Awful Run of Form

[DT The Optimist]

 No, that cup run did us and all the hype around it, beating Man Ure, national spot light, too many games in December and January and perhaps running out of steam and never really getting back up to speed.   injuries, players not fit and suspensions. It will be an interesting back line with no Flint or JB for the next few games.  Add on to that a poor transfer window in January when the ‘reinforcements’ have not had any real impact. 

We are where we are and 30 points to play for. 

[CotswoldRed]

What grates a bit is the hype. We believed it a bit too much and haven't been the same since December. 

When Pep told us (I paraphrase)  "see you in the Prem" we assumed it was going to happen. 

I'm nothing like as dismayed as last year. Mainly because we've not been at risk of relegation,  partly because of the enjoyable cup run, but also because I've never felt we were as good as the common belief suggested. 

While we still have a chance of promotion I've thought from day one we are a mid-table side and that's where we are likely to end up. 

An improvement on last year, but at considerable financial cost.

[Rob k]

3 minutes ago, CotswoldRed said:

What grates a bit is the hype. We believed it a bit too much and haven't been the same since December. 

When Pep told us (I paraphrase)  "see you in the Prem" we assumed it was going to happen. 

I'm nothing like as dismayed as last year. Mainly because we've not been at risk of relegation,  partly because of the enjoyable cup run, but also because I've never felt we were as good as the common belief suggested. 

While we still have a chance of promotion I've thought from day one we are a mid-table side and that's where we are likely to end up. 

An improvement on last year, but at considerable financial cost.

I get where your coming from but was it hype at that time? Let’s not forget we have seen some of the best football I’ve ever seen at AG this season, have we seen many better goals than Josh Brownhills on sat? 

We should have done better in the Jan transfer window and thats what will cost us but as a club we’re in good health 

[daored]

7 hours ago, Wanderingred said:

Yep it's been a spectacular collapse.

The frustrating thing is that on three occasions (QPR, Fulham and Sheff Wed) we looked to have turned the corner with decent performances, only to be shite again the following game. This bad run is like a turd that won't flush. It's not simply a case of getting a win to restore confidence, it's much deeper than that. We made a dogs dinner of the January window, players have lost form and confidence and injuries have crippled us.

All that said, LJ has got us out of darker spots than this, no reason to think that he won't do it again. Whether it will be enough for the top six though, I seriously doubt.

Every club goes through bad runs it’s the nature of the game, my biggest concern is that Johnson appears to have these long runs on a frequent basis. When he took over Barnsley fans were happy for him to leave and Barnsley had been on an awful run. Last season the run we had was the worst in our club history and fans calling for Johnson to go. This season our recent run of form is also awful.

Whilst i accept there are reasons for this, our injuries are a major factor, these runs seem to be part of when Johnson is in charge of a football club. Add in the comeback from the opposition this season by Sunderland and Leeds, last season  against Reading and Cardiff and it’s history repeating itself.

On a positive the season has been fantastic, but unfortunately it will go down as a what if , for the majority 

[Gifford]

Can we stop including cup games in this run? We've not lost points directly from the Watford and Man City games. It makes a bad situation look worse than what it is.

[Kid in the Riot]

13 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Whichever way you cut it, this now has to be considered a properly bad run of form that we're on. Not quite on a par with last season, yet...

But since the Man U game it's 3 wins in 17. The 17 games previous to that? We won 12 of them! Take out the cup defeats and in the league our last 14 reads: W3 D5 L6 = 14pts = relegation form over nearly a third of the league season.

 

3 hours ago, Gifford said:

Can we stop including cup games in this run? We've not lost points directly from the Watford and Man City games. It makes a bad situation look worse than what it is.

I did a comparison without cup games, see above...

[Spike]

Two bad runs of form in two of LJ's full seasons in managing us and both in the second half of the season, for me this screams out tiredness/ lack of depth in the squad to rest those who need it. The thing that worries me the most is a lot of our fans still look at the positives and refuse to accept that both of these bad form runs have killed our early season goals. The first season with the run of bad form took us from the top 6 places right down to a relegation battle and now this run has taken us from a fight for automatic promotion to potentially end up mid-table.
I understand wanting to look at the positives but at what point do we stop accepting these awful runs of form as "just a blip" and accept them for what they are, bad/inexperienced management.
Again I'll say it, I don't want Johnson sacked, but someone close to him needs to point out his need for depth, we can't keep relying on players to play 40+ games a season because we don't have the quality to mix things up when it's needed. Not only are we easier to read when we lack variety in our playstyle but with the inability to mix up the starting line without sacrificing quality we're just as easy to manage by the opposition.

I know a lot of people keep saying "we beat United and gave Man City two great games" and you're right to say it BUT there was a big difference between the Manchester clubs and the teams we're losing to, both Manchester clubs attacked us and that played into the hands of our playstyle, the issue comes when you have teams who don't attack us, but rather they play a strong defensive line up and use our inability to break down defensive teams against us. United came all out for us and it allowed us the space to play the football we wanted to and eventually break them down, Man City went full on attack and pinned us back meaning when we did get the ball we had the space going forward to counter them, the Championship teams have seen those games and now cottoned on to how to beat us, sit back, allow us forward with numbers in front of us, we struggle to create without the space to pass into and then they hit us with a counter and they have that space to play into. The fact that LJ hasn't adapted to this is what honestly worries me the most about him, it's making me start to think he only knows how to get a team to play one way and that just isn't good enough to get results consistently once teams figure you out.

[cidered abroad]

Some of us don't complain and criticise for the sake of it or because we're just miserable sods. 

I also don't understand how so many can bury their heads in the sand and call it a blip. 

For the second consecutive year, we have grossly underperformed for one third of the league season. 

The positive one's keep saying it will be over soon. Definition of soon? 

We'll possibly have three of our first choice back four out of the side for the next two/three games. I see this torrid run going on for a lot longer. 

[Dingbat]

4 hours ago, daored said:

Every club goes through bad runs it’s the nature of the game, my biggest concern is that Johnson appears to have these long runs on a frequent basis. When he took over Barnsley fans were happy for him to leave and Barnsley had been on an awful run. Last season the run we had was the worst in our club history and fans calling for Johnson to go. This season our recent run of form is also awful.

Whilst i accept there are reasons for this, our injuries are a major factor, these runs seem to be part of when Johnson is in charge of a football club. Add in the comeback from the opposition this season by Sunderland and Leeds, last season  against Reading and Cardiff and it’s history repeating itself.

On a positive the season has been fantastic, but unfortunately it will go down as a what if , for the majority 

Couldn't agree more with this. For the third season running he's had a run of results that would have sees a lot of managers sacked. I'm not advocating that he should be sacked now as, as daored mentions, there are reasons out of his control that at least go some way to explaining the results. I just hope that next season Johnson can learn how to steady the ship once we get in a run like this. There are certain managers in this league, and we all know who they are, that would immediately shore up and solidify the team at even a sniff of getting on a bad run.

[Spike]

3 minutes ago, Dingbat said:

Couldn't agree more with this. For the third season running he's had a run of results that would have sees a lot of managers sacked. I'm not advocating that he should be sacked now as, as daored mentions, there are reasons out of his control that at least go some way to explaining the results. I just hope that next season Johnson can learn how to steady the ship once we get in a run like this. There are certain managers in this league, and we all know who they are, that would immediately shore up and solidify the team at even a sniff of getting on a bad run.

Yeah but our fans hate one particular manager in that category, myself included 
I think this is where we'll always struggle, as fans we seem to want a likable manager who can do an amazing job on a mid-table to lower half budget and do it all with good football... it's not like we ask for much 

[phantom]

I don't want to turn this into an anti LJ thread but there is something VERY wrong that each season his side goes on one of these terrible runs!

Can't be a coincidence now surely?

Is it down to players being trained too hard / playing a certain way and getting injured?

[Lorenzos Only Goal]

I'd say luck rather than form, I was expecting march to look better with people returning from injury.  But now we have Flint and Joe out.  This is going to chuff our play off chances big style. 

[cidered abroad]

6 minutes ago, Spike said:

Yeah but our fans hate one particular manager in that category, myself included 
I think this is where we'll always struggle, as fans we seem to want a likable manager who can do an amazing job on a mid-table to lower half budget and do it all with good football... it's not like we ask for much 

But we don't have to have an unlikeable manager. There are some who, imo, are a lot more streetwise than LJ but are also not in the nasty league like the Warnocks. Some who would have probably had us all but promoted by now if they had the resources available that we have. 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

12 hours ago, spudski said:

We just aren't cute enough in certain situations.

Preston's second goal should have been sorted out near the half way line when McGuire received the ball. Commit a foul...why allow a player to run at you from that far out? Commit foul and reorganise.

The problem with the 2nd goal was the cavalier attitude of sending virtually the whole of the back 4 up into attacking positions for I believe a corner, pretty much leaving Smith alone at the back, this was just a few minutes after we had equalised in a game that we were being out thought, out played and certainly in certain cases out fought, instead of taking stock playing conservatively and waiting patiently for another chance to come our way.

[BCFCinNW6]

15 minutes ago, phantom said:

I don't want to turn this into an anti LJ thread but there is something VERY wrong that each season his side goes on one of these terrible runs!

Can't be a coincidence now surely?

Is it down to players being trained too hard / playing a certain way and getting injured?

It's now officially called the 'Johnson Slump' 

You heard it here first!

[spudski]

11 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

The problem with the 2nd goal was the cavalier attitude of sending virtually the whole of the back 4 up into attacking positions for I believe a corner, pretty much leaving Smith alone at the back, this was just a few minutes after we had equalised in a game that we were being out thought, out played and certainly in certain cases out fought, instead of taking stock playing conservatively and waiting patiently for another chance to come our way.

Smith and Bryan should have easily dealt with that between them EMB.

In fact imo, Bryan was at fault for the first goal. He goes charging into the right midfielder...it was an amateurish challenge, that was easily brushed aside. Left Mags under pressure again.

I'd love to know whether Fielding also called for that ball...he comes charging out and no way would have made it before the on coming opponent. Left Mags in a difficult situation by both players. No wonder he 'rushed' his attempted clearance.

[Rossi the Robin]

Form isn’t good but we are competing and performing better than last season

should have stuffed Sunderland and beaten Leeds, gave Preston a good game after 5-0 last year

Completely different levels compared to last season 

[ChippenhamRed]

37 minutes ago, Spike said:

Two bad runs of form in two of LJ's full seasons in managing us and both in the second half of the season, for me this screams out tiredness/ lack of depth in the squad to rest those who need it. The thing that worries me the most is a lot of our fans still look at the positives and refuse to accept that both of these bad form runs have killed our early season goals. The first season with the run of bad form took us from the top 6 places right down to a relegation battle and now this run has taken us from a fight for automatic promotion to potentially end up mid-table.
I understand wanting to look at the positives but at what point do we stop accepting these awful runs of form as "just a blip" and accept them for what they are, bad/inexperienced management.
Again I'll say it, I don't want Johnson sacked, but someone close to him needs to point out his need for depth, we can't keep relying on players to play 40+ games a season because we don't have the quality to mix things up when it's needed. Not only are we easier to read when we lack variety in our playstyle but with the inability to mix up the starting line without sacrificing quality we're just as easy to manage by the opposition.

I know a lot of people keep saying "we beat United and gave Man City two great games" and you're right to say it BUT there was a big difference between the Manchester clubs and the teams we're losing to, both Manchester clubs attacked us and that played into the hands of our playstyle, the issue comes when you have teams who don't attack us, but rather they play a strong defensive line up and use our inability to break down defensive teams against us. United came all out for us and it allowed us the space to play the football we wanted to and eventually break them down, Man City went full on attack and pinned us back meaning when we did get the ball we had the space going forward to counter them, the Championship teams have seen those games and now cottoned on to how to beat us, sit back, allow us forward with numbers in front of us, we struggle to create without the space to pass into and then they hit us with a counter and they have that space to play into. The fact that LJ hasn't adapted to this is what honestly worries me the most about him, it's making me start to think he only knows how to get a team to play one way and that just isn't good enough to get results consistently once teams figure you out.

I wouldn't say last season's slump was the second half - it was the middle third.  We finished last season strongly.  That doesn't quite tally up with the tiredness theory.  Lack of depth is possibly more of an issue - but then we've had long term injuries to COD, O'Neill, Famara, Pisano, Djuric and Hegeler - in addition to various short term injuries.  All six of those were first team squad regulars.  That many long-term absentees would affect any squad; I see it less as an issue of depth, but more rather an unfortunate accumulation of long term injuries.

[Red-Robbo]

30 minutes ago, phantom said:

I don't want to turn this into an anti LJ thread but there is something VERY wrong that each season his side goes on one of these terrible runs!

Can't be a coincidence now surely?

Is it down to players being trained too hard / playing a certain way and getting injured?

Take out the cup games against PL opponents there and I'd say we were on a run of extreme inconsistency.  

It isn't comparable to last year's collapse or the winless run he had at Oldham.

One thing I think Johnson is fairly criticised for is being far too complacent during the January window.

[NewquayRed]

What is truly amazing is that even with this run of form I still feel that there is a chance we can win 6 or 7 of our remaining 10 games which along with a few draws may be enough for us to finish in 6th. I realise that not a popular opinion but still very possible

[Esmond Million's Bung]

4 minutes ago, spudski said:

Smith and Bryan should have easily dealt with that between them EMB.

In fact imo, Bryan was at fault for the first goal. He goes charging into the right midfielder...it was an amateurish challenge, that was easily brushed aside. Left Mags under pressure again.

I'd love to know whether Fielding also called for that ball...he comes charging out and no way would have made it before the on coming opponent. Left Mags in a difficult situation by both players. No wonder he 'rushed' his attempted clearance.

The pass over the top took out Bryan, and Smith was left totally exposed, it was amateurish tactics/game management given the state of the match and how the game had been going, a good coach would have said 'let's keep it tight for at least 10 to 15 minutes'.

You are correct to point out Bryan's part in their first goal, but for me that mistake was then exacerbated by Fielding who looked half asleep during the first half, ambling off of his line when there was obvious danger, I think Magnússon hesitated expecting Fielding to be in a position to accept a back pass but by the time he realised that Fielding head was elsewhere, he panicked he did what he did, Flint, Baker or Wright would have put it in row Z and then given Fielding a deserved rollicking. It shows up exactly why Magnússon is not good enough at this level he is too casual at the wrong times, he panics and he is lightweight at times.

[Spike]

On 07/03/2018 at 11:47, cidered abroad said:

But we don't have to have an unlikeable manager. There are some who, imo, are a lot more streetwise than LJ but are also not in the nasty league like the Warnocks. Some who would have probably had us all but promoted by now if they had the resources available that we have. 

Yeah but why do our fans think these managers are interested? Surely if they're such great managers they'll have better options too. 

I'll never understand the logic that just because a manager is approached they'd be interested. I bet there are so many easier jobs out there with bigger budgets, I honestly don't think we're the big pull so many think we are..

[Spike]

On 07/03/2018 at 12:10, ChippenhamRed said:

I wouldn't say last season's slump was the second half - it was the middle third.  We finished last season strongly.  That doesn't quite tally up with the tiredness theory.  Lack of depth is possibly more of an issue - but then we've had long term injuries to COD, O'Neill, Famara, Pisano, Djuric and Hegeler - in addition to various short term injuries.  All six of those were first team squad regulars.  That many long-term absentees would affect any squad; I see it less as an issue of depth, but more rather an unfortunate accumulation of long term injuries.

So you have to ask yourself, why do we have so many injuries? I'd dare to say it's the style of football we choose to play, it's massively demanding and that's why you generally see it used by bigger clubs, because they have the depth to do it without it resulting in so many injuries because they can switch players to allow them to rest. 

It's all good and well saying we'd be fine if we never had the injuries but by that same logic you can say we could be in the Prem of the season ended in December... it's correct but also irrelevant. We have had those injuries and we had a window to address them, we didn't and now we've paid for it and it's not the first time it's happened. 

[GrahamC]

On 07/03/2018 at 00:07, Harry said:

Burton, Ipswich & Barnsley are the next 3.  If we harbor any hopes of playoffs then 9 points is needed from these (7 at minimum).  Given the run of games to the end of the season thereafter, we could end up with only 1 or 2 more wins.

BIG 3 games.

Agree, but after no away wins since December back to back ones would be a real surprise.

I think we need seven points from the next three, both to boost confidence & keep people believing we are still in contention for top six.

For me the Sunderland & Bolton games disappointed me most, 3 more points from those two and we’d still be in the top six.

We have missed Pisano & O’Dowda but I still cannot fathom why we let Vyner go on loan and did not bring someone in.

You could question the keeper but our first choice starting line up looks pretty strong to me, beyond that though we have only about 3 proven back up players and one of those (Djuric) has a poor availability record..

[Bazooka Joe]

On 07/03/2018 at 06:59, CotswoldRed said:

What grates a bit is the hype. We believed it a bit too much and haven't been the same since December. 

When Pep told us (I paraphrase)  "see you in the Prem" we assumed it was going to happen. 

I'm nothing like as dismayed as last year. Mainly because we've not been at risk of relegation,  partly because of the enjoyable cup run, but also because I've never felt we were as good as the common belief suggested. 

While we still have a chance of promotion I've thought from day one we are a mid-table side and that's where we are likely to end up. 

An improvement on last year, but at considerable financial cost.

 

Clearly, we misunderstood what he said.

 

 

[Natchfever]

1 hour ago, Spike said:

So you have to ask yourself, why do we have so many injuries? I'd dare to say it's the style of football we choose to play, it's massively demanding and that's why you generally see it used by bigger clubs, because they have the depth to do it without it resulting in so many injuries because they can switch players to allow them to rest. 

It's all good and well saying we'd be fine if we never had the injuries but by that same logic you can say we could be in the Prem of the season ended in December... it's correct but also irrelevant. We have had those injuries and we had a window to address them, we didn't and now we've paid for it and it's not the first time it's happened. 

This.

I commend LJ for the style he's instilling but you need the personnel in terms of quality and numbers and that's why I don't buy into this "one for the future" stuff where (for us) a fair bit of money has changed hands and we ship them out on loan leaving a pretty thin squad.Many of those injured couldn't play the pressing game anyway. I don't know if we have a budget or actually really give a shit about FFP but unless we have good cover all over the pitch then we will be left bare.

[ChippenhamRed]

2 hours ago, Spike said:

So you have to ask yourself, why do we have so many injuries? I'd dare to say it's the style of football we choose to play, it's massively demanding and that's why you generally see it used by bigger clubs, because they have the depth to do it without it resulting in so many injuries because they can switch players to allow them to rest. 

It's all good and well saying we'd be fine if we never had the injuries but by that same logic you can say we could be in the Prem of the season ended in December... it's correct but also irrelevant. We have had those injuries and we had a window to address them, we didn't and now we've paid for it and it's not the first time it's happened. 

I wouldn’t say the injuries have anything to do with the style of play. Many of them happened early in the season before fatigue would have been an issue. Pisano was out after only a few games. Famara’s injury for example was a very awkward landing that had nothing to do with the style of football. I’d say first and foremost it was simply bad luck.

Actually, we were continuing to win games despite numerous injuries up to around Christmas time. That suggests that we did have the depth of squad to keep winning despite absentees. 

What’s harder to explain is that a number of players have now returned - which we expected to boost our form - and yet we are still not winning like we were. That perhaps suggests our high intensity game has grown increasingly difficult to maintain to the required standard as the season has gone on. So, the style might be to blame for the decline in form, but not the injuries, in my view.

[Spike]

On 08/03/2018 at 19:04, ChippenhamRed said:

I wouldn’t say the injuries have anything to do with the style of play. Many of them happened early in the season before fatigue would have been an issue. Pisano was out after only a few games. Famara’s injury for example was a very awkward landing that had nothing to do with the style of football. I’d say first and foremost it was simply bad luck.

Actually, we were continuing to win games despite numerous injuries up to around Christmas time. That suggests that we did have the depth of squad to keep winning despite absentees. 

What’s harder to explain is that a number of players have now returned - which we expected to boost our form - and yet we are still not winning like we were. That perhaps suggests our high intensity game has grown increasingly difficult to maintain to the required standard as the season has gone on. So, the style might be to blame for the decline in form, but not the injuries, in my view.

It's not just about fatigue, we played a high tempo, high-pressure style, if you're chasing people down a lot and generally moving a lot with sudden starts and stops that does damages, it's especially hard on the hamstrings (Pisano). 
Yes we were winning games up until X-mas but up until x-mas we were also playing a lot faster and we were relatively undiscovered on how to approach us. It's no secret that once we started losing the odd game managers will have watched those games, looked to see how we were broken down, that's any good managers bread and butter. Since we lost a few it's shown where our weakness is, we can't attack teams that don't attack us because we can't break them down. Ever since we got a few loses we've been approached in a totally different manner, mainly putting players behind the ball and not pushing up until we lose possession, then pushing us back either with a quick counter or slow build up but ensuring players stay behind the ball encase we win it back.
I'm not a professional manager and I can see this, I've also seen a few pundits making the same assessment and they're right.

In terms of depth in the squad... rubbish!
LB - Bryan or Mags, Bryan is better in midfield and Mags is a liability.
RB- Pisano, if Pisano is out our 3rd choice CB becomes a right back...
CB's - Flint and Baker, Wright and Mags back up... only if Mags is playing LB we don't have Mags.... and if Pisano is out we don't have Wright

The bottom line is that we got VERY lucky with the injuries we did have and when we had them but when it comes to the defense we don't have depth in quality at all, just a solid starting back 4 if we play our LM as an LB and have no injuries.

The midfield and attack are a lot better with the midfield having the better depth in quality between the two but if either Fammy or Reid are out our attacking line takes an insane hit as Diony, Woodrow, Taylor, Engvall and even to a degree Duric are just not good enough.

Realistically we should sell 4 strikers and buy a starting quality LB as well as a competitive RB at the very least. Mags should be shown the door and a hungry CB should be brought in to nip at Baker and Flints heels all whilst Bailey is used as rotation/back up for when he is needed. On top of that a young, hungry striker with raw ability should be added once those strikers are offloaded. If we did that I'd agree we had enough depth and quality to push through the injuries/suspensions, but suggesting that we have enough depth/quality now seems ludicrous to me.

With regards to the style, well, I've said it for so long, LJ isn't diverse enough as a manager to have a backup plan but it's sure as hell something he needs to develop! We're so easy to read at this point in the season, at the beginning, not so much but by this point I know exactly how I'd approach us as a manager of another club and I'd be very confident doing it too. Back 4, two deep mids, sit back, wait for us to get frustrated about not being able to make ground and give up the ball, then attack with players behind the ball to prevent a counter that we crave so much. Any team who gets a lead against us with that set up will be laughing.

 

[Kid in the Riot]

Only 3 defeats in our last 8  

 

[Kibs]

16 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Only 3 defeats in our last 8  

 

3 defeats in our last 10 league games isn’t it?? Considering 2 of those were Preston and Cardiff away, I don’t feel quite so bad now!!!