spudski Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 This guy is pretty good with his predictions. Worth a look. https://experimental361.com/2018/01/21/return-of-the-e-ratings-championship-21-jan-2018/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBFC II Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 How are we an outsider for the top 6 when we are 5th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cider_boy Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, JBFC II said: How are we an outsider for the top 6 when we are 5th? cos we were 2nd, current form has seen us drop to 5th already. Predictions look reasonable to me, about 50:50 for a top 6 finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterbournered Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Personally think we'll finish just short of top 6. Still think the depth of squad isn't quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Exile Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Really interesting. Can't disagree...would have been more comfortable reading before Christmas! Personally, I feel there is a long way to go. We've been through a run of very tricky league games with an injury list which has exposed the fragility of our squad relative to many of our opponents...and our fixture list has been clogged up by a great cup run. We need a decent return from the next 3 league matches to get things back on track...QPR, Bolton and Sunderland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Coach Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Thats what I got.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHider Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Looking back at our last run of games is hilarious, top quality teams with no rest for 6 weeks using a depleted squad playing high tempo classy football.. And we are through the worst, and we have players returning. We can still get 2nd, but that will means everyone else falling apart, so i'd take 6th a pray off every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHider Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 34 minutes ago, winterbournered said: Personally think we'll finish just short of top 6. Still think the depth of squad isn't quite there. 7th on goal difference would be a gutter I would struggle to get over, which is why that can't happen. Play off gives me nightmares, I still have flashbacks from Hull, ***ing PTSD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lorenzos Only Goal Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I personally expect Cardiff to fall off at some point in March/April they have a threadbare squad and will be super lucky to get through the season with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrahamC Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, CiderHider said: 7th on goal difference would be a gutter I would struggle to get over, which is why that can't happen. Play off gives me nightmares, I still have flashbacks from Hull, ***ing PTSD Struggle to get over? Really? No one seriously thought we had a prayer of reaching the playoffs when the season started. I actually still think we will, especially if we add 2 more first team players (not ones for the future) in the next 10 days. If Diedhiou stays fit and we don't sell the likes of Bryan & Flint, why not? Agree (as usual) with @Redexile the next 3 league games are big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Dicks Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Load of old tosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, JBFC II said: How are we an outsider for the top 6 when we are 5th? I said on another thread that the Villa 0-5 has skewed our rating - the website uses an "expected goals" model, and the defence part of that calculation has been hit by it, otherwise I suspect it would have us much better in position. It would be interesting if you removed each team’s ‘extreme’ result....our 4-1 v Derby and 0-5 v Villa. Similarly, Fulham’s 6-0 yesterday will have boosted theirs. E361 is a statistical model, and at least removes the bias of "they’re a big club, they’ll come good" like Boro. That’s not to say they won’t, but the data this season so far, says not. 1 hour ago, Lorenzos Only Goal said: I personally expect Cardiff to fall off at some point in March/April they have a threadbare squad and will be super lucky to get through the season with that. I thought they looked strong last night v Wednesday, although Wednesday’s finishing let them down when they did create. Where does the "threadbare" squad comment from. Just brought in Wildschut and Grujic, and Zahore new back fit. No Tomlin, means they don’t have a fancy Dan ruining their team-ethic. Have they had their bad run too? Plus the "Warnock-effect". I obviously want them to fall away, but I’ve grudgingly thought they’ve played good football and are deserving of their position. Ignore the possession and pass complete stats and watch how they move the ball quickly forward. They aren’t as pleading on the eye as our passing / triangles through the lines, but they stretch the pitch and have an athletic side. They are a dangerous team to write off. I do howeve think we will be ok. We do grind out our results a bit, but we are tough to beat. I think we see unbeaten runs as confidence boosters, thinking we can get points from nowhere, e.g. Hull away. That will be key to us. We also aren’t reliant on goals from one source. It is gonna be very exciting, but nervy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted January 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Alan Dicks said: Load of old tosh Really? I suggest you look at last seasons predictions and how close he got them. https://experimental361.com/2017/05/08/model-trends-championship-201617/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man in the middle Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Mystic Meg says “Bristol City to be champions”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Yes. Yes. Yes. Been waiting all season for this little nugget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midred Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 45 minutes ago, man in the middle said: Mystic Meg says “Bristol City to be champions”. What does Sceptic Peg say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hampshire Red Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 What a great contribution from Alan Dicks! My prediction is, as it was in October, which is a 7th position finish. I didn't make a prediction in Aug so I took advantage in October of seeing every game, the Bobby experiment, the new players and the fantastic team spirit shown since the start. I still expect us to challenge and we all know Lee's teams go on runs (good and poor) be it Barnsley, last season or this. I just hope we get off the 'No-Win' run v QPR. As someone else mentioned this year's learnings will include a deeper quality squad but to finish 7th have an amazing cup run, filled the ground several times, had fantastic PR across the piece and played delightful football will be a 9/10 season for me. Next season, I think we can go 'automatics'. CoYRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS4 on Tour... Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I’d be delighted with a tenth place finish - that represents serious progress in a season when we’ve had very bad injuries to key players and a very distracting, yet joyful, cup run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
man in the middle Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Midred said: What does Sceptic Peg say? She says “a very small man will arrive and take the mighty reds to the promised land”. Spooky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 5 hours ago, Alan Dicks said: Load of old tosh Can you expand on that? I only ask because football is heading down this path with expected goals, analytical models and anticipating trajectories, player performances and conversion and concession rates. The thing is looking back, using this model and these predictions, we could see our run last season had a fair few performances that outstripped results. FWIW, I think we will make the playoffs but it will be a dogfight with about 6 teams for 2 places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedM Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 12 hours ago, spudski said: Really? I suggest you look at last seasons predictions and how close he got them. https://experimental361.com/2017/05/08/model-trends-championship-201617/ Very interesting. I had forgotten how Wolves had flirted with relegation last March, look at them now!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lorenzos Only Goal Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 15 hours ago, Davefevs said: I said on another thread that the Villa 0-5 has skewed our rating - the website uses an "expected goals" model, and the defence part of that calculation has been hit by it, otherwise I suspect it would have us much better in position. It would be interesting if you removed each team’s ‘extreme’ result....our 4-1 v Derby and 0-5 v Villa. Similarly, Fulham’s 6-0 yesterday will have boosted theirs. E361 is a statistical model, and at least removes the bias of "they’re a big club, they’ll come good" like Boro. That’s not to say they won’t, but the data this season so far, says not. I thought they looked strong last night v Wednesday, although Wednesday’s finishing let them down when they did create. Where does the "threadbare" squad comment from. Just brought in Wildschut and Grujic, and Zahore new back fit. No Tomlin, means they don’t have a fancy Dan ruining their team-ethic. Have they had their bad run too? Plus the "Warnock-effect". I obviously want them to fall away, but I’ve grudgingly thought they’ve played good football and are deserving of their position. Ignore the possession and pass complete stats and watch how they move the ball quickly forward. They aren’t as pleading on the eye as our passing / triangles through the lines, but they stretch the pitch and have an athletic side. They are a dangerous team to write off. I do howeve think we will be ok. We do grind out our results a bit, but we are tough to beat. I think we see unbeaten runs as confidence boosters, thinking we can get points from nowhere, e.g. Hull away. That will be key to us. We also aren’t reliant on goals from one source. It is gonna be very exciting, but nervy too. Agree maybe it's just wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted January 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 52 minutes ago, RedM said: Very interesting. I had forgotten how Wolves had flirted with relegation last March, look at them now!!! His work is generally very accurate, however you do get the odd fluctuation, where the stats don't link up with the results being achieved. For example...Ipswich this season are still over achieving going by their stats. Earlier in the season Brentford had awesome stats, the best in the league but were really struggling. I suggested at the time that Brentford would still make the play offs. I got told by a few on here that there was no chance. Now look at them...3 points off play offs and 4th best form over last 10 games. The stats he uses generally work and are a good indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC J Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 If SWFC finish above us I'll get a tattoo of Jos Luhukay printed onto my arse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Fred Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 18 hours ago, Red Exile said: Really interesting. Can't disagree...would have been more comfortable reading before Christmas! Personally, I feel there is a long way to go. We've been through a run of very tricky league games with an injury list which has exposed the fragility of our squad relative to many of our opponents...and our fixture list has been clogged up by a great cup run. We need a decent return from the next 3 league matches to get things back on track...QPR, Bolton and Sunderland... We absolutely need to start winning again & soon if we want to maintain top six...looking over our shoulder now at Fulham & Middlesborough whom are looking very strong-from the next three league games a rock bottem minimum of six points required-my gut feel is that if we drop out of the play off positions we won't get back in there again as its really warming up at the top....Pressure on at home to beat QPR on Saturday post Man City with a few tired legs ....this is where we now establish our credentials or slip quietly away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshtonGreat Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 To be honest, I think we have better credentials than Cardiff, who are supposedly contesting the top two spots while we are outsiders for the play-offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Well I had a lovely weekend reading this stuff. His performance over time stats for us show that during the autumn we were getting results that were better than our actual football suggested. That is, we were scoring/conceding more goals than our chances created/allowed suggested we should be. Since Christmas the reverse has been true. The graph below shows that during that run of form the stats suggested we would be, on average, scoring 0.25 goals more than our opponent in each game. However we actually were scoring 0.5(ish) and sometimes as high as 0.75 more goals. Compare that to recent games when our predicted average is still positive - suggesting a strong performance - but our actual results have dipped to the negative. What that suggests is that we will return to some sort of form. However it would be surprising if it was a return to the sort of form we saw in October/November/early December. That is why he is predicting 6th for us. Who knows, if we get some luck then we might edge it and get back to 1.9ppg...but it is more probable that we will recover to 1.65-1.75ppg, which would mean we finish on 78 - 80 points. Seeing as we need to average 2.33ppg in order to get 90 points (the common benchmark for autos) we really should be preparing ourselves for a tilt at the play-offs. Contrast this with Sunderland. Yes they are awful. Not only have they actually been averaging negative goals over all games - at times as bad as -1, they're underlying ratio of chances created v chances allowed expects them to lose. it expects them to score 0.25 goals fewer than their opponents. Hence they are as bad as their results suggest - and hence his model gives them very little chance of recovering. He's done the above for every team. Can be seen at https://experimental361.com/2018/01/21/championship-trends-21-jan-2018/ In terms of our next three games - all three of QPR, Bolton and Sunderland are as bad as their table position says. Even Bolton, who have enjoyed a run of form, are overperforming and should drop back soon - hopefully against us. A warning though - Fulham have picked up both results and underlying performances; they are genuinely getting better rather than getting lucky - they will be our toughest February game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 58 minutes ago, BCFC J said: If SWFC finish above us I'll get a tattoo of Jos Luhukay printed onto my arse. in burtons window!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Fred Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 1 hour ago, BCFC J said: If SWFC finish above us I'll get a tattoo of Jos Luhukay printed onto my arse. With Katrien Miere at the helm there I think that your pretty safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
underhanded Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 I See the top 6 being: Wolves Derby Aston Villa Fulham Boro City Feel we'll just about hang on for a spot. Cardiff dropping over the next few weeks into mid-table obscurity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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