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Right, play offs, let's bloody do this


reddogkev

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We can do this- we can.

Players returning from injury at just the right time, toughed it out for a win v an obdurate Ipswich in terrible conditions- missing Flint, Baker, Bryan and O'Dowda. We can- particularly with Derby's run in.

Not suggesting it will be easy, far from it- the battle for 5th and 6th could go down to the last day, but it's totally viable.

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On 18/03/2018 at 08:46, mozo said:

I'm talking here about a crucial referee decision in one of those six pointers, and a scuffed winner here or there, maybe a benevolent deflection or three.  

Shame we can't get Kaggsy back from MK Dons then - scuffed shots were his stock in trade!

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This international week has come at a good time for us. It's a chance for players to rest those niggling injuries. Also, it presses pause on the momentum of teams like Millwall and Boro.

Hit the reset button on Easter Weekend and the real run-in begins.

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Interesting to look at the remaining fixtures of Derby, Middlesbrough, CIty, Preston, Sheff Utd and Millwall

Of those, four teams each still have to play five games against teams presently in the top 9.  In Derby's case, they have to play all the top three.

Preston have the easiest run-in on paper, with only Derby at home and Sheffield Utd away.  We are next best with Milwall and Middlesbrough away and Sheff Utd at home on the final day of the season.

The key thing is that there are going to be a lot of points dropped by the teams around us because of the number of games our competitors still have to play against each other.  Middlesbrough have four consecutive matches against other teams in the 'group of six'.

I think 78 points might be enough for the play-offs, so I agree with those who suggest we might need six wins from our last eight.

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Interesting to look at the remaining fixtures of Derby, Middlesbrough, CIty, Preston, Sheff Utd and Millwall

Of those, four teams each still have to play five games against teams presently in the top 9.  In Derby's case, they have to play all the top three.

Preston have the easiest run-in on paper, with only Derby at home and Sheffield Utd away.  We are next best with Milwall and Middlesbrough away and Sheff Utd at home on the final day of the season.

The key thing is that there are going to be a lot of points dropped by the teams around us because of the number of games our competitors still have to play against each other.  Middlesbrough have four consecutive matches against other teams in the 'group of six'.

I think 78 points might be enough for the play-offs, so I agree with those who suggest we might need six wins from our last eight.

 

 

Might well be less than 78, given games like that can easily end in draws.

The run-ins (Opponents in the top six and other teams chasing to be bolded- the potential spoilers or outsiders, to be italicised!

Derby- P37 Pts 62:

  • Sunderland (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Bolton (H)
  • Wolves (A)
  • Burton (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)
  • Aston Villa (A)
  • Barnsley (H)

Plus a match at home to Cardiff. Very tough run-in.

Middlesbrough- P38 Pts 62:

  • Wolves (H)
  • Burton (A)
  • Nottm Forest (H)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Bristol City (H)
  • Derby (A)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Ipswich (A)

That's a pretty horrible run-in too, isn't it! Even the 3 likely wins- Ipswich and Burton away, and Forest at home, are not necessarily gimmes- could easily see them slipping up with a draw at Ipswich for example.

Preston- P38 Pts 60:

  • Sheff Wed (A)
  • Derby (H)
  • Reading (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • QPR (A)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Burton (H)

That is actually not a bad run-in at all. Norwich at home and Leeds at home and QPR away of course are all potential games in which points can be dropped.

Sheff Utd- P38 Pts 60:

  • Brentford (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Barnsley (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Birmingham (A)
  • Preston (H)
  • Bristol City (A)

One word- Ouch! Even the 2 away games- to Barnsley and Birmingham- are far from nailed on wins, one a Yorkshire derby and sometimes St Andrews can be hard- plus both fighting for their lives with newish managers. If Sheff Utd make the playoffs, they will absolutely have deserved it! They, like Preston, could run out of steam. Squad size etc.

Millwall- P38 Pts 58:

  • Nottm Forest (H)
  • Ipswich (A)
  • Bristol City (H)
  • Bolton (A)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Fulham (H)
  • Middlesbrough (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)

Pretty horrible run in- particularly the last 4, and you could even say last 7 because Ipswich away is awkward, and Bolton away is suddenly very tricky- as we and Villa found out. Suffice to say, if they make top 6 then it's fully deserved! Could the fact they won the League One playoffs stand them in good stead? Maybe...

Now for the less significant ones but still in with a theoretical chance:

Brentford- P38 Pts 54:

  • Sheff Utd (H)
  • Bristol City (A)
  • Ipswich (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Fulham (A)
  • QPR (H)
  • Barnsley (A)
  • Hull (H)

It's not a great run-in, but it's not wildly difficult either. Brentford would surely be looking at 4 points from their 2 games after Easter...and then 14-16 points from the remaining 6. If they get a bit of momentum they could be pushing hard for the last place IMO.

Ipswich- P38 Pts 52:

  • Birmingham (A)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Brentford (A)
  • Barnsley (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Reading (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)

To be clear, I don't see Ipswich as having much of a chance. However, do I see them as having the potential to take points off Millwall and Boro in particular? Absolutely! Tricky away game...

Norwich- P38 Pts 52:

  • Fulham (H)
  • QPR (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Sunderland (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Sheff Wed (A)

Like their East Anglian neighbours, not much chance- but potential to play spoiler for one or 2! 

Leeds- P38 Pts 50:

  • Bolton (H)
  • Fulham (A)
  • Sunderland (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Aston Villa (A)
  • Barnsley (H)
  • Norwich (A)
  • QPR (H)

No particular chance, but potential to play spoilers for one or 2!

US- P38 Pts 61:

  • Barnsley (A)
  • Brentford (H)
  • Millwall (A)
  • Birmingham (H)
  • Middlesbrough (A)
  • Hull (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Sheff Utd (H)

One of the kinder run-ins I feel. That Sheff Utd game, could make or break it for us.

Villa and Fulham- just because they have not cemented their play off places for certain, though as good as! The two away games at Boro and Millwall will be very difficult though, and Brentford- well we haven't beaten Brentford in a while??

Fulham- P38 Pts69:

  • Norwich (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Sheff Wed (A)
  • Reading (H)
  • Brentford (H)
  • Millwall A)
  • Sunderland (H)
  • Birmingham (A)

I'd say that is trickier than it looks on first glance. Sheff Wed, Reading and Sunderland should be easy wins, but the rest? I still think they will be safely in the playoffs but could they wobble if say they slip up at Norwich...

Aston Villa- P38 Pts69:

  • Hull (A)
  • Reading (H)
  • Norwich (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Ipswich (A)
  • Derby (H)
  • Millwall (A)

I mean, it's a very long shot isn't it, but if Villa don't have it as good as nailed down by Norwich away...that's a very awkward last 6 games! If there is pressure and some sides coming up behind...then it's not that easy!

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5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Might well be less than 78, given games like that can easily end in draws.

The run-ins (Opponents in the top six and other teams chasing to be bolded- the potential spoilers or outsiders, to be italicised!

Derby- P37 Pts 62:

  • Sunderland (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Bolton (H)
  • Wolves (A)
  • Burton (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)
  • Aston Villa (A)
  • Barnsley (H)

Plus a match at home to Cardiff. Very tough run-in.

Middlesbrough- P38 Pts 62:

  • Wolves (H)
  • Burton (A)
  • Nottm Forest (H)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Bristol City (H)
  • Derby (A)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Ipswich (A)

That's a pretty horrible run-in too, isn't it! Even the 3 likely wins- Ipswich and Burton away, and Forest at home, are not necessarily gimmes- could easily see them slipping up with a draw at Ipswich for example.

Preston- P38 Pts 60:

  • Sheff Wed (A)
  • Derby (H)
  • Reading (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • QPR (A)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Burton (H)

That is actually not a bad run-in at all. Norwich at home and Leeds at home and QPR away of course are all potential games in which points can be dropped.

Sheff Utd- P38 Pts 60:

  • Brentford (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Barnsley (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Birmingham (A)
  • Preston (H)
  • Bristol City (A)

One word- Ouch! Even the 2 away games- to Barnsley and Birmingham- are far from nailed on wins, one a Yorkshire derby and sometimes St Andrews can be hard- plus both fighting for their lives with newish managers. If Sheff Utd make the playoffs, they will absolutely have deserved it! They, like Preston, could run out of steam. Squad size etc.

Millwall- P38 Pts 58:

  • Nottm Forest (H)
  • Ipswich (A)
  • Bristol City (H)
  • Bolton (A)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Fulham (H)
  • Middlesbrough (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)

Pretty horrible run in- particularly the last 4, and you could even say last 7 because Ipswich away is awkward, and Bolton away is suddenly very tricky- as we and Villa found out. Suffice to say, if they make top 6 then it's fully deserved! Could the fact they won the League One playoffs stand them in good stead? Maybe...

Now for the less significant ones but still in with a theoretical chance:

Brentford- P38 Pts 54:

  • Sheff Utd (H)
  • Bristol City (A)
  • Ipswich (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Fulham (A)
  • QPR (H)
  • Barnsley (A)
  • Hull (H)

It's not a great run-in, but it's not wildly difficult either. Brentford would surely be looking at 4 points from their 2 games after Easter...and then 14-16 points from the remaining 6. If they get a bit of momentum they could be pushing hard for the last place IMO.

Ipswich- P38 Pts 52:

  • Birmingham (A)
  • Millwall (H)
  • Brentford (A)
  • Barnsley (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Reading (A)
  • Middlesbrough (H)

To be clear, I don't see Ipswich as having much of a chance. However, do I see them as having the potential to take points off Millwall and Boro in particular? Absolutely! Tricky away game...

Norwich- P38 Pts 52:

  • Fulham (H)
  • QPR (A)
  • Aston Villa (H)
  • Sunderland (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Sheff Wed (A)

Like their East Anglian neighbours, not much chance- but potential to play spoiler for one or 2! 

Leeds- P38 Pts 50:

  • Bolton (H)
  • Fulham (A)
  • Sunderland (H)
  • Preston (A)
  • Aston Villa (A)
  • Barnsley (H)
  • Norwich (A)
  • QPR (H)

No particular chance, but potential to play spoilers for one or 2!

US- P38 Pts 61:

  • Barnsley (A)
  • Brentford (H)
  • Millwall (A)
  • Birmingham (H)
  • Middlesbrough (A)
  • Hull (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Sheff Utd (H)

One of the kinder run-ins I feel. That Sheff Utd game, could make or break it for us.

Villa and Fulham- just because they have not cemented their play off places for certain, though as good as! The two away games at Boro and Millwall will be very difficult though, and Brentford- well we haven't beaten Brentford in a while??

Fulham- P38 Pts69:

  • Norwich (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Sheff Wed (A)
  • Reading (H)
  • Brentford (H)
  • Millwall A)
  • Sunderland (H)
  • Birmingham (A)

I'd say that is trickier than it looks on first glance. Sheff Wed, Reading and Sunderland should be easy wins, but the rest? I still think they will be safely in the playoffs but could they wobble if say they slip up at Norwich...

Aston Villa- P38 Pts69:

  • Hull (A)
  • Reading (H)
  • Norwich (A)
  • Cardiff (H)
  • Leeds (H)
  • Ipswich (A)
  • Derby (H)
  • Millwall (A)

I mean, it's a very long shot isn't it, but if Villa don't have it as good as nailed down by Norwich away...that's a very awkward last 6 games! If there is pressure and some sides coming up behind...then it's not that easy!

Millwall v Villa on the last day of the season.

If there is something riding on it for both teams, there will be SCENES afterwards ! :noexp:

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On 17/03/2018 at 21:56, Robbored said:

And you're telling me that even tho I'm not remotely interested in what happened years ago.

 

On 17/03/2018 at 22:54, Robbored said:

Apart from 1976 City don't have a history of any note. I remember it very well. It was only time I ever invaded the pitch...

Read your two posts above....so you ARE interested in what happened years ago....shame you have decided that finishing runners up in the top div and reaching the FA Cup Final aren’t worthy of note in our history....I guess you may have been taking your gas mates to away games in those days in horse drawn carriages, so missed out on our achievements...did Dick Turpin hold up you and your passengers?!

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On 18/03/2018 at 09:04, reddogkev said:

 

Millwall v City is going to be huge.  What is behind their recent surge up the table?

Tim Cahill :facepalm:

Sorry couldn't help that one, he hasn't lived up to my expectations. Not had a lot of game time either.

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5 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Might well be less than 78, given games like that can easily end in draws.

CITY- P38 Pts 61:

  • Barnsley (A)
  • Brentford (H)
  • Millwall (A)
  • Birmingham (H)
  • Middlesbrough (A)
  • Hull (H)
  • Nottm Forest (A)
  • Sheff Utd (H)

One of the kinder run-ins I feel. That Sheff Utd game, could make or break it for us.

 

Quality post, looks like you must have spent a bit of time looking into those fixtures.  I've only quoted a part of it, as you can see to look at the City games. 

Considering our unconvincing form of 2018, but allowing for the fact we do seem to be improving again, I can see us doing the following:

Our Games:

  • Barnsley (A) - draw
  • Brentford (H) - win by 1 goal
  • Millwall (A) - lose
  • Birmingham (H) Win
  • Middlesbrough (A) Draw
  • Hull (H) Win
  • Nottm Forest (A) Win
  • Sheff Utd (H). Draw, or lose a nervy match by 1 goal - either way, I can't see us winning.

That would leave us on 75 / 76 points.  It could be crucial that we beat Barnsley next to give us the extra couple of points.

But who knows, anything can and probably will happen!

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32 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

 

Read your two posts above....so you ARE interested in what happened years ago....shame you have decided that finishing runners up in the top div and reaching the FA Cup Final aren’t worthy of note in our history....

FA cup in 1902.......

Runners up - when?

Either way City have no significant history to speak up.

We have won nothing.

 

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10 hours ago, Robbored said:

FA cup in 1902.......

Runners up - when?

Either way City have no significant history to speak up.

We have won nothing.

 

FA Cup Runners Up in 1909

Top Div Runners Up 1906/1907

Where did you get 1902 from?!!

And to say you “aren’t remotely interested in what happened years ago” means you think some of our achievements aren’t significant because they happened so long ago? That’s like Sky ignoring football pre 1992...

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8 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

FA Cup Runners Up in 1909

Top Div Runners Up 1906/1907

Where did you get 1902 from?!!

And to say you “aren’t remotely interested in what happened years ago” means you think some of our achievements aren’t significant because they happened so long ago - that’s like Sky ignoring football pre 1992...

All over a century ago. Do you suppose other clubs with no history like us cling on to their record of coming second?

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1 minute ago, Robbored said:

All over a century ago. Do you suppose other clubs with no history like us cling on to their record coming second?

I’m not ‘clinging on’ to anything....on an earlier post you said we’ve done nothing in our history except what happened in 1976 - I’m just pointing out that we did achieve pretty significant things before 1976...

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9 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

on an earlier post you said we’ve done nothing in our history except what happened in 1976 - I’m just pointing out that we did achieve pretty significant things before 1976...

Personally I don't see coming second as 'significant'  Even being League 1 Champions recently isn't that big an achievement.

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5 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Personally I don't see coming second as 'significant'  Even being League 1 Champions recently isn't that big an achievement.

I think finishing as runners up in the top division in England is significant...you said 1976 was our last achievement - yes we were in the top division for four seasons from 1976, but we didn’t finish anywhere near runners up - I believe our best finish during that run was 13th in 1978?

Its quite nice to say to a Liverpool or Man U fan that our highest ever league finish is only one place lower than theirs...they don’t half look bemused at that!

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19 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Might well be less than 78, given games like that can easily end in draws.

The run-ins (Opponents in the top six and other teams chasing to be bolded- the potential spoilers or outsiders, to be italicised!

 

Preston- P38 Pts 60:

  • Sheff Wed (A)
  • Derby (H)
  • Reading (A)
  • Leeds (H)
  • QPR (A)
  • Norwich (H)
  • Sheff Utd (A)
  • Burton (H)

That is actually not a bad run-in at all. Norwich at home and Leeds at home and QPR away of course are all potential games in which points can be dropped.

 

I didn't realise how piss easy Preston's run is.  Definitely back them for a play off place.  Derby, with their away form, should be a win. Other than Sheff U it all looks pretty straight forward.

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19 hours ago, JulieH said:

Don’t suppose there is any cctv???? 

Not from 1976 thankfully.......

Even if there was cctv, with so many swarming all over the pitch I couldn't be identified.

Ive changed quite a bit in the last 42 years...............:facepalm:

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