Tinmans Love Child Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 So 4 points clear of Blackburn with 15 up for grabs, couple of scenarios: Best- we beat QPR and Blackburn lose, we are 7 points clear of Blackburn, meaning we beat them and we are safe. Worst- we lose to QPR and Blackburn win, we are 1 point ahead and then Blackburn beat us putting us in bottom 3 with 3 games to go Middle- we match Blackburns result on Friday then play them safe in the knowledge that whatever the result we are at least 1 point ahead with 3 to play meaning we still only need to match their results at worse to stay up Any of these scenarios are possible obviously, but it shows how fine the margins are still. The QPR game is massive for us I think but I'm confident we can win it as home form has improved a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 In the mean time Wigan are winning all their games and we go down with Blackburn. Que sera sera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 I agree. A lot of optimism on the forum and almost a sense of relief and expectation of survival but there's no doubt we are still 'on the ropes'. What we do have is more than one bite of the cherry by being 4 pts clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Just now, Tinmans Love Child said: So 4 points clear of Blackburn with 15 up for grabs, couple of scenarios: Best- we beat QPR and Blackburn lose, we are 7 points clear of Blackburn, meaning we beat them and we are safe. Worst- we lose to QPR and Blackburn win, we are 1 point ahead and then Blackburn beat us putting us in bottom 3 with 3 games to go Middle- we match Blackburns result on Friday then play them safe in the knowledge that whatever the result we are at least 1 point ahead with 3 to play meaning we still only need to match their results at worse to stay up Any of these scenarios are possible obviously, but it shows how fine the margins are still. The QPR game is massive for us I think but I'm confident we can win it as home form has improved a lot If we go into the Blackburn game with either a 5 or 7 point gap on them (and Wigan/the dropzone), I'd be delighted to just draw with them and keep that going into Barnsley at home - I'm not hugely confident in that happening, but I'd be delighted if we could avoid needing something going into the Brighton game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merrick's Marvels Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, samo II said: If we go into the Blackburn game with either a 5 or 7 point gap on them (and Wigan/the dropzone), I'd be delighted to just draw with them and keep that going into Barnsley at home - I'm not hugely confident in that happening, but I'd be delighted if we could avoid needing something going into the Brighton game. That doesn't bear thinking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
archie andrews Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 2 more wins and jobs a good un In my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Just now, archie andrews said: 2 more wins and jobs a good un In my book This. Would mean Blackbum getting 10 points from 5 games (11 including goal diff maybe) to overtake us which would be top 2 form. Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
One BCFC Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 There is no doubt our home games favour us. Avoid defeat at Blackburn and win 1 home game should see us just about safe. Do not write us off at Brighton, they could already be up by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old_eastender Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 After the Huddersfield game, even the most cynical were thinking the only way was up, then 2 pathetic displays and we were looking like a side going down again. So, as welcome as the win was, still very much in the balance as OP says. In LJ we DO NOT trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B block Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Tombola needs to tell the players come hell or highwater we have to beat qpr, forget Blackburn and the draw just get those 3 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Red Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 The mood seems to change by the week on here, solely dependent on results (leaving aside longer term issues such as the manager's position). That midweek before Huddersfield when Blackburn and Burton had good results in their games in hand had half the forum chucking the towel in, then we beat Huddersfield and other results went for us and suddenly we were probably staying up. Then the shambles of Brentford and Preston had us definitely going down again, before this weekend’s results have meant it's changed again for the better and many of the same people who had us virtually relegated last week are now talking about safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashton_fan Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 If we win the 2 Easter games we are guaranteed to be at least 7 points clear of Blackburn with only 3 games left. If Blackburn lose on Good Friday we'll be 10 clear so couldn't be caught. Given that Blackburn have lost their last 3 and their last win was 8 games ago (a 1-0 home win over Wigan) can't see them winning all their remaining games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snufflelufagus Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 1 hour ago, BA14 RED said: There is no doubt our home games favour us. Avoid defeat at Blackburn and win 1 home game should see us just about safe. Do not write us off at Brighton, they could already be up by then. Brighton could be up yes. But I'm sure they'd still want to get promoted as champions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1953 Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Try working it this way: http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator2.php Pick the bottom half a dozen clubs and predict all the results for them. City will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dullmoan Tone Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 29 minutes ago, 1953 said: Try working it this way: http://www.thefishy.co.uk/calculator2.php Pick the bottom half a dozen clubs and predict all the results for them. City will be ok. But surely the whole reason we love this division is you simply can't predict the results, anyone who tried to predict the last 3 results for, say, Huddersfield, Burton or Newcastle results would have looked like a muppet by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1953 Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Dullmoan Tone said: But surely the whole reason we love this division is you simply can't predict the results, anyone who tried to predict the last 3 results for, say, Huddersfield, Burton or Newcastle results would have looked like a muppet by now. That is true.......but it was aimed more at the moaners who are full of doom and gloom. Whichever way you guess the scores it doesnt look bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 sad news boys the fat lady has yet started to warm up let alone sing if we are lucky we wont hear her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Every twist and turn just gets magnified more and more the fewer games that are left. Our defeat at Brentford suddenly seemed ten times worse when Burton stuck in a 96 min winner at Huddersfield. Our win v Wolves felt so much bigger with Blackburn (to me) unexpectedly losing. Indeed since they conceded a 90 min equaliser at home to Preston, they have lost the last three. Oddly the bookies have always favoured us. Before the last round, when in my mind it was 50/50, they had us at 3-1. Now it is a pretty big 9-1 to go down. As a City fan it does not feel that way! Easter is clearly massive for us. We have a little leeway, but the reverse on Friday of the last round, with us losing and Brentford winning and it is back to three brown ones in our shorts time. Equally, just about possible by Monday night we are safe in the Championship. It is coming down to home form, where ours is I think better than most of those around us. To use the cliche, just have to focus on our form, one game at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offside Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 It's still very much in the balance. We are so unpredictable. I felt confident after the Huddersfield game that we'd be ok, but then the Brentford and Preston games provided a reminder of how abject we can be. I'm worried about the Blackburn game, especially if results don't go our way next weekend and they are in a position to catch us. Plus our away form is terrible. With a 4 point cushion my head says we should scrape through. My heart isn't certain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityred exile Posted April 10, 2017 Report Share Posted April 10, 2017 Looking at it from BLACKBURNS point of view they will be wanting bare minimum of 4 points from the easter games v city and the florist , and actuaully need to win both there games to overtake us due to our goal -dif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 This isn't just us and Blackburn. Forest, Burton and Birmingham are all in the mix. There might be a significant chance that the 3rd slot team will begin with B? I suspect after Monday, things will be a lot more clearer about how this is going to play out - I'm hopeful that it will be favourable for City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerseybean Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 Agree with bcfcfinker that although Blackburn appear to be team to stay above all sorts could still happen, unsurprisingly according to this article Blackburn's next two games (Forest and us) are 'must wins': http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/2016-17/blackburn-rovers-tony-mowbray-3667643.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerseybean Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 5 hours ago, cityred exile said: Looking at it from BLACKBURNS point of view they will be wanting bare minimum of 4 points from the easter games v city and the florist , and actuaully need to win both there games to overtake us due to our goal -dif They are talking six points: http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/2016-17/blackburn-rovers-tony-mowbray-3667643.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bs3 Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 A word of warning. Do you recall the gas beating Wycombe a couple of season ago thinking they were safe and celebrating like they won the FA cup, and than a week later! Its not over till the fat lady sings and complacency could be our biggest enemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 6 points from 5 games gets us to 50 points, which is a reasonable, if not definitive, guideline for safety. 3 of those games are at home against perfectly beatable sides. It may not be certain by any means but if we're relegated we'll have put in the kind of show over the last 5 games that absolutely deserves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrizzleRed Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Jerseybean said: Agree with bcfcfinker that although Blackburn appear to be team to stay above all sorts could still happen, unsurprisingly according to this article Blackburn's next two games (Forest and us) are 'must wins': http://www.rovers.co.uk/news/article/2016-17/blackburn-rovers-tony-mowbray-3667643.aspx ..... and in a head to head between a highly experienced Tony Mowbray and our LJ, I know which one my money would be on to get their tactics right on the day. This is going to be a really tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bat Fastard Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogkev Posted April 11, 2017 Report Share Posted April 11, 2017 I still have a hunch that we might need to beat Birmingham in the final match to guarantee safety. Even though it doesn't bear thinking about, what a game and atmosphere that would be. I'd fancy LJ verse the terrible form of Zola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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