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North London Red

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  1. https://www.rebellionresearch.com/blog/northern-italy-wuhan-partners-for-better-or-worse Quite an interesting article here about the Italian situation. It might already have been covered, but I never realised the extent to which northern Italy’s textile and garment industry was reliant on Chinese labour and that it had such close links with Wuhan.
  2. Fair points. The issue of the virus resurfacing once the restrictions are lifted will also dictate how long these measures last. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that lockdowns will last in Europe until a vaccine is widely available (which the experts are saying is likely to be at least a year away)? The length of time to develop, manufacture and distribute bulk quantities of a vaccine is another reason why these restrictions might be in place for the long haul.
  3. The China situation is one I can't quite work out, since it seems to contradict the doomsday scenarios which are implicit in the Imperial College paper and which have been reported in various places. If China's latest numbers are right, it could be the one ray of light here, and the situation may not be quite as bad as feared.
  4. Entirely agree. A couple of things in recent days have made me think this is going to last for much longer than some people think. Firstly, Chris Whitty was asked the other day how long these measures could be in place. His answer was 'weeks or months', and I got the sense he was being deliberately vague because he already knows the answer but doesn't dare reveal it to the public as the answer won't be a popular one. Secondly, if the government are offering assistance to businesses for the next 12 months, what does that tell you? Thirdly, I come back to the point about 60% of the population becoming infected. If this is being considered as a likely outcome in the modelling, and if such a scenario were to occur within 12 months, it would mean an average of 100,000 new cases every single day. That's a rate of infection that's way, way beyond where we currently stand right now.
  5. On the point about herd immunity, for 60% of the UK population to get COVID-19 within one year, you’d need 100,000 new cases every day. If that’s the scenario the government are planning for and which they consider realistic, then it makes you wonder how bad the alternatives (all of which they’ve presumably modelled) would be. If there are 100,000 new cases every day, even if 98% of those cases are only mild or moderate, the other 2% would very quickly put an intolerable strain on all healthcare providers in the country. Very worrying times ahead.
  6. It will be England's first away game against Belgium since 1970. We've played them in seven different cities since, and also played at Euro 2000 in Charleroi, but we haven't played Belgium in Belgium for 50 years. It will also be England's first trip to Iceland since 1982. And we could potentially have two trips to Copenhagen this year. Pretty happy with that.
  7. I was in Cape Town for the Algeria game in 2010. I was also in Lisbon and Coimbra at Euro 2004 when Rooney was outstanding - and quite possibly the best player in the tournament. However much I was annoyed at Rooney in 2010, it’s wide of the make to say he was rubbish at every major championship England played at.
  8. For anyone with a conditional quarter final ticket for England, the Fan ID process (if that quarter final is in St Petersburg) looks like fun and games. The Fan ID system is currently only accepting applications from fans with a confirmed match ticket for a game at Krestovsky. The system won't allow fans with conditional quarter final tickets to apply at present, and for all games in St Petersburg a Fan ID is mandatory to gain entry to the stadium. That means that if England finish second in the group and then win the last 16 game in Copenhagen (admittedly two quite big 'ifs'), thousands of England fans with conditional QF tickets would have to apply immediately for a Fan ID within minutes of the end of the last 16 game, as this would be the earliest point at which the QF ticket becomes unconditional. They'd then have to hope that the system accepts their photo (which was a mission in itself 2 years ago; many fans ended up having to pay for pictures from a photo booth as the application system rejected almost every photo taken on a phone or with a normal camera), and then hope the Fan ID is issued and received in the few days before the quarter final in order to be able to travel to Russia. It would have been much easier if the authorities allowed anyone with a Fan ID from two years ago to re-use it this summer, but they've said everyone will need to re-apply.
  9. Our last interaction with Tottenham would have been the loans for Rose and Caulker, wouldn’t it? I know their spells at Ashton Gate were a good few years ago, but I wonder whether Caulker’s interview with the Guardian a couple of years ago, and the issues he mentions (which Tottenham would presumably have been aware of well before the interview was published) have affected our relationship with them. “Tottenham sent me to Bristol City on loan at 18 and they put me in a flat in the city centre surrounded by nightclubs, two casinos opposite, the kind of money I’d never seen in my life, and no guidance whatsoever. I was pulled once by a member of staff and told I’d been spotted in the casino at 3am but their attitude was: ‘What you do in your spare time is your business. Just don’t let it affect your performances out on the pitch.‘“ Rose has clearly gone on to better things since his loan spell with us. Ten years ago I’d never have guessed he’d go on to play in a champions league final and a world cup semi final. This might be an unfair comment but during his loan spell he seemed to give the impression of playing for us because he’d been told to and not because he wanted to - I might be entirely wrong but I sense both players were glad to get back to Tottenham after their spells with us.
  10. Could it be played 24 hours later? The weather forecast for Wednesday looks a lot better than for Tuesday. Clearly it would hugely inconvenience our fans if it was pushed back by 24 hours at relatively short notice (eg late on Tuesday afternoon) and Shrewsbury might also not be able to get the game on 24 hours later given the need for a certain number of stewards (who might not all be able to work on Wednesday at short notice), unless it’s played behind closed doors. Pushing it back to Tuesday 21st wouldn’t give much time for Liverpool, potentially Reading, and either City or Shrewsbury to sell tickets for the game(s) on the 25th / 26th, although I’m sure it could be done.
  11. Full record here: https://www.11v11.com/teams/swansea-city/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Cardiff City/
  12. Rooney‘s record in major tournaments is 7 goals from 18 starts. Not amazing, but arguably slightly better than ‘performing terribly’, especially when considering he was picked to play while clearly some way short of 100% fitness in several of those games. As for him being the penalty taker, that was only relatively late on in his England career. Lampard was the penalty taker for a good part of it, as evidenced by Lampard being England’s joint all time record penalty scorer, with nine (along with Kane).
  13. Currently in Perth (the Australian one, not the Scottish one) and decided to go along to Perth Glory v Newcastle Jets today. The scorer of Perth’s second goal in a 6-2 win was none other than our old acquaintance Neil Kilkenny. He played quite well today and seems to have lost the highly irksome habit (seen many times at Ashton Gate) of pointing and berating his teammates for the whole game.
  14. Germany in the last 16 in Dublin would have ‘loss on penalties’ written all over it. Although as ever with England, it’s best not to get too far ahead of ourselves (especially bearing in mind our largely unhappy history in the European Championships).
  15. Certainly didn’t happen in 2014!
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