2 Points A Game

[Loderingo]

Normally 2 points a game will win you league 1 and 1.85 will get you promoted in 2nd.  With half a season gone we have 4 teams around the 2 points a game mark:

 

CITY - 2.08

Swindon 2.04

Preston 1.96

MK Dons - 2.00

Bradford -1.57

Sheff U - 1.66

 

Compare with the Championship

 

B'mouth - 2.00

Ipswich - 1.91

Boro - 1.79

Derby - 1.83

Watford - 1.71

Brentford - 1.66

 

and League 2

 

Shrews - 1.91

Wycombe - 1.91

Burton -1.87

Luton - 1.83

Newport - 1.74

Southend - 1.70

Plymouth - 1.61

 

Looking at the three leagues 3rd and 4th in our league are doing better than 1st in league 2 and 2nd in the championship.  Bradford are 5th in our league but wouldn't get into the playoff zone in either of the other two leagues.

 

What this tells us is that the other 2 leagues are much more competitive than ours.  Our league has 4 excellent teams and an awful lot of mediocre teams.  Looking ahead, normally 90 points is enough to get promoted.  Last year 87 was needed, before that 80 and before that 92.  This year I think we might need 95 points to be sure, which would mean getting 47 in the 2nd half (one less point than in the first half of the season).  I certainly don't think anyone outside the current top 4 has a chance of getting auto.  The current odds of winning league 1 are as follows:

 

CITY - 9/5

MK - 10/3

Preston - 7/2

Swindon - 4/1

Sheff U - 40/1

 

For promotion it is:

 

CITY - 5/11

MK - 7/10

Preston - 3/4

Swindon - Evens

Sheff U - 5/1

 

I think these are fair odds.  As the best supported of the big 4, we should have the biggest budget within the SCMP limits for Jan reinforcements.  I think we are also less reliant on one or two outstanding players than some of the others (Deli Ali)