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Predicted Table


spudski

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Really interesting. Can't disagree...would have been more comfortable reading before Christmas! Personally, I feel there is a long way to go. We've been through a run of very tricky league games with an injury list which has exposed the fragility of our squad relative to many of our opponents...and our fixture list has been clogged up by a great cup run. 

We need a decent return from the next 3 league matches to get things back on track...QPR, Bolton and Sunderland...

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Looking back at our last run of games is hilarious, top quality teams with no rest for 6 weeks using a depleted squad playing high tempo classy football.. 

 

And we are through the worst, and we have players returning. We can still get 2nd, but that will means everyone else falling apart, so i'd take 6th a pray off every time. 

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34 minutes ago, winterbournered said:

Personally think we'll finish just short of top 6. 

Still think the depth of squad isn't quite there. 

7th on goal difference would be a gutter I would struggle to get over, which is why that can't happen. Play off gives me nightmares, I still have flashbacks from Hull, ***ing PTSD

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13 minutes ago, CiderHider said:

7th on goal difference would be a gutter I would struggle to get over, which is why that can't happen. Play off gives me nightmares, I still have flashbacks from Hull, ***ing PTSD

Struggle to get over? Really?

No one seriously thought we had a prayer of reaching the playoffs when the season started.

I actually still think we will, especially if we add 2 more first team players (not ones for the future) in the next 10 days.

If Diedhiou stays fit and we don't sell the likes of Bryan & Flint, why not?

Agree (as usual) with @Redexile the next 3 league games are big.

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1 hour ago, JBFC II said:

How are we an outsider for the top 6 when we are 5th?

I said on another thread that the Villa 0-5 has skewed our rating - the website uses an "expected goals" model, and the defence part of that calculation has been hit by it, otherwise I suspect it would have us much better in position.  It would be interesting if you removed each team’s ‘extreme’ result....our 4-1 v Derby and 0-5 v Villa.  Similarly, Fulham’s 6-0 yesterday will have boosted theirs.

E361 is a statistical model, and at least removes the bias of "they’re a big club, they’ll come good" like Boro.  That’s not to say they won’t, but the data this season so far, says not.

1 hour ago, Lorenzos Only Goal said:

I personally expect Cardiff to fall off at some point in March/April they have a threadbare squad and will be super lucky to get through the season with that.

I thought they looked strong last night v Wednesday, although Wednesday’s finishing let them down when they did create.  Where does the "threadbare" squad comment from.  Just brought in Wildschut and Grujic, and Zahore new back fit.  No Tomlin, means they don’t have a fancy Dan ruining their team-ethic.  Have they had their bad run too?  Plus the "Warnock-effect".  I obviously want them to fall away, but I’ve grudgingly thought they’ve played good football and are deserving of their position.  Ignore the possession and pass complete stats and watch how they move the ball quickly forward.  They aren’t as pleading on the eye as our passing / triangles through the lines, but they stretch the pitch and have an athletic side.  They are a dangerous team to write off.

I do howeve think we will be ok.  We do grind out our results a bit, but we are tough to beat.  I think we see unbeaten runs as confidence boosters, thinking we can get points from nowhere, e.g. Hull away.  That will be key to us.  We also aren’t reliant on goals from one source.

It is gonna be very exciting, but nervy too.

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What a great contribution from Alan Dicks!

My prediction is, as it was in October, which is a 7th position finish. 

I didn't make a prediction in Aug so I took advantage in October of seeing every game, the Bobby experiment,  the new players and the fantastic team spirit shown since the start.

I still expect us to challenge and we all know Lee's teams go on runs (good and poor) be it Barnsley, last season or this. I just hope we get off the 'No-Win' run v QPR.

As someone else mentioned this year's learnings will include a deeper quality squad but to finish 7th have an amazing cup run, filled the ground several times, had fantastic PR across the piece and played delightful football will be a 9/10 season for me.

Next season, I think we can go 'automatics'.

CoYRs 

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5 hours ago, Alan Dicks said:

Load of old tosh

Can you expand on that?

I only ask because football is heading down this path with expected goals, analytical models and anticipating trajectories, player performances and conversion and concession rates. The thing is looking back, using this model and these predictions, we could see our run last season had a fair few performances that outstripped results.

FWIW, I think we will make the playoffs but it will be a dogfight with about 6 teams for 2 places.

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15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I said on another thread that the Villa 0-5 has skewed our rating - the website uses an "expected goals" model, and the defence part of that calculation has been hit by it, otherwise I suspect it would have us much better in position.  It would be interesting if you removed each team’s ‘extreme’ result....our 4-1 v Derby and 0-5 v Villa.  Similarly, Fulham’s 6-0 yesterday will have boosted theirs.

E361 is a statistical model, and at least removes the bias of "they’re a big club, they’ll come good" like Boro.  That’s not to say they won’t, but the data this season so far, says not.

I thought they looked strong last night v Wednesday, although Wednesday’s finishing let them down when they did create.  Where does the "threadbare" squad comment from.  Just brought in Wildschut and Grujic, and Zahore new back fit.  No Tomlin, means they don’t have a fancy Dan ruining their team-ethic.  Have they had their bad run too?  Plus the "Warnock-effect".  I obviously want them to fall away, but I’ve grudgingly thought they’ve played good football and are deserving of their position.  Ignore the possession and pass complete stats and watch how they move the ball quickly forward.  They aren’t as pleading on the eye as our passing / triangles through the lines, but they stretch the pitch and have an athletic side.  They are a dangerous team to write off.

I do howeve think we will be ok.  We do grind out our results a bit, but we are tough to beat.  I think we see unbeaten runs as confidence boosters, thinking we can get points from nowhere, e.g. Hull away.  That will be key to us.  We also aren’t reliant on goals from one source.

It is gonna be very exciting, but nervy too.

Agree maybe it's just wishful thinking.

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52 minutes ago, RedM said:

Very interesting. I had forgotten how Wolves had flirted with relegation last March, look at them now!!! 

His work is generally very accurate, however you do get the odd fluctuation, where the stats don't link up with the results being achieved.

For example...Ipswich this season are still over achieving going by their stats.

Earlier in the season Brentford had awesome stats, the best in the league but were really struggling.

I suggested at the time that Brentford would still make the play offs. I got told by a few on here that there was no chance.

Now look at them...3 points off play offs and 4th best form over last 10 games.

The stats he uses generally work and are a good indicator.

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18 hours ago, Red Exile said:

Really interesting. Can't disagree...would have been more comfortable reading before Christmas! Personally, I feel there is a long way to go. We've been through a run of very tricky league games with an injury list which has exposed the fragility of our squad relative to many of our opponents...and our fixture list has been clogged up by a great cup run. 

We need a decent return from the next 3 league matches to get things back on track...QPR, Bolton and Sunderland...

We absolutely need to start winning again & soon if we want to maintain top six...looking over our shoulder now at Fulham & Middlesborough whom are looking very strong-from the next three league games a rock bottem minimum of six points required-my gut feel is that if we drop out of the play off positions we won't get back in there again as its really warming up at the top....Pressure on at home to beat QPR on Saturday post Man City with a few tired legs ....this is where we now establish our credentials or slip quietly away.

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Well I had a lovely weekend reading this stuff.

His performance over time stats for us show that during the autumn we were getting results that were better than our actual football suggested.  That is, we were scoring/conceding more goals than our chances created/allowed suggested we should be.  Since Christmas the reverse has been true.  The graph below shows that during that run of form the stats suggested we would be, on average, scoring 0.25 goals more than our opponent in each game.  However we actually were scoring 0.5(ish) and sometimes as high as 0.75 more goals.  Compare that to recent games when our predicted average is still positive - suggesting a strong performance - but our actual results have dipped to the negative. 

What that suggests is that we will return to some sort of form. However it would be surprising if it was a return to the sort of form we saw in October/November/early December.

That is why he is predicting 6th for us.  Who knows, if we get some luck then we might edge it and get back to 1.9ppg...but it is more probable that we will recover to 1.65-1.75ppg, which would mean we finish on 78 - 80 points.  Seeing as we need to average 2.33ppg in order to get 90 points (the common benchmark for autos) we really should be preparing ourselves for a tilt at the play-offs.

2018-01-21-bristol-c.png?w=860&h=430

Contrast this with Sunderland. Yes they are awful. Not only have they actually been averaging negative goals over all games - at times as bad as -1, they're underlying ratio of chances created v chances allowed expects them to lose.  it expects them to score 0.25 goals fewer than their opponents.  Hence they are as bad as their results suggest - and hence his model gives them very little chance of recovering.

2018-01-21-sunderland.png?w=860&h=430

He's done the above for every team.  Can be seen at https://experimental361.com/2018/01/21/championship-trends-21-jan-2018/

In terms of our next three games - all three of QPR, Bolton and Sunderland are as bad as their table position says.  Even Bolton, who have enjoyed a run of form, are overperforming and should drop back soon - hopefully against us.  A warning though - Fulham have picked up both results and underlying performances; they are genuinely getting better rather than getting lucky - they will be our toughest February game.

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