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Top 6 prediction


barneyrubble

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Looking at our remaining fixtures we will never have a better chance of making the play-offs. How many points do we think will be needed to get one of those spots? Or even a top 2 finish? 

Here are our fixtures:

January:
(H) QPR 27/1
 
February:
(A) Bolton 2/2 
(H) Sunderland 10/2 
(A) Leeds 18/2 
(H) Fulham 21/2 
(A) Cardiff 25/2 
 
March:
(H) Sheffield Wednesday 3/3 
(A) Preston 6/3 
(A) Burton 10/3 
(H) Ipswich 17/3 
(A) Barnsley 30/3 
 
April:
(H) Brentford 2/4 
(A) Millwall 7/4 
(H) Birmingham 10/4 
(A) Middlesbrough 14/4 
(H) Hull 21/4 
(A) Forest 28/4 
 
May:
(H) Sheffield United 6/5 
 
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28 minutes ago, Ryan_BCFC said:

Looking at our remaining fixtures we will never have a better chance of making the play-offs. How many points do we think will be needed to get one of those spots? Or even a top 2 finish? 

Here are our fixtures:

January:
(H) QPR 27/1
 
February:
(A) Bolton 2/2 
(H) Sunderland 10/2 
(A) Leeds 18/2 
(H) Fulham 21/2 
(A) Cardiff 25/2 
 
March:
(H) Sheffield Wednesday 3/3 
(A) Preston 6/3 
(A) Burton 10/3 
(H) Ipswich 17/3 
(A) Barnsley 30/3 
 
April:
(H) Brentford 2/4 
(A) Millwall 7/4 
(H) Birmingham 10/4 
(A) Middlesbrough 14/4 
(H) Hull 21/4 
(A) Forest 28/4 
 
May:
(H) Sheffield United 6/5 
 

 “Last year , Fulham had 80 points in 6th position . We need another 32 minimum . 9 wins and 5 draws and 4 losses should do it so tough but doable imo . Brighton in second had 93 But I don’t think any of current contenders will reach that this year . 

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11 wins from 18 (81pts.) should get us the playoffs but I reckon we`ll need another three more for 2nd (90pts). I can`t see us winning 14 from 18 somehow and even 11 from 18 is a tough ask.

I still think we`ll finish just outside the playoffs, about 8th. We then have a huge summer ahead to make sure we challenge again.

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The run of three games in the second half of February against Leeds, Fulham and Cardiff could be pivotal. Squad could be at something near to full strength by then and if we can take points off teams like that who are likely to be close to us in the table it should consolidate our top six position.

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75 would give us a good shot at the playoffs.

For top 2 you generally need 90.

Lets get through February and then, with a full squad :pray:, hit March and April like a sledgehammer. Crunch those games, spank a couple of teams 4-0, have a wonderful spring and then smash into the playoffs for a magnificent couple of weeks in the sun.

 

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42 minutes ago, Ryan_BCFC said:

Looking at our remaining fixtures we will never have a better chance of making the play-offs. How many points do we think will be needed to get one of those spots? Or even a top 2 finish? 

Here are our fixtures:

January:
(H) QPR 27/1
 
February:
(A) Bolton 2/2 
(H) Sunderland 10/2 
(A) Leeds 18/2 
(H) Fulham 21/2 
(A) Cardiff 25/2 
 
March:
(H) Sheffield Wednesday 3/3 
(A) Preston 6/3 
(A) Burton 10/3 
(H) Ipswich 17/3 
(A) Barnsley 30/3 
 
April:
(H) Brentford 2/4 
(A) Millwall 7/4 
(H) Birmingham 10/4 
(A) Middlesbrough 14/4 
(H) Hull 21/4 
(A) Forest 28/4 
 
May:
(H) Sheffield United 6/5 
 

Could not have picked a better set of fixtures but you still have to do the business.

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7 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

75 would give us a good shot at the playoffs.

For top 2 you generally need 90.

Lets get through February and then, with a full squad :pray:, hit March and April like a sledgehammer. Crunch those games, spank a couple of teams 4-0, have a wonderful spring and then smash into the playoffs for a magnificent couple of weeks in the sun.

 

I don`t think 75 will be enough this year, I`ve got a feeling it`s going to be a high points one at the top. 80 is going to be more likely needed IMO.

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For me all depends on whether we can strengthen with more first team ready players, even if they are Man City U-23s. 

Current squad, even with additions of Kent (whose apparently woefully unfit) and Walsh, and Fammy coming back in just has not got the strength in depth required. Would be different if we had Djuric, COD & Pisano fit, but too many games are going to go by before that.

1 pt from last 12, has the chasing pack clamouring to overtake us.

As it stands I'd predict Wolves, Derby, Villa, Boro as 4 out the 6 for sure, that leaves 2 play-off places up for grabs from 6 as I see it: Us, Cardiff, Sheff Utd, Fulham, Brentford, Leeds. If we don't strengthen further in January, I fear we may just miss out.

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1 hour ago, Ryan_BCFC said:

Looking at our remaining fixtures we will never have a better chance of making the play-offs. How many points do we think will be needed to get one of those spots? Or even a top 2 finish? 

Here are our fixtures:

January:
(H) QPR 27/1 - W
 
February:
(A) Bolton 2/2 - W
(H) Sunderland 10/2 - W
(A) Leeds 18/2 - L
(H) Fulham 21/2 - D
(A) Cardiff 25/2 - D
 
March:
(H) Sheffield Wednesday 3/3 - W
(A) Preston 6/3 - L
(A) Burton 10/3 - D
(H) Ipswich 17/3 - W
(A) Barnsley 30/3 - W
 
April:
(H) Brentford 2/4 - D
(A) Millwall 7/4 - D
(H) Birmingham 10/4 - W
(A) Middlesbrough 14/4 - L
(H) Hull 21/4 - W
(A) Forest 28/4 - W
 
May:
(H) Sheffield United 6/5 - W
 
1

Thought I'd have a go at predicting some results. If the above happened then that would be 35 extra points, putting us on 83. 

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1 hour ago, luke_bristol said:

Lets hope many of the games at the tail end of the season will be against teams with nothing to play for

 

I think we will struggle to replicate our earlier season from and will ultimately be battling to stay in the play offs, but what a turn around from last season! COYR

You say that - but I fear the opposite will be the case.

Brentford/Boro/Forest could all be on charges to, or in the playoffs. Sheff Utd at the end could be huge.

Birmingham and Hull will be in a relegation scrap. Millwall could be dragged in by then.

Tough

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I think February looks tough. Bolton have got 7 points from their last 12 at the Reebok, that looks winnable but looks a bad time to play them. Sunderland are slowly picking up under Coleman but that’s a must-win. I’m not too worried about Leeds after seeing them at Newport but our record at Elland Road is poor. Fulham are flying, how long will it last? Cardiff, Warnock and their antics will be difficult. 

Anything above 9 points from 15 in February and we will be there or thereabouts. 

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2 hours ago, Barney red said:

Think if we can get and keep our players back we are capable of this.Once the cup is over one way or another we will really be able to focus and maintain the energy levels which are crucial to our style of play.

Wolves

Villa

Boro

COYR

Derby

Leeds

 

 

 

Think we will finish 6th.

Wolves

Derby

Villa

Cardiff

Sheffield Utd

Bristol City 

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2 hours ago, Ryan_BCFC said:

Looking at our remaining fixtures we will never have a better chance of making the play-offs. How many points do we think will be needed to get one of those spots? Or even a top 2 finish? 

Here are our fixtures:

January:
(H) QPR 27/1 Has to be a Home win 
 
February:
(A) Bolton 2/2 draw 
(H) Sunderland 10/2 Home win
(A) Leeds 18/2 Away win
(H) Fulham 21/2 defeat 
(A) Cardiff 25/2 draw 
 
March:
(H) Sheffield Wednesday 3/3 Home win 
(A) Preston 6/3 draw 
(A) Burton 10/3 away win 
(H) Ipswich 17/3 Home win 
(A) Barnsley 30/3 away win 
 
April:
(H) Brentford 2/4 draw 
(A) Millwall 7/4 defeat 
(H) Birmingham 10/4 Home win 
(A) Middlesbrough 14/4 defeat 
(H) Hull 21/4 Home win 
(A) Forest 28/4 draw 
 
May:
(H) Sheffield United 6/5 draw 
 

Given my predictions on our remaining fixtures. Going to be tight to finish in top six, we have to win Saturday 

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Wolves                                                  Villa                                                      Derby                                                    Cardiff                                                  Fulham                                                  Middlesbrough                                  

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3 hours ago, Red Right Hand said:

I don`t think 75 will be enough this year, I`ve got a feeling it`s going to be a high points one at the top. 80 is going to be more likely needed IMO.

If you extrapolate the current table then 76 points would do it. Allow for some uppage and I would say 80 would be almost dead cert. maybe 78/79

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2 hours ago, Jcolebristol said:

Thought I'd have a go at predicting some results. If the above happened then that would be 35 extra points, putting us on 83. 

You gave that a pretty sensible attempt...always hard to pick us to lose, but at least you have.  I believe you pick up points you don’t expect to and drop ones where you expect to get them.  I don’t care how we get them, but there will be games that become the ‘proverbial’ 6-pointer.

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