BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Let’s park Sunday, temporarily, as there’s going to be no shortage of discussion about that particular game. Worst case scenario, after everyone has played round 34, we will be 4 points from 6th and 13 from 2nd. Best case we could be 5th and almost as close to 2nd as we are from 7th. Reality probably somewhere in the middle ground. But with 12 games, and 36 points to be contested for, a lot of time and a lot of football to be played. Fulham are probably the best footballing side in the league aside from maybe Wolves. We will face different types of tests but on paper yesterday’s game was as tricky as they come. We proved last night (and all season really) that we can match the best sides in the league when we’re at the races. We are about to go into the biggest 12 games in a decade. Those games.... 6 home, 6 away H : Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, Brentford, Birmingham, Hull, Sheffield United A : PNE, Burton, Barnsley, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest Too soon to say categorically, but let’s assume the worst happens on Sunday and we accept that we will end up competing for 3rd-6th and not 2nd, what do we need to do to secure it? In the last ten seasons, the average points required to secure a playoff spot has been 73.6 (high of 80 - last season) and low of 68 (12/13). In 8 of the last 10 championship seasons, 75 points has been enough to see a playoff place achieved. So taking the worst case view, 21 points needed from 36 (however in 50% of the last ten seasons, less than that has been needed) Certainly sounds doable to me. This League never goes the way you think, as we all know, but put another way - statistically speaking wins at home against Ipswich, Brum and Hull, and wins at Burton, Barnsley and Millwall should see us most of the way there, assuming we can pick up some points elsewhere. After Sunday only a third of our remaining games are against sides in the top half. I haven’t looked at the run ins of other clubs challenging for top six, but I think there’s a good few fixtures still to be played between those with their eye on the top six. On paper our run in looks about as good as you could have hoped. Realistically if we can’t get c. 20 points from those 36 you’d have to say we’re probably not deserving of a top six finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I think those away fixtures are tough with many having something to play for and a trip to Millwall is never easy. May need 5 home wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daored Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: Let’s park Sunday, temporarily, as there’s going to be no shortage of discussion about that particular game. Worst case scenario, after everyone has played round 34, we will be 4 points from 6th and 13 from 2nd. Best case we could be 5th and almost as close to 2nd as we are from 7th. Reality probably somewhere in the middle ground. But with 12 games, and 36 points to be contested for, a lot of time and a lot of football to be played. Fulham are probably the best footballing side in the league aside from maybe Wolves. We will face different types of tests but on paper yesterday’s game was as tricky as they come. We proved last night (and all season really) that we can match the best sides in the league when we’re at the races. We are about to go into the biggest 12 games in a decade. Those games.... 6 home, 6 away H : Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, Brentford, Birmingham, Hull, Sheffield United A : PNE, Burton, Barnsley, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest Too soon to say categorically, but let’s assume the worst happens on Sunday and we accept that we will end up competing for 3rd-6th and not 2nd, what do we need to do to secure it? In the last ten seasons, the average points required to secure a playoff spot has been 73.6 (high of 80 - last season) and low of 68 (12/13). In 8 of the last 10 championship seasons, 75 points has been enough to see a playoff place achieved. So taking the worst case view, 21 points needed from 36 (however in 50% of the last ten seasons, less than that has been needed) Certainly sounds doable to me. This League never goes the way you think, as we all know, but put another way - statistically speaking wins at home against Ipswich, Brum and Hull, and wins at Burton, Barnsley and Millwall should see us most of the way there, assuming we can pick up some points elsewhere. After Sunday only a third of our remaining games are against sides in the top half. I haven’t looked at the run ins of other clubs challenging for top six, but I think there’s a good few fixtures still to be played between those with their eye on the top six. On paper our run in looks about as good as you could have hoped. Realistically if we can’t get c. 20 points from those 36 you’d have to say we’re probably not deserving of a top six finish. As you say our run in doesn’t look that bad. However, our record against the teams lower in the league has been disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, daored said: As you say our run in doesn’t look that bad. However, our record against the teams lower in the league has been disappointing It has yeah. But I’d still rather be playing Burton and Brum than Villa and Derby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 I dont go on previous seasons as think it is pretty irrelevant. All about average points per games and allowing for a bit of upside. If you assume Sheffield United win their game in hand then extrapolate from there, we will need 77 points. 23 points minimum from 13 games. Maybe 26 points. Gonna be tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, RedDave said: I dont go on previous seasons as think it is pretty irrelevant. All about average points per games and allowing for a bit of upside. If you assume Sheffield United win their game in hand then extrapolate from there, we will need 77 points. 23 points minimum from 13 games. Maybe 26 points. Gonna be tough It’s a fairly sensible indicator and a good base to work from. Extrapolation of points to date doesn’t really work - you just end up with the same league table as you have now but over 46 games. A better indicator would be comparing the last ten seasons at the exact same stage in the season to see how this season compares, but I can’t be arsed even if it is all out there! 77 would be higher than has been needed in 8 out of the last 10 so you’d have to say on balance that it’s improbable that 77 would be needed this year. It certainly will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewquayRed Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 It's the away games where teams come at us with something to play for that works in our favour, i'm feeling really optimistic about the run in and believe we will be in with a shout till the end - who would have thought that in August ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: It’s a fairly sensible indicator and a good base to work from. Extrapolation of points to date doesn’t really work - you just end up with the same league table as you have now but over 46 games. A better indicator would be comparing the last ten seasons at the exact same stage in the season to see how this season compares, but I can’t be arsed even if it is all out there! 77 would be higher than has been needed in 8 out of the last 10 so you’d have to say on balance that it’s improbable that 77 would be needed this year. It certainly will be tough. Agreed to your point about not being arsed - thought the same! If it was 1/2 teams chasin us then think it would be lower but as four teams i do think it will be around 77. If it is then 23 points from 13 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats!! Lets hope it is less as that seems very tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myol'man Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: Let’s park Sunday, temporarily, as there’s going to be no shortage of discussion about that particular game. Worst case scenario, after everyone has played round 34, we will be 4 points from 6th and 13 from 2nd. Best case we could be 5th and almost as close to 2nd as we are from 7th. Reality probably somewhere in the middle ground. But with 12 games, and 36 points to be contested for, a lot of time and a lot of football to be played. Fulham are probably the best footballing side in the league aside from maybe Wolves. We will face different types of tests but on paper yesterday’s game was as tricky as they come. We proved last night (and all season really) that we can match the best sides in the league when we’re at the races. We are about to go into the biggest 12 games in a decade. Those games.... 6 home, 6 away H : Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, Brentford, Birmingham, Hull, Sheffield United A : PNE, Burton, Barnsley, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest Too soon to say categorically, but let’s assume the worst happens on Sunday and we accept that we will end up competing for 3rd-6th and not 2nd, what do we need to do to secure it? In the last ten seasons, the average points required to secure a playoff spot has been 73.6 (high of 80 - last season) and low of 68 (12/13). In 8 of the last 10 championship seasons, 75 points has been enough to see a playoff place achieved. So taking the worst case view, 21 points needed from 36 (however in 50% of the last ten seasons, less than that has been needed) Certainly sounds doable to me. This League never goes the way you think, as we all know, but put another way - statistically speaking wins at home against Ipswich, Brum and Hull, and wins at Burton, Barnsley and Millwall should see us most of the way there, assuming we can pick up some points elsewhere. After Sunday only a third of our remaining games are against sides in the top half. I haven’t looked at the run ins of other clubs challenging for top six, but I think there’s a good few fixtures still to be played between those with their eye on the top six. On paper our run in looks about as good as you could have hoped. Realistically if we can’t get c. 20 points from those 36 you’d have to say we’re probably not deserving of a top six finish. Why do you say 80 points for last season? Fulham finished 6th on 80 points but Leeds in 7th only had 75, so 76 points would have done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, myol'man said: Why do you say 80 points for last season? Fulham finished 6th on 80 points but Leeds in 7th only had 75, so 76 points would have done it. Erm, if Fulham finished in 6th with 80, how would 76 do it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedDave said: Agreed to your point about not being arsed - thought the same! If it was 1/2 teams chasin us then think it would be lower but as four teams i do think it will be around 77. If it is then 23 points from 13 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats!! Lets hope it is less as that seems very tricky Yeah to be honest there’s way too many variables including who still has to play who etc. I don’t think you could ever really draw a definitive conclusion from prior seasons. 24 / 36 points would all but guarantee it, you would think. 8 wins from 12. Massive task but not out of the realms of possibility. A lot will come down to how the next 4-6 games go. Get off to a good start in the ‘block of 12’ and the momentum starts growing. Only win 1 of the next 3/4 and all of a sudden you’ll have a mountain to climb and running out of time. Next few weeks are pivotal. But you’ve got to look at the next few weeks and say that Sheff W, Ipswich, Burton and Barnsley gives us a really good opportunity if we can sieze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, Super said: I think those away fixtures are tough with many having something to play for and a trip to Millwall is never easy. May need 5 home wins. That’s the thing, you can say that about any block of six games in this league. What a league it is. But realistically can you find a block of 12 games from anyone else’s schedule that you’d take over ours? I’ve only had a brief look but some teams in the mix have some tough ties. After Sunday we’ve played every team in the current top six twice which has to be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewquayRed Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: That’s the thing, you can say that about any block of six games in this league. What a league it is. But realistically can you find a block of 12 games from anyone else’s schedule that you’d take over ours? I’ve only had a brief look but some teams in the mix have some tough ties. Very true that, last nights performance has demonstrated that we can mix it up with the best in this division and that August - December was no fluke. Just needs to start kicking ass in the bottom 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderingred Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Christ, are there really only 13 games left? That's come around so quickly. Only a quarter (ish) of the season left and we sit in a top six place. If you'd told me that would be the case in August, I would have accused you of smoking crack. Probably most of us would have the same sentiments so let's remember that whatever happens in the run in. Cardiff a Draw Sheff Wed h Win Preston a Lose Burton a Win Ipswich h Win Barnsley a Win Brentford h Lose Millwall a Draw Birmingham h Win Middlesbro a Lose Hull h Win Forest a Draw Sheff Utd h Draw I think those predictions are fairly reasonable. Would put us on 76 points. Enough?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wanderingred said: Christ, are there really only 13 games left? That's come around so quickly. Only a quarter (ish) of the season left and we sit in a top six place. If you'd told me that would be the case in August, I would have accused you of smoking crack. Probably most of us would have the same sentiments so let's remember that whatever happens in the run in. Cardiff a Draw Sheff Wed h Win Preston a Lose Burton a Win Ipswich h Win Barnsley a Win Brentford h Lose Millwall a Draw Birmingham h Win Middlesbro a Lose Hull h Win Forest a Draw Sheff Utd h Draw I think those predictions are fairly reasonable. Would put us on 76 points. Enough?? Fairly similar predictions to me although head tells me defeat on Sunday. But I think we’re good enough to come away from the PNE and Brentford games with a point. Bound to be the odd defeat that no one sees coming but I’m not sure I’d swap our run in for someone else’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 35 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: Let’s park Sunday, temporarily, as there’s going to be no shortage of discussion about that particular game. Worst case scenario, after everyone has played round 34, we will be 4 points from 6th and 13 from 2nd. Best case we could be 5th and almost as close to 2nd as we are from 7th. Reality probably somewhere in the middle ground. But with 12 games, and 36 points to be contested for, a lot of time and a lot of football to be played. Fulham are probably the best footballing side in the league aside from maybe Wolves. We will face different types of tests but on paper yesterday’s game was as tricky as they come. We proved last night (and all season really) that we can match the best sides in the league when we’re at the races. We are about to go into the biggest 12 games in a decade. Those games.... 6 home, 6 away H : Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich, Brentford, Birmingham, Hull, Sheffield United A : PNE, Burton, Barnsley, Millwall, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest Too soon to say categorically, but let’s assume the worst happens on Sunday and we accept that we will end up competing for 3rd-6th and not 2nd, what do we need to do to secure it? In the last ten seasons, the average points required to secure a playoff spot has been 73.6 (high of 80 - last season) and low of 68 (12/13). In 8 of the last 10 championship seasons, 75 points has been enough to see a playoff place achieved. So taking the worst case view, 21 points needed from 36 (however in 50% of the last ten seasons, less than that has been needed) Certainly sounds doable to me. This League never goes the way you think, as we all know, but put another way - statistically speaking wins at home against Ipswich, Brum and Hull, and wins at Burton, Barnsley and Millwall should see us most of the way there, assuming we can pick up some points elsewhere. After Sunday only a third of our remaining games are against sides in the top half. I haven’t looked at the run ins of other clubs challenging for top six, but I think there’s a good few fixtures still to be played between those with their eye on the top six. On paper our run in looks about as good as you could have hoped. Realistically if we can’t get c. 20 points from those 36 you’d have to say we’re probably not deserving of a top six finish. Am I the only one who thinks none of those games are going to be easy ? What price would you get on a scenario of both City and Sheffield United needing a win on the last day to bag a play off place ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roddy-d Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wanderingred said: Christ, are there really only 13 games left? That's come around so quickly. Only a quarter (ish) of the season left and we sit in a top six place. If you'd told me that would be the case in August, I would have accused you of smoking crack. Probably most of us would have the same sentiments so let's remember that whatever happens in the run in. Cardiff a Draw Sheff Wed h Win Preston a Lose Burton a Win Ipswich h Win Barnsley a Win Brentford h Lose Millwall a Draw Birmingham h Win Middlesbro a Lose Hull h Win Forest a Draw Sheff Utd h Draw I think those predictions are fairly reasonable. Would put us on 76 points. Enough?? I honestly think we will do better than your predictions. With players coming back. LJ hopefully changing things like last night. We will become less predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderingred Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Fulhams fixtures: Wolves H Derby A Sheff Utd H Preston A QPR H Norwich A Leeds H Sheff Wed A Brentford H Millwall A Sunderland H Birmingham A Sheff Utd's fixtures Hull A Reading A Burton H Fulham A Ipswich A Nottm Forest H Brentford A Cardiff H Barnsley A Middlesbro A Millwall H Birmingham A Preston H Bristol City A Middlesbrough's fixtures: Sunderland A Leeds H Birmingham A Barnsley H Brentford A Wolves H Burton A Nottm Forest H Sheff Utd A Bristol City H Derby A Millwall H Ipswich A Preston's fixtures Ipswich H Bolton A Bristol City H Fulham H Sunderland A Sheff Wed A Derby H Reading A Leeds H QPR A Norwich H Sheff Utd A Burton H Brentford's fixtures Leeds A Cardiff H Burton A Millwall A Middlesbro H Sheff Utd H Bristol City A Ipswich H Nottm Forest A Fulham A QPR H Barnsley A Hull H Fulham have the toughest run in imho (their next four... Ouch!) and Brentford probably have the most straightforward although obviously it rarely turns out that way. A good thing is that after Saturday we have no more games against the teams pushing for auto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Cardiff a Lose Sheff Wed h Win Preston a Draw Burton a Win Ipswich h Win Barnsley a Draw Brentford h Draw Millwall a Lose Birmingham h Win Middlesbro a Lose Hull h Win Forest a Draw Sheff Utd h Win Got 22 points from 13 games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, Major Isewater said: Am I the only one who thinks none of those games are going to be easy ? What price would you get on a scenario of both City and Sheffield United needing a win on the last day to bag a play off place ? Absolutely they’re not easy. No such thing as an easy tie in this league. But, if you had to pick 12 games out of a hat to end the season with, I reckon 9 out of 10 times you’re going to come out with a more intimidating looking set of fixtures than what we have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessandro Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 29 minutes ago, myol'man said: Why do you say 80 points for last season? Fulham finished 6th on 80 points but Leeds in 7th only had 75, so 76 points would have done it. 28 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: Erm, if Fulham finished in 6th with 80, how would 76 do it?! What he is saying is if Fulham had finished on 76 they would have still been in 6th place, as Leeds had 75. 75 with a superior goal difference could have also done it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Alessandro said: What he is saying is if Fulham had finished on 76 they would have still been in 6th place, as Leeds had 75. 75 with a superior goal difference could have also done it. Doh! I getcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Super said: Cardiff a Lose Sheff Wed h Win Preston a Draw Burton a Win Ipswich h Win Barnsley a Draw Brentford h Draw Millwall a Lose Birmingham h Win Middlesbro a Lose Hull h Win Forest a Draw Sheff Utd h Win Got 22 points from 13 games Would take that now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZiderEyed Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 Be nice if the club could sort some subsidised travel for those massive away games coming up. Millwall the only one that's really viable for me as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said: Be nice if the club could sort some subsidised travel for those massive away games coming up. Millwall the only one that's really viable for me as it is. Certainly the Preston midweek game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said: Be nice if the club could sort some subsidised travel for those massive away games coming up. Millwall the only one that's really viable for me as it is. @Matt Parsons BCFCSLO we are entering what is the biggest couple of months in a decade. Anything the club can do to get home and away games packed out could be the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZiderEyed Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Super said: Certainly the Preston midweek game. Lads deserve the support as well, Preston away is always fun, would do it in a heartbeat if we had a cheaper coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewquayRed Posted February 22, 2018 Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 8 minutes ago, BRISTOL86 said: Would take that now! Really hope that final game of the season has something riding on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said: Lads deserve the support as well, Preston away is always fun, would do it in a heartbeat if we had a cheaper coach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRISTOL86 Posted February 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewquayRed said: Really hope that final game of the season has something riding on it I don’t. I hope we’ve clinched 2nd by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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