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Mr Popodopolous

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Everything posted by Mr Popodopolous

  1. Would you look at that @chinapig @Hxj @downendcity @Davefevs Thought Mel had them on strings, you know. Still under Embargo it would appear, or with very tight restrictions at the very least. Pretty interesting Tweet as well...some kinda plea-bargain I wonder- I'd be looking at this line of enquiry were I the EFL. I'd also be offering Reading a deal whereby they can sign players under EFL terms and conditions, in exchange for an immediate deduction and financial targets for the coming season.
  2. That Millwall one was a shocker wasn't it. @archie andrews think the Ipswich one was 2011. Fancy that, home games to open the season 2 years in a row, ie 2010 and 2011- fairly woeful 3-0 losses each time!
  3. Ultimately can't particularly abide Real Madrid so of the two, always preferred Atletico somewhat. Used to quite like Barcelona, lots of youth, Unicef on the shirts- not support but quite admired but they seem to have changed a lot. A guy from Barcelona as their manager too, from their way of playing...probably glossed over some of the worse bits but that was them a while ago but no longer. Ah- a friend of the stars, indirectly! Did you ever meet Mr. Gil? From what I read he liked firing managers to say the least... Still in touch with some of the Gil family then? Wonder if you can ever get cheap tickets to take in an Atletico game! Think they lost something when they left the Calderon, new ground looks less atmospheric but seems the way with a lot of new grounds everywhere tbh.
  4. Sevilla and Villarreal two others- believe they're quite well run clubs yet bet they aren't getting a huge amount from this. Yeah, they are definitely making an effort- bit of a puff piece of course but there has been restraint and I think they (Real Madrid) coming to the end of a cycle and will show that restraint for another year and look to go again more in 2022 subject to Covid. https://www.realmadrid.com/en/news/2021/07/14/real-madrid-c-f-closes-the-2020/21-financial-year-with-a-positive-result-of-874000-euros Says 295m euros in cuts when we include gross transfer fees in, ie net spend/profit, wages and Operational savings in 2 seasons...they'd be wise to hold and wait another year IMO.
  5. Tottenham have a similar debt pile I believe, lots of big clubs have big debt piles. Ah I see what I've done, I've got debt and net debt mixed up with Real Madrid- that's gross debt, I skim read and saw net debt of 46m euros. Real Madrid much better financially placed than Barcelona but not looked in depth for a while.
  6. Not having a dig at anyone on here but the irony of some Villa fans complaining a) About others and their spending b) FFP c) Claiming it's no longer a thing... https://www.villatalk.com/search/?q=ffp&updated_after=any&sortby=newest
  7. Indeed they can't- if you think EFL are restrictive, in some ways you ain't seen nothing yet- when you qualify for either competition, UEFA FFP is 30m euros (plus allowable costs) over 3 seasons...no Fixed Asset Profits for FFP either. Just ask Wolves- they breached it partly due to EFL season ands have to achieve a strict 3-year breakeven as part of their Settlement Agreement. Could change of course, but as it stands that one is even more restrictive by certain metrics than even the EFL one.
  8. From memory, it was £29-30m aggregate loss in the EFL over 2017/18 and 2018/19 for Aston Villa- that'd be the FFP loss. 2019/20 saw a £99.4m loss in the PL but obviously £16-16.5m in Allowable Costs, £4.2m loss due to Covid, and £36.1m of Deferred Revenues. Deferred Revenue is the interesting bit there, cannot be counted as a loss surely if deferred, or double counted- simplest way might be to halve for FFP purposes and stick £18.05m in 2019/20 and the same in 2020/21. Before it's halved and averaged. £99.4m -£4.2m -£16.5m Perhaps £99.4m-£20.7m/2=£34.35m. It's been a while since I delved into it in detail, but deferred revenue- it'll be benefited from in 2020/21 or just halve it for FFP purposes...can't write it off as a cost to be excluded in Year 1 and benefit in Year 2. Fairest solution is to halve and allocate it equally for FFP purposes, or the simplest anyway- all the Revenue and Costs would be added and halved anyway. Would mean that an FFP loss exceeding perhaps £16m in 2020/21 would mean excess Losses- subject to the year of the Grealish transaction of course. Swiss Ramble had their 3 year loss fwiw to 2020 before obviously the rollup etc as £64-65m, or £3-4m over limits.
  9. Was one of the theories out there but seemingly not- I would though take issue with the Stadium Sale and leaseback given the fact it was listed as a Current Asset, a Receivable- yet the Receivable in the typical timeframe of a Current Asset had not yet been paid or received. Technically, the FFP Rules are the same, save for the differing loss limits so there's no real reason why both sides shouldn't enforce for each other. Does it work that way in practice though? Maybe a joint Body is needed either with or above the PL and EFL to enforce it properly...a Governance body to oversee the overall Governance of issues that the two Leagues interpret differently- something like, oh I don't know- the FA. For example, under it AVFC probably wouldn't have been able to spend quite as much as they did on promotion, or might have had a Soft Embargo applied on Promotion while proper investigation took place. The idea being the Regulations- save for the loss limits which vary in the two divisions- are identical regardless of the division, and if a Soft Embargo is applicable due to doubts, it is applied regardless of Promotion or Relegation. In the EFL, I expect that Clubs would have to sell the player first and then sign- so far it's been Buendia, Bailey- and now from nowhere, Ings- before the sale has gone through entirely. Their Accounting period ran until 31st May 2021, they can't backdate Grealish into there unless it was in their projections to 2021, so it'd be very interesting to know how the period to 2021 looks- unless as I say it was forecasted prior to May but taking place in August- ie a deal in place. Sarr, Tuanzebe and Cantwell have also been linked- if Grealish goes for £100m then it all falls into place but if not...
  10. Real Madrid small Profit in a Covid hit season- not sure they're the basket case, also seem to have been focusing on cutbacks and debt being paid down based on an early summary of 2020/21 Accounts, some headline figures I saw anyway.
  11. Was going to add this to the Covid Sports thread but seems pertinent here too. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2021/08/03/efl-clubs-fear-pingdemic-will-lead-steward-shortages-seasons/ Would need to be voted on in Parliament surely- someone on here who shall remain nameless seems to love the idea of a relatively needless policy like this but anyway... Mentions some kind of link between Vaccine Passports and attendances/capacity allowed.
  12. I'm interested in this bit in particular- it depends what you mean or what someone means by replace I suppose. If you mean replace to a lesser but still nonetheless decent standard then very much so, if you mean replace like for like then financial levels don't necessarily permit it for clubs- see Bournemouth, they made a lot more cuts than input. My estimate is that 2019/20 relegation would have seen a £52.5m Upper Loss Limit on return following roll-ups etc...sure that could've got very interesting even with Parachute Payments. The Upper Loss Limit being the sum total of Championship x 3 and PL x 1, added up, /4 and then x3. EFL behind you? I mean £72m to 2021 and £88.5m to 2021/22- clearly if Grealish goes that's that FFP discussion wise. If he doesn't then that Upper Loss Limit is inclusive of time in the EFL, which is why it isn't yet £105m.
  13. Barcelona I'd suggest the following course of action for: Sign the frees and leave it at that. Offload some more fringe players if possible. Look at cost savings in other areas. Look to restructure and speed up repayment of debt where possible. Bayern a few years ago paid Stadium debt 15 years early or similar.
  14. Barcelona's position is more the debt structure from what I can see- or has been anyway, they ran at tight margins even prior to Covid- possibly reflected by La Liga slashing their allowable wage budget, but not technically loss making- huge debt pile and a lot of it was short term...they need a serious restructure for a few years IMO. Not really looked into this story much, the CVC-La Liga link, wonder what CVC will be extracting in return. Barcelona especially, would be best advised to use the cash/lifeline wisely and restructure over 2-3 years as then they'll have headroom to bounce back quicker and stronger. Just accept a few years of meh.
  15. Good to see stepped up monitoring on the way at last- Reading. "Can't afford to give Laurent a new deal"- ouch. They know what they need to do/needed to have done. There was a deadline of 30th June 2021 in their case, Accounts wise- they needed to sell or show proof that there was an agreement to sell by that date, to sell players in order to fill the FFP hole- they did not, even if Olise had been then £8m wouldn't have resolved the issue in itself. Little more on Fulham, couldn't add it to the last post. SwissRamble calculations...their upper limit remains £72m as it was last season, all depends what they lost in the PL as that added to Championship and halved. One thing for sure, had they stayed down in 2019/20, trouble might have arisen and if they don't go straight back up this time likewise.
  16. Misleading headline info perhaps I assume all clubs will get something from that kinda deal. Real Madrid are in a much better financial position than Barcelona- they actually made a small profit in 2020/21 and cut their net debt...I expect they're in a bit of transition and waiting for Summer 2022 to make a push for one of Mbappe, Haaland or maybe both.
  17. Fulham I do have to wonder about their compliance or otherwise- in theory £72m with the rollup, plus allowables plus Covid exclusions should be fine for this season, albeit not by much... https://cottageanalytica.com/2021/07/25/fulham-and-financial-fair-play/ https://cottageanalytica.com/2021/08/01/ffp-limits-better/ Swiss Ramble's estimate for 2019/20 was a bit higher btw, they lost £45.2m but £7m in the usual Allowables, he reckoned £15m in Promotion Bonuses which are excluded of course and maybe £2m to Covid? Can't recall fully...this estimate has £20m Promotion Bonuses and £4m to Covid. The Author's tweet in this thread reckons a £10-20m cost saving or similar- Profit on Transfer most likely- needed in 2021/22. Sold nobody of note yet... Stadium loophole now shut of course....should've added Training Grounds and perhaps Profit on disposal of Fixed Asset profits verbatim. Though I can't see at all how they lose so much last season in the PL once Covid Costs factored in.
  18. I forgot about that- was very fortunate, arguably dented Sheffield United's chances of a European push too, momentum etc- they take a win into the run-in and who knows if the momentum carries them into the Europa League. Either way, the odds are incredible- missed because the tech wasn't switched on correctly and I forget why VAR didn't get involved. Forgetting Sheffield United for a moment, Bournemouth went down by 1 point with a superior GD- not that I have any great sympathy given that they too breached FFP on the way up under the old system but the luck bit is incredible.
  19. I've no problem, you sell Grealish and you invest- like Leicester and Wolves, thought they would invest a bit more this summer given past big sales (see Jota and some others last summer) and a good loss limit now in Season 4 of PL but that's their lookout. If you keep Grealish and you spend the amounts you do without significant other player profit sales to compensate then there would be questions- if you sell Grealish, then it's case closed.
  20. Profits from what I've heard of Ground sale and leaseback now excluded from FFP calcs, unsure if this is also applicable in the PL...if they were in the EFL I'm sure Parry would take a tougher approach than Harvey did. This is it- and given Everton are seemingly under restrictions I'm sure Aston Villa wouldn't be immune had they added Tuanzebe, Buendia, Bailey- and linked with a certain Tammy earlier in the summer- but kept all key assets including Grealish.
  21. We can probably close the book on this somewhat, unless there's a massive twist and Grealish stays. Having to sell a prize asset from their academy is partial satisfaction but one wonders the size of the firesale had they missed out in 2019 or dropped back in 2019/20...that loss limit would've been £52.5m heading into 2020/21 without the scramble to the finish line and survival late on.
  22. The poster I quoted suggested 28, I went with that number as a starting point. Small squad is fine and I think 24-25 is generally the optimum number but we already have multiple players who are either injured or not fully fit. Cundy, Maasengo, Williams, Semenyo. It's a tough and unforgiving League however Forward aside, there are usually good loan options out there, are you confident in Simpson at RB were Vyner to get injured? Of the clutch of young players who got their chance in the final couple of months, Scott yes, Edwards? Well he was injured but yes, Pring? Well he will be back up LB and is 23 so yes. The rest? How many are ready yet.
  23. Loan with an obligation, not really a thing here but perhaps Covid has moved the dial. Serie A, been known of there for a few years. Thinking about it, seen it in the Championship a few times too. Certainly not PL to PL though.
  24. Worry it's just too many, too soon- but perhaps I'm a bit risk-averse. If it's a midtable season of building with some decent football and some decent results, and clear signs of progress- in that scenario a Cup run can be pretty welcome, it would be good but 10/28 from the Academy...feels too high, straight in, depending on the precise definition of the 10 youngsters, ie who they are- what age, experience etc. Think a lot need good development loans but time will tell.
  25. Just watched the highlights Dave put up- not necessarily through crossing tbh, but we did create chances. Didn't take them though...plus the goal for Aston Villa's 3rd, ball was out, we were possibly denied a pen or 2 as well- you'd hope to get at least 1 of the attempts we had! Bentley did a poor job on their 2nd too- but better Saturday than during the season. I've also watched back their 3rd several times, could be a trick of the light, but have to wonder if it hit El Ghazi's hand in the buildup. Can't pinpoint exactly but somewhere between 2:58-3:04. Think ball was out of play at point of being crossed and potential for an offside as well. If Weimann was offside in 2019- extremely debatable- then El Ghazi looks similar here when the ball played. Irrespective of even the above points, I thought we created some good chances, some neat football for sure- made errors wouldn't expect, so best to eradicate now and on balance 3-0 was harsh.
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