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Having just got hold of a Tableau license at work, I've been playing around at home trying to learn how it works - and as per usual that comes in the form of Bristol City stats. I've getting the stats and info for our games this season from the BBC Sport page and put them into some spreadsheets before throwing together some visualisations at the link below. Link to website At the moment it's pretty basic (I haven't done that much on making it look really snazzy!) and all I've got access to is your standard statistics (possession, shots, shots on target, etc). But I've put in things like the points total from this season and last season; and the respective league positions - something I've noticed a big thread about. The different sections are also linked, so if you click on a game that we've played, the summary stats will appear in the relevant boxes and the players box will update with the players that played in that game. Appreciate all comments about it - including what you think would be good to include on the page. Ideally I'd like to develop it to become a one stop shop for all your favourite City related stats (if I can get hold of some more interesting player related stats I'll put them in but I don't have access to that..). But at the moment it's just something I've knocked up as means of learning the software so hopefully it will get better throughout the season as I keep it updated and work out some of the more cool features. I've changed how it looks for mobile and tablet, so you should get different views depending on which device you use too!
Some of you might remember my post from earlier on in the season, where I compared not only our results after 11 games from both this season and last season, but also against the same teams home or away. Assuming every team improves over the summer transfer window, combining the two works as a nice way to see our what our performance is like this season relative to last season. I've kept the spreadsheet updated, and now seems a fairly nice time to post it, given we're now halfway through the season. I don't need to say how well we're doing, since that's fairly obvious, but it's nice to see just how far ahead we are on both fronts with massively improved goal differences too. I think it's also interesting that we can't seem to beat Preston at home or Birmingham away. Gaining points from the return fixtures - regardless of how well the teams are doing at the time - would be great. I'd love to see all the number in the gold column on the right, with either 0s or positive numbers in at the end of the season! Again, I'll keep this updated and post again in 10-12 games time for another comparison, and as ever I welcome all your comments. Have a great Christmas everyone!
Thanks for the comments everyone. I've uploaded this and my other two posts on the forum to here: http://statsandbcfc.blogspot.co.uk/ which I'll post to (as well as here) as and when I come up with my next bit of work. As a bonus image, here are all the averages stuck on the same graph. I've been compiling our results since June for the other couple of posts that I've done, so that part doesn't take too long. The moving averages was just a case of working out the best Excel formula to use to for the whole 43 game blocks - doing it manually for 3 or 4 is fine, but it would have been incredibly time consuming to do that for all of them! Creating the graphs and the gif took a couple of hours. I have access to MATLAB at work, which is what I used to create the graphs. I played around with it after I finished on Friday to try and get all the background information put on in the right place, then you create all the graphs at once, stick them on top of one another and that creates the gif! As being an Analyst is my day job, it's quite nice to put what I do at work to something that I find really interesting; and it's self-feeding loop, in that I taught myself a couple of programming things to make this which will probably come in use down the line at work. I'll happy deny that I am Mark Ashton, due to the lack of a mention of DNA in my posts!
TL;DR: I've taken a look at our form in the 79 league games since LJ took charge, from 3 games to 46, to see how often our current form has been repeated. It hasn't been repeated, and we are currently achieving the best patch of results since he took over, which is fantastic. You can also see how bad our run of results last Christmas was, and how it's affected our long-term points average, it's something that we've only just started to recover from - statistically speaking. __________________________________________________________ When driving home last week, I was listening to 5 Live, and at a break between the Roma v Chelsea game the commentator said something along the lines of, “And there’s been another goal at Craven Cottage, which way has it gone?” It then cuts across to the reporter who then says, “it’s another goal for in form Bristol City, 2 nil!” After the celebratory tap of the steering wheel, I kept thinking, “In form? But in our last three league games, we’ve only won once and that was away at Sunderland; and we were awful against Leeds!” That has inspired this post. What do we mean by “in form Bristol City?” Is it how we perform over three games? Six games? Ten games? Or even twenty? To do this, I’ve taken a moving average of the points per game (PPG) of every result since Lee Johnson took charge of City, scaled to the number of points we would get at the end of the season. This is to see at when we have performed best and worst (10 points if you can tell me when that was!) over a given period of time. I’ve taken this moving average from 3 to 46 games, to get a really good spread of “form”. I’ve made graphs for all of these, that also include: Promotion points over the last couple of seasons Playoff points over the last couple of seasons Relegation points over the last couple of seasons Markers for the maximum and minimum numbers of projected points we’ve achieved Rather than post each individual graph to here and have an overly long thread, I’ve made this gif that cycles through all the graphs, so you can see what happens as you add more games to the moving average. Along the x-axis is the number of league games we’ve played since LJ took charge. The y-axis shows the projected number of points we’d obtain over the season, if we maintained the points per game from the group of games selected. For example: The MA6 graph is a moving average of 6 games. If you get WWWWWW, you average 3 points per game and would get 138 points throughout the season. If you get LLLLLL, you would average 0 and get 0 throughout the season. After losing 6 games, you may win, so your form would be LLLLLW, giving you 3 points from 6 games. An average of 0.5 points per game. Having this over the season would mean you would get 23 points - still you would get certain relegation! To read these off the graph, find a game number on the x axis. This is the middle game in the set of games if the group is an odd number: Reading game 35 on the MA3 graph gives the average for games 34, 35 and 36 Reading game 35 on the MA6 graph gives the average for games 32, 33, 34, 35, 36 and 37. You can scale this up to 46 and this is why the graph shrinks as the MA goes up towards 46. When this season finishes, the MA46 graph would move up to halfway through this season. All of the graphs are in this album linked below, so you can have a proper look if you want, but the gif I’ve posted shows all of them in increasing order of games. I’ve also stuck all the results onto the end of the album. https://imgur.com/a/2uuH8 So what should you be looking out for? Some of the key points to notice when looking through them: The most obvious thing is that there’s a 20 game period, between 30 and 50 games, that not only includes “the run” but many games either side of it where we weren’t picking up many points, or how long it took for us to get out of the slump. After the MA6 graph, the maximum value hugs the right hand side and rarely changes from there, this implies that our best form is most recent. You can’t tell form from 3 games, as I tried to when listening to the radio. It changes so much that you can’t build a proper picture from it. I like the Gary/Lee Johnson method of look at 10 game blocks. That’s enough time to get a good feel for what’s happening and you can see from the graph that it’s just starting to smooth out - that’s getting rid of the variability that you get from the 3 game moving average. So to summarise: Without trying to open a can of worms, the run last season was that bad. However, given LJ has now been in charge for 79 games, a 20 game period of really bad form has in part, overshadowed all the good work either side of it, pretty much until now. City are now achieving their best results since LJ took charge - that is obvious. Not only over the last 5 or 6 games, but the last 20, 30 and 40 games. Our form in the last 12 games would see us as champions over the last two season and our form in the last 20 games would be enough to get us into the playoff for the last two seasons. The purpose of this was to take a quick look at our ever changing fortunes since LJ took charge. Hopefully you might look at the blocks of form, the 3-6, game periods that change massively over the course of the season (unless you're at the very top or bottom of the league) and think that it's only when you get towards 10-15 games that you get a real picture of how we're doing. Coincidentally, we're 16 games into the season and looking very, very good. Whilst this doesn't tell us anything new, it reaffirms what we've been thinking about how we're doing this season. I think that "In Form Bristol City" could quite possibly be here to stay for the whole season.
I think in order to get the whole picture you need to look at both of them together and not separately. Yes, we have had the same start as last season as @glos old boy, but the games that we've had have been tougher than those last season, so I think we do have reason to be a little excited. If that 7 is there all season, then we'd finish on 61 points, something which I think a lot of us would have taken at the start of the season - though probably not now!
Disclaimer: I've put this spreadsheet together over a couple of hours this evening, so I'm sorry if I've got anything wrong! Something I'm interested in is comparing how we did last season to this season, both in terms of the first 11 games we've played, but also against the equivalent teams from last season. The spreadsheet I've attached shows our results from last season put next to our results/fixtures from this season. The red box in the corner shows the points, goals scored, conceded and goal difference in the 11 games that we played this season and last season. It also shows how we performed against the same teams last season. I've put the relegated teams from the Premiership equal to the teams that went up last season, and the teams promoted from League One equal to those relegated to it. The key thing to take away from this is that we're 7 points better off in the same fixtures as last season, scoring 7 more and conceding 5 less. I'll try and keep this updated for the rest season and post the updates at various points over the coming months.