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Why have we stopped winning games?


reddogkev

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2 league wins in 2018.  Shocking considering how good we were in 2017.

Are the players guilty of chucking this season away?  Who has stolen their confidence and the ability they demonstrated in the League Cup games?

There's still time to put everything right, we just need to get 2 wins together.  Seems impossible at the moment, but surely Ipswich and Barnsley offer such a chance.

If we carry on winning at the rate of 1 in 6, we are going to finish about 13th!

COME ON CITY, SORT IT BLOODY OUT!

 

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I wonder how much of it is psychological. I had a genuine belief that we were almost unstoppable in October/November. We were superb, I wonder if perhaps teams no longer fear us and our style of play.

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7 minutes ago, ZiderEyed said:

I wonder how much of it is psychological. I had a genuine belief that we were almost unstoppable in October/November. We were superb, I wonder if perhaps teams no longer fear us and our style of play.

yeah, it must be; you hear sometimes about clubs bringing in sports psychologists to help, I read that Wigan have done it with relative success for certain games in their past.  Perhaps we should do the same, or failing that just get the whole team to watch the League Cup games again from start to finish and restore their belief.  The talent is there to finish in the top 6, but you wouldn't think it at the moment. 

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2 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

yeah, it must be; you hear sometimes about clubs bringing in sports psychologists to help, I read that Wigan have done it with relative success for certain games in their past.  Perhaps we should do the same, or failing that just get the whole team to watch the League Cup games again from start to finish and restore their belief.  

Bristol City use psychologists ... It is standard across clubs.

One of the bedrocks is having confidence in what you are doing. If they players know they are well prepared, trust the tactics, the philosophy, buy into it ... It is easier to use this as the foundation to build positive mind sets further. 

Trust/great preparation = Challenge state ... Layman's terms up for it = More likely to perform positively.

If the team is now using differing team selection tactics watching those games can have an altogether different affect. The whys of "we should stick to that", "why are we playing like this?" may create what are known as threat states. Threat states affect performance = Less likely to perform positively.

 

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4 minutes ago, Cheesleysmate said:

Mentally not strong enough

Physically not strong enough 

Unfortunate with injuries to key players

Lack of strength in depth

Poor January transfer window activity

No real leadership on the pitch

Pretty much this.

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38 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

2 league wins in 2018.  Shocking considering how good we were in 2017.

Are the players guilty of chucking this season away?  Who has stolen their confidence and the ability they demonstrated in the League Cup games?

There's still time to put everything right, we just need to get 2 wins together.  Seems impossible at the moment, but surely Ipswich and Barnsley offer such a chance.

If we carry on winning at the rate of 1 in 6, we are going to finish about 13th!

COME ON CITY, SORT IT BLOODY OUT!

 

Hardly shocking in the context of the number of games we played up until Christmas and our appalling injury list.  Still, I'm sure everyone on OTIB would have taken three points off the play-offs with nine to play when the season started.  Whatever happens, it's been a great season and I for one still consider that the play-offs would be a bonus if we got into them (and yes, I'm one of those who think it is too early for us to go up in any case).  Anything in the top ten represents a good outcome for me. 

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10 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

Bristol City use psychologists ... It is standard across clubs.

One of the bedrocks is having confidence in what you are doing. If they players know they are well prepared, trust the tactics, the philosophy, buy into it ... It is easier to use this as the foundation to build positive mind sets further. 

Trust/great preparation = Challenge state ... Layman's terms up for it = More likely to perform positively.

If the team is now using differing team selection tactics watching those games can have an altogether different affect. The whys of "we should stick to that", "why are we playing like this?" may create what are known as threat states. Threat states affect performance = Less likely to perform positively.

 

Interesting response, where have you learned about those different mental states, are you a psychologist?  Are the players currently within the threat state you refer to?

Personally, I don't feel selections / tactics have changed to the degree that this state of mind should have been reached. 

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Our quality of shots has become lower too.

By which I mean quality of shots, a ratio of on target- the more shots on target, the more likely to score. (Hitting the woodwork, converting a penalty and own goals do not count towards this).

Last 12 games- let's use Villa away to now as the period? 39 shots on target- NOWHERE near good enough for a playoff chasing, let alone a top 2 challenging, side. 11 goals from these- tells a story.

Prior 12 games? Let's say up to and including Wolves at home because we still played well in that.

53 Shots on Target, 19 goals. 

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3 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Hardly shocking in the context of the number of games we played up until Christmas and our appalling injury list.  Still, I'm sure everyone on OTIB would have taken three points off the play-offs with nine to play when the season started.  Whatever happens, it's been a great season and I for one still consider that the play-offs would be a bonus if we got into them (and yes, I'm one of those who think it is too early for us to go up in any case).  Anything in the top ten represents a good outcome for me. 

Nope,  the 2018 league form is definitely shocking, however positive our position is compared to last year.

I understand your points, but the simple fact remains we have been good enough for a top 6 spot for over half of this season, and have now lost this level of play.

We may not be in this position again next season, or the year after that, so it is bitterly disappointing.

 

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2 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Interesting response, where have you learned about those different mental states, are you a psychologist?  Are the players currently within the threat state you refer to?

Personally, I don't feel selections / tactics have changed to the degree that this state of mind should have been reached. 

I have psychology qualifications relating to sport. 

Bristol City tactics are altering match to match. The team are being asked to play differently. My view is that there was little wrong with how City played and that it did not need much alteration. The tactics used at Cardiff for instance were a significant leap away from the short passing witnessed earlier in the season. 

If players do not trust what they are doing and how they are preparing for it, they have to be exceptional individuals for it to have no impact on them at all. Break it down. Performance is driven by physical effort and mental. Mental drives the physical and the mere sight of player A coming on/being picked can lead to a player thinking "**** not him and that" and doubt affecting mental effort which impacts the physical. Mental drives "if I give it to him he will only ******* lose it again", so they tactically doubt what they are doing. 

Altering a goal kick can alter states of mind, Frankie's kicks off the pitch alter the crowds mind, it will almost certainly have some reaction in players. 

I would say that some of the players will be experiencing doubt. Doubt affects performance. Doubt is the side of threat v challenge. 

 

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Some of the players seem to have taken their foot off the gas a bit. Not closing down as much and being a bir less physical.

Truth is that I think the other teams have worked us out.

We were playing our best football with a false no. 9. Maybe that needs trying again - we can always bring on a winger and a front man latwr if its not working.

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26 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Nope,  the 2018 league form is definitely shocking, however positive our position is compared to last year.

I understand your points, but the simple fact remains we have been good enough for a top 6 spot for over half of this season, and have now lost this level of play.

We may not be in this position again next season, or the year after that, so it is bitterly disappointing.

 

But you can't write off the impact of the cup run or the injuries.  Better teams than us have been impacted in the past, and Alan Walsh recently commented on the similar effects on the run to the semi-finals in 1988/89.

You're right that we might not be in this position, but that's football.  My belief is that we are building in the right direction, and that we will be stronger next season.  I don't think we would have been ready for the Premier league next season, and the aim is not just to get to the Premier league, but to stay there.  We didn't expect promotion this season: our first half season form was a surprise and a delight, but I suspect many of us thought it was unsustainable for the whole season, especially given our injuries.  Buying big in January would have been a massive gamble, and could have completely destablised the squad, which needs to stay together.  As it is, I'm not sure I can criticise the signings we made - Walsh was one for the future and looks very promising to me; Kent seemed a great signing, and we all remember what he looked like playing against us last season; Diony had the pedigree, but appears to be suffering from a shocking loss of confidence.  Baker's indiscpline/injuries haven't helped either.

Still, it's only a game, isn't it? :fear:

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31 minutes ago, Cowshed said:

I have psychology qualifications relating to sport. 

Bristol City tactics are altering match to match. The team are being asked to play differently. My view is that there was little wrong with how City played and that it did not need much alteration. The tactics used at Cardiff for instance were a significant leap away from the short passing witnessed earlier in the season. 

If players do not trust what they are doing and how they are preparing for it, they have to be exceptional individuals for it to have no impact on them at all. Break it down. Performance is driven by physical effort and mental. Mental drives the physical and the mere sight of player A coming on/being picked can lead to a player thinking "**** not him and that" and doubt affecting mental effort which impacts the physical. Mental drives "if I give it to him he will only ******* lose it again", so they tactically doubt what they are doing. 

Altering a goal kick can alter states of mind, Frankie's kicks off the pitch alter the crowds mind, it will almost certainly have some reaction in players. 

I would say that some of the players will be experiencing doubt. Doubt affects performance. Doubt is the side of threat v challenge. 

 

Flint has responded superbly to the threat v challenge dilemna. Did Johnson intentionally motivate him with this last August/September, or was it a happy accident?

We need more like Flint. 

 

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1 hour ago, Cheesleysmate said:

Mentally not strong enough

Physically not strong enough 

Unfortunate with injuries to key players

Lack of strength in depth

Poor January transfer window activity

No real leadership on the pitch

Yeah, pretty much agree with this. The only one I don't agree with is the Jan transfer window (and we've debated that elsewhere!). The fact that we were performing so well before that window seems to suggest that's not the problem?

But I think there's a lot of connections in the rest. Injuries has been a real problem, and it's made a big contribution to the physical side of our game and to our strength in depth. With a fully fit squad we could have an impressive bench. As you've said those injuries have also been in key positions, none more so that losing Djuric and Taylor, who were giving us the 'plan B' and the extra physical strength in the final 20 minutes of games earlier in the season. We've just been running out of steam with no plan B recently.

Also agree about the leadership on the pitch, been a problem at City for years now. In many ways I'd like to see Wright and Baker stay fit and get themselves embedded as our central defensive partnership: I think that could bring some leadership, at least in the sense off inspiring a sense of calm and confidence throughout the team. Flint gets a few goals and is a talisman for the fans, but for me he's not a great leader. Add in a new keeper (for me, our no 1 transfer priority in the summer) and it could look even better! 

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1 hour ago, Cowshed said:

Bristol City use psychologists ... It is standard across clubs.

One of the bedrocks is having confidence in what you are doing. If they players know they are well prepared, trust the tactics, the philosophy, buy into it ... It is easier to use this as the foundation to build positive mind sets further. 

Trust/great preparation = Challenge state ... Layman's terms up for it = More likely to perform positively.

If the team is now using differing team selection tactics watching those games can have an altogether different affect. The whys of "we should stick to that", "why are we playing like this?" may create what are known as threat states. Threat states affect performance = Less likely to perform positively.

 

There are group dynamics to think about, too (like 12 months ago), and more changes, since January. Three new faces. Kent doing his own thing; is Diony getting on a sub through merit; he can't trap a bag of cement; how much is he on??etc etc. What do the rest of the "group" make of the changes?

All things we can never know. But it's fun to guess/wildly speculate/bark up the wrong tree about for a bit.

 

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I think we've deserted our style of play. Perhaps this is a result of Diedhiou coming back in, we don't seem to be moving the ball round quite as quick .The games vs Cardiff & Burton were two of the worst I've seen for ages. It also seems as if when Smith has a poor game, we rarely get a result.

Quite a few players are lacking match practice, I believe we've arranged a behind closed doors friendly with Cheltenham tomorrow to help players get some game time in. 

 

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1 hour ago, ZiderEyed said:

I wonder how much of it is psychological. I had a genuine belief that we were almost unstoppable in October/November. We were superb, I wonder if perhaps teams no longer fear us and our style of play.

I think your right. Confidence is a massive thing in football. I thought the same in October and November. I did have a horrible feeling this would happen though.. that free flowing almost perfect football we were playing in 2017 felt like it couldn’t last for ever.. we haven’t really had a plan B either have we.

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Maybe at the start of the season, our high press, high energy style caught a few teams out and weren't prepared for that style of game; hence we accumulated a lot of points early in the season.

Now teams know what to expect and set up to counter the high press energy game, so LJ is trying to tweak our style of play again, in reaction to the opposition. Maybe now that we are playing the teams for the second time in the back half of the season, we are not picking up the points as easy.

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I've been thinking about when we have been really good recently - S Weds, Fulham even Reading was when our midfield had time to execute the quick passing that creates spaces for Bobby and Fam.

I think we have either been bullied in midfield or been unable to play to our strengths - Cardiff, Bolton, Burton all prevented us playing to our strength. It's the lack of a plan B that all players trust in my opinion is the cause.

This is perhaps why LJ blames himself for not changing things ie against Sunderland because the players can't do it themselves. Then we bring on unfamiliar players, with new tactics and disrupt the whole shape and strategy causing individual errors - which is what has really cost us (at both ends).

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30 minutes ago, bris red said:

I think your right. Confidence is a massive thing in football. I thought the same in October and November. I did have a horrible feeling this would happen though.. that free flowing almost perfect football we were playing in 2017 felt like it couldn’t last for ever.. we haven’t really had a plan B either have we.

I always think back to how good we were when we dicked Derby early on in the season. That high pressing, slick, incisive short passing between the lines that gave the likes of Colin Murrray raging hard ons has been abandoned in certain games.

I think any manager worth his salt will have realised that we're not good against compact, combative units, and we struggle to break down teams that play in that way (partly due to some weird abandonment of using the width of the pitch). We've shown off our soft, moist, flabby underbelly, and I wouldn't be afraid of playing us at this point.

I wouldn't mind if there was a plan B, but it seems like the idea was stick two big lumps up top, as much creativity in midfield as possible, hoof it and hope. Nothing wrong with that, but other than Djuric, we haven't really got the players for it. Back to square pegs and round holes.

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