Alessandro

What I don’t understand about the XG here is how many factors taken into consideration: Is no.4 the chance Joe missed? Let’s take that for example - it was 0.20 - so XG is saying only 2/10 times a player will hit the target from 12 yards out?! That’s surely wrong - so can only presume 0.20 is the 2/10 chance of scoring if the goalkeeper is in the right place - in this case it’s clearly not taken into consideration that the keeper is flat on the floor out of the place and the goal is gaping?! Also out of interest - if you have time, don’t worry if not - what was the XG on Knights header in the second half from the corner? Thank you!

I think you’ve summed up exactly what I feel - I’m doing what I hate people doing with young players and making judgements too early mind you….but: For me I worry, based on his attributes, he’s at his ceiling already. He’s got pace (there’s some pacy RB’s out there too as standard though) but is not either beating his man 1 v 1 or getting in behind anywhere near enough (once last night?) - compare to Sykes last night, it’s leagues apart. This can improved though and coached better to get him in behind. Don’t doubt his finishing and when hanging around the back post he’s made some intelligent runs to get some good goals. I think he will end up being best utilised as one of 2 up top. The way Pearson uses him is not ideal and I wrote that last season too. I said it in the match thread it’s like playing with 10 men at times, the ball just bouncing off, over or by him, or him getting owned physically by defenders…and that will hold him back because he doesn’t make up for his lack of physicality and stature with anywhere near enough technical ability on the ball. I’m really sorry, I know it’s not a popular opinion, I’d love to be wrong, I love the player, the story and history - but just saying what I see.

Agree with all this - to be honest, my first post (continuation of transfer chat the other day on other thread TBH) was about what I ‘hope’ we do transfer wise and ‘hypothetically’ where I’d look to upgrade if we could. As you say, I can’t see it happening - but if the Scott sale has given us some wiggle room on budget - my hope is that SL can see the foundations that are in place and the potential in this squad with one or even 2 upgrades/additions. All ideal world speculation. But I stand by earlier statement that could well find ourselves short of quality in midfield this season and having runs of games where we’re getting overrun in the middle.

Yep all options - I’m talking about top 6 quality though. I look at that list you’ve got there and fit, not suspended and on form that’s fine - but I’ll have a little £1 wager with you now, that list won’t stay like that and I believe we could well feel very short and lacking quality there for chunks of this season. If McCrorie is out for season, TGH will be covering RB more. James, King and Naismith all similar but don’t have the athleticism and pace we’re missing in the middle. On paper it’s covered and in general I’m against padding the squad, but for me there are key attributes missing from our midfield options that if found could make a huge difference.

1) Main area I'd being looking is in centre-mid for another player that is strong and comfortable on the ball as a Williams upgrade. James (absolutely pivotal for us at the moment, so we need to keep him fit) needs more support in there getting a foot on the ball sometimes and allowing Knight to flourish. Still feel too often we can only control possession at the back and looking direct or by winning high and 'camping'. 2) Also IMO Bell and Mehmeti are off the top half levels at the moment. Cornick did well tonight, but it's battling more than quality. Don't know when Conway is back so i'd also be looking for another (admittedly hen's tooth) forward with power and goals. 3) You could say CB as the third, but how far off is Atkinson and Naismith did well tonight, so maybe not the priority IMO, look again at situation in Jan.

My main thoughts after tonight (if I was SL) are we are 2 or 3 real quality signings from being a very decent team indeed and i'd be getting the calculator and cheque book out. Also Naismith, Knight, Sykes and Pring excellent.

Well done lads - much improved and a good draw away from home from a game we really could, should have won.

Being facetious - Astonished Bell hasn't been subbed. To say he's been anonymous is being polite tonight.

Imagine if we were playing with 11 men

Hull starting far quicker than us, looked like they could carve through us and break our press at will and were rewarded with a deserved goal. Our players all over the place as they get the simplest of goals. For 5, 10 minutes we looked really poor, ragged. And then the game just seemed to slowly swing our way - 2 big chances go begging, Sykes (who with Tanner having some real joy down the right) poking over then Williams missing, sorry, but a sitter. Virtual open goal, blasted over from 12 yards. Then a real barrage from us, last ditch blocks and goal line clearances. Unlucky/really should be level with better quality. James and Knight very busy and having good halves - Vyner and Naismith stepping out well and generally marshalling well. Bell off at HT, perhaps Williams at some point too. EDIT - linesman?? Need to see that again.

@Davefevs and @Mr Popodopolous - so then, as you say, fascinating to see what happens now till the end of the transfer window....

Is it not also dependant on payment schedules? I.E Bournemouth didn't just direct transfer us £25m. Maybe £10m upfront and £5m for next two years? The add ons may a) never come b) take 2/3 years to see? I don't know how it works with the FFP accounting, but it certainly affects cash flow.

His record tells the truth. Very little touched has turned to gold unfortunately - which is why I don't understand why he's taken so long to get the right people in the right positions behind the scenes: As well as all the usual coaches and physio's and board of directors etc...where is the: Director of football? Technical director? Head of data/analysis? Head of performance? Director of recruitment? Individual people in the right roles, focusing on excelling in those roles. Some of these are only just coming into place. For far too long, one or two people have been doing the work of what 10 people do at top premier league clubs.

For me there's just too many questions that are not able to be answered by anyone on here to jump to some of the conclusions that have been made? Do we know for sure NP and the club are not discussing a new contract? What was the areas of the squad that were decided, by the club, to strengthen this summer? How many additions, did the club, decide we ideally need this summer? What is our current wage bill, why was that number chosen and how close our we to the limit of where that needs to be? In relation to 4, how are our accounts? Anyone actually had a look, not just guessing "x" has come in so we have "y" to spend. Why are we pursuing the now almost 2 year old plan of running in a more financially sustainable way? How does the club, and more importantly SL, define sustainable? What is our current injury situation? Who is out and when exactly do we expect them back? Anyone been told by SL what he thinks of NP? Anyone know the latest on any potential new investors? What are SL's real expectations this season? I mean I could go on and on - my point is these are all questions that have been asked, and answered on OTIB, as if gospel, in order to draw conclusions. It's all good discussion - on the face of it, maybe we've signed the players (in numbers) we want to sign, shifted some excess and slimmed down the squad to where we want it to be, hence no more signings - I haven't heard the club say we need x more players recently. In reality pretty much every player out has been matched back in, either through transfers or academy. Surely, just throwing more money at it, again, is taking a step backwards? Blow the budget again, don't go up and square one? Isn't the plan sustainable development, even if it's slower and takes a few years? Perhaps the club are, you know, dare I say, saving the money, to spread its use, rather than just splurging in a one week flurry?!

I don't agree with this - there is a huge amount that has been put in place that will stand us in good stead moving forwards for years. The academy, pathway, the ground, the HPC, transfer policy, balancing of the books to put us on a more sustainable financial footing. If the foundations are going to be swapped out, we're doing exactly what we should be doing frankly - bloating the squad, wage bill and pushing FFP and giving the manager a 4 year deal now would make it even harder for a new owner coming in.

There is a certain irony in this thread of the mixture of being angry with SL for 'not going for it' whilst also being angry with SL for 'going for it' previously. I think it's very easy to focus on the negatives at the moment, the reality is the cutting of cloth has been just that, a natural progression seen in the cycles of football clubs time and again - we've not got relegated, we've not defaulted on wages, we've not missed HMRC tax bills.....but reading some posts that's the sentiment. You can criticise SL for taking far too long to put certain structures in place at the club (finally done) or for some poor appointments. It's looking potentially now the LJ/MA project was his last big push for promotion, it didn't work - we've debated the whys and whats/could've/should've for years. But yet, here we are, still in the championship, still competing. My question is where next Mr Lansdown and the next few weeks will shed light when we read between the lines. One of my biggest criticisms of SL is a simple one: coming out every year with the 'expectation of promotion' chat. I can forgive most mistakes, this league is ruthless and ultimately you've got to make tough calls but setting those expectations every year when you've not got the plan or the investment isn't realistically competitive enough and you are simply relying on beating the odds - it's just crazy. It alienates the fans and shows your lack of understanding.

Any sense of going for it in the transfer market is out of the question. Another 1 or 2 shrewd additions, more likely. If, as discussed, SL is looking to sell the club, it will be much better to do so with a ‘cleaner’ slate FFP wise, therefore making it a more financially viable proposition for any future investor/owner. I think this is the thing that frustrates me more than anything, all this talk of top 6, but the reality is the playing squad is no where near in terms of investment and wages. So it’s the lottery again of can we be that one team that defies logic and all the odds to make the play offs or even promotion. Not looking like it quite yet this season.

Well, after weeks of chat and speculation and recently increased positivity and optimism, even talk from the club of challenging for the top 6 - well it’s a pretty sobering start to the season. 1-1 at home to a Preston team that looked physically and technically superior in most areas of the pitch - but more worrying was the lack of dynamism in our forward play - pretty much relying all game on direct plays which Preston countered all match (bar the long throw goal) - we were unable to ever build possession or pressure in their half, let alone final third - something Preston did to us all second half. Generally very poor in transition. Positives - Vyner and on the whole Dickie at the back - and for large parts we looked more organised and tidy defensively - but as Atkinson said (gave away) on Robins TV “you don’t have to be talented to do that, just committed” And that I think sums us up today - full of commitment but a lack of talent - what area(s) are we missing that talent? Specific areas of the pitch? Or tactically? I guess we’ll need to see some more games to find out. Easy to say, but Alex Scott a huge miss - We will need to go shopping after today - that midfield was lacking pace and power today. Doom and gloom, no - but put the champers on ice for now!

That team still feels like Pearson is mixing things up and getting minutes into legs more than anything. But....there are some clear patterns emerging of players often/always in same team/combinations though in his selections: 1) Bell and Wells - was and Cornick (swapped today) 2) Mehmeti and Conway - was and Sykes (swapped today see above) 3) James and Knight and Weimann (first choice midfield?) 4) Scott has been in the 'second' choice midfield of Williams (Meerholz today) and King Defence harder to read...but IMO he's paired Dickie and Pring this aftetnoon (likely left side option) and will pair Vyner and Tanner tonight (likely right side pair) although we'll see if McCrorie is back yet and they may change, my guess is he's out still.

Progress?!

Not sure I’ve read much scapegoating yet - but he’s had a bit of criticism. The issue for me is, some people are slightly still living in the past and keep expecting the marauding player we ‘thought’ we signed from Wigan to appear. I would love nothing more than for you to bookmark this post and throw it back in my face - but I think that ship might have sailed. IMO Williams is the kind of player you love having in the squad, as a personality and for his work rate but I don’t know if he has the attributes to be a key 40 game a season player in a top 6 team - which is where we’re ultimately aiming, right. That’s not to say it justifies being a scapegoat however.

I’ve picked McCrorie so far but not just because he is a ‘new signing’ He comes in with more experience and potential IMO - from what I’ve seen in the friendlies is the stronger defender and physically stronger, areas of Tanner’s game that need most work IMO - and more importantly attributes that the team needed to add and areas that needed to improve, especially with the attacking talent we do have, I would look for the stronger defender. Early stages I admit, but just my thoughts.

From watching 3 or 4 friendlies - at this stage I could only be ‘sure’ of 5, maybe 6 names of the starting line up at most at this stage: MOL - Vyner - James - Knight surely pretty nailed on. Dickie most likely LCB but could change with Naismith coming back. McCrorie - I’d imagine over Tanner and Pring over Roberts, although that’s tough on Roberts (wonder if we may see him played somewhere other than LB soon) You’d imagine Conway gets the nod, but very tough on Wells. Scott, will he be here? Presume not so who takes his place - Weimann or Williams - depending on where you want to see Knight playing more of the game. Probably Weimann. Bell vs. Mehmeti? Wouldn’t want to decide that. Sykes for me hasn’t lit up preseason yet and Cornick has looked good, surely breathing down Sykes’ neck. Fantastic to have so many options and this much competition for places.

Yep - classic “do the easy top and bottom then pretty much guess the middle” This league always throws up surprises, a couple will struggle that no one expects and a couple will be in the top 6 that no one calls early. Could be us as much as any of those top half predictions.

Well you’re presuming he’s taken a pay cut? We don’t know what Jay was on here and what Coventry are paying him - if it was a pay cut though, the signing club may well incentivise signing earlier with a sign on fee.