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Everything posted by chinapig

  1. Am I right in saying that LFTs are far more likely to produce false positives/negatives as well?
  2. In the unlikely event that Ashton was not being economical with the truth, making it public was unprofessional at best. It certainly wasn't likely to persuade him to sign. I'm more inclined to believe Fammy. In the meantime some are pinning their hopes on SL loosening the purse strings, which I doubt. He may have said Pearson would be backed but he didn't specify what that meant.
  3. For that to work they'd have to be fake Dukla Prague scouts.
  4. Derby will take tough action and sack Richard Keogh again as he's obviously the guilty party here. Don't see why the fact that he is at Blackpool should make any difference.
  5. Arguably the two PL CEOs with the biggest egos are Woodward and Levy yet I cannot imagine even them indulging in a pre-match lap of honour. A level of vanity that is off the vanitometer scale.
  6. I see the BBC are reporting that the police have dropped the blackmail case and that Rooney no longer wants to pursue it.
  7. I can't imagine what he will do if they get promoted. An open top bus tour with just him on board perhaps. Though he might let Paul Cook drive the bus if he is a good boy and does what Mark tells him to do all season.
  8. Have Derby fans claimed he was fitted up by the evil EFL as part of the ongoing victimisation of their poor little club yet?
  9. Personally the only fear I have had throughout the pandemic is that I might be infected and pass it on to somebody who then died. I'm glad and not surprised you behave responsibly but please do think of protecting yourself. This article yesterday was heartbreaking. For some people, the moment the ambulance arrives is the time they start expressing regrets about not receiving a coronavirus vaccine. For others, it’s the death of a loved one. Healthcare workers and Covid patients have spoken out about growing numbers who, once faced with the serious reality of catching the virus, realise that they made a huge mistake. Dr Samantha Batt-Rawden, a senior intensive care registrar, said she had only come across one patient in critical care who had received both vaccination doses, and that the “vast majority” of people she was seeing were “completely unvaccinated”. Batt-Rawden said it was difficult to witness the look of regret on patient’s faces when they became very unwell and needed to go on a ventilator. “You can see it dawn on them that they potentially made the biggest mistake of their lives [in not getting the vaccine], which is really hard,” she said, adding that she had overheard people telling family members about their remorse. The patients who pull through are for ever changed – their Covid scepticism disappears once they have experienced time in intensive care, Batt-Rawden said. One patient who regrets not being inoculated is teacher Abderrahmane Fadil, who nearly died from the virus. Speaking from his hospital bed last month, he said: “At the moment I am Covid-19 positive … My road to recovery has been excellent and positive and I am looking forward to getting the jab as soon as I get out of the hospital. I advise everyone to get it. I for one am prepared to go to hell to get the jab, instead of waiting for the disease to devour each and every one of us,” he said. Glenn Barratt passed away in the Diana, Princess of Wales hospital in Grimsby after fighting coronavirus for weeks. The 51-year-old, from Cleethorpes, had opted not to have the vaccine. But his final words to bedside nurses and doctors were: “I wish I had.” His family has now urged others not to make the same mistake. Ken Meech, a cousin, said if his relative had been vaccinated, “he would still be with us today”. He told the Staffordshire newspaper the Sentinel: “I’m not a doom-monger or someone who’s telling you what you should do or not do. After all, we are supposed to live in a free world. But this is one of the saddest times of my life, losing my cousin, Big Glenn Barratt, to Covid.” Carla Hodges, 35, whose stepfather, Leslie Lawrenson, 58, died at home from the virus on 2 July and whose mother ended up in hospital, said it had been a big wake-up call on the importance of inoculation. Lawrenson did not believe in vaccines. “My mother did not have the vaccine either, although she had underlying health conditions such as diabetes,” Hodges said. She said her mother was now looking to get a jab: “She is very lucky to still be here … I know not getting vaccinated is a massive regret of my mother’s. She was embarrassed to tell hospital staff she had not had the jab.” Batt-Rawden said families often ask if anything could have been done to prevent the situation. “You know that there is something that the patient could have had which would have meant their life is not at risk, and it is a question we get asked a lot,” she said, adding that in some instances relatives have actively discouraged their loved ones from getting vaccinated. A lot of the misinformation came from social media, she said. Batt-Rawden said she felt guilty when patients came in and were not protected, as she thinks “we have failed them as a system and a country”. She said doctors will continue to speak up, advising anyone on the fence to get the jab. “The side-effects are mild … Listen to doctors who work in intensive care, because we are heartbroken every day and don’t want you to end up here.”
  10. Come now it was nothing to do with him, he said so. Presumably this genius, and the rest of them, agree with him.
  11. True that it might not be too difficult to eliminate variables that have little or no impact. My point was more that you need to be transparent about what you have done, how and why. And, importantly, what you cannot do. Then make sure the client understands the strengths and weaknesses of your analysis. As I'm on a roll with cliches, all models are wrong but some are useful!* *For the sceptics this just means you cannot eliminate uncertainty but you can reduce and quantify it.
  12. I should add that I'm with you on variables. Which is why I stress to clients that statistical analysis is an aid to decision making not a magic bullet. You cannot remove the need for expert knowledge and judgement, however much the client wants the analysis to make their decision. As the saying goes: Data is not information Information is not knowledge Knowledge is not wisdom.
  13. So we're coming from different perspectives, you as a computer scientist me as an analyst. Calculation of statistical probability based on so called big data is common across all sorts of businesses, sciences and public bodies. Although some of those who do it like to create a mystique to big themselves up it really isn't rocket science. Nor does it require any particularly sophisticated software. I would find it rather a dull thing to analyse but it would be easy enough to do in say Python or R. Though I wouldn't want to stump up for the data! Possibly they don't publish their code for commercial reasons though I see that as a lame excuse personally. But as the saying goes, big data is the new oil!
  14. The facts here are the data sets of actual games, about as factual as you can get. But if it's pointless we had better let every major and not so major club in the world know they can sack their analysts.
  15. I think you may be too focused on the word algorithm. I could create some calculations now just using Excel formulas and call it an algorithm to make it sound clever but it really isn't. The calculations are simply statistical probabilities based as I say on massive historic data sets of what actually happens.
  16. They don't decide. It is based on a massive amount of data covering what actually happens over time.
  17. Yes, as is often the case with statistics, it's the trend that is informative.
  18. Or celebrating goals. So pretty low risk to our fans then!
  19. This is such an important point not just re vaccines but more widely. There is a serious lack of knowledge among politicians, journalists and the wider population about risk and uncertainty. Anybody who wants to educate themselves can watch videos by Sir David Spiegelhalter on YouTube. Very good communicator, both interesting and entertaining. Of course there is the alternative of drawing conclusions based on no knowledge. Which an awful lot of people seem to prefer.
  20. It seems increasingly that boosters will be required. With sufficient coverage, around 85% with the Delta variant, and any subsequent boosters, we should reach a reasonable level of immunity. The unknown is as usual whether further variants will evolve that vaccines are not effective against. With a high level of vaccination this is less likely. Flu kills thousands a year in this country though so is not a trivial thing.
  21. Correct me if I'm wrong but your objection seems to be to vaccine passports. There are legitimate objections from both the left and right of the political spectrum - I see the Labour party has come out against and a number of Tory MPs have publicly opposed them. Personally I'm not keen on requiring them by law though I accept individual businesses should be free to decide their own policies. None of the legitimate objections relies on conspiracy theories though, which is where we part company.
  22. As I said, you can hold any opinion you choose even if there is no evidence to support it. But you can't make factual claims without supporting them with evidence. Like claiming the BBC did not report the protests for example. You can hold an irrational view that there is a world wide conspiracy between governments, epidemiologists, the entire medical profession, the media and others but you may not get much traction without the evidence. To quote another long standing saying, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
  23. Odd then that I have read about the protests in London, Sidney and Paris on the BBC website and other outlets. If you are going to make claims you need to support them with evidence. As the saying goes, you are entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts.
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