General Election 2015 Match Day Thread (Merged)

[Calculus]

Indeed, I've also recently become something of an anorak over the polls and started checking out various predictions as well (May 2015, Guardian Poll Projection and Election forecast.co.uk). The projections all seem to suggest the Conservative party will narrowly get more seats than labour, however, Ed Miliband will likely end up as PM due to the support of the other parties (SNP, Plaid, SDLP, Greens, Respect etc) who will (supposedly) never support a Conservative led government.

I too am an anorak on this stuff and even do analysis for one of the parties. If you'd like to torture yourself a bit more look at the methodologies employed by the various polling companies and in particular the way they treat 'don't knows'. Most of the information I've seen has the DKs at anything between 20 and 30%. These numbers are never reported in headline polls. Some polls just ignore them so the %s you see reflect only those that expressed a preference. Some other polls allocate DKs based on their likely vote - which can be based on their answer to a question asking which way they voted previously. In times past polls usually turned out reasonably accurate. This time, with more options available, this calculation might not be so accurate (IMO).

My conclusion to all this? Not a clue - anything could happen. My hunch is that the Conservatives might do a little bit better than expected as polls always under represent them slightly - some people vote Tory in the privacy of the ballot box but don't like to admit to it. Also possible that as the day nears the smaller parties might get squeezed and the Lib Dems might recover.

One thing I would say to anybody who fancies a punt is that the odds for Cameron being the next PM seem very generous. Currently best odds are 11/8 with Ed favourite at 4/6. This despite the fact that the Torys are favourites to take the most seats although not as many as Labour and SNP combined. If this turns out to be true Ed has said he won't do a formal deal with the SNP. If that is the case Cameron will be the first one asked to form a government as the largest party and put forward a Queens Speech. This would almost certainly fail, with the Palace then asking Ed to have a go. A Labour Queens Speech would more than likely get through, leaving Ed as PM, but only after Cameron ' s had a go. 11/8 for Cameron looks like free money to me. Then again, could easily have this wrong, so don't rely on my advice.

[Red-Robbo]

I too am an anorak on this stuff and even do analysis for one of the parties. If you'd like to torture yourself a bit more look at the methodologies employed by the various polling companies and in particular the way they treat 'don't knows'. Most of the information I've seen has the DKs at anything between 20 and 30%. These numbers are never reported in headline polls. Some polls just ignore them so the %s you see reflect only those that expressed a preference. Some other polls allocate DKs based on their likely vote - which can be based on their answer to a question asking which way they voted previously. In times past polls usually turned out reasonably accurate. This time, with more options available, this calculation might not be so accurate (IMO).

My conclusion to all this? Not a clue - anything could happen. My hunch is that the Conservatives might do a little bit better than expected as polls always under represent them slightly - some people vote Tory in the privacy of the ballot box but don't like to admit to it. Also possible that as the day nears the smaller parties might get squeezed and the Lib Dems might recover.

One thing I would say to anybody who fancies a punt is that the odds for Cameron being the next PM seem very generous. Currently best odds are 11/8 with Ed favourite at 4/6. This despite the fact that the Torys are favourites to take the most seats although not as many as Labour and SNP combined. If this turns out to be true Ed has said he won't do a formal deal with the SNP. If that is the case Cameron will be the first one asked to form a government as the largest party and put forward a Queens Speech. This would almost certainly fail, with the Palace then asking Ed to have a go. A Labour Queens Speech would more than likely get through, leaving Ed as PM, but only after Cameron ' s had a go. 11/8 for Cameron looks like free money to me. Then again, could easily have this wrong, so don't rely on my advice.

I think thou spaketh the truth, Calc.

My hunch is that the Lib Dems will do a bit better than the national polls would suggest. They certainly won't win any new seats - barring some weird voting split somewhere - but a lot of their incumbent MPs are hard-working constituency representatives and are popular in their locality.

I see the Tories winning southern and midlands seats, but not making that northern breakthrough they've talked about, and doing very badly in London, Wales and Scotland.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

I think thou spaketh the truth, Calc.

My hunch is that the Lib Dems will do a bit better than the national polls would suggest. They certainly won't win any new seats - barring some weird voting split somewhere - but a lot of their incumbent MPs are hard-working constituency representatives and are popular in their locality.

I see the Tories winning southern and midlands seats, but not making that northern breakthrough they've talked about, and doing very badly in London, Wales and Scotland.

Constituency level polling, mostly from Lord Ashcroft, shows very well that Lib Dems are doing better than the national polls suggest and this is especially so in seats where Conservatives are the nearest challenger.

One seat which the Lib Dems may win is Watford - last time it was a 3 way marginal and it remains so. The local council is run by the Lib Dems with a good majority and the parliamentary candidate is the popular sitting mayor who has won the last 4 elections, most recently in 2014 with 45% of the vote (Labour were a distant 2nd with 25% in that contest). Whilst the Conservative candidate is felt to have done a good job, Watford seems to have many of the same factors which are counting against the Conservatives in London, including an electorate which is younger and more diverse than the country as a whole. The last lot of constituency level polling was done at the end of 2014 and it showed Lib Dems and the Conservatives within the margin of error, with Labour just behind. If the Lib Dems are going to gain amywhere, it will surely be here.

[Red-Robbo]

Constituency level polling, mostly from Lord Ashcroft, shows very well that Lib Dems are doing better than the national polls suggest and this is especially so in seats where Conservatives are the nearest challenger.

One seat which the Lib Dems may win is Watford - last time it was a 3 way marginal and it remains so. The local council is run by the Lib Dems with a good majority and the parliamentary candidate is the popular sitting mayor who has won the last 4 elections, most recently in 2014 with 45% of the vote (Labour were a distant 2nd with 25% in that contest). Whilst the Conservative candidate is felt to have done a good job, Watford seems to have many of the same factors which are counting against the Conservatives in London, including an electorate which is younger and more diverse than the country as a whole. The last lot of constituency level polling was done at the end of 2014 and it showed Lib Dems and the Conservatives within the margin of error, with Labour just behind. If the Lib Dems are going to gain amywhere, it will surely be here.

Good knowledge there SGR!

Maybe that'll be the exception to the rule, although I've noticed that in places where Lib Dems run the council, the Tory vote often rises due to exasperation with local government.

Same will probably stop the Greens from taking one of the other two Brighton & Hove seats. Caroline Lucas is popular, but the Green-controlled council isn't.

[marshy]

Wouldn't Stalin be rather keen on Putin, Marshy?  They do after all, share some of the same modus operandi and ideology. Putin loyalist town administrations are actually resurrecting statues of the mass murderer these days.

 

But that's by the by, I don't disagree with any of your first par at all.

 

You lose me a bit on the second one though. Socialists "like large organisations" is a sort of analysis that would earn an F in any politics exam paper you'd care to mention. It won't have missed your keen observation that the mass anti-EU movements in Greece, Spain and Italy (to name but three) are coming from the radical Left.

 

That's a rather provocative response to my post Robbo, I didn't realize they were being graded these days. Maybe I could have upped the grade if I'd submitted the rest of the essay and at the same time avoided a left wing marker.

 

I won't dwell on it as the thread has moved on but just to say that I would give your observation on Putin a 'U', possibly upgraded to 'G' for the use of that classy Latin expression 'modus operandi'. Far too mainstream an observation and lack of supporting 'evidence' other than the comment that there still exist in Russia supporters of Stalin. Well, blow me down with a feather, there are no doubt still supporters around of those other well known, large state, lefties Mao, Hitler, and Pol Pot; to name but three.

 

Smear by association, something the BBC is very good at as they strive to influence, yet again, the outcome of the election. Witness the subtle attempt by Norman Smith to associate the nasty party's apparent wish to reduce the size of the state with the days of 'The Road to Wigan Pier'.

 

With regard to your comment on the anti-EU movement my 'keen observation' is that, if they did but realize it, these southern European movements are not really protesting about the EU but rather the EZ and the common currency. It is this enforced internal devaluation brought about by this vast financial experiment that is bringing these countries to their knees. With their old currencies back they would be perfectly happy within the EU. Yes, and before you mention it, I am well aware that the majority of Greeks wish to remain in the Euro. Unfortunately they have a meagre grasp of basic economics and that well known Greek hubris to overcome.

 

Anyway to comment on the election! I have decided to vote with my heart rather than my head so it's UKIP for me rather than gritting my teeth and voting Tory, (I live in a marginal), in an attempt to keep out the poisonous Milliband and his dominatrix, Sturgeon.

 

Basically our electoral system is not fit for purpose. How can it be right that a projected combined vote of around 20% for Greens and UKIP can return just one or two MPs if they're lucky whereas only 5% of the total electorate in Scotland can win 50+ seats?

[Kid in the Riot]

Smear by association, something the BBC is very good at as they strive to influence, yet again, the outcome of the election. Witness the subtle attempt by Norman Smith to associate the nasty party's apparent wish to reduce the size of the state with the days of 'The Road to Wigan Pier'.

 

Er...when it comes to "smear by association" I think the right-wing media in this country would rightly be crowned Champions.

[BCFC Jimmer]

There are a lot of stupid people in this country and parties like UKIP are exploiting it.  They have found a way to get poor people to vote against their own interests.  UKIP are to the right of the Tories so if they had any power, life would get even worse for the working class.

 

How do they get people to vote for them? Blame everything on foreigners! Works every time.

 

In a way it doesn't even bother me.  People will get what they deserve for their own ignorance.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Er...when it comes to "smear by association" I think the right-wing media in this country would rightly be crowned Champions.

 

Undoubtedly but I have to say the BBC don't help themselves.

 

I am not a Farage/UKIP fan I think he and they are chancers, but last week on newsnight all of the main leaders were interviewed and during the Farage interview not once but 3 times Farage was asked to explain some baffling twaddle spouted by UKIP council candidates for various constituencies and I have to say having watched all of the interviews Farage was correct in his reply, something along the lines of "I have watched all of the interviews with all of the leaders so far and none of them have been asked this question to explain some of the extreme views expressed by their candidates" and I have to say he is correct, there have during this campaign been some outrageous comments by tories, labour, lib dums, greens and especially SNP candidates but none of the leaders were asked the same question.

[Portland Bill]

There are a lot of stupid people in this country and parties like UKIP are exploiting it. They have found a way to get poor people to vote against their own interests. UKIP are to the right of the Tories so if they had any power, life would get even worse for the working class.

How do they get people to vote for them? Blame everything on foreigners! Works every time.

In a way it doesn't even bother me. People will get what they deserve for their own ignorance.

The only people I have personally come across that say they will vote ukip, are people who work in the same place as me.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's simply an anti Polish vote.

[BCFC Jimmer]

The only people I have personally come across that say they will vote ukip, are people who work in the same place as me.

The only conclusion I can come to is that it's simply an anti Polish vote.

 

I also think a lot of UKIP voters have been brainwashed by right wing media who have vastly exaggerated the problems caused by immigration.

 

Some of them have never actually lived in areas with high immigration so don't even know what its like.  They are just scared of the uncertainty of having any 'foreigners' (starting to hate this word) turning up in their town.

[The Batman]

[Esmond Million's Bung]

it's simple for me, Ed could seal the deal and make his party electable (in their own right) today, just announce that the first thing on the agenda will be, only English MP's will be able to vote on English matters, to give English people the same rights as those in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

[Red-Robbo]

[The Batman]

[Red-Robbo]

It's a strange one the BBC. You see many Conservative voters who say that they are to the left of Karl Marx and then you get many Socialists who claim they are Right Wing Ultra-Fascists.

Very true. Folk see what they want to see.

Years ago I did a job for them in complaints, and it was not uncommon to get emails from both Tories and Labour saying the same report had unfairly favoured the other side!

To be honest, it did my head in that job. I was glad to ship out and start working on red button and iPlayer and other less contentious projects.

[JM91]

Yep, the "left-wing" BBC - you know, the one that has had Tories as its last two chairmen , a Tory as its political editor (Nick Robinson), a Tory in the chair of its flagship current affairs programme (Jeremy Paxman), a Tory as its head of editorial policy (Craig Oliver, now Cameron's spin doctor) and has recently had one its political correspondents leave to take up a similar post for UKIP!

[Red-Robbo]

Summarises the problem with British politics, people are either one or the other. There are very few who look at the facts and the plans of each party and instead just vote for the same coloured tie every 5 years. No constituency should be "safe" that isnt democracy that's several area's of autocracy.

Indeed and that's why I am for proportional representation, JM.

We have to overcome our fear of coalitions and compromises though.

[The Batman]

Very true. Folk see what they want to see.

Years ago I did a job for them in complaints, and it was not uncommon to get emails from both Tories and Labour saying the same report had unfairly favoured the other side!

To be honest, it did my head in that job. I was glad to ship out and start working on red button and iPlayer and other less contentious projects.

[JM91]

Indeed and that's why I am for proportional representation, JM.

We have to overcome our fear of coalitions and compromises though.

For the record, so am I.  However it would undoubtedly spell the end of the United Kingdom.

Scotland, as the most privileged of the four nations, is already moaning, imagine what they'd be like if it was actually a fair system.

[Red-Robbo]

For the record, so am I. However it would undoubtedly spell the end of the United Kingdom.

Scotland, as the most privileged of the four nations, is already moaning, imagine what they'd be like if it was actually a fair system.

[chipdawg]

For the record, so am I. However it would undoubtedly spell the end of the United Kingdom.

Scotland, as the most privileged of the four nations, is already moaning, imagine what they'd be like if it was actually a fair system.

If the Scots want independence, they'll get it eventually, regardless of the electoral system. At least with PR the rest of us will get the same level of political representation that the Scots now enjoy

I would actually go further than PR and have a 'federal UK' with regional devolution in the regions of England as well as in Scotland, Wales and NI

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

We just have to accept that if they continue to overwhelmingly vote for independence it'll happen. No way to avoid it, no matter who the British PM is.

When have they overwhelmingly voted for independence? As far as I am aware they have had one vote recently (the independence referendum last year) which voted against independence. Most recent polls actually show support for independence continuing to fall, possibly linked to the oil price fall.

[marshy]

[chipdawg]

Oh dear, we do seem to have touched a raw nerve. No need to take it so personally when someone takes a pop at your chums in the BBC. One could be forgiven for thinking that you might have a personal interest in the Beeb continuing as our state broadcaster.

By the way did I say any such thing as the section highlighted in your post? Further misrepresentation.

Last Wednesday I spent the afternoon in Gloucestershire in the company of four elderly ladies, lifelong Labour voters, one 94 the others in their eighties, who have already switched their postal votes to UKIP from David Drew, Labour. 'My husband will be turning in his grave' one of them said. Reasons given were, the way Farage had been hounded by supporters of ''that horrible Sturgeon woman'' and by those Green lefties (in Kent?) but primarily because of the way he had been treated in the so-called 'challengers debate' on the BBC. Not given a fair hearing was the unanimous verdict, we felt 'really sorry for him!' As Farage said 'the real audience is at home'.

Farage's little tantrum on the challengers debate was petty and childish. It's not really surprising that the audience was dominated by 'left wing' voters because every party present was allocated a proportion of the audience and every other person on that stage was a fair way to the left of UKIP. It would have been far less fair to have half the audience as Eurosceptic UKIPpers just so Nigel didn't get booed. But of course that's a big part of the schtik isn't it? Play the pantomime villain to demonstrate how anti establishment our public school educated, former city banker Nige is. All the while he's appealing to a demographic who hark back to the days of the establishment. Of course, those elderly ladies have earned the right to vote for whomever they damn well please, having contributed to British society through a world war and more decades than I've been alive and as much as I dislike UKIP and especially Farage, I wouldn't disparage them or anyone else for voting for the party they feel represent them best

[Esmond Million's Bung]

[Red-Robbo]

When have they overwhelmingly voted for independence? As far as I am aware they have had one vote recently (the independence referendum last year) which voted against independence. Most recent polls actually show support for independence continuing to fall, possibly linked to the oil price fall.

They are overwhelmingly voting for a pro-independence party. Support for independence has soared since the referendum and lots of Scots think they were conned into voting no.

[Red-Robbo]

[Red-Robbo]

Do you know what I agree with you up to a point, but as I pointed out earlier it was evident that Evan Davis in his newsnight interview of the leaders did ask Farage 2/3 questions about quotes from I believe UKIP council candidates, but none of the other leaders were asked similar questions about the more outrageous uttering's from their ranks and all parties have their candidates with extreme views but only one leader was brought to book over it, in the interest of fairness the interviews of the leaders should have been structured in a similar way and I don't believe they were.

To be fair, UKIP do have a higher proportion of "fruitcakes" than most. The "gays cause flooding" man, the Bridgwater UKIP bloke with his Nazi regalia, the Thanet "I don't like black people's faces" woman etc etc etc...

Before Marshy gets all upset again. I should point out that I think there is nothing nutty per se about UKIP's political position. It's a point of view. One I don't agree with, but the idea that it is a "racist" party or whatever is, I think, wrong.

I just think as a fledgling political movement it's grown faster than the party infrastructure allowed and it's made some unwise choices with some of the people it allows to be candidates. There's a difference between being refreshingly un-PC and being a loony.

[Stoke_Gifford_Red]

They are overwhelmingly voting for a pro-independence party. Support for independence has soared since the referendum and lots of Scots think they were conned into voting no.

A quick look online shows that the most recent 3 polls (from Yougov, Panelbase and ICM) all show NO behind YES.

I would hardly say they are "overwhelmingly" voting for a pro-independence party, latest polls show it is just over half voting for the SNP and half voting for the combined unionist parties (Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems). I do a lot of work in Scotland and several people I know are planning to vote for SNP even though they don't want independence. The reason being they recognise this is a UK based vote and they would like to be in the situation where there is a Scotland based party calling the shots as they think it will lead to benefits for Scotland.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

To be fair, UKIP do have a higher proportion of "fruitcakes" than most. The "gays cause flooding" man, the Bridgwater UKIP bloke with his Nazi regalia, the Thanet "I don't like black people's faces" woman etc etc etc...

Before Marshy gets all upset again. I should point out that I think there is nothing nutty per se about UKIP's political position. It's a point of view. One I don't agree with, but the idea that it is a "racist" party or whatever is, I think, wrong.

I just think as a fledgling political movement it's grown faster than the party infrastructure allowed and it's made some unwise choices with some of the people it allows to be candidates. There's a difference between being refreshingly un-PC and being a loony.

 

of course but the BBC/Evan Davis could/should have had a set agenda of questioning about policy and not nutty outbursts from council candidates/supporters.

 

I briefly saw a quote from a labour party activist saying that the Rotherham scandal was a far right myth, that's inappropriate I would suggest.