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What's behind our mediocre 2018 form?


reddogkev

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I can't get my head around our continuing terrible form this year, which is in such stark contrast to 2017.

Does it all go back to the Man Utd win and the Man City cup games? 

Wonder if psychologically these games took on such an importance, the league lost some of it's worth to the players / coaches, and now we are struggling to regain the momentum.

Is this the reason?

Or has the loss of O'Dowda hit us harder than we could ever imagine?  When was Callum injured and when will he return?  He was becoming a fantastic player before his injury.

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In theory you'd think the momentum from the cup wins would be of benefit to us, just feels like the squad is too short on quality in numbers and players are sadly starting to look like they are running out of steam

Though it is odd that since the Utd victory the wheels have well and truly fallen off

BUT, I would rather get this shaky run out of the way now, rather than have it going into the play offs - at least by then we should be back in form again

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2 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

The tempo of our football has slowed - not sure of the reason ,even the first half against Sundeland we were ponderous too many touches and passes across the pitch.

Compare that against Barnsley at home where we just swept them away.

Why it should happen I have really no idea 

Good point - tempo slowing down.  Who used to set the pace and have they dropped off of their game? 

I do wonder if our confidence took a bashing during the villa rout and perhaps we haven't recovered.

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A few factors have hit us at totally the wrong time, a few key moments have gone against us. On the injury front O'Dowda got injured at the exact time that he was playing the best football of his life. He gave us a perfect balance as he works hard, tracks back and is obviously excellent going forward. Diedhou got hurt when he was starting to form partnerships with other forwards around him, Djuric the same leaving us with no target man style forward which meant we had to change our style of play that has been far less successful. This has only be highlighted by Famara's return and our improved attacking prowess.

Baker's red card, which could have gone either way, meant we lost our best player for three important, pivotal, games and that has undoubtedly hurt us from a quality standpoint but also in the way we have had to constantly shuffle our pack defensively. His return and that of Pisano in the near future should make a huge difference.

Finally you need a bit of luck and at the start of the season we had that and although obviously Sunderland shouldn't have got within 3 goals of us those own goals we as freak as can be. Those moments go for you when you're flying and invariably against you when times are tough. That last minute goal against Man City up there to lose a game which we all expected to lose probably had an unseen effect on some as for all those ties took it out of us fully to have gone to the Etihad and drawn with arguably the best side in the World would have given us a huge mental boost that helps to offset the huge physical effort. Small moments but can have larger effects.

As we start to get our players back fit and can afford to maybe not rely on some of the lesser squad players as our bench options we should hopefully start to look back to our old selves. Whether this little period has put us too far behind the pack or not to achieve the incredible we'll see but we've hopefully had our fair share of injuries and poor form that hopefully others still have to come! 

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7 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

The tempo of our football has slowed - not sure of the reason ,even the first half against Sundeland we were ponderous too many touches and passes across the pitch.

Compare that against Barnsley at home where we just swept them away.

Why it should happen I have really no idea 

Too many injuries. Lack of rotation. Knackered players!

brownhill especially has looked shot for energy for several weeks now. I’d put Paterson in that bracket too. 

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IMO it's down to fitness and stamina combined with a relatively small squad in terms of first team options.  

The style of fast paced pressing football that we play is what has got us this far, however we've got a squad of championship footballers playing premier league style of football so their fitness and stamina levels are out of step with the demands placed on them as a team. 

This is why we're only good for 60-70 minutes of football in 2018 per game before the pace starts to slow down, the  passes start to go awry, the counter attacks less threatening and the concentration at the back starts to wane. 

 

 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, phantom said:

In theory you'd think the momentum from the cup wins would be of benefit to us, just feels like the squad is too short on quality in numbers and players are sadly starting to look like they are running out of steam

Though it is odd that since the Utd victory the wheels have well and truly fallen off

BUT, I would rather get this shaky run out of the way now, rather than have it going into the play offs - at least by then we should be back in form again

Would say the wheels really came off post the Wolves loss at home- the late, probably undeserved loss.

Too short on quality in numbers? Maybe...but our medium-long term injuries have been a bit freakish. Could maybe be linked to our style of play eventually catching up.

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23 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

The tempo of our football has slowed - not sure of the reason ,even the first half against Sunderland we were ponderous too many touches and passes across the pitch.

Compare that against Barnsley at home where we just swept them away.

Why it should happen I have really no idea 

There’s more to it but it primarily boils down to nerves for me. Hence our last two results too.

Has LJ worked out how to address a loss in confidence in his side? His past three seasons would suggest not.

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5 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

A lack of available subs due to injury, and tiredness. I think LJ took a long time to change it at Leeds because he knew that we didn't have a suitable replacement for Fammy. We are really missing those injured players

BUT we went on a great run pre-Christmas despite Fammy and the other injured players not being available. So not being able to replace him can't be the only factor.

Since we started playing two up front and lost the extra body in midfield we seem to have struggled. Maybe playing Patterson central behind Bobby Reid, with JP in his best position and both taking turns to drop into midfield, actually worked better for us than 4-4-2.

We kind of stumbled on that combo as we had hardly any other fit options. Since Fammy came back and Kent signed we have moved away from what was working. Maybe.

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52 minutes ago, Abraham Romanovich said:

The tempo of our football has slowed - not sure of the reason ,even the first half against Sunderland we were ponderous too many touches and passes across the pitch.

Compare that against Barnsley at home where we just swept them away.

Why it should happen I have really no idea 

It’s the physical strains of playing the way that we do. It’s great when everyone is fit & fresh, but tiredness takes it’s toll. That’s why not many teams can adopt this style regularly. I think a lot of people don’t understand just how tough it is to play our way and keep it up without periods of under performing. Injuries have only stretched us even further. 

It makes it even more incredible just how much work Bobby puts in, without rest! 

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I think the Wolves game was more fundamental that the Villa one, you could argue that Villa may not have happened had we taken a point at least, against Wolves.

But in my opinion there is more to it than that.

1. Long term injuries

2. Bakers red card

3. Players starting to believe the whole 'hype' around themselves, particularly after the Manchester teams games.

4. Linked to above - particularly at Bolton and against Sunderland - complacency

5. Tactical naivety - losing a 3-0 goal lead should never be followed by losing a 2-0 lead against a team that offered very little until they got 1 back. When it got to 2-1 we all knew what was going to happen. 

6. Tactical naivety and not learning lessons - how many of the 5 goals conceded came from our left side when our FB decided to consistently drift inside, you can guarantee that will not be lost on Fulham and Cardiff - it needs sorting NOW !

7. A poor January window - been done to death - but it is a massive factor. We needed a RB and a Championship level goalscorer, we got neither.

8. Tiredness - both mental and physical due to point 7.

We still have an opportunity to make the play-offs but it will take quite a turnaround for that to happen. I hope I am completely wrong but I can see us getting nothing in the next two games which will only intensify the pressure.

Like others, I do worry about the 'streaky' nature of our Head Coaches teams - it happens too often for it just be be a coincidence - maybe he too, has listened too much to the praise we received from the national media.

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1 hour ago, robin_unreliant said:

This isn't meant as a dig but isn't this just what happens with LJ teams? Great runs interspersed with terrible ones.

Maybe when he works out why we will really kick on.

This in spades. Good start last season, media attention...wheels really fell off. Great start this season, cup run, media attention....wheels starting to fall off. It can't be coincidence.

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45 minutes ago, robin_unreliant said:

BUT we went on a great run pre-Christmas despite Fammy and the other injured players not being available. So not being able to replace him can't be the only factor.

Since we started playing two up front and lost the extra body in midfield we seem to have struggled. Maybe playing Patterson central behind Bobby Reid, with JP in his best position and both taking turns to drop into midfield, actually worked better for us than 4-4-2.

We kind of stumbled on that combo as we had hardly any other fit options. Since Fammy came back and Kent signed we have moved away from what was working. Maybe.

yes but Nathan Baker was banned, plus Duric and Matty Taylor were available before Christmas too. The dip in form has imo been for different reasons in each match but basically we don't have the depth of squad available to replace tired/injured players. Taking Mags out, meaning JB has to move to LB, then putting Flinty up front against Villa because we were missing Duric, Frankie getting red carded against Wolves upset the team again. I think the dip in form can be explained better if you look at each game in isolation, it's just that we still don't have adequate cover that it has turned into a 'run' of poor results.

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4 hours ago, nickolas said:

Too many injuries. Lack of rotation. Knackered players!

This basically.

There's no way we're playing with the same 90 minutes of stamina that was such a feature in the first quarter of the season - at the time it looked superhuman, I can think of several games where we very visibly outlasted our opponents and were still going hell for leather for it at the end. Haven't seen that since the big cup games.

We've conceded a lot of second half goals since (and including) Wolves, whether that's coincidence or related to stamina/fitness I don't know. But we certainly haven't been able to sustain our most effective style of football later in matches. Not just injuries either, Johnson obviously doesn't trust Elliason, Woodrow, Walsh etc enough.

But injuries are a big part, we really miss Duric and to a lesser extent Taylor from the bench. Duric is a phenomenal outlet for the second half of games. Our run of results (and late finishes) with him involved, were not coincidental. He is like being able to drop anchor to maintain forward position, rather than surrendering the pitch late on.

Notwithstanding all this, what I would add, is something much more mundane - swings and roundabouts. We won some games in 2017 we had little right to, now we're not winning some games we should do. We weren't as good as our best form suggested and we're certainly not as as bad as our current form might suggest either...

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5 hours ago, nickolas said:

Too many injuries. Lack of rotation. Knackered players!

brownhill especially has looked shot for energy for several weeks now. I’d put Paterson in that bracket too. 

This is it, they are shot,, we have a core of players who have played nearly 40 games this season, 1 or 2 who wre in the 20s, and everyone else who are just squad players making up the numbers, the high press offensive players have run out of steam, im hoping that baker feels the benefit of his mini break, and that pack will too. How reid is still doing it is a mystery to me? They are knackered, and what was done in january by the club to help the manager and players just wasnt good enough.

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5 hours ago, robin_unreliant said:

BUT we went on a great run pre-Christmas despite Fammy and the other injured players not being available. So not being able to replace him can't be the only factor.

Since we started playing two up front and lost the extra body in midfield we seem to have struggled. Maybe playing Patterson central behind Bobby Reid, with JP in his best position and both taking turns to drop into midfield, actually worked better for us than 4-4-2.

We kind of stumbled on that combo as we had hardly any other fit options. Since Fammy came back and Kent signed we have moved away from what was working. Maybe.

No doubt at all about that.

Patterson has been used as a winger, nullifying his mobility, which previously caused the opposition problems, as no one defender was allocated to mark him.

We were tired as a team prior to the Wolves game, changes were made which disrupted the formation, Frankie got caught out and suspended. His replacement wasn't quite as good, we lost and confidence went slightly, followed by three tough away games, minds on other things. Team changes against Norwich didn't work. And subsequently team formations to accommodate new/returning players, plus a suspension, have all resulted in a disrupted team.

What's the answer? In my opinion, stick with the team that did so well before Christmas, with our recognised players in their usual position, that includes BW at RB and Magnússon at LB, as the team know how it works. Then use the returning/new players from the bench only, to help out the regular team in the latter stages of a game, or because of injury.

 

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I do not get this ‘cup run took it out of us’ stuff - Wigan have beaten three premier league teams in the FA Cup this season, and they had a couple of replays to cope with in the FA Cup too - but they have managed to keep fine form up in League One and are currently one point from automatic promotion with three games in hand on the leaders.

Their cup heroics, including the amazing result against the best team in the country last night, doesn’t seem to have hampered their league form too much...

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6 hours ago, ciderwithtommy said:

I think the big change has been post Wolves at home, the nature of the defeat, and suspension to Frank was gutting. We now look fatigued and low on confidence, we need a "Wolves" game of our own, to drive belief. Only my opinion mind. 

100% agree with this. That late goal was a huge phycological blow and potential turning point in our season. Evidently we haven’t recovered yet. 

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