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Loderingo

By Loderingo
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Loderingo

Loderingo

Posted
Posted

I thought it would be a good time to review the state of play in the Championship.

The relegation battle

Normally the bar for safety is 50 points but it's going to be nowhere near that high this season.  Blackburn who went down with 51 last year can feel seriously aggrieved as there are 8 teams this season with a lower points per game total so far than they got last time around.  Based on current form the bar is likely to be the early 40s and could even be as low as 40.  Based on that Forest and above are already safe with QPR nearly there.  Even Wednesday despite being awful against us, could probably stay up with a win and a couple of draws.  After that it could be the games where they play each other that make the difference.

Automatic

Wolves have had a little dip lately but are still almost home and hosed.  Even a fairly average finish of 4W, WD, 3L should see them over the line.  Villa would probably need to beat them at Villa Park to have a chance of reeling them in.  It looks like a 3-way battle for second spot between Cardiff, Villa and Fulham. Cardiff still have to go to Villa and also host Wolves.  Personally I would prefer Cardiff to go up as I would least like to face them in the playoffs.

The playoff battle

Generally the bar for the playoffs is 75 points but this can vary a lot per season.  If we pro rata Boro's points this would give 74.  As there are a lot of teams in contention this year I think it will be at least 75 and maybe up to 77 or 78.  If we set the bar at 75 points then we can already rule out Forest and below mathematically.  Ipswich, Leeds and Norwich could get there with automatic promotion form but I don't think any of these teams are good enough or consistent enough to do it.  Millwall are on a good run but with a final 4 games of Sheff U, Fulham, Boro, Villa I think they've left it too late.  That leaves 6 teams for 2 places:  Derby, Boro, Us, Preston, Sheff U and Brentford (just about).

Looking at our own chances, if the bar is 75 then we would need another 18 points - say 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.  If it's a bit higher then we could need 6 wins. Our form has not been that great but we do have an easier run in on paper than some of the others, having already played all of the top 5.   They key for me is that we are playing 4 of the relegation contenders.  Now they will all be scrapping for points but on paper they are all worse than a pretty abysmal Wednesday team.  I think we need 10 or 12 points from those 4 games if we are to have a chance.  Then we've got Brentford and Ipswich at home - we need to win at least one of these. We then try and win one of our remaining 3 away games.  We've done well at Boro and Forest in recent years and have to hope this continues. There's got to be a good chance it all comes down to the last match against Sheff U!  I think we can make the playoffs but not sure we'd actually win them.

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Major Isewater

Major Isewater

Posted
Posted

I think most of us thought that the match v Sheff Utd on the last day of the season would be significant when the fixture list came out.

A great many , no doubt , thinking it would concern the bottom of the table and not the top ! 

If we get our act together and make the play offs we have a very good chance of going up . 

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The Gasbuster

The Gasbuster

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Loderingo said:

I thought it would be a good time to review the state of play in the Championship.

The relegation battle

Normally the bar for safety is 50 points but it's going to be nowhere near that high this season.  Blackburn who went down with 51 last year can feel seriously aggrieved as there are 8 teams this season with a lower points per game total so far than they got last time around.  Based on current form the bar is likely to be the early 40s and could even be as low as 40.  Based on that Forest and above are already safe with QPR nearly there.  Even Wednesday despite being awful against us, could probably stay up with a win and a couple of draws.  After that it could be the games where they play each other that make the difference.

Automatic

Wolves have had a little dip lately but are still almost home and hosed.  Even a fairly average finish of 4W, WD, 3L should see them over the line.  Villa would probably need to beat them at Villa Park to have a chance of reeling them in.  It looks like a 3-way battle for second spot between Cardiff, Villa and Fulham. Cardiff still have to go to Villa and also host Wolves.  Personally I would prefer Cardiff to go up as I would least like to face them in the playoffs.

The playoff battle

Generally the bar for the playoffs is 75 points but this can vary a lot per season.  If we pro rata Boro's points this would give 74.  As there are a lot of teams in contention this year I think it will be at least 75 and maybe up to 77 or 78.  If we set the bar at 75 points then we can already rule out Forest and below mathematically.  Ipswich, Leeds and Norwich could get there with automatic promotion form but I don't think any of these teams are good enough or consistent enough to do it.  Millwall are on a good run but with a final 4 games of Sheff U, Fulham, Boro, Villa I think they've left it too late.  That leaves 6 teams for 2 places:  Derby, Boro, Us, Preston, Sheff U and Brentford (just about).

Looking at our own chances, if the bar is 75 then we would need another 18 points - say 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.  If it's a bit higher then we could need 6 wins. Our form has not been that great but we do have an easier run in on paper than some of the others, having already played all of the top 5.   They key for me is that we are playing 4 of the relegation contenders.  Now they will all be scrapping for points but on paper they are all worse than a pretty abysmal Wednesday team.  I think we need 10 or 12 points from those 4 games if we are to have a chance.  Then we've got Brentford and Ipswich at home - we need to win at least one of these. We then try and win one of our remaining 3 away games.  We've done well at Boro and Forest in recent years and have to hope this continues. There's got to be a good chance it all comes down to the last match against Sheff U!  I think we can make the playoffs but not sure we'd actually win them.

NO, NO, NO !!!

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fatchers

fatchers

Posted
Posted

As much as I'd like to see us reach the play offs,I think we will fall short. The lads have done well to stay in the top six for so long. Our results of late suggest we will not be hitting promotion form. If we do fail to reach the pray offs it will still have been a very good season. The team are developing nicely and play some very good football at times.

 

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The Fat Controller

The Fat Controller

Posted
Posted

Experimental 361 create a chart shown on the following page that shows rough probabilities on where teams will finish. According to them we are likely to finish in the top half with a decent chance of playoffs. It's the latest one I can find but its a couple of weeks out of date. 

https://experimental361.com/2018/02/25/e-ratings-update-championship-25-feb-2018/

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tinman85

tinman85

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, fatchers said:

As much as I'd like to see us reach the play offs,I think we will fall short. The lads have done well to stay in the top six for so long. Our results of late suggest we will not be hitting promotion form. If we do fail to reach the pray offs it will still have been a very good season. The team are developing nicely and play some very good football at times.

 

At AG I fancy us against any of the top six but I worry about us away from home. We look fragile and always likely to concede. 

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Williams' Penalty

Williams' Penalty

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, tinman85 said:

At AG I fancy us against any of the top six but I worry about us away from home. We look fragile and always likely to concede. 

Do agree with this... was interesting Johnson's comments about our away support after Preston. I think bringing big numbers to away games will be key in the coming weeks.

Time for the club to lay on free coach travel!!!

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ChippenhamRed

ChippenhamRed

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

OP . You are living in a parallel society called "Dream World". 

Why do you take such joy in dismissing anyone who dares to suggest anything other than definite failure?

The OP said “I think we can make the playoffs but not sure we'd actually win them.”. It’s just an opinion. There’s no arrogant certainty to the prediction. You could learn something there.

For the last two seasons we have finished strongly when no one expected us to. Around this time last year most had us relegated. No one knows for certain how the next 10 games will pan out, and while we remain very much in the play off picture we can at least dare to hope.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

It’s gonna be tough. 

Lets say we win 5 of the easiest (on paper) remaining games. So that’s 3 points vs Burton, Birmingham, Hull, Barnsley & Ipswich. 

That puts us on 72 points. 

We’d still need at least 5 points in my reckoning from the other 5 games. 

Somehow we’d need 5 from Boro away, Millwall away, Forest away, Brentford home, Sheff Utd home. 

We might get a point at each of Millwall and Forest which means we’d have to win one of the tough home fixtures Brentford or Sheff U. 

Gonna be an interesting run-in, but it’s absolutely imperative we get 7-9 points in the next 3. 

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jimmyb

jimmyb

Posted
Posted

The simple equation, as it always is in football, is win your home games. 

We have to win all 5 of those games. That gives us 72 and takes points off Brentford and Sheffield United. 

Win one of Burton or Barnsley gives us 75. Pick a couple of points up on the road and we’re in. 

Simples!*

*just to make it clear I know it isn’t simple. 

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BigTone

BigTone

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Loderingo said:

I thought it would be a good time to review the state of play in the Championship.

The relegation battle

Normally the bar for safety is 50 points but it's going to be nowhere near that high this season.  Blackburn who went down with 51 last year can feel seriously aggrieved as there are 8 teams this season with a lower points per game total so far than they got last time around.  Based on current form the bar is likely to be the early 40s and could even be as low as 40.  Based on that Forest and above are already safe with QPR nearly there.  Even Wednesday despite being awful against us, could probably stay up with a win and a couple of draws.  After that it could be the games where they play each other that make the difference.

Automatic

Wolves have had a little dip lately but are still almost home and hosed.  Even a fairly average finish of 4W, WD, 3L should see them over the line.  Villa would probably need to beat them at Villa Park to have a chance of reeling them in.  It looks like a 3-way battle for second spot between Cardiff, Villa and Fulham. Cardiff still have to go to Villa and also host Wolves.  Personally I would prefer Cardiff to go up as I would least like to face them in the playoffs.

The playoff battle

Generally the bar for the playoffs is 75 points but this can vary a lot per season.  If we pro rata Boro's points this would give 74.  As there are a lot of teams in contention this year I think it will be at least 75 and maybe up to 77 or 78.  If we set the bar at 75 points then we can already rule out Forest and below mathematically.  Ipswich, Leeds and Norwich could get there with automatic promotion form but I don't think any of these teams are good enough or consistent enough to do it.  Millwall are on a good run but with a final 4 games of Sheff U, Fulham, Boro, Villa I think they've left it too late.  That leaves 6 teams for 2 places:  Derby, Boro, Us, Preston, Sheff U and Brentford (just about).

Looking at our own chances, if the bar is 75 then we would need another 18 points - say 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.  If it's a bit higher then we could need 6 wins. Our form has not been that great but we do have an easier run in on paper than some of the others, having already played all of the top 5.   They key for me is that we are playing 4 of the relegation contenders.  Now they will all be scrapping for points but on paper they are all worse than a pretty abysmal Wednesday team.  I think we need 10 or 12 points from those 4 games if we are to have a chance.  Then we've got Brentford and Ipswich at home - we need to win at least one of these. We then try and win one of our remaining 3 away games.  We've done well at Boro and Forest in recent years and have to hope this continues. There's got to be a good chance it all comes down to the last match against Sheff U!  I think we can make the playoffs but not sure we'd actually win them.

Beware of Millwall sneaking up

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1960maaan

1960maaan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bryans Left Peg said:

Interesting you've got Sheff Utd getting 27 points from 30 with games against City, Preston, Boro, Cardiff, Brentford and Ipswich to come. 

(Noticed I've also got Wolves to get 29 from 32)

Dispise Sheff U and not much fonder of Wolves, my dislike probably ruled my head making me think they'd win just to annoy me.

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Davefevs

Davefevs

Posted
Posted

I think we will finish 6th or 7th....sitting here today.  That will change game by game no doubt!

I really hope Baker is fit Saturday.

Going to Burton with a back 4 of:

Pisano, Wright, Baker, Magnússon or Kelly looks better than say, 

Pisano, Wright, Magnússon, Kelly.

I also might be in favour of bringing Steele back in.

 

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Bryans Left Peg

Bryans Left Peg

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I think we will finish 6th or 7th....sitting here today.  That will change game by game no doubt!

I really hope Baker is fit Saturday.

Going to Burton with a back 4 of:

Pisano, Wright, Baker, Magnússon or Kelly looks better than say, 

Pisano, Wright, Magnússon, Kelly.

I also might be in favour of bringing Steele back in.

 

Can I ask why you'd drop Frankie?

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Rocking Red Cyril

Rocking Red Cyril

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, fatchers said:

As much as I'd like to see us reach the play offs,I think we will fall short. The lads have done well to stay in the top six for so long. Our results of late suggest we will not be hitting promotion form. If we do fail to reach the pray offs it will still have been a very good season. The team are developing nicely and play some very good football at times.

 

Much sense there

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reddogkev

reddogkev

Posted
Posted

This is not intended to sound defeatist, but I have no expectation of City finishing in the top 6.  Form is far too inconsistent and, quite simply, we are not winning anywhere near enough games to do the job.

The squad is good enough to put this right, but the evidence suggests our form will not return to the required standard.

Can't wait to be proven wrong, though!

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