A couple of things to keep an eye on at the bottom of the table - I'm going to assume Pompey have at least ten points deducted on Friday, but this is what the situation looks like now:
* We're at the top of the mini league (home and away) of the bottom six clubs but we also have the fewest games left against other teams in the bottom six (Cov at home, Peterbrough & Forest away). We've only lost twice to teams in the current bottom six (Peterborough at AG and Cov at the Ricoh), so I'd say that Saturday's game is a 'mustn't lose'.
* All but one of Forest's five games against other teams in the bottom six have been away from home - they've still got to play us, Coventry, Donny & Millwall at the City Ground.
* Millwall have played against all the other clubs in the bottom six at The New Den but still have to go to Coventry, Donny, Forest & Peterborough. That could be a real problem for them.
* This is the first time that Peterborough have been in the bottom six all season. They've been in decline since Firework Night and haven't won since Boxing Day: they could be the team that gets dragged into the relegation battle.
IMO anything greater than 46 points and we'll be OK. Only three of the last 21 clubs to have been relegated from the Championship won more than 46 points. Alex Deacon's latest projection in the Racing & Football Outlook puts us on 49.78. A simple mathematical projection puts us on 47.53
However...if we don't go down this season, we'll be amongst the favourites to go down next season. To further confuse matters, we're still not mathematically out of the playoffs ;-)