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ExiledAjax

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Everything posted by ExiledAjax

  1. Interesting. Could potentially explain why L1 promoted sides do better than those relegated from the PL on the very first day of the season. Promoted sides average 1.19 ppg on that day, relegated sides only manage 1.1. It's a small difference. I 'feel' like relegated sides undergo more churn than promoted teams...just a feeling, no basis for it. But it's a theory. My theory was that relegated sides were yet to bring parachute payments to bear. We're yet to make their big signings. But maybe general squad churn is a factor. Maybe needs to be tested (anyone want to a PhD in this? I'd be game). Always this isn't it? But with Members in-between. So STs, then Members, then general sale.
  2. When he first signed as a player 32Red happened to sponsor Derby for about the same amount as Rooney was paid. He also happened to wear 32. But 32Red never directly paid his wages.
  3. Seriously though. What's happening with the statue?
  4. What!? You mean Sir Wayne Rooney, licensed insolvency practitioner, speaker of truth and scourge of Quantuma, Lord of Derbyshire, Grand Master of the Rams, Lord Protector of the Park and indeed its Pride, and Free Man of Derby...he's left? I'm shocked. Shocked.
  5. Boro and Rotherham would be tricky. Wearing this third kit in the Argyle friendly would be bad as well. Yeh, and had lots of issues for colourblind fans.
  6. Assuming we have a white away kit you could feasibly see all 3 kits in the first 3 games: Away kit v Hull Home kit at home to Sunderland (assuming they've a sensible away or 3rd kit as the don't seem to have released them) Third kit v Coventry in the League Cup
  7. Nice kit. Use it away to Fulham, Preston, Coventry or someone else that plays in a light shade and it'll work nicely. With a red home kit (obviously) and now this, we are presumably looking at a light or possibly even fully white away kit surely?
  8. A real shame as he's a great player, brings something unique to our defence with his bravery and tenacity, and seems like a nice person as well. But it's always correct to prioritise health, especially when one is so young. Testimonial next summer maybe? Bristol City v Aston Villa with proceeds to a brain injury charity?
  9. To @LandOfSticks, I've been in your shoes, travelling back from living abroad to try and squeeze in some games. One thing I'd suggest if you're concerned about tickets is to check on club membership options. I don't think the scheme for this season is announced yet (last seasons was announced on 1 July) but in seasons past its been a £25 payment and it gets you some small bonuses, one of which was priority over general sale for tickets. You're still behind ST holders, but you get a day or two to get in there ahead of the general sale mob. Plus you get a small discount on the extortionate home tickets. As I said, you'll need to wait and see whether the new scheme offers the same, but it's a little thing that might help. This is the link to last season's announcement https://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/city-membership-launched-for-202122/
  10. Def the Wednesday? Suspect we wouldn't get moved for TV but iirc some games get shifted to the Tuesday or Thursday.
  11. So this is midweek in that 2nd week of August right, after the first home game. Might just go along.
  12. Cheers, out of interest I just did a quick comparison of the same thing but looking at the sides that come down from the Prem. They're (unsurprisingly) quite a bit better. On average they take 9.24 points from all of their opening 6 games. They took 194 points from the equivalent 126 games. There were again 6 games between them, and that accounted for 17 of those points, so it is 177 from 120 games against 'old' and newly promoted teams in the Champ. An average of 1.48 points per game, compare that to the average 0.97 that the promoted teams take. It's a huge difference. Again, of course you've got teams like Huddersfield in 2019/20 who came down and could only take 1 point form their first half dozen games, but generally these teams are good for double figures from the first 6. Again, how do City do? Well one thing we can say is that we've played relegated sides less frequently over the past 7 seasons. Only the 5 games, 3 of which were in the 2016/17 season. We've won 2 and lost 3 of those, so it's about even. We've fared much, much better against promoted sides than against relegated sides. One interesting thing that does jump out though is the very first fixture. Over the past 7 seasons (so in 21 games), relegated Premier League sides have won 6 , drawn 5, and lost 10 of their opening games. In the next round of fixtures that switches to won to won 9, drawn 11, lost 1. The next four rounds are much more like that second round than the first. So perhaps there's something to be said for playing a relegated side on the very first day. Also of note is that in the past 7 seasons we've never seen two relegated sides play each other on either opening day or in the second round of games. So, perhaps next season we should remember this and hope for a relegated side on the opening day, then 3 games against the promoted teams, and then two others? Alternatively we can say that past performance by ancient teams cannot possibly predict future gains, and I've wasted two hours of my day.
  13. Right, I couldn't find any articles or data online, so I did it myself over lunch. Just looking at the results of the newly promoted sides over the first 6 games of the season for the past 7 seasons - i.e. from our own promotion until now. A small sample but I'm not exactly operating with state funding here. So, across the 126 games that I looked at the newly promoted sides accumulated, between them, a grand total of 132 points, at an average of 6.29 points each (mode of 5). Barely more than 1 point per game on average. 16 of these 132 points were gained in matches played between newly promoted sides (6 games). So, out of 120 matches against teams in either the Championship or Premier League in the prior season, newly promoted sides have accumulated 116 points, or fewer than 1 per game. Essentially, the most likely result in an early game between an 'old' team and a newly promoted side, is that the 'old' team wins. "But City are classic City, we always lose to them!" I hear you cry. Bollocks. Over that same period we've played a newly promoted side 6 times. We won 4 and drew 2 of those. That includes 2 wins and 1 draw in opening day fixtures. There is the odd outlier of course. In 2019/20 Charlton Athletic went unbeaten across their first 6, winning 4 and drawing 2 games to have a huge 14 points from their first 6 matches. They finished 22nd and went down. The past two seasons have been particularly brutal starts for the new boys. In those 36 matches newly promoted teams have won only 4 games, and in 2020/21 Wycombe managed to lose all of their first 6 games. So bring on the new boys. Bring us some points early doors and let's get the party started.
  14. Yeh, I'll be surprised if we're anywhere near it this season.
  15. Has anyone actually tested this theory that playing promoted teams early on is hard, or means you're less likely to win? I see Liverpool fans are moaning that they are playing a promoted side on the opening day for the 4th consecutive season...but they’ve won all of the last 3 4-1, 4-3 and 3-0...so maybe it's actually a good thing for them? I've a 'feeling' this is one of those 'theories' that goes in the same bag as the "new manager bounce" or "sign a striker in january". It sounds true, feels right, but when tested proves to be a pile of bollocks.
  16. I'd naively hope that no one got too upset if it was 20 or 23. That's one win, could be one kick or one dodgy penalty that makes that difference.
  17. I'd be hoping for 20 minimum at that stage. 20 after 16 games is 1.25 points per game, so anything more than that is going to have us probably 14th or up, which with 1/3 of the season gone is totally fine. We won't have played everyone by that stage either so could be an inaccurate snapshot. We had 19 after 16 games last season, and a whopping 27 the season before under Holden. Take from that what you will...I know which of those was my preferred season.
  18. Clubs don't even get them until a couple of hours before release. There's no way journalists get them today.
  19. In terms of maximising chances of a win, I'd say something like home to Reading, Millwall, Birmingham or some other middling-to-crap Championship side is what you're looking for on opening day. Personally I'd like an away trip to a midlands team or Norwich in the first tranche of matches.
  20. Agree. I'd hope he gets some QPR game on the EFL coverage. He'd be great, and maybe then go up to the Prem. But as with his time at Man City, it feels like Micah Richards is just a bit ahead of him in the "Man City Pundit" position. Shame, as the Guardian have unearthed a gem of a pundit this season.
  21. https://pca.st/episode/9ea2233c-d17f-4390-b7ee-83497ca74d2c?t=1428 The above links to an enjoyable section of a podcast in which Nedum Onuaha discusses his perceptions and thoughts about Mr. Barton. Is he complimentary? Have a guess. As a clue, here's a slightly paraphrased quote: "I just thought why? Why be like that?" Also, listen to the whole thing. He's an interesting bloke, kind off a Forrest Gump of recent football. Often there in those "moments" but rarely in the foreground.
  22. Worse was that he'd not exactly solved our problems during his initial loan spell. IMO he'd not shown himself to be a player that made us better at defeating our opponents. Certainly not to the point that we should spend £4m on him. Don't forget Northampton at home. We'll always have Northampton.
  23. No idea why we ever took him on loan in the first place. Best thing for all involved.
  24. Praise for Ghanaian FA as well re Semenyo and his shin issue, and their general management of him. Very different to the issue we had with the Hungarians around Nagy.
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