is this, I would push the boat out for a striker and my reasoning is thus, firstly as I have already said it will create a perception amongst our better players that we are trying to match their undoubted ambitions + also as I have already mentioned the cost could be under written by the prospective sales of Flint and Bryan in the summer, if needed.

I don't see the risk, perhaps we wouldn't even need a permanent signing may be a biggish loan fee for Grabban or Vokes or somebody similar?.

[Davefevs]

If Taylor was a £300k punt, then £150k for Hegeler still has value for money in it, and he started the season well at CB.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

If Taylor was a £300k punt, then £150k for Hegeler still has value for money in it, and he started the season well at CB.

Both have not worked out, move them on they offer little or nothing, I can't agree about Hegeler at CB, I thought he looked out of place, opinions eh.

[BS4 on Tour...]

3 hours ago, steveybadger said:

Dare I say a bigger issue would be if LJ goes? 

Nah - we’ve had 35 other managers in our history, we’d find another one...

[Davefevs]

13 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

Both have not worked out, move them on they offer little or nothing, I can't agree about Hegeler at CB, I thought he looked out of place, opinions eh.

Absolutely about opinions.

Hegeler’s problem is that he looks so relaxed, but actually at CB he positions himself well, and on the ball his touch to move the ball for the next pass is quality.  Not better than Baker though, who rarely seems to need another gear.  His positioning is very, very good.  Doesn’t need to go on his arse very often.  He’s (Hegeler) not a ball-winner in the air, but he wins more than people give him credit.  Sometimes as a CB, you let the striker win it because he flicks on to nobody, which is what Millwall did, but Hegs criticised for not jumping.  Why try to win a header that puts the ball back into a congested area, exactly what Millwall wanted.  Little things people miss, because they are used to Flint-style.