ollywhyte Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Bit bored in my lunch break yesterday... Using a simple formula I have calculated who has the toughest run in purely based on league positions at this current stage. I have added the league position of each team together that we are each yet to play. The toughest run in is predicted by scoring the lowest overall number, which suggests the team is generally due to play tougher (higher placed) teams during the run in. I have excluded Wolves as they are as good as promoted and missed out teams below Middlesbrough, although on reflection I suppose nothing is stopping anyone having a great end of season run. These were the results: Fulham - 168 Preston - 177 Aston Villa - 183 Derby County - 185 Cardiff City - 185 Middlesbrough - 195 Bristol City - 201 Sheffield United - 203 TOUGHEST AVERAGE FAVOURABLE On paper it looks as if we have a decent run-in, but as we know anyone can beat anyone on their day in this league and after Saturday I'm not so sure you can read much into this! I thought it was worth posting anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glynriley Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, ollywhyte said: Bit bored in my lunch break yesterday... Using a simple formula I have calculated who has the toughest run in purely based on league positions at this current stage. I have added the league position of each team together that we are each yet to play. The toughest run in is predicted by scoring the lowest overall number, which suggests the team is generally due to play tougher (higher placed) teams during the run in. I have excluded Wolves as they are as good as promoted and missed out teams below Middlesbrough, although on reflection I suppose nothing is stopping anyone having a great end of season run. These were the results: Fulham - 168 Preston - 177 Derby County - 185 Cardiff City - 185 Middlesbrough - 195 Bristol City - 201 Sheffield United - 203 TOUGHEST AVERAGE FAVOURABLE On paper it looks as if we have a decent run-in, but as we know anyone can beat anyone on their day in this league and after Saturday I'm not so sure you can read much into this! I thought it was worth posting anyway. Villa?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollywhyte Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, glynriley said: Villa?? Balls! Fulham - 168 Preston - 177 Aston Villa - 183 Derby County - 185 Cardiff City - 185 Middlesbrough - 195 Bristol City - 201 Sheffield United - 203 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheshire_red Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Interesting post @ollywhyte. Of course there are if’s and but’s - but right now we are looking at teams around and below us. Fulham and Preston have both been on good runs, especially Fulham, has their form been skewed by the fact they’ve had an ‘easier’ run now up to now but now have tougher run in’s? Will they keep those runs going? The slight problem with your formula though I guess is that several of the teams at the bottom will start upping their games now as they fight for their lives - (Bolton just took 4 points from City and Fulham) but I guess that’s offset by the midtablers with less to play for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtonwurzel Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 If we are still top 6 after the next 3 games we will make the play-offs. The ones to worry about are Boro. Can see Preston and Sheff Utd falling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottyred Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Personally, I would rather play mid table teams towards the end of the season rather than teams fighting relegation. Teams down the bottom are fighting for their lives and are more likely to be a tougher opposition than a mid table team with nothing to play for, and with half their players just thinking about their summer holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SackyRed Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Scottyred said: Personally, I would rather play mid table teams towards the end of the season rather than teams fighting relegation. Teams down the bottom are fighting for their lives and are more likely to be a tougher opposition than a mid table team with nothing to play for, and with half their players just thinking about their summer holidays. Do you not think that a team battling for promotion would be far superior than a team battling for survival? There's a reason why they are down the bottom and why mid-table teams are where they are?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scottyred Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, SackyRed said: Do you not think that a team battling for promotion would be far superior than a team battling for survival? There's a reason why they are down the bottom and why mid-table teams are where they are?! I think that in the Championship, (bar a few teams such as Villa and Wolves), there isn't a great difference in standard between those near the top and those near the bottom. I believe a large factor in each team's success is their motivation, commitment and spirit. With that in mind, at the end of the season I'd much rather play a QPR side with nothing to play for than a Hull side fighting for Championship survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SackyRed Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Scottyred said: I think that in the Championship, (bar a few teams such as Villa and Wolves), there isn't a great difference in standard between those near the top and those near the bottom. I believe a large factor in each team's success is their motivation, commitment and spirit. With that in mind, at the end of the season I'd much rather play a QPR side with nothing to play for than a Hull side fighting for Championship survival. Okay - I think I'd rather play Burton and Barnsley than Ipswich and Norwich but I know who'd you rather play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1960maaan Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, SackyRed said: Do you not think that a team battling for promotion would be far superior than a team battling for survival? There's a reason why they are down the bottom and why mid-table teams are where they are?! And with that thinking we will stuff Sunderland at home, never as straight forward as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SackyRed Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, 1960maaan said: And with that thinking we will stuff Sunderland at home, never as straight forward as that. im not looking too much into that game, 9 times out of 10 we win that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SedRA Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 26 minutes ago, Scottyred said: I think that in the Championship, (bar a few teams such as Villa and Wolves), there isn't a great difference in standard between those near the top and those near the bottom. I believe a large factor in each team's success is their motivation, commitment and spirit. With that in mind, at the end of the season I'd much rather play a QPR side with nothing to play for than a Hull side fighting for Championship survival. I think you make an interesting point. Julian Nagelsmann the 'wunderkind' manager at Hoffenheim talks about football being '30% tactics 70% social competence' with the overall philosophy and group dynamics being more important than the individual technical ability. I wonder if sometimes the siege mentality of being in a relegation battle can help players get over individual issues and weed out the problems in group dynamics as the stakes get so high. You start to see the lower place teams 'up their game' as a unit as players start to get their own personal issues out of the way as the reality of relegation looms, much like what appeared to happen with us last season. So the gap in 'social competence' (which Nagelsmann deems so important as to the success of a team) between the higher and lower placed teams starts to diminish and leads to less clear cut differences in performances. Not saying this is true but an interesting idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveybadger Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Posted something similar a while ago in terms of City not having to play anybody in the top 6 after this month. One or two came back and said there would be plenty of surprises anyway which of course is true (and has proved to be since). One other factor to take into account is teams with possible new boss bounce factor, includingwhen you face the bounce and how bouncy it is. E.g Boro, Leeds, Forest, Barnsley off the top of my head. anyway I'll stop there before I become even more Partridge like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 49 minutes ago, SackyRed said: Okay - I think I'd rather play Burton and Barnsley than Ipswich and Norwich but I know who'd you rather play Clearly you do you not recall the run we went on towards the tail end of last season. We won 4, drew 1 and lost 1 of our last 6 including wins v Wolves and Brighton and a loss to Brum who were fighting for survival... and our draw.... against Blackburn fighting for survival. Teams around the bottom 'up' their game because they have more to play for. Someone in 12th spot is looking forward to the beach and not wishing an injury and rehab over the summer. I would 100% rather Ipswich and Norwich in April than Burton or Barnsley, without hesitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SackyRed Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, 29AR said: Clearly you do you not recall the run we went on towards the tail end of last season. We won 4, drew 1 and lost 1 of our last 6 including wins v Wolves and Brighton and a loss to Brum who were fighting for survival... and our draw.... against Blackburn fighting for survival. Teams around the bottom 'up' their game because they have more to play for. Someone in 12th spot is looking forward to the beach and not wishing an injury and rehab over the summer. I would 100% rather Ipswich and Norwich in April than Burton or Barnsley, without hesitation. I retract my statement and completely agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lrrr Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Was anything considered for the teams who are fighting relegation? When it comes towards the end, id rather play a team mid table with nothing to play for than a team fighting for their lives to stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, hodge said: Was anything considered for the teams who are fighting relegation? When it comes towards the end, id rather play a team mid table with nothing to play for than a team fighting for their lives to stay up. "Using a simple formula I have calculated who has the toughest run in purely based on league positions at this current stage" So... no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Pssst. ... @ollywhyte If you get really bored again sometime soon, the old Prediction League could do with a bit of updating ... Keep up the good work, when you can.. It's appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SedRA Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 So are we saying we actually have the 2nd toughest run in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pillred Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 3 hours ago, ollywhyte said: Bit bored in my lunch break yesterday... Using a simple formula I have calculated who has the toughest run in purely based on league positions at this current stage. I have added the league position of each team together that we are each yet to play. The toughest run in is predicted by scoring the lowest overall number, which suggests the team is generally due to play tougher (higher placed) teams during the run in. I have excluded Wolves as they are as good as promoted and missed out teams below Middlesbrough, although on reflection I suppose nothing is stopping anyone having a great end of season run. These were the results: Fulham - 168 Preston - 177 Aston Villa - 183 Derby County - 185 Cardiff City - 185 Middlesbrough - 195 Bristol City - 201 Sheffield United - 203 TOUGHEST AVERAGE FAVOURABLE On paper it looks as if we have a decent run-in, but as we know anyone can beat anyone on their day in this league and after Saturday I'm not so sure you can read much into this! I thought it was worth posting anyway. easier like Bolton and sunderland were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myol'man Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 To mis-quote Brian Clough, football is played on grass, not on paper (or an Excel spreadsheet!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.