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Sorry, got to share this ?

Q1..Please can I use a stepladder......... Answer..No Q2..Please can I take my hard hat off for 2 minutes while I work in a place where I can’t fit my head in if I keep it on......... Answer..No Q3..Please can I use a perfectly good drill that has a PAT test out of date by 1 day while I await re-testing........ Answer..No Q4..Please can I run an extension lead across the floor for 5 minutes ........... Answer..No Q5..Please can I use another trades mobile scaffold which I am trained to build...... Answer..On many sites No Q6..Please can I undo my chin strap in a building with enclosed windows when the temperature is about 90 degrees...... Answer..On many sites, No Q7..Should I go to work on site when there is a global pandemic that is the most contagious thing ever known to man, travel on the tube squeezed in as usual with hundreds of other people, use a finger scanner for access and get in a small lift with 10 other blokes and a lift driver that stays in there all day........ Answer..Yes Ok thanks.....as long as my health, safety and well-being remains your top priority I will crack on ??

There seems to be a lot of wishful thinking going on around this. It seems about 50% of the population are trying to convince themselves that they already 'had it around Christmas'.

The situation is complicated to say the least. There are going to be many more cases than the official figure because testing has been restricted to the hospitalised cases for the past week or so. What we don’t know is whether 5% or 20% of cases are being hospitalised. If it’s the former then the likelihood is that there are a lot of people with relatively mild or no symptoms with the virus (Prince Charles) but if it’s the latter then the NHS will be overwhelmed very quickly. There are definitely more patients with respiratory problems being admitted to intensive care than usual, so if anyone still believes this is just like a bad flu winter, please junk that misconception. The likelihood is that this will be somewhere between very bad and the NHS will just cope given the massive plans already being devised, or it will be truly apocalyptic and up to half a million will die. Until we get the serological (blood) testing to see how many already have antibodies we will remain dependent on modelling assumptions, which will range from the stupidly optimistic to the darkly pessimistic. Unfortunately you have to plan for the latter until proven otherwise. On that basis, please try to stay at home, self isolate if you have symptoms, although in mild cases it can be hard to know if it really is anything or not, which is a problem in itself, and hopefully we can slow transmission for now. However, this isn’t going away if it’s own accord and until either there is an effective early treatment to stop people getting so sick as to need intensive care, a vaccine or herd immunity does reach a high enough level, then restrictions are likely to continue. I would suggest that is more likely to be months rather than a few weeks.

The last time Tory MPs clapped and cheered the NHS was in the House of Commons when they had just defeated a bill to give all NHS workers a pay rise! Just saying.

Has a post ever aged worse?

I have to say, until scientists have been able to do more analysis, we don't know who or what caused the virus. We may never know. The causes of many great pandemics, including "Spanish flu", are just conjecture. The dominant theory is that it began in Wuhan in November/December and may have some connection to the city's "wet market" and either bats or pangolins. But there are problems with this: the form of bat coronavirus found in the kind of bats eaten in central China is only 96% a DNA match with Covid-19. That isn't normally close enough for a mutated virus to "jump species". As for pangolins, it's the scales that are ground up and used in (already banned) traditional medicine. These would be very unlikely to carry the virus, and pangolins only have a 90.3%match with the genetic material carried by Covid-19. Unlikely that they are either its direct source or even the "bridge" to forest bats. They are critically endangered for one thing. Also, multiple reports suggest that neither bats or pangolins were sold in the wet market in Wuhan. Bat-eating being much more of a rural thing; something that is dying out in modern China. You don't need to blame the peculiar eating habits of some Chinese for these zoonotic diseases. They are much more likely to come from everyday farm animals that everyone eats: chickens (SARS/MERS); pigs (Swine Fever), etc. Moreover, research on many virus outbreaks has suggested they may have circulated for decades at a low-level before a mutation made them more dangerous and a "super-spreader" burst them into an epidemic. Although AIDS was first identified in New York in 1981, evidence now shows it was present in the Congo basin area in the 1930s and had reached the US by the 1960s. Deaths from it were chalked up to different causes. So I personally wouldn't "blame China" for a virus mutation over which they would've had no control, and which may not even have originated there. If there's blame to be attributed, we need to await the "inquest" on all this: and that may be years away.

He may be right; at present it's all speculation followed by assertion in the absence of decent data. Actual cases and deaths at this stage are a tiny fraction of a normal winter's flu and the scary looking curves if plotted against that would be barely discernible. The first point at which we get some decent data is with the roll out of the 2.5 million antibody testing kit to see how many in the wider population have had it. There are claims that it has been around for over a year before it was identified; they may be wrong but this will be the first time those claims are tested. Current testing is only identifying whether someone currently has the virus; if they have had it and recovered then it returns a negative. If it turns out from those tests that half the population has had it and the death rate is 0.0001% then it's back to normal; if it's that a tiny number have had it and the death rate is 2% then it's keep the hatches battened down particularly for people with existing health problems for whom that 2% becomes a lot higher. Governments generally are copying each other in their response though Sweden has taken the approach of carrying on as normal. Either approach may be correct.

That applause was strangely more emotional than I thought possible

A fellow red is back at work at hospital from retirement teaching the use of ventilators. Providing support and guidance, Kelvin is a Hero Red.

Just to lighten the mood.... Subject: WOMEN’S INSTITUTE EMAIL - Imagine Victoria Wood or Joyce Grenville saying this... Buckshaw WI have issued the following guidance for isolation. Right ladies, Judith Bickerstaffe has kindly emailed the crochet patterns for the face masks and matching underwear sets. Anyone who runs out of wool should message Delia who will leave fresh supplies in a vacuum sealed sandwich bag on your doorstep. She will knock the theme tune to Miami Vice on your door so you know it's her, you'll have to take pot luck on colours, but I do know there is a particularly lovely shade of burnt copper. Mavis has drawn up a rota for the Haz Mat suit and WW2 Gas Mask, it is one size fits all so please don't specify size requirements. If any of our less able members need provisions such as bread, milk, wine, Gin or pickled walnuts please contact Cynthia, who will pop to the shops for you providing her moped isn't being used by her grandson for pizza deliveries. Laura will go ahead with her useful and inspirational talk on Christmas and other gifts made from j-cloths via Skype. Currently we will have to abandon our collection of soft toys made from used hosiery, particularly after that unfortunate incident when Derek Malmsbury was found doing unspeakable things to the elephant made by his wife, Nora. I'm sure we all support Nora at this upsetting time. Apparently they WERE Derek's fishnets, which is why he was confused and why he wanted them back. Still that should never be done to a child's soft toy. Connie is finishing off the template for making an emergency face mask and draft excluder from a spare bra. I know some members have raised concern that as Connie is a 46GG she has more material to work with than most, but she assures me her template will be scalable from 32 A upwards. Audrey wants to apologize for the mix-up with the medication run, but please be rest assured Joan suffered no side effects from taking Marjorie Butterworth's husband Viagra and haliborange. And likewise Marjorie's husband seems to have responded really well to the HRT. Marjorie says they even agreed on the pattern for their new curtains. Sad news because of the Government announcement, the trip to Leeds and 'Miss Fifi's Private Dungeon and Macrame club' has been postponed and at this moment we don't have a rescheduled date. Great news: we have already started collecting prizes for the summer fayre raffle. It looks like the star prize this year may well be a pack of 9 Andrex Quilted Aloe Vera toilet rolls. Shortly followed by a complete set of knitted Nolan Sisters toilet roll covers. Mavis says any resemblance between Colleen and Anne Widdecombe is purely coincidental. Right Ladies I must dash, I hear Booths has just had a fresh delivery of tinned prunes.

Yeah - where I am at the moment is pretty rural and not too many houses. I was surprised how loud it was.

I was half expecting to be on my own, but the noise around the streets in Chepstow was fantastic

Same where I live. Was amazed how loud it was to be honest.

Lots out in my street showing appreciation for the NHS. Good to see.

The bloke who was licking supermarket shelves has been arrested. What an absolute **** https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/25/man-charged-terrorism-licking-supermarket-shelves-mock-coronavirus-12453518/

This virus is not doing my health anxiety any good at all - I thought after my CBT finished I'd finally got a handle on it, but this is ramping it right up to the top of the scale again. Not helped by all the theories either (although I must say a couple of them I read today made me spit the cornflakes out - its apparently been caused by either 5G or a plague missile from North Korea, there are some right crackpots on social media and no mistake)

Most people who die from this disease do so at least 10 days - 2 weeks after they start showing symptoms. Yesterday showed the largest number of new cases in a day, which is concerning. Even if we’re only currently testing people who are so sick they're in hospital, that still suggests that the death rate will go up over the next 7 days. Obviously we all hope for a quick drop in cases and deaths but it’s worth remaining realistic about where we are in this Pandemic.

This is a great post, the only thing I’d ask anyone in healthcare who posts on here would be, how does the number of admissions to Hospital since January for Pneumonia compare to a Winter/Spring period from every other year? My suspicion, judging from what doctors themselves are saying, is that it’s much higher than usual which would suggest (maybe) that this has not been doing the rounds for that long and consequently the number of people who already have immunity is not that great at all.

In times of despair, one can always count on a JB status to bring some cheer

Cuprinol

America back to work next week I think he meant next month as his syrup slipped over his eyes

Gloucester Road was full of appreciation.

Yep same here by me. Totally forgot until I started hearing it outside!

Ahh the old Tyne-Where derby.

As a species we are constantly asking for novel viral trouble really, be that by mixing and butchering all these disparate species in one unsanitary place, or pumping pigs full of antibiotics in massive sheds in Mexico. And it's not just the Chinese that have wet markets tbf, you see similar in Indonesia and all over Asia- and are they any less dangerous than what the US does on an industrial scale to livestock and the subsequent loss of human medical protection? Let's hope attitudes change after this.

You're missing the third, far more likely possibility; that it wasn't Covid-19 at all Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you didn't have some horrible virus you may not have had before, but as @Kid in the Riot said a couple of pages back, you would have been tested in hospital and a novel Coronavirus would have been easily identified at the time, and gained worldwide attention. If it's been running wild in the UK for 4 months, why have thousands of people not succumbed to serious lung disease or died here already, given the pace we're watching both rise at now?

What a rather impertinent question. As far as I am concerned China is on this map of the world of ours simply to be punished. There should be absolutely no questioning of this exercise. It should be carried out with precision and decisiveness leaving the rest of us more healthy and happy.

Hahaha, I reckon Alex Jones used his best crayons for that one! Absolutely reeks of 4Chan.

They all started in China. Lifestyle and laws could be amended to ensure cross over of diseases from animals to humans is minimalised; there is little to no evidence this has been enacted by Chinese authorities. Does this adequately explain?

Agreed but I don't think it's helping to group people into "doom mongers" and "selfish idiots" because it reads like a Lee Johnson thread with happy clappers and LJ haters. As per posts above: we don't know, nobody knows. People are entitled to speculate and analyse the data, as that's what the experts are doing, but the current light lockdown is designed to head off an imminent spike in cases for the NHS to deal with so I think makes sense either way for now. When the data from the testing is in then some hard decisions will have to be made because the effect in the round has to be assessed. There are real world consequences from the lockdown: people will lose money, livelihoods, businesses, and homes. There will be suicides. Important as it is there are more things to consider than the virus.

I think, in response to a few earlier posts; the number shown as infected will increase sharply for the foreseeable. Two reasons for this: Firstly; More people are getting it, we all know infection rate hasn't peaked yet.......BUT.....the sooner people take isolation seriously, the SOONER infection rates WILL PLATEAU. Secondly; the Govt are ramping up testing, ALOT more people will be tested from here on in. Hopefully the retrospective tests that are soon to be rolled out will show more people have had the virus than currently estimated, though this is not probably too likely in reality - hoping I'm wrong on that. It's a very difficult situation to manage. We all want to keep deaths of of friends, colleagues, family and loved ones to an ABSOLUTE MINIMUM, but also we need a world we can all enjoy and live in after, without rationing and the incredible hardships that a great depression would bring. (Not just luxury items, make NO mistake, get it wrong and we could end up with food and clothes shortages to name but two) for many years to come. It's hard for me to fathom that my 9 and 11 yo kids could still be suffering from the fall out of this when they leave the education system in many years time. Really tough choices for our leaders, I for one, don't envy them one bit. History will judge us all on these coming months for sure. We all must do our bit.

Peter Hitchens? **** me don’t want to listen to that pompous plank.

Just settling down to watch Contagion on ITV2. I love those far-fetched disaster movies, they are a great break from the mundane reality of day-to-day life.

Nothing to see here. I've managed to quote myself. Doh!

CSE grade 2 maths and a width kick with float at Beg Brooke primary in 1965 if your asking.

To$$er. He should have been arrested years ago for having a name like Cody Pfister.

I've told you before @Red-Robbo don't be bringing facts and logic into debates on here.

I've said it intentionally and stand by it. The blame for this sits squarely at the feet of China.

How about this one The corona Virus travelled entire world from Wuhan but it did not reach Beijing and Shanghai... can anybody put light? Looks So Logical....After all Chinese Stock Market didn't crash....American and European Markets did. Destroy other markets and be ready to capture them in every way How to dominate the world quickly? THE GREAT CHINESE STAGE 1. Create a virus and the antidote. 2. Spread the virus. 3. A demonstration of efficiency, building hospitals in a few days. After all, you were already prepared, with the projects, ordering the equipment, hiring the labor, the water and sewage network, the prefabricated building materials and stocked in an impressive volume. 4. Cause chaos in the world, starting with Europe. 5. Quickly plaster the economy of dozens of countries. 6. Stop production lines in factories in other countries. 7. Cause stock markets to fall and buy companies at a bargain price. 8. Quickly control the epidemic in your country. After all, you were already prepared. 9. Lower the price of commodities, including the price of oil you buy on a large scale. 10. Get back to producing quickly while the world is at a standstill. Buy what you negotiated cheaply in the crisis and sell more expensive what is lacking in countries that have paralyzed their industries. PS: Pl read the book by Chinese colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, from 1999, “Unrestricted Warfare: China’s master plan to destroy America”, on Amazon. It's all there. Worth pondering.. Just Think about this... How come Russia & North Korea are totally free of Covid- 19? Because they are staunch ally of China. Not a single case reported from this 2 countries. On the other hand South Korea / United Kingdom / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit. How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus? China will say that their drastic initial measures they took was very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas. I am sure they are using the Anti dode of the virus. Why Beijing was not hit? Why only Wuhan? Kind of interesting to ponder upon.. right? Well ..Wuhan is open for business now. America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially. Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China. China knows it CANNOT defeat America militarily as USA is at present THE MOST POWERFUL country in the world. So use the virus...to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its Defense capabilities. I'm sure Nancy Pelosi got a part in this. . to topple Trump. Lately President Trump was always telling of how GREAT American economy was improving in all fronts. The only way to destroy his vision of making AMERICA GREAT AGAIN is to create an economic havoc. Nancy Pelosi was unable to bring down Trump thru impeachment. ....so work along with China to destroy Trump by releasing a virus. Wuhan,s epidemic was a showcase. At the peak of the virus epidemic. .. China's President Xi Jinping...just wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit those effected areas. As President he should be covered from head to toe.....but it was not the case. He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus....that means a cure was already in place before the virus was released. Some may ask....Bill Gates already predicted the outbreak in 2015...so the chinese agenda cannot be true. The answer is. ..YES...Bill Gates did predict. .but that prediction is based on a genuine virus outbreak. Now China is also telling that the virus was predicted well in advance. ....so that its agenda would play along well to match that prediction. China,s vision is to control the World economy by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe ECONOMIC COLLAPSE. Later China will announce that their Medical Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus. Now China have other countries stocks in their arsenal and these countries will soon be slave to their master...CHINA. Just Think about it ... The Doctor Who declared this virus was also Silenced by the Chinese Authorities

Animal corona type virus's have been observed in animals including bats for years. Plus it's been observed and reported that a lot of chinese practises risk the mutation of the virus enabling it to infect humans. A ticking time bomb were the words used I think. I have no idea what presure was applied following this but so can't comment on that. Do you not think the Chinese goverment should have acted? Whilst the risk was known, the particular strain and it characteristics could not be, so not sure how we could have prepared? What would you have done? I'm not sure I believe we can assess who has managed it well at this point. Should, as suspected, the virus be a result of chinese practises, I would hope they are dealt with accordingly and the goverment forced to deal with the risks the behaviour of some of it's people cause. Why wouldn't you try and prevent re-occurances?

Yes, I've read that it was a weapon created by the Chinese against the West and the US against the Chinese. Well it's not a very good weapon when it's killing both!

Yep, I did in fact have a really nasty virus around October that eventually turned into a chest infection in November. The chest infection was in the same place I had pneumonia three years ago so I've been through the mill with chest infections of late and know how it works, all the way from GP care through to hospitalisation for the pneumonia. I was also in the BRI on Tuesday including in a coronavirus isolation unit. The hospital is actually incredibly quiet at the moment because they've cancelled all outpatient appointments and routine surgery. I was the only person in the isolation unit and only saw two other patients all day, one of whom was a young man that had done too much ket the night before! But it's quiet for a very good reason, because they know in three to four weeks time it is very likely they are going to be at capacity dealing with covid-19 patients. The concern is that this virus is so contagious and hits the lungs quickly meaning vulnerable patients (including myself as an asthmatic and recent history of chest infections) are going to be hospitalised in some instances. Difficult to see normality returning any time soon with no vaccine or medication available to reduce the impact of symptoms. Hope I'm wrong, but my recent experiences mean I ain't overly optimistic.

I think normal life will be on hold for a long time - although it’s possible rules might be relaxed from time to time. There are only two ways this recedes: either we get a vaccine or herd immunity develops. The reason the original herd immunity strategy was abandoned is that it would have led to a massive overburdening of our critical care capacity. What’s happening now is an attempt to let the virus spread at a manageable rate - but that also slows the progress to herd immunity. Eradicating it in the UK, even if possible, wouldn’t resolve the problem unless we could absolutely isolate ourselves from the rest of the world until the virus was no longer a problem i.e. vaccine or global herd immunity, One of the possibilities outlined in the Imperial College study is a series of periods of “tighter and looser” constraints - lockdown when there’s a risk of critical care beds being overburdened, relaxed temporarily when cases come down, then turned on again before capacity is threatened. I suspect that’s what we’ll see. Quite what “looser” would look like, I’ve no idea (shops but no pubs? Behind closed doors sport but none live?) I can see problems with a position where those who have had the virus have advantages over those who haven’t: if some are working and earning (and able to circulate freely) whilst others aren’t, the latter would feel hard done by and, logically, would be given an incentive to expose themselves to the virus to get back to normal. And how would the authorities be able to ensure only those “permitted” are out and about? As I say, I don’t know the answers and am glad I'm not the one who has to make the decisions. I strongly believe this initial lockdown will extend well beyond the next three weeks. I expect to see BJ in a couple of weeks congratulating us on our efforts, and telling us there are signs it’s working, so we just need to carry on for a while longer. The game changer would be if it turns out that a large number of people have had the virus. That would indicate that the proportion of sufferers who need hospital and critical care would be lower than currently projected, so that the disease could circulate more freely without jeopardising critical care capacity, and would allow us to get to herd immunity sooner. Fingers crossed.

Yep. Interesting story.