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Six Nations 2018 (Merged)


MichaelRobartes

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52 minutes ago, MichaelRobartes said:

Second round:

The first game in Dublin should be fairly straightforward. Nothing but a comprehensive win will do for Ireland, especially with Schmidt picking a few fringe guys and up-and-comers. I expect Ireland to pull away late and put a few scores on Italy like England did last weekend. Ireland by 35.

The tie of the weekend is obviously England against Wales. England are missing Ben Youngs for the rest of the tournament and whilst I think that Danny Care is a very good player I'm not sure that he offers the consistency that Youngs does. Interesting to see Joseph restored to the team at the expense of T'eo as well, a good move I think. Wales team of Scarlets plus special guests will be up against it, but I expect Patchell to continue stepping up in the big matches, despite Eddie Jones and his usual pound shop mind games. I wouldn't be surprised if Wales won this one, but I wouldn't put any money on it. England by 9.

Before last week I'd have fancied Scotland to hockey France at home, but after last week I'm not so sure. Injuries have forced France into a rethink at stand off and Beauxis is in for his first cap in a good while. What could possibly go wrong? Scotland by 7.

Can't argue too much with that. Only an Italy win would be surprising. The other ties are in the balance because Wales, Scotland and France will be unpredictable in how well they'll play. England should be solid but Wales are always dangerous, whilst the Scots and the French might well end up playing a game of 'who can shoot themselves in the foot the most'.

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On ‎04‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 16:16, Midred said:

Got it right second time!

Also happened in Bristol's first game in the Premiership last season. Ball went forward so clearly all 45000 at Twickenham could see it but the referee said it was inconclusive after watching it back.

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Ireland by 25

England by 10

Scotland by 5

Not too dissimilar to @Super's prediction. A round of Home Wins, but i dont think Ireland will win by that great a margin.

Ireland played well last week, but ultimately relied on a 45 meter drop goal in added time to win against a French side they expected to beat reasonably comfortably. The Irish coaching staff are sure to have fired a rocket up them all week to make sure when they do have control, they take their chances.

England will be better than they were last week and i expect Wales will be on a major high after beating Scotland so convincingly. Home advantage once again will play a part. I realised earlier, Wales have not beaten England in the 6 nations since 2013

Scotland and the Murrayfield crowd will expect a huge reaction after last week's game against Wales. France will either be superb or dreadful. There will never be an average French performance in a month of Sundays. Still anticipate Scotland to win but not by much

 

edit - just read @MichaelRobartes's comments, probably agree with all of it.

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5 hours ago, Super said:

Glad england won but still find that disallowed try a strange call!

Yes I don't know what the TMO was looking at. Looked a clear try to me and even Woodward and Wilkinson in the ITV studio agreed. Still, England found a way to win again. My Ireland +35 and England +9 predictions were only 5 points off. Possibly the best day of predictions I've ever had.

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Quick shout out to Bath boy Sam Underhill with one of the best try saving tackles you'll see at top level rugby. Absolute nailed on try but the covering tackle was simply superb. 

Bath and England can get 10 years out if he and Zach Mercer. 2 formidable back rowers. Hope ZM gets England cap soon. Thoroughly deserves one for his Bath performances this season. 

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1 hour ago, The Batman said:

Quick shout out to Bath boy Sam Underhill with one of the best try saving tackles you'll see at top level rugby. Absolute nailed on try but the covering tackle was simply superb. 

Bath and England can get 10 years out if he and Zach Mercer. 2 formidable back rowers. Hope ZM gets England cap soon. Thoroughly deserves one for his Bath performances this season. 

Yes, that was an incredible tackle. As Wilkinson observed afterwards it wasn't just the power and force it was the split second decision to know he had to flip the Welsh player over that was so intelligent.

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28 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Yes, that was an incredible tackle. As Wilkinson observed afterwards it wasn't just the power and force it was the split second decision to know he had to flip the Welsh player over that was so intelligent.

Didn't hear the after match analysis. Good to know he got some immediate recognition for it. 

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On 10/02/2018 at 21:02, Super said:

Glad england won but still find that disallowed try a strange call!

I've actually watched a super slow mo of it, can't remember who it was, but the guy before, his fingler flicks from ball pressure as well as coming off his knee, nothing else around to make it happen. It's the tiniest thing which I don't think would have been caught if that was what they were looking for on TMO. 

Find it funny my Welsh mates complaining about May's lack of grounding for the first one, yes he slides over and it doesn't ground..... he puts it down a second later closer to the posts, doesn't get in the way of the Welsh having a good moan though :laugh:

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Certain try in my opinion. If the roles had been reversed and that decision went against England, I'd be fuming. Proper tense game that though!

The Italians seem to be looking to play which is great. Their conceding loads but I feel like they could score an average of 20 points a game, given they have arguably played the best two sides so far. The Irish were just professional weren't they. 

How French are the French? Sublime tries, flair and skill, yet also no discipline and round the corner, blind passes on their own try line make them weak. The Scots were a bit clumsy at times but they took points with almost every attack, showing they can be clinical, and how important Laidlaw is for them.

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Agreed @Welcome To The Jungle I'd be absolutely raging if Munster or Ireland had had something as clear as that chalked off. I think that England would have won anyway (no particular reason, just a feeling) but it spoiled what was an enjoyable game for me a little bit. I love an armwrestle but there's really no justification for the TMO to be making that call when you see the replays he had access to.

I was also impressed by the Italians' attitude and disappointed that we conceded those late tries. Carberry is an amazing talent but our game management really suffered when Sexton went off and I'd be inclined to put Keatley on the bench given Sexton's injury record. 

Totally agree with you about the French as well. Hopefully Thomas has learned from his horrendous error v Castres in the European Cup. Very similar to the line he took for his try against us and his first yesterday with quite a different result!

That drop ended up costing Racing top spot in the pool and a home quarter final!

Their game management really is appalling though, I've rarely seen so many brainless penalties given away, especially in the second half, desperate stuff.

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3 minutes ago, Super said:

Sad to see that Ian Robertson is retiring at the end of the year after 46 years with the BBC. 

 

I second that, Super. Probably my favourite rugby commentator.

I see that France's plane has been grounded by police after some of the players were allegedly involved in a brawl last night. What were we saying about their indiscipline on the pitch?

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/six-nations/french-plane-grounded-in-scotland-as-police-question-a-number-of-players-following-incident-in-bar-36594131.html

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1 hour ago, MichaelRobartes said:

I second that, Super. Probably my favourite rugby commentator.

I see that France's plane has been grounded by police after some of the players were allegedly involved in a brawl last night. What were we saying about their indiscipline on the pitch?

https://www.independent.ie/sport/rugby/six-nations/french-plane-grounded-in-scotland-as-police-question-a-number-of-players-following-incident-in-bar-36594131.html

Not so much a brawl, apparently, more an allegation of sexual assault - since dropped, just like 'Hopefully Thomas has learned from his horrendous error v Castres in the European Cup. Very similar to the line he took for his try against us and his first yesterday with quite a different result!'

 

 

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1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Re: that disallowed Wales try...was there not an element of doubt on two counts:

1) did he actually put downward pressure on the ball? 

And

2) was he full control of the ball 

Does anyone actually know the bloody rules of rugby these days?

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12 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Re: that disallowed Wales try...was there not an element of doubt on two counts:

1) did he actually put downward pressure on the ball? 

And

2) was he full control of the ball 

Control is irrelevant when the ball is grounded in-goal now. The ruling in relation to downward pressure is the same but the interpretation has been relaxed to include pretty much any case where the attacking player makes any contact (hands, arms or front of body) with a grounded ball. I guess they've done this to produce more tries but I'm not sure how helpful it is to the officials.

http://laws.worldrugby.org/?law=21

To my mind that's a try under the current laws. The extent of downward pressure should be irrelevant and it's quite clear that his thumb and forefinger are on the grounded ball before Watson has made contact with it. Only issue is the possible knock on. I thought it was inconclusive and I think the ref asked "any reason I cannot award the try?" which means that the TMO needs clear evidence that a try has not been scored to chalk it off.

 

163916.jpg

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12 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

So-so marginal! He had a couple of fingers on the ball for a split second. In the case of the question @MichaelRobartes I'm pretty sure it was the "can I award a try yes or no?" question.

It's not my interpretation KITR. We're told that a couple of fingers is enough now. If it was "yes or no" then it makes more sense. In my view it would make it a lot easier if we went back to needing to be in control of the ball for the grounding to be completed.

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6 hours ago, MichaelRobartes said:

Control is irrelevant when the ball is grounded in-goal now. The ruling in relation to downward pressure is the same but the interpretation has been relaxed to include pretty much any case where the attacking player makes any contact (hands, arms or front of body) with a grounded ball. I guess they've done this to produce more tries but I'm not sure how helpful it is to the officials.

http://laws.worldrugby.org/?law=21

To my mind that's a try under the current laws. The extent of downward pressure should be irrelevant and it's quite clear that his thumb and forefinger are on the grounded ball before Watson has made contact with it. Only issue is the possible knock on. I thought it was inconclusive and I think the ref asked "any reason I cannot award the try?" which means that the TMO needs clear evidence that a try has not been scored to chalk it off.

 

163916.jpg

World Rugby have now confirmed that the TMO erred in not awarding the try.

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It was a knock on from the other Wales player beforehand anyway. Originally it looked like it came of his knee (what i thought originally which would not constitute a knock on) - but it shows a slight finger tip on the ball too, thus making a knock on.

Thus, anything else that happened after that is redundant.

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Onto round three:

France meet Italy in Paris tomorrow night. Jacques Brunel has made five changes, and has dropped several players including Thomas for "inappropriate behaviour". Bastareaud gets a recall after serving his ridiculously lenient ban for homophobic abuse. I think the Italians will continue some of the good work they've done so far and put a few scores together here, but ultimately will come up well short I suspect. France by 19.

Ireland host Wales and I'm really worried about this one. Wales seem to have had the measure of us recently and you have to go back to the 2014 Championship for our last competitive win against them. It seems that we'll be missing Furlong - the best tighthead in the world - and Henderson who is very important in the area that we currently have the least depth. It seems that Porter will come in for Furlong which - despite his being a great prospect - is a bold move when you see John Ryan regularly mincing international looseheads in Europe for Munster but there it is. Wales have Biggar and Halfpenny back too. Hope I'm wrong but Wales by 8.

I can't see past a win for England at Murrayfield. I was quite impressed with Scotland's determination to get the result the other week but as much as they deserved the win you have to say that France helped them with their totally brainless indiscipline in the second half. I agree with Ugo Monye that Finn Russell will be targeted by England. They exposed Patchell who I think is a really good player and Anscombe to some extent last week with their tactical kicking and Russell is another supremely talented guy who is prone to mistakes. I've seen him manage big games before and having Laidlaw's kicking and game management inside him could help but I'll be amazed if it's not an area England look to exploit. England by 12.

I've gone for two away wins there. I think I'm only really putting my neck on the line with the Ireland - Wales prediction though.

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France vs Italy - neither have won so far. Battle for the Wooden Spoon (is it still the Wooden spoon if they pick up Bonus points?) - If this was in Italy, I think Italy would scrape it. With it being in France, and with the backlash they;ve had after getting beaten in Scotland, I expect France to win and win big. France by 25.

Ireland vs Wales - always a great game this one. Wales have brought some players back after injury, but i still think home advantage and a better Irish side will come through. Ireland by 10

Scotland vs England - easy. England by 60, 50, 40, 30, 20.  actually this will be quite a tough game. England to win but not by very many, another win by attrition. England have the better forwards in Launchbury, Itoje and Lawes which will dominate the breakdown, push England forward and supply the perfect foundation for the backs to cause havoc. England by 8

 

I wasn't too far off the predictions a fortnight ago. Will it continue this weekend? let's watch and find out. 

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France - Italy

The Italians have been refreshingly attack minded in their first two games, and I can see them breaking the 20 point mark today against a French side that will give them field position through penalties. Despite their ill discipline, the French are clearly the better side on paper and should win, but if Italy can fully capitalise on the French discipline problems, and inevitable mistakes, they have a chance. 

France by 15

Ireland - Wales

The Irish love playing the Welsh about as much as most of us like a hot poker up the bum. The Welsh's fast pace always seems to unsettle a normally sturdy Irish defence. If they can get it wide quick and kick their points too, the Welsh have a great chance. The Irish on the other hand are methodically reliable, and should score around the 20 point mark. For me this game will be settled by how well the Irish can adjust their defence to deal with Wales, but they should have enough.

Ireland by 5

Scotland - England

The way the Scots hung in there against France before nicking it will give them renewed hope against the English. However perhaps Scotland's success a fortnight ago was more a French collapse than a Scottish triumph. Their defence is porous as the Welsh showed on game day 1, and England proved last year. With genuine ball carrying ability back in the form of Nathan Hughes, England have the platform off which Ford and Farrell can wreck havoc releasing the English runners. That said, if the Scots can find their form that they found in the Autumn against the Southern Hemisphere teams, then all bets are off.

England by 20 

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