Jump to content
IGNORED

If the current squad was now playing in the Premier league where do think we would be?


hoxton casual

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Super said:

That really is nonsense.

He said 'could' which isn't a totally ridiculous thing to say. 

Here's the prem table from 7-20th. I think we'd have a chance against any of those. We wouldn't be favourites necessarily, but within our capabilities which is what @INCREDwas trying to say.

If we were to go up obviously we'd need to strengthen and it would be expensive. 

image.png.321055faaf76abe33a6f92838acef2ac.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

He said 'could' which isn't a totally ridiculous thing to say. 

Here's the prem table from 7-20th. I think we'd have a chance against any of those. We wouldn't be favourites necessarily, but within our capabilities which is what @INCREDwas trying to say.

If we were to go up obviously we'd need to strengthen and it would be expensive. 

image.png.321055faaf76abe33a6f92838acef2ac.png

If all those were at full strength I would say from 14th down we may have a chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Super said:

If all those were at full strength I would say from 14th down we may have a chance.

I think we'd be quite capable of getting a result against any of those. Granted, teams like Everton, Burnley (who we always struggle against) and Leicester are good but still not impossible.

At home I'd also fancy our chances of pulling off a couple of upsets against teams higher than that. 

Whether we could sustain it over a season with a fairly shallow squad is another question, but we really aren't a bad side.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think we'd be quite capable of getting a result against any of those. Granted, teams like Everton, Burnley (who we always struggle against) and Leicester are good but still not impossible.

At home I'd also fancy our chances of pulling off a couple of upsets against teams higher than that. 

Whether we could sustain it over a season with a fairly shallow squad is another question, but we really aren't a bad side.

Agree with this.

Let's not forget the atmosphere would (I really hope so anyway) be lively every home game and that would give us an added boost each week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I think we'd be quite capable of getting a result against any of those. Granted, teams like Everton, Burnley (who we always struggle against) and Leicester are good but still not impossible.

At home I'd also fancy our chances of pulling off a couple of upsets against teams higher than that. 

Whether we could sustain it over a season with a fairly shallow squad is another question, but we really aren't a bad side.

We are a decent side, but lets not kid ourselves the Premier league is a huge step up. I don't think you can read much into the cup games, Newport drew with Spurs and Wigan beat West Ham at the weekend. We have a few players who I think could make the step up but we would have to bring in many players and spend plenty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Super said:

We are a decent side, but lets not kid ourselves the Premier league is a huge step up. I don't think you can read much into the cup games, Newport drew with Spurs and Wigan beat West Ham at the weekend.

Didn't say it's not a step up, didn't mention the cup games.

All I said was that I believe this squad is capable of getting results against the teams currently placed 7th-20th in the Prem.

image.png.4788941c12be1d097e669342b2db9374.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Didn't say it's not a step up, didn't mention the cup games.

All I said was that I believe this squad is capable of getting results against the teams currently placed 7th-20th in the Prem.

image.png.4788941c12be1d097e669342b2db9374.png

I agree with you but don't see us beating "most" of those.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Super said:

I agree with you but don't see us beating "most" of those.

Well if we did, we'd find ourselves top 6. I think it's just how you've interpreted @INCRED's post below

43 minutes ago, INCRED said:

Depth of our squad would be an issue but with our current first choice 11 we could beat most teams outside the top 6. Over a season we would beat the drop I reckon

I've put in bold the key word. Could. I think we've established you actually agree with that, we could beat those teams. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Super said:

Cup means nothing as you will always get shocks. You are getting a bit carried away. 

4 shocks in a row and then going close over 2 legs against one of the best team in Europe. I know I sound unhinged but even without any new signings I think this team would survive in the Premier. This is important as we are not going to be able to afford Premier League wages for established players so we may have to continue our transfer strategy in a much similare vein until we have a few years of PL money in the bank.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Below are our results over the last 12 months against teams that either were, are, or very well could be, in the Premier League either last season, this season or next season.  It starts with the FA Cup loss to Burnley this time last year and ends with our gallant loss to Man City last week.  In bold are those teams that were in the Premier League at the time we played them (W4 L4).  IMO this is the closest you can get to showing evidence of how we might perform over a decent number of games at that level. Obviously teams change, players transfer and managers shift around. But I think, perhaps, it is worth looking at.

Overall it's a positive picture showing 37 points from 21 games...or 1.76 ppg.  Over a 38 game season that gives 67 points.  Last season Everton in 7th got 61.

This method is no doubt hugely flawed and the fact that most games are against teams that are in the Champ or were relegated probably gives us a slightly higher score than expected.  But I'd say it's encouraging.

Don't think we'd be spending too much time in the bottom 3.

Overall figures as follows:

P21 W11 D4 L6 F39 A29 PT37 GD +10

Burnley - L - 2-0

Newcastle - D - 2-2

Huddersfield - W - 4-0

Brighton - W - 0-1

Watford - W - 2-3

Villa - D - 1-1

Wolves - D - 3-3

Derby - W - 4-1

Stoke - W - 2-0

Palace - W - 4-1

Sunderland - W - 1-2

Cardiff - W - 2-1

Hull - W - 2-3

Middlesbrough - W - 2-1

Man Utd - W - 2-1

Wolves - L - 1-2

Villa - L - 5-0

Watford - L - 3-0

Man City - L - 2-1

Derby - D - 0-0

Man City - L - 2-3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our current squad hasn't had premier league levels of investment, so we'd really struggle - 18th or 19th I believe. Keep the core of this squad and add two of three big signings to compliment them (as well as another 2-3 squad players) and you like to think we could compete and finish higher.

We'd see about 30-35m of squad investment with promotion, which isn't really possible at the moment

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Below are our results over the last 12 months against teams that either were, are, or very well could be, in the Premier League either last season, this season or next season.  It starts with the FA Cup loss to Burnley this time last year and ends with our gallant loss to Man City last week.  In bold are those teams that were in the Premier League at the time we played them (W4 L4).  IMO this is the closest you can get to showing evidence of how we might perform over a decent number of games at that level. Obviously teams change, players transfer and managers shift around. But I think, perhaps, it is worth looking at.

Overall it's a positive picture showing 37 points from 21 games...or 1.76 ppg.  Over a 38 game season that gives 67 points.  Last season Everton in 7th got 61.

This method is no doubt hugely flawed and the fact that most games are against teams that are in the Champ or were relegated probably gives us a slightly higher score than expected.  But I'd say it's encouraging.

Don't think we'd be spending too much time in the bottom 3.

Overall figures as follows:

P21 W11 D4 L6 F39 A29 PT37 GD +10

Burnley - L - 2-0

Newcastle - D - 2-2

Huddersfield - W - 4-0

Brighton - W - 0-1

Watford - W - 2-3

Villa - D - 1-1

Wolves - D - 3-3

Derby - W - 4-1

Stoke - W - 2-0

Palace - W - 4-1

Sunderland - W - 1-2

Cardiff - W - 2-1

Hull - W - 2-3

Middlesbrough - W - 2-1

Man Utd - W - 2-1

Wolves - L - 1-2

Villa - L - 5-0

Watford - L - 3-0

Man City - L - 2-1

Derby - D - 0-0

Man City - L - 2-3

Brilliant post. Thanks for taking the time to run the numbers. You should get a job in our much vaunted analyst team! Or maybe you already work there....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, hoxton casual said:

Brilliant post. Thanks for taking the time to run the numbers. You should get a job in our much vaunted analyst team! Or maybe you already work there....

Cheers.  I was very surprised at just how good the record is.  When you also see that 5 of the 6 losses came in our injury hit January of 2018 - and that three of those were losses to injury time goals against the two best teams in the Premier League and Championship - then it really is positive.

I think that if you look at the team now and compare it to the one that came up under Cotterill in 2015 then there is chasm between them.  Not just the individuals, but the style of play, the clear purpose and the confidence.

I for one am excited.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Super said:

We are a decent side, but lets not kid ourselves the Premier league is a huge step up. I don't think you can read much into the cup games, Newport drew with Spurs and Wigan beat West Ham at the weekend. We have a few players who I think could make the step up but we would have to bring in many players and spend plenty.

The Premier League is such a huge step up that all 3 relegated sides from last season are below us and we have beaten 4 current sides (with us playing either a rotated squad or having at least 2 key players injured) while taking the current runaway leaders all the way to injury time twice.

Yes, upsets happen, but you don't get 4 upsets a season. We would be able to hold our own in the Premier League.

The bottom half has little difference between them, we'd slot into the upper end of the bottom half pretty comfortably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Cheers.  I was very surprised at just how good the record is.  When you also see that 5 of the 6 losses came in our injury hit January of 2018 - and that three of those were losses to injury time goals against the two best teams in the Premier League and Championship - then it really is positive.

I think that if you look at the team now and compare it to the one that came up under Cotterill in 2015 then there is chasm between them.  Not just the individuals, but the style of play, the clear purpose and the confidence.

I for one am excited.

I think we are all really excited and I was saying this morning I have not had this level of confidence going into matches ever in 45 years. What is interesting is your stats show that this fan-based emotion is backed in some way by facts. I was also VERY suprised at your figures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Below are our results over the last 12 months against teams that either were, are, or very well could be, in the Premier League either last season, this season or next season.  It starts with the FA Cup loss to Burnley this time last year and ends with our gallant loss to Man City last week.  In bold are those teams that were in the Premier League at the time we played them (W4 L4).  IMO this is the closest you can get to showing evidence of how we might perform over a decent number of games at that level. Obviously teams change, players transfer and managers shift around. But I think, perhaps, it is worth looking at.

Overall it's a positive picture showing 37 points from 21 games...or 1.76 ppg.  Over a 38 game season that gives 67 points.  Last season Everton in 7th got 61.

This method is no doubt hugely flawed and the fact that most games are against teams that are in the Champ or were relegated probably gives us a slightly higher score than expected.  But I'd say it's encouraging.

Don't think we'd be spending too much time in the bottom 3.

Overall figures as follows:

P21 W11 D4 L6 F39 A29 PT37 GD +10

Burnley - L - 2-0

Newcastle - D - 2-2

Huddersfield - W - 4-0

Brighton - W - 0-1

Watford - W - 2-3

Villa - D - 1-1

Wolves - D - 3-3

Derby - W - 4-1

Stoke - W - 2-0

Palace - W - 4-1

Sunderland - W - 1-2

Cardiff - W - 2-1

Hull - W - 2-3

Middlesbrough - W - 2-1

Man Utd - W - 2-1

Wolves - L - 1-2

Villa - L - 5-0

Watford - L - 3-0

Man City - L - 2-1

Derby - D - 0-0

Man City - L - 2-3

Cracking post.

As you say, it is a flawed model, but about as good as can be reasonably produced.

Also, with a sample of games that large it should cancel out one off results.

 

We'd be on the same points as Arsenal over 24 games! :laughcont:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

The Premier League is such a huge step up that all 3 relegated sides from last season are below us and we have beaten 4 current sides (with us playing either a rotated squad or having at least 2 key players injured) while taking the current runaway leaders all the way to injury time twice.

Yes, upsets happen, but you don't get 4 upsets a season. We would be able to hold our own in the Premier League.

The bottom half has little difference between them, we'd slot into the upper end of the bottom half pretty comfortably.

All about opinions but totally disagree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Cracking post.

As you say, it is a flawed model, but about as good as can be reasonably produced.

Also, with a sample of games that large it should cancel out one off results.

 

We'd be on the same points as Arsenal over 24 games! :laughcont:

Correct on cancelling out.  We got a somewhat fortunate win against Hull, the draw at Wolves was a real smash and grab and we probably should have lost 1-0 against Derby recently (as it was certainly a penalty in the 87th minute). Then again we probably should have drawn with Man City last week, and we basically wrote off the FA Cup against Watford.

I think what's important to recognise is that those 21 games would essentially represent the half of the Premier League season against the lower clubs - with the 3 Manchester games as anomalies.

A hypothetical 21 game period that included 12 games against the current top six may well show 12 losses, or at the very least not a single win.  That might mean we got only a handful of points.

However, if we did go up, and took 37 points from the teams in the bottom 10, then we would be very well placed indeed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Correct on cancelling out.  We got a somewhat fortunate win against Hull, the draw at Wolves was a real smash and grab and we probably should have lost 1-0 against Derby recently (as it was certainly a penalty in the 87th minute). Then again we probably should have drawn with Man City last week, and we basically wrote off the FA Cup against Watford.

I think what's important to recognise is that those 21 games would essentially represent the half of the Premier League season against the lower clubs - with the 3 Manchester games as anomalies.

A hypothetical 21 game period that included 12 games against the current top six may well show 12 losses, or at the very least not a single win.  That might mean we got only a handful of points.

However, if we did go up, and took 37 points from the teams in the bottom 10, then we would be very well placed indeed. 

Although the draw against Wolves could be seen as smash and grab, we were ahead with just a couple of minutes to go.

We also threw away a great chance for a win in the home match.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I posted elsewhere that I think that the top 6 Championship clubs are actually better than the bottom 6 Premiership sides. The fact that only 3 can go down saves some pretty poor clubs from relegation and restricts some good sides from being promoted. 

Look at last season’s relegated teams for example; only Boro doing ok, the rest scrapping for their lives at the bottom of the league.

now look at the current Prem table; none of last season’s promoted sides currently occupying the drop places. 

If we were to get promoted and not change our squad I think we would end up bottom half, but safe. The big thing for me would be to ENLARGE the squad. In the Prem we could not play kids when we are thin on the ground due to injuries or bans. We will need to have decent cover in all positions, but I don’t necessarily think that we would need to REPLACE any of  the current first team to survive. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

Below are our results over the last 12 months against teams that either were, are, or very well could be, in the Premier League either last season, this season or next season.  It starts with the FA Cup loss to Burnley this time last year and ends with our gallant loss to Man City last week.  In bold are those teams that were in the Premier League at the time we played them (W4 L4).  IMO this is the closest you can get to showing evidence of how we might perform over a decent number of games at that level. Obviously teams change, players transfer and managers shift around. But I think, perhaps, it is worth looking at.

Overall it's a positive picture showing 37 points from 21 games...or 1.76 ppg.  Over a 38 game season that gives 67 points.  Last season Everton in 7th got 61.

This method is no doubt hugely flawed and the fact that most games are against teams that are in the Champ or were relegated probably gives us a slightly higher score than expected.  But I'd say it's encouraging.

Don't think we'd be spending too much time in the bottom 3.

Overall figures as follows:

P21 W11 D4 L6 F39 A29 PT37 GD +10

Burnley - L - 2-0

Newcastle - D - 2-2

Huddersfield - W - 4-0

Brighton - W - 0-1

Watford - W - 2-3

Villa - D - 1-1

Wolves - D - 3-3

Derby - W - 4-1

Stoke - W - 2-0

Palace - W - 4-1

Sunderland - W - 1-2

Cardiff - W - 2-1

Hull - W - 2-3

Middlesbrough - W - 2-1

Man Utd - W - 2-1

Wolves - L - 1-2

Villa - L - 5-0

Watford - L - 3-0

Man City - L - 2-1

Derby - D - 0-0

Man City - L - 2-3

Nice post,  but unfortunately you can’t extrapolate these 21 games into 38, as only a proportion of those games above would mirror the actual games we would play.  Assuming we go up you can only include 2 of Wolves (Assuming they are Championship winners) and 2 from another of the promoted teams alongside us....only 3 can go up.

If you then remove 6 fixtures (max) from the Texans that come down, you start to have a much smaller sample and can’t extrapolate when you’re missing Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs.....that’s 8 of the 38 games where ‘on paper’ we’d get minimal points, added to the 3 points from 3 games against the Manchester clubs, with just the trip to Old Trafford let.

I like the thought and effort that went into it though :clap:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Nice post,  but unfortunately you can’t extrapolate these 21 games into 38, as only a proportion of those games above would mirror the actual games we would play.  Assuming we go up you can only include 2 of Wolves (Assuming they are Championship winners) and 2 from another of the promoted teams alongside us....only 3 can go up.

If you then remove 6 fixtures (max) from the Texans that come down, you start to have a much smaller sample and can’t extrapolate when you’re missing Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs.....that’s 8 of the 38 games where ‘on paper’ we’d get minimal points, added to the 3 points from 3 games against the Manchester clubs, with just the trip to Old Trafford let.

I like the thought and effort that went into it though :clap:

Ok you're coming to the party with your realist hat on, I decided to just for once pop on the dreamer bonnet.  I acknowledge that the data is far from perfect.  However, as a bit of fun I'll address your points:

Firstly, yes you are correct that only three go up from the Championship.  However, it is arguable that any team in the top 6 of the Championship is good enough to go up.  The play-offs are something of a "lottery" and it is not unusual for the team that finishes 6th to be promoted.  Also, these top teams are the cream of the Championship crop and the closest we get to playing Premier League quality regularly.  Hence I included all of them.

I'm not sure why we are playing an NFL team...of course your phone has screwed you over when you wrote "team".  My point was that the 3 teams that came down last season could be presumed to approximate the quality of the three teams at the bottom of the Premier League at the moment. Hence I included them.

I agree we'd be unlikely to take points from the four clubs you list.

I think in another post I said that in reality you'd haver to treat this as the 20 (plus one) fixtures against the bottom half of the Premier League.  But who would complain if we went up and took 37 points from the bottom ten teams?  would you bet against us finding three more somewhere in the other 18 games?

I was just attempting to apply some evidence to OP's question.  Trying to move from pure guesswork to some sort of informed estimate.

We will find out next season I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With our current squad we'd be in or at least very close to the drop zone.

However should we get to the PL then no doubt LJ and MA will strengthen the squad accordingly. 

The EFL cup run against Man Citeh will have given LJ an insight into what it takes to survive in the PL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Ok you're coming to the party with your realist hat on, I decided to just for once pop on the dreamer bonnet.  I acknowledge that the data is far from perfect.  However, as a bit of fun I'll address your points:

Firstly, yes you are correct that only three go up from the Championship.  However, it is arguable that any team in the top 6 of the Championship is good enough to go up.  The play-offs are something of a "lottery" and it is not unusual for the team that finishes 6th to be promoted.  Also, these top teams are the cream of the Championship crop and the closest we get to playing Premier League quality regularly.  Hence I included all of them.

I'm not sure why we are playing an NFL team...of course your phone has screwed you over when you wrote "team".  My point was that the 3 teams that came down last season could be presumed to approximate the quality of the three teams at the bottom of the Premier League at the moment. Hence I included them.

I agree we'd be unlikely to take points from the four clubs you list.

I think in another post I said that in reality you'd haver to treat this as the 20 (plus one) fixtures against the bottom half of the Premier League.  But who would complain if we went up and took 37 points from the bottom ten teams?  would you bet against us finding three more somewhere in the other 18 games?

I was just attempting to apply some evidence to OP's question.  Trying to move from pure guesswork to some sort of informed estimate.

We will find out next season I guess.

Thanks for taking the time to explain... and put together the analysis initially  

i think what it proves is that you have 20+ “six pointers” and ultimately your fate will be determined by those.

I like your last sentence!  Let’s hope so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...