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Red & Gold

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  1. I don’t think the transfer window has helped. Things didnt seem to bad in Jan. Effectively we then signed 3/4 midfielders (TGH, Stokes, Bird, Twine), letting two arrive in the summer at the requests of their clubs. Given 3 of our current midfielders are out of contract in the summer (James, Williams, and King) coupled the apparent lack of contract talks, the message to those three would seem clear. You are not wanted by the manager/club but are being used as we couldn’t persuade Derby and Aldershot to let us have them in Jan. Prior to February Williams and James was playing pretty well, our form as a team was not too bad and morale seemed good - from what you can tell through interviews, body language on the pitch etc. It feels like that has gone. There is the argument that they need to play well for a new contract here or elsewhere, but it must be hard to fully engage with a coach encouraging you, praising you one minute and then signing your replacements whilst you are still here. Would you still listen to them, buy into their messages to the same extent. Not easy for Manning either. Similarly, i am not sure the interviews with Manning and Tinnion making it clear in public that we were and are still after a new striker (but couldn’t find the ‘right one’ in January) as we don't have the ‘type’ for Manning’s game plan will be good for Conway and Wells morale. Even if we do need that type perhaps best to manage the message to the players better and not make public comments. Felt like these were to appease the fans rather than what is best for the players.
  2. I just can't shake the idea that JL and Tins believe our squad automatically entitles us to be a promotion-chasing team or, conversely, that it's a sackable offense if we're not. Just because we believe that the squad has improved doesn't instantly make it a top-six squad, or further up the pecking order in league rankings. Other squads are also improving and when looking at the signings they are often signing players who, at least on paper, appeal as having a more reputable track records as promotion-chasing players than some of ours. The Championship is full of strong teams. Breaking it down, you've got the recently relegated teams with ample resources and large squads (how can anyone compete with clubs like Leeds and Leicester unless they make significant errors?), then you have those teams that no longer receive parachute payments but have larger budgets thanks to three years of prior funding. Alongside them, you've got those large clubs all vying and aspiring to make get to where they think they belong (e.g., Ipswich, Sunderland, and the like). Following them, you've got clubs like Millwall, Preston, and us - established Championship clubs with mid-range budgets that are generally competitive. There are very few small clubs with low budgets now. This makes for an intensely competitive and challenging league. Below, I've highlighted a few examples of teams and players that stood out to me when I looked through their squad lists. When you add these to teams such as Leeds, Leicester, Watford, and Norwich, it becomes clear how naïve some of JL and Tins' comments sound, especially when you take into account our own injuries. Birmingham: Ethan Laird, Dion Sanderson, Juninho Bacuna, Scott Hogan, Siriki Dembele Cardiff: Aaron Ramsey, Romaine Sawyers, Andy Rinomhota, Callum Robinson, Yakou Meite, Josh Bowler Coventry: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto, Ellis Simms, Milan van Ewijk, Callum O'Hare, Haji Wright, Liam Kitching, Bobby Thomas (they're spending £30 million this year) Middlesbrough: Dael Fry, Paddy McNair, Lewis O'Brien, Morgan Rogers, Emmanuel Latte Lath, Seny Dieng, Martín Payero West Brom: Darnell Furlong, Cedric Kipre, Jed Wallace, Josh Maja, Matt Phillips, Nathaniel Chalobah, John Swift, Adam Reach, Alex Mowatt, Ollie Burke Stoke: Ben Pearson, Lewis Baker, Tyrese Campbell, Dwight Gayle, Daniel Johnson, Wesley, Lynden Gooch Hull: Jean Michael Seri, Liam Delap, Aaron Connolly, Scott Twine, Rúben Vinagre I stopped looking, but I am sure we can all find God players at all the clubs. I'm not convinced that many other fans (nor managers), including those with promotion aspirations, would be content going into a season with the relatively inexperienced Tommy Conway, who, I rate hugely, as their first-choice striker, and a trio of Bell, Conway, and Sykes as a top three. I don't think many people thought our squad looked good enough, at least on paper, for a top-six finish, in comparison to others (even if it is our best squad for a while). Unusual for a fans base, I felt that we were realistic in our optimism - on paper, we're a midtable side, however, thanks to the squad's unity and positive direction NP was taking us in, there was always the hope that we might sneak into the top six. Credit goes to Pearson for putting us in this position, especially given the reduction in squad wages and reduced net spending. In contrast you look at Bristol Bears. There is a salary cap in the English prem but you are allowed two players outside of that. Bristol paid more than anyone else in the league for these two ‘marque’ signings- including paying one player the highest salary in the world (allegedly). So, it is safe to say that they have been the leading spenders for the last two years in England, or very close to it. The club had stated aims to be Prem champions and European champion cup competitors. However, the last two years have seen Bristol finish near the bottom of the league, underachieve (and also been rumours of discontent within the squad). Yet Pat Lam was and had not been sacked, yet when you compare his team’s relative performance to Nigel’s in their own context's, given the resources they had compared to each's own rivals and aims against final league placings, it makes Nigel’s sacking even more puzzling. I think in reality there have been hints from the start that SL didn’t really get on with NP (and perhaps Nige is not as good at managing up, or 'playing the game'). They never really spoke much and thus it was perhaps always a matter of time. SL's relationship to LJ certainly seems very different from the outside looking in, and at that time LJ was given a lot of money and opportunities to make mistakes. It would had been interesting to had seen how NP would had done if he had LJ's time in the role and money to spend on wages and transfers. We will never know. The talk of aggressive football, makes me think Nathan Jones could be the chosen one.
  3. Like nearly everyone else, I did not want Nige to leave, and I would have preferred him over nearly everyone on this list. However, I am surprised that John Eustace seems to be the reluctant best fit according to many (and looks like our board too), given our current situation and his current reputation. I understand that he did a commendable job at Birmingham under difficult circumstances. The club was on a downward trajectory, and there is no doubt that managed to add stability and start to turn them around. He did a decent job, and this year they appeared promising after having a bit more to spend. Clearly, he should not have been sacked considering the start they had and the declining performance since Ronney took over, has only seems to have further improved his reputation. However, he is relatively inexperienced and hasn't achieved much in his managerial career to rank him above so many on this list, in my opinion (which is just one perspective). In his 63 matches at Birmingham, he averaged 1.24 points per game (Nige was at 1.20 at City for comparison), which, over a season, would average out to 57 points and a 16th place finish based on last year's league point scores. It's decent considering where Birmingham started, but it isn't particularly exciting. I just feel that we need to exercise caution when making appointments solely because someone is the 'flavour of the month.' It's not too dissimilar to when the footballing world felt SOD was unfairly sacked at Nottingham Forest, which made him a more reputable appointment for us at the time (although, to be fair, he had a track record with promotions at Doncaster and Bournemouth in League 1). In comparison to Eustace, someone like Chris Wilder won four trophies at Alfreton Town, achieved promotions at Oxford, Northampton, and (two at) Sheffield United. Personally, Wilder would be my top choice from that list, not least because he is a 'coach' who plays exciting, attacking football and has a record of overachieving with teams. I think he would come here and has a point to prove after Boro (often when a manager is at their best). However, I mention him more to illustrate that we shouldn't dismiss someone because of one recent poor job has harmed their reputation, considering their entire career (just as we shouldn't overrate someone based on one good spell). I've had the opportunity to meet with the Argyle chairman several times. He is a great example of running a club within its means while still pushing it forward. They operate within a highly statistical and data-driven model. He once mentioned to me that, generally speaking, final table rankings tend to correlate with money spent on wages (excluding a few outliers). Therefore, considering our current financial model under FFP in comparison to teams with parachute payments, we are likely to finish between 14th and 7th most years. So, appointing your typical Championship manager (Rowett, Jones, Ainsworth, etc.) is most likely to result in us finishing within this range (as we have with NP). It raises the question again of why change? Our wage budget and spending won't change significantly in a league with so many financial powerhouses, therefore unless we adopt a different approach that sets us apart nothing will change much. So if we do want to push try and find a way to go up we need to try and find a way in which our method becomes an outliner. Looking at past examples, this could mean appointing a foreign coach with a different tactical methodology (e.g., the German model that achieved promotions at Huddersfield and Norwich, which was quite novel a few years back, and Martinez when he was at Swansea). Alternatively, a different analytical approach to recruitment (e.g., Brentford, Brighton, and Plymouth in League 1) might be the way forward. Lastly, we could seek – and hope to be lucky enough to find the next cutting-edge young coach (e.g., Rodgers at Swansea). I may be oversimplifying, and for every one of these success stories, there are two that fail (I guess in our case Mciness), but I believe we need an appointment that excites and thinking outside the box may be what we need. Perhaps finding a talented assistant/coach who has worked under the likes of Guardiola, Arteta, Klopp, or an overseas manager whose analytics demonstrate a tactical approach that outperforms expectations, or, if we opt for a young British coach, we shouldn't go for the cheap option but go all out for a Schumacher type. But, as I said at the start, I saw no reason to remove Nigel Pearson, and it feels unjust given the context and what he has done. I think it’s this annoyance, and seeing our past choices when recruiting managers (e.g. LJ, Holden and et al) that has compelled me to write this post as you just sense we won’t go into this with too much thought beyond, they interviewed well.
  4. Back in the day tough tackling midfielders were key to good compact teams but now its about players ability to to trigger press and cut of passing lanes off. We dont have the most physical or technical of teams in the league so I think we’ve been at our best when we have been on the front foot pressing aggressively forcing turnovers high up the pitch. Excluding Martin (not really played this year) we have a group of strikers willing to chase down defenders, and they still do, however, when we have a midfield 3 of Scott, Williams and James behind we can’t do this collectively or as a high block as only Scott really has the stamina and pace to do this repeatedly. It means Conway goes on his own or with tentative support from Wells and Scott however, teams can easily play around a press of 1-3 players. Thus they lose the faith to keep pressing and in some cases better to sit in a lower block shape as a result. However, When we have a midfield 3 containing at least two runners e.g. Scott, HNM or AW we can press high up the pitch in 5, swamping teams and passing lanes. I also thought Sykes was effective at this early on in the season. However, now we look too one pace with the ball and with the press. There is no point trying to press and not getting there in time which I think happens with Williams and James, thus we can become quite passive. I’m no expert but I thought WBA had a high line yesterday and did what we used to do to teams (at times) really well which is why we had to go long and why our midfielders couldn’t get on the ball. HNM is a bit of an enigma amongst our fans and no doubt his goal and assist output hasn’t been good but he was brilliant at this part of the game and it gave other players the confidence to go with him. Ive said it before but i do feel James or Williams need him alongside them oven their physical limitations.
  5. I felt we could really had done with his higher intensity pressing game last Saturday, which may have allowed us to get closer to players such as Howson. Williams and James (+ King) are a little more one paced, so even if Scott goes, we are not able to press in multiple numbers as intently, made worse if there are two games in a week, given their injuries and age. It will need to be target area in Jan and is perhaps a role Nige was refer to as a player with a bit more x-factor.
  6. All came from a terrible kick-off, where we went back to the keeper (something we never do) a rushed kick and pressure back on us. After conceding one we have to be professional enough to control the things we can control: readiness from kick off, pass quality from kick off, etc and see the game out. Hard after conceding so late and feeling the the world is against us at home but we have to be more professional than this. Shame as we worked pretty hard as a team so to get nothing is tough to take.
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