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Baldock Today


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We are where we are cos of our defence, not our attack! How's that for a fact? My eyes back up my theory, as do the stats, as does our league standing. If we had a watertight defence, missed chances would barely be a talking point. And we'd be sitting pretty in the top half of the table. Still let's have a go at our strikers on course for 20+ goals this season.....

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We are where we are cos of our defence, not our attack! How's that for a fact? My eyes back up my theory, as do the stats, as does our league standing. If we had a watertight defence, missed chances would barely be a talking point. And we'd be sitting pretty in the top half of the table. Still let's have a go at our strikers on course for 20+ goals this season.....

Thank you for clearing that up, John. So, as the first line of defence, can we land one on Sammy Baldock for not closing down the oppositions lumbering central defenders properly?
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Thank you for clearing that up, John. So, as the first line of defence, can we land one on Sammy Baldock for not closing down the oppositions lumbering central defenders properly?

I think you could rough him up a bit if you choose. Just no nasty stuff!

In all honesty though, I think SB works his cotton socks off for the team. Lots of selfless off the ball movement and running the channels. But yes he has weakness's. But I think he'd also walk in to most teams in this league.

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I highly doubt it! He's not that sort if character.

More likely saying "******* get in" or something along those lines.

 

I'm more sure it ended in "off" than I am it started with "****".

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Match of the Day is to blame. People have got used to watching highlight packages where the top scorers put away every chance that comes their way. The reality is that even the likes of Suarez and Aguero only have a 25% conversion rate yet people on this thread are arguing with complete sincerity that Baldock should be putting away 40% of his shots (comments about doubling his tally).

Only 2 of the top scorers in L1 have a better goalscoring ratio than Sam yet he is being described as an average L1 striker. Do people even know what average means? In terms of goal ratio if Sam was average then L1 only contains 3 or 4 strikers. In terms of goals scored if Sam was average then L1 must only contain 13 or 14 strikers.

There's probably around 100 strikers in this division that will be used at some point, Sam is distinctly above average. Yes he will miss some real howlers but so does every striker in the world, we just don't see them miss them every game as we are not there or watching their game live on tv.

 

I rarely watch MOTD, my assertion that Baldock should have doubled his tally is based solely on the chances I've seen him squander.

 

He's had a plethora of easy chances this season - certainly not just one on ones - and he has notably failed to take far too many.

 

When comparing him with others I couldn't say whether any other striker in this division has had so many easy chances and failed to take them, but I'd doubt it, because the number he's had would be extraordinary for any striker, even in a much more successful team

 

Certainly it's hard to think of a City striker in the last 45 years with a comparable catalogue of misses because we've almost never been a high chance creating team. Liam Robinson springs to mind, but even then he wasn't doing air shots from 5 yards out, or often missing the target completely.

 

I think it was 'Harry' who listed a large number of Baldock's misses a few weeks ago and of course there are quite a few more to add even in the last few games. Perhaps he could do an update? 

 

I'd look at it that there are half chances, good chances, and gilt edged 'really should score most of them' chances, and it is in the latter catagory that many of Baldock's notable misses fall in to.

 

Even allowing for the fact that all forwards miss chances it's bemusing to think there's anyone out there who truly believes his total shouldn't be far higher on the quality of chances afforded to him.

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I rarely watch MOTD, my assertion that Baldock should have doubled his tally is based solely on the chances I've seen him squander.

He's had a plethora of easy chances this season - certainly not just one on ones - and he has notably failed to take far too many.

When comparing him with others I couldn't say whether any other striker in this division has had so many easy chances and failed to take them, but I'd doubt it, because the number he's had would be extraordinary for any striker, even in a much more successful team

Certainly it's hard to think of a City striker in the last 45 years with a comparable catalogue of misses because we've almost never been a high chance creating team. Liam Robinson springs to mind, but even then he wasn't doing air shots from 5 yards out, or often missing the target completely.

I think it was 'Harry' who listed a large number of Baldock's misses a few weeks ago and of course there are quite a few more to add even in the last few games. Perhaps he could do an update?

I'd look at it that there are half chances, good chances, and gilt edged 'really should score most of them' chances, and it is in the latter catagory that many of Baldock's notable misses fall in to.

Even allowing for the fact that all forwards miss chances it's bemusing to think there's anyone out there who truly believes his total shouldn't be far higher on the quality of chances afforded to him.

Surely strikers are judged on the goals they score? Not the ones they miss! Or would we be better off with more clinical striker that scores less goals?
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Although some are bemoaning the use of stats, these stats are 'blind' to what type of chances these strikers have had. Therefore, to say Baldock misses more 'gilt edged' chances is irrelevant when comparing him against the likes of Wells etc. How many 'great' chances have others missed? Yes it's frustrating, but Baldock is definitely good enough for this league, and shows passion and commitment too.

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Surely strikers are judged on the goals they score? Not the ones they miss! Or would we be better off with more clinical striker that scores less goals?

 

Those who don't see them will judge them on statistics, those who do will make up their minds on the evidence of their own eyes.

 

Um, yes John, we would be better off with a more clinical striker on this season's evidence.  :blink:

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Surely strikers are judged on the goals they score? Not the ones they miss! Or would we be better off with more clinical striker that scores less goals?

That's what the Pro Baldock group always pull it back to the amount he's scored so far, No one has actually said that the amount he's scored isn't good, It is.

I just feel he could have a bag tone more because of the opportunities he's missed many if them are sitters and cost us points, Just like we don't like conversion stats the Pro side don't like Point facts

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I would like to see some statistics balancing the quality of chances we've created this season against other teams. I can't remember us creating this many good chances, or our strikers having as many one-on-ones for a long, long time. Chance conversion percentages & goal tallies on their own only tell half a story.

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You also need to get in positions to create chances. Many others would not even be close. He will score 20 plus this year, if our defence stopped leaking soft goals we would be in the playoffs. Watch the Karl Robinson interview, he seems to think Sam is quality. Of course a City fan would prefer a striker who gets 6 goals a season, taken from 6 chances. Now that is quality hey boys , lethal. 

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I think it was 'Harry' who listed a large number of Baldock's misses a few weeks ago and of course there are quite a few more to add even in the last few games. Perhaps he could do an update? 

 

Read this: http://thenatchwall.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/must-do-better.pdf

 

20 clear cut chances missed including an astonishing 12 one-on-ones. No wonder Baldock himself has been very self-critical.

 

It's not just the type of chances he's missing though, it's the timing of them - often early in games, the important ones.

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Those who don't see them will judge them on statistics, those who do will make up their minds on the evidence of their own eyes.

Um, yes John, we would be better off with a more clinical striker on this season's evidence. :blink:

My point, as I am sure you are aware is- a more clinical striker May actually not score any more goals. And might actually score less. SB is creating many chances by his astute movement both on and off the ball. It is quite possible another player wouldn't even get into the same scoring positions.
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That's what the Pro Baldock group always pull it back to the amount he's scored so far, No one has actually said that the amount he's scored isn't good, It is.

I just feel he could have a bag tone more because of the opportunities he's missed many if them are sitters and cost us points, Just like we don't like conversion stats the Pro side don't like Point facts

On the flip side, how many points would we have without his goals? Why aren't you bemoaning are lack of goals from midfield and defence as vehemently? Or does it not fit the agenda?
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On the flip side, how many points would we have without his goals? Why aren't you bemoaning are lack of goals from midfield and defence as vehemently? Or does it not fit the agenda?

 

There have been plenty of threads moaning about our defence for goodness sake. Not sure how anyone can defend Baldock's finishing. He's not sniffing out a chance and getting on the end of the ball in a crowded box, he is missing clear chances that you would expect any striker to take, or at least get a higher conversion rate than he does. You can go right back to the second game of the season at Northampton against Coventry, he missed 2 clear and 1 half chance before Coventry scored, they of course took the first sniff they got and every subsequent sniff after that.

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On the flip side, how many points would we have without his goals? Why aren't you bemoaning are lack of goals from midfield and defence as vehemently? Or does it not fit the agenda?

Because Only at Swindon have I seen a midfielder or Defender miss as opportunity to get us points, Baldock has squandered many chances at crucial times

The point I'm making is that Baldock misses easy chances at crucial times, He could have 30 this season with the one's he's missed but more importantly we could have more points on the board

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Don't think anyone denies JET is talented, he also very lazy defending. Watford on Tuesday we were defending as a team of 10, he did NOTHING defensively.

I can understand why Baldock is getting stick but at the same time he HAS rescued us a point today. If he finished every chance he got he wouldn't be in a relegation scrap in League 1. Whose to say if he'd scored the first one, he wouldn't have been marked tighter / given more attention and had the rest of his chances stifled?! Who knows, the whole dynamic of the game changes.

What we do know is 1 player doesn't cost us a game. Yes he's missed chances but if he scores in the first half and we don't concede we win? It's the defense that needs to be looked at!

At least SC is aware and plans to work on his finishing in training. Let's keep our fingers crossed and remember, we've got two very capable strikers and a team creating plenty of chances.

These are the salient points-that both these players would be holding down first team positions-successfully,at a higher level..as a league one pairing they will achieve 40+ goals this season which is of course a very good return-it's the team unit that has been the problem and to a lesser extent still is.the new boss appears to be getting to grips with it so lets get behind him and the team as we dont look the soft touch anymore..
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Read this: http://thenatchwall.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/must-do-better.pdf

 

20 clear cut chances missed including an astonishing 12 one-on-ones. No wonder Baldock himself has been very self-critical.

 

It's not just the type of chances he's missing though, it's the timing of them - often early in games, the important ones.

An interesting read, that (thenatchwall piece). And one way of looking at this situation. Here's another way of looking at it:

1. Any away game, or any game for that matter, where we score four, the attack have done their job. It's up to the defence then to do theirs.

2. One v. One's are not always "easy" or "gift-wrapped." There is usually a big bloke getting in the way, able to use every part of his anatomy to stop you scoring. Plus a big lump bearing down on you. Your time is limited. And you have a decision to make, quickly (hit it now; get a bit closer; take it round him; near post; far post; dink it; dummy; oh look, Dolly Marie is laughing at me already; this one's for everyone on Otib, etc). But also enough time for your mind to undo things, for example, reminding you of the fact that you have missed a couple of these chances already and it has become a talking point. So, when you need to be calm and cool, you find yourself panicking a bit and just hitting, perhaps too early, and hoping. Wrong decision. It's easier when the ball is squared across the six yard line and there is no time, no need, for any decisions to be made, just get a foot on it and power it towards the net. Instinct. No thinking. No mind games (with yourself). One v. One's are a bit like penalties, as much about what is going on between your ears as down there with your feet. You have to smile when people say, how can you miss from 12 yards? Go take a few, find out.

I know it's his job, but he seems to have lost the knack with these. There are forwards better than Sam at one v one currently, but many of them have other deficiencies in their game that we would all be scrutinising even if they were tucking away more "easy" one on ones.

My beef with Sam yesterday was him saying, "I'm not someone who heads a ball a lot." It looked like it Saturday! But was he saying, I don't get to head the ball much in games (because of my height, the way we play etc) or I don't head the ball a lot, full stop. IE don't even practice? I'm sure Sam practices one v ones, but the worry is there is no sign of any improvement. Which suggests the practice isn't right. Practice never makes perfect, but it should reduce the imperfection. I would guess that the problem is in Sam's head with this (and I'm not on about heading practice here. Although, that wouldn't hurt either....)

That's just my take on it.

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There have been plenty of threads moaning about our defence for goodness sake. Not sure how anyone can defend Baldock's finishing. He's not sniffing out a chance and getting on the end of the ball in a crowded box, he is missing clear chances that you would expect any striker to take, or at least get a higher conversion rate than he does. You can go right back to the second game of the season at Northampton against Coventry, he missed 2 clear and 1 half chance before Coventry scored, they of course took the first sniff they got and every subsequent sniff after that.

You have mis read what I have said. My point is we have scored v few goals from either our midfield or defence. And yet nobody seems to be making this an issue. Without Jet or SB we would really be in the shit. We can all see how many he has missed, yet I feel he has done extremely well to have scored as many as he has in a struggling team. If he scores 20+ goals for us this season are we really going to chastise him for it? He scored two goals against the Dons, should have been enough to win us the game. It's our defending that is letting us down. We aren't going to score 3 every game.
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Just another thought on Sam's view of himself as "Not someone who heads a ball a lot." That would appear to be part of his psychological make-up, how he sees himself, the sort of footballer he is. So, over comes the ball on a Saturday, and here is Sam, and somewhere in his conscious, or sub-conscious thought, Sam's telling himself, as he meets the ball with the goal at his mercy, "I'm not someone that heads the ball a lot." Woops.

So, next time Sam runs in on goal, just the keeper to beat, what is running through his mind? "I'm someone who misses these a lot," ??

Methinks Lansdown Snr might do well to invest a few bob in someone to work on the between-the-ears stuff. But someone top drawer, not one of the "League One" sports psychos. I reckon Baldock is intelligent enough, sufficiently at ease with himself, to be open to this?

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Read this: http://thenatchwall.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/must-do-better.pdf

 

20 clear cut chances missed including an astonishing 12 one-on-ones. No wonder Baldock himself has been very self-critical.

 

It's not just the type of chances he's missing though, it's the timing of them - often early in games, the important ones.

Sums up my thoughts perfectly, delighted he's scoring goals and getting into positions, but he is one hell of a frustrating player

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Read this: http://thenatchwall.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/must-do-better.pdf

 

20 clear cut chances missed including an astonishing 12 one-on-ones. No wonder Baldock himself has been very self-critical.

 

It's not just the type of chances he's missing though, it's the timing of them - often early in games, the important ones.

Thanks KITR - some good reading for BRISTOL86, TRL and one or two others there.

 

So, 22 clear cut chances not taken. Not one on ones - 12 of them, not 22. ( Although Harry only seems to have counted one against MK.) This figure of 22 was seemingly an exaggeration used as an excuse by some determined to defend him because no one expect strikers to score every one on one. We expect them to score SOME of them though, even if they occasionally have to change their finishing tactics after being put through when their predictable finish has failed consistently. 

 

Anyway let's say we accept he'll miss almost 70%, but can reasonably expect him to score a third - that's 4, plus the other 10 clear cut, gilt edged MUST score chances.

 

That's a further 14 in total, and explains very clearly why many of us truly believe he SHOULD have doubled his tally this season.

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Thanks KITR - some good reading for BRISTOL86, TRL and one or two others there.

So, 22 clear cut chances not taken. Not one on ones - 12 of them, not 22. ( Although Harry only seems to have counted one against MK.) This figure of 22 was seemingly an exaggeration used as an excuse by some determined to defend him because no one expect strikers to score every one on one. We expect them to score SOME of them though, even if they occasionally have to change their finishing tactics after being put through when their predictable finish has failed consistently.

Anyway let's say we accept he'll miss almost 70%, but can reasonably expect him to score a third - that's 4, plus the other 10 clear cut, gilt edged MUST score chances.

That's a further 14 in total, and explains very clearly why many of us truly believe he SHOULD have doubled his tally this season.

I read it. Do you think he has scored some one on ones? If he has missed 12 how many one on ones has he scored? I noticed these stats were left out for some reason. Likewise the easy chances missed. How many easy and not so easy chsnces has he finished out of the 14 scored. All good and well giving a one sided view. I'll take more interest when he catalogues the goals scored and goals setup to give a more balanced view, thank you very much noggers :)
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I read it. Do you think he has scored some one on ones? If he has missed 12 how many one on ones has he scored? I noticed these stats were left out for some reason. Likewise the easy chances missed. How many easy and not so easy chsnces has he finished out of the 14 scored. All good and well giving a one sided view. I'll take more interest when he catalogues the goals scored and goals setup to give a more balanced view, thank you very much noggers :)

 

Well 2 of his 14 have been pens so that leaves 12 from open play. I can only think of 2 one-on-ones he's scored - at Tranmere and MK.

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Thanks KITR - some good reading for BRISTOL86, TRL and one or two others there.

 

So, 22 clear cut chances not taken. Not one on ones - 12 of them, not 22. ( Although Harry only seems to have counted one against MK.) This figure of 22 was seemingly an exaggeration used as an excuse by some determined to defend him because no one expect strikers to score every one on one. We expect them to score SOME of them though, even if they occasionally have to change their finishing tactics after being put through when their predictable finish has failed consistently. 

 

Anyway let's say we accept he'll miss almost 70%, but can reasonably expect him to score a third - that's 4, plus the other 10 clear cut, gilt edged MUST score chances.

 

That's a further 14 in total, and explains very clearly why many of us truly believe he SHOULD have doubled his tally this season.

 

 

Regardless of how easy the chances are in your mind though Nogbad, do you seriously expect Baldock to have 26 league goals at this stage of the season? That is Messi or Ronaldo territory.

 

I agree that he should have "some" more as should other strikers in the world (including JET - 1st minute on Saturday anyone?) but good strikers still miss gilt-edged chances, they have done ever since I started following football & they will do long after I turn to dust.

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