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Just working some numbers: £30m in a 20 year secured bond is going to earn about 3.5% so £1.05m per year. Unless the Al Qadis are going to release their security on the Memorial Ground then this would be unsecured and so would need to pay higher than this, without some kind of guarantee the interest would be up to 7% plus but offer some security (other family assets?) and maybe 4.5% would attract an investor so £1.35m a year so the new ground facilities will need to generate an additional £26k per week plus the £30m would require repayment at the end. Maybe £10m is more realistic and would allow events to be held so requiring £9k a week additional income to pay the interest and then more than that again to cover existing losses and build up enough reserves to repay at the end. It still at root doesn't work for me. That refurbishment in isolation may stand up but the ongoing losses of £2m, I know there are write-offs there so say £1m at least, means that there is no prospect of the club doing anything other than swallowing money on that scale for many years to come. This has the whiff of shit or bust about it and maybe the true purpose of that London office is finding a greater fool new owner.

We’ve got a few related things here. On the one hand is how much the capital will cost the company. Any self-respecting CFO will know this, made of of the blended cost of equity and cost of borrowing. Let’s assume this investment would be entirely financed. Any investor will want a rate of return based on the risk free rate (what is available risk-free, usually the return on 25 yr government bonds) plus the credit risk premium that relates to the company, the investment, the industry etc. Risk free rate is going to be about 2.8%, credit risk premium is really hard - heavily indebted company not currently making a profit, industry probably past peak revenues BUT the lending would be secured on the new asset. Moot point, would the new asset plus the eventual sale of the Minimal cover the current plus new debt? Then you have the issue if having an old stadium while the new one is built - costs go up considerably in the short term, this really hurt Arsenal so heaven knows what it does to a small club. I’d say they’d be lucky to get away with an interest rate of less than 8%. That means each million costs £80k a year in interest alone, and the investment also has to be paid back at some point. Payingf for the ‘80k’s’ is not a simple income generation issue. It’s virtaully unheard of for each £1 of additional revenue to add £1 to the coffers. So what margin will these ‘new income streams’ generate? We know that Ashton Gate now generates lots of new income but it’s hard to say what profit each activity delivers, though the club will know (obviously). We’ve got first mover advantage so Sags would be trying to attract market share away from an established supplier. Maybe they undercut us in their new megabowl, except that hurts margin and they’ve got all those £80ks to pay.... i wouldn’t want to have to write this an investment proposal!

I suppose it comes down to a simple question, from any potential investors point of view. If they have no connection or affinity to Bristol Rovers “Where will my investment see the best return?” Even if they specifically yearn to invest in football, are Rovers really a viable option to generate significant (if any) ROI..? On the face of it, the answer has to be “No” FACTS: They haven’t averaged over 10k for 40 years. They have no remaining assett to Secure investment against. Their current offering must be one of the least attractive in the market. They have no valid plans to bring on-field success, to enhance the club’s standing. Indeed, promotion to the Championship, and it’s related costs, would send them deeper into debt. As I see it, their only hope is to find a very wealthy football fan, looking for a “project”, who’s got money to burn on a “hobby” - maybe some Jordanian bankers or something. What could possibly go wrong with a plan like that...?!

A good summary of possible goings on, Eddie. Thanks. For this to be appealing to any third party investor, use of the stadium and its infrastructure would need to be maximised. Many of our fellow supporters dislike the Bristol Sport concept and sharing AG with the egg chasers but in truth, it's a more sound business model than would have been seen had City gone forward alone. It enables the stadium to be used for sporting events every week through the season added to which it has quickly become established as a popular events and conference venue. In a city the size of Bristol, there is only room for one Bristol Sport concept - and we're a cornerstone of it and thus, able to enjoy the benefits of it. Any 'other football club' in the city will use their ground on just 23 occasions each season, plus cup ties - so just 23 occasions then. For conference facilities, they will find themselves competing with hotels, us (with the prospect of a new arena rumoured to be planned by SL) and the city council - once their new arena is built at TM. I accept that may be someday, one day or maybe never but if it is ever built, competition for conferences and events in Bristol will become extremely fierce. I just don't see how the likely profit from 23/365 (see what I did there?) events can entice a non-partisan investor to part with £30-40m.

Fortunately for Wael, he doesn't have the worry about stopping at traffic lights because the gashead throng carry him straight past them and on down the Gloucester Road.

Just seen this gem on gaschat!! 75k if needed, just to clarify that’s basically Old Trafford! Amazing http://gaschat.co.uk/thread/11894/consulted-on-stadium?page=2 If the ambition is to compete at the top of the championship and beyond then a new stadium elsewhere will be needed. A 20,000 stadium with the space to allow it to become 75,000 in the future as needed.

Risk, Risk, Risk.... they forgot about the (revenue) streams.... A more modern take on the classic 'ground/team rant from that glorious day when they went non league.

I agree with your summary of the position Mr Junkie. It's not been explicitly stated but as I read it from what happened with the UWE deal the family, not having the enormously deep pockets of our own Lansdown family, are trying to set up a side deal for a stadium which will attract external funding. So someone without a Rovers or family connection would provide the money for the rebuild and upgrade of facilities so that it would provide a regular income rather than just gate money (conferences at sports grounds are good, there are a decent number of these and events held at Ashton Gate) and in return they would get the profit from these events for ?20, 30 years or an agreed inflating rental stream. That IMO is the reason for the repeated "these things take time" messages, they are trying to come up with a redesign and funding package that will attract an investor and then have to find the investor. They do not intend just rebuilding a few stands because they would have to fund that themselves and there would be minimal return on that funding. Ordinary debt funding packages are out because the security on the Memorial Ground has already been taken by the Al Qadis to secure their money so there is no physical security available meaning that they have to find someone prepared to lend money based upon the future additional income stream of the redeveloped ground. That is a fairly hard sell but there may be someone interested if they can package it well and seek them out. The idea of a search for an outside investor is also the only way that I can make sense of that otherwise baffling £250k a year London office for which Rovers shelling out. If the two staff are debt market specialists then that will be its purpose and they don't come cheap.

I've got it. I've got pretty much every gift they have given, including the Soccer Saturday highlights with Jeff saying those immortal words "and it is ALL OVER for Bristol Rovers". Beautiful. OMG. Just the way he talks about things taking time is sooooooo lovely. He is such a lovely lovely man.

Ambitions have been revised since then. Now.... " 5 years from now we will be in the championship with a better ground,a great youth set up and a bright future. " http://gaschat.co.uk/thread/11891/romans-jordanians Everything's always "in 5 years" with those clowns...

I work in commercial lending (in the USA), but we certainly look at the attractability of the collateral to help determine if we are going to do the loan and at what interest rate. It's one thing to end up repossessing a commercial building; we can sell it or keep it and rent it out for cash flow. It's another thing entirely to take specialized collateral that has no market. Not only do we end up charging off the loan balance and lose the income stream of interest payments, but now we own something with no value as we can't sell it. A triple loss, really. So, we charge a lot more interest and even a higher origination fee to help offset that, unless we decline the loan in the first place.

He wouldn't. He's a lovely guy.

Good analogy I think. Would the lenders be happy with this though? I guess if it’s secured on the asset and the asset can be repossessed and sold for enough to cover the loan they might be.

By about 158...!

Not far off in my opinion but the affordability / stress test would be on revenues generating enough pre-tax profit to cover the interest and not the lender taking a share of the revenue to cover the interest. That sort of shared risk approach is quite possible but would probably drive the credit risk premium higher (in my opinion). EDIT - come to think of it this is basically taking equity in the company and getting rewards through dividends. Interest is tax-deductible but you still need to make enough to cover it, no profit equals no tax due equals no deduction for interest payments. The repayment of the principal at the end of the term is less of an issue as refinancing Is possible.

Strangely that’s the sort of finance package that Islamic Banks often construct for large capital projects. They set up a special-purpose company that builds or buys the asset then rents it to the end-user for a period of time. The rent is distributed, after costs, to investors who buy shares in the SPC. The end-user pays for operations and maintenance and redeems the loan, buying the asset, at the end of the term. Simplistic overview but that’s my understanding - PFI for companies via a souped-up bond arrangement. Sometimes it would be nice to be as academically and intellectually gifted as Stan Gasman eh? In summary, not a snowball’s chance in hell of it happening without the vast majority coming from equity investment as with Steve L’s in us.

Essentially, as I understand it, Dwayne sports want to borrow a load of money, say £40M for redevelopment / rebuild. Given their crap financial performance currently and lack of assets, anyone who lends them that money will charge an interest rate of 8% due to that risk. This means they would have to find £3,200,000 a year to pay the interest alone. What happens if they don't pay it, gawd knows! The asset transfers to the lender I guess? The lender would then ask for a slice of revenues for, say, 30 years as payback on the loan. As the gas lose money now, they would have to make a shed load extra just to stay in the same financial position they are in now. Imagine someone who's broke and massively in debt, asking the bank for money. They would be charged much more than someone more credible as they are a much higher risk. That's how I think it works but stand to be corrected by those far more knowledgeable on these things.

I think it’s all Bull as it usually is with anything coming out of Whorefield, Higgs probably told Wally when he took over that the pikeys believe anything you say to just string them along. Cant wait to see how it ends, it won’t be pretty I’m sure of it.

I think you will be disappointed as he miscounted.

Sad reality of external investment. Since you have to make a profit to pay a dividend then equity holders may get fed up and sell their shares if they can. Of course over the, say, 30 year life of the project finance the asset should grow in value (the land will almost certainly) and the £80k’s paid back in 2050 are worth much less in today’s terms than the ones paid back in 2020. Revenue will grow as long as crowds stay stable but costs will increase. A fascinating NPV model I think - but I ain’t going to write it.

So that's around 1 million a year that needs to be generated BEFORE any additional profits could be ploughed back into developing the club. Any on or off field issues soon destroys the profit margins and sinks the club.

A Little Respect....Erasure (eraser?!)

You would have thought so PSR but I'm not sure Higgs wasn't already doing that hence why Wael and his mob had to pay him off and start accruing debt again against the asset , essentially paying off Higg's charge by putting their own on the same asset. I'm only guessing by the way. I'm intrigued as to where all this ££££ is coming from for their superdome / new tent etc as they no longer have the Sainsbury's money and can't borrow against their only asset as it's got a charge on it already and is subsequently mortgaged to the limit as I see it?

Transferred to the charge against the land (their only asset) I guess.

Yeah sure. PM me your email address and I will send it through.

So, are you going to share?

How timely to see the cuckoo on these pages! The first this spring. The common cuckoo is a crafty parasite, laying it's eggs in another bird's nest, then the hatched little pirate eases the host bird's team out of the nest, and before you know it, it's running around everywhere calling "we want another nest!" The cuckoo is a lying, sneaky little ****er and is traditionally associated with cocks.

It’s worth remembering that Rovers haven’t had an average attendance over 10k for 40 years. Yeah, I sure they’ll need that 75k stadium...

Bloody great month of boxing that. If McDonnell wins in Japan it'll be up there with Lloyd Honeyghan beating Don Curry in Atlantic City I reckon, Inoue is one fearsome bugger who well deserves the 'Monster' nickname. Haye, GGG, Gassiev, Loma, Selby, Stevenson, Inoue imo. The next 2 Saturdays aren't bad either!

Sorry....few more berks to point and laugh at.

This time in 5 years Rodney, Wael'll be a billionaire.

bluebutterfly Club Legend Posts: 2,132 Posting Level Next Level in 868 posts Post by bluebutterfly on 12 hours ago 1] they paid off the debts of the previous owners including the wonga loan. 2] They bought a great piece of land to develop a training facility. 3] They invested in coaches at various levels of the club. 4] They introduced a development squad as a bridge between academy football and senior football. 5] They got darrell clarke signed up on a 5 year contract. 6] They paid fees for 5 players partington,burn,nichols,mensah and sercombe,only sercombes fee of 150k was disclosed. 7] We now have proper water sprinklers built into the pitch. 8] We have 21 senior pro footballers. 9] we have an electronic scoreboard and other superficial improvements to the ground. 10] were introducing electronic turnstiles. 11] we now have a CEO. 12] We have a statistical analysis [will dubey] . Question marks? 1]We are losing money. Most clubs have overall debt,some as high as £100m+ but even so we dont want to be losing money. 2]The charge against the mem,some say totally normal business practise,others think its a sinister threat to the club. 3]But what about the new ground or redeveloped ground?some say give them time,others say nothing will ever happen. COST OF GETTING A NEW GROUND,TRAINING FACILITY AND PROMOTION WINNING TEAM? £60-80m maybe? can this be done with our new owners? YES OF COURSE IT CAN 5 years from now we will be in the championship with a better ground,a great youth set up and a bright future.

Think someone said that young Jake had deleted it from his youtube page. Hardly surprising mind, who'd want permanent proof that your old man is a pissed up ***t floating around the internet.

"providing us with a unique e-mail address for every Season Ticket that you own" What old system are they using? So if you bring 2 kids you have to make email addresses for them rather than having them all linked to your one account...

Lazy *******. You go back and read it all. Great way to spend 4 and a half days laughing your head off!

Haha, he's a shocker. Throw in Tinman85 & Swanker and it's a real party.

You should meet Londoner. You and him would get on very well. Anyone who brags about their academic achievements as a means of belittling other people isn't worth the oxygen they breathe.

In fairness to the headbanger, he's not used to hard properly glazed windows, they don't have them in tents.

making things up about a Mensa score now . This lot are priceless . No wonder this thread grows and grows absolute belters the lot of them

Surely you jest? The photo of the graffiti in North Bristol on a fence? Here it is...