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We are not safe yet.

tinman85

By tinman85
in Football Chat

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Son of Fred

Son of Fred

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Alessandro said:

So if we lose our next 2 games:

Blackburn, who have won 1 game in their last 10 with a goal difference of -4 in those 10 games, -15 overall, need to find two wins from two and realistically a goal difference of + 5 from those games. That's against inform Villa and Brentford who are tough at their place, as we know.

If Blackburn achieve that, Birmingham (0 wins in 10 games, currently -22 goal difference) then need to win their last 2 games as well.

If Birmingham do that, Forest then need at least a win and a draw, or a big win.

Then QPR (who also play Forest) and Burton also need at least a point. 

Even if we lose our two games, all this needs to go against us, so I'm confident enough to say we're good as safe.

Am also pretty confident-though you don't have to look too far away to see how things can turn nasty on you!!

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reddoh

reddoh

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bat Fastard said:

Ah - so are you saying it is not a suck job but a blow job?

I think you know the difference, good news is you should already have a hole in both ends so depending on your persuasion you are good to go.

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LondonBristolian

LondonBristolian

Posted
Posted

I'm not going to count chickens but I'd be amazed if the third team to go down wasn't Blackburn or Birmingham. Possibly Forest and an outside shot of QPR but I don't really think both Birmingham and Blackburn will get to 50 points, especially as both travel on the final day to a team with very strong home form. Forest got a great result on Saturday but I don't reckon they will beat QPR.

I'm taking nothing for granted but I reckon we'll be celebrating confirmed survival at the final whistle on Saturday. 

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Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan

Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, WessexPest said:

All the Villa fans I know - and I know a fair few - are supporting Blackburn against their own team! Be interesting to see what impact that has on the players...

That's an interesting point - if we were in Villa's position, nothing to play for, we're playing a team fighting against the Gas for survival would you want City to lose? 

Back in 2001 we were at home to Wycombe towards the end of the season and went 2-1 down in the second half. My reflex response was to jump up and start swearing, which I did for about 2 seconds when I remembered that a Wycombe win would help stuff the Gas.

So I shut up and sat down.

I read that fans of Gimnasia FC in Argentina threatened their own players with death if they won a particular match because it would've hugely benefited their rivals. :blink:

 

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WessexPest

WessexPest

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

Back in 2001 we were at home to Wycombe towards the end of the season and went 2-1 down in the second half. My reflex response was to jump up and start swearing, which I did for about 2 seconds when I remembered that a Wycombe win would help stuff the Gas.

So I shut up and sat down.

I read that fans of Gimnasia FC in Argentina threatened their own players with death if they won a particular match because it would've hugely benefited their rivals. :blink:

 

I'd've done the same as you did.

I was at Wigan on the final day after the Gas' fate was sealed - great party mood from the City fans. Peter Beadle's goal just before Xmas helped send them down that year!

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WessexPest

WessexPest

Posted
Posted

To put things in perspective, OK we are not mathematically safe yet but after Palace's win at Anfield yesterday they are six clear of Swansea with still four games left and people are saying they are all but safe.

We'll be fine.

Wouldn't mind Swansea down the Gate next season...

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

Posted
Posted

Funny though it sounds Blackburn could well win their last 2.

Consider:

  • Villa beat Birmingham and now playing a direct rival- as someone said they may put in little effort considering Birmingham's current state.
  • On the last day, Blackburn go to Brentford. Again Brentford gave QPR a beating on Saturday and play Fulham next- two West London derbies, would love to try and scupper Fulham's play off hopes or damage them in any case. Just like they kept QPR in relegation danger. Thereafter, why put in much effort v Blackburn- especially with QPR still possibly in trouble.

I can well understand the celebrations on Saturday, it was a great relief and a happy day. Don't blame anyone for it, I am sure we will be fine, never thought we would go down anyway but I hope and pray it doesn't come back to bite us.

In short- we need that point just to be sure- well I hope we get 4-6 points from the next 2 but realistically a win v Birmingham is realistic, Brighton surely a loss there.

I will now outline the nightmare scenario Saturday:

  • We lose and lose quite heavily at Brighton- say 3-0.
  • Villa had their big remaining objective last week- lose say 2-0,at Blackburn.
  • Birmingham rally and beat Huddersfield who have been flaky of late- a real real must win in their position.
  • Burton take a point- or more at Barnsley, eminently possible. They would be safe.
  • Forest draw at QPR.

The table then would be pretty nuts again:

17. Burton 52

18. Us 51

19. QPR 51

20. Birmingham 50

21. Forest 49

22. Blackburn 48

Then:

  • We lose to Birmingham- down to 19th.
  • QPR take a point at Norwich- down to 20th.
  • Forest beat Ipswich at their place- far more on it for them than us- down to 21st.
  • Blackburn win at Brentford.

Comes down to GD then and they would need quite a big win at Brentford but Brentford maybe thinking of QPR dropping...

This is the worst worst worst case scenario.

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Ashtonwurzel

Ashtonwurzel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, cynic said:

Assuming Blackburn suddenly wake up and win two games by big amounts of course.

If we lose both our games and Blackburn win theirs, every chance the change in GD will be enough to send us down.

Currently 9 goal difference - if we lose our combined games by -5 goals and Blackburn win by a combined + 5 goals then they overtake us.

 

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The Dolman Pragmatist

The Dolman Pragmatist

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Funny though it sounds Blackburn could well win their last 2.

Consider:

  • Villa beat Birmingham and now playing a direct rival- as someone said they may put in little effort considering Birmingham's current state.
  • On the last day, Blackburn go to Brentford. Again Brentford gave QPR a beating on Saturday and play Fulham next- two West London derbies, would love to try and scupper Fulham's play off hopes or damage them in any case. Just like they kept QPR in relegation danger. Thereafter, why put in much effort v Blackburn- especially with QPR still possibly in trouble.

I can well understand the celebrations on Saturday, it was a great relief and a happy day. Don't blame anyone for it, I am sure we will be fine, never thought we would go down anyway but I hope and pray it doesn't come back to bite us.

In short- we need that point just to be sure- well I hope we get 4-6 points from the next 2 but realistically a win v Birmingham is realistic, Brighton surely a loss there.

The key thing is not to collapse against Brighton.  We can probably afford to lose by a goal or two, but anything more than that might take us into worrying territory.

Mind you, with things the way they are at Lofthouse Road at the moment, I wouldn't bet against QPR losing their last two.  I certainly expect Forest to beat them on Saturday and then they go to Norwich, who have a very good home record.

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

Posted
Posted
Just now, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

The key thing is not to collapse against Brighton.  We can probably afford to lose by a goal or two, but anything more than that might take us into worrying territory.

Mind you, with things the way they are at Lofthouse Road at the moment, I wouldn't bet against QPR losing their last two.  I certainly expect Forest to beat them on Saturday and then they go to Norwich, who have a very good home record.

I would love Hollowhead to relegate them from a seemingly unrelegatable position- won't happen but you never know!

Agree, no collapse up there- we should be okay anyway.

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pillred

pillred

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cynic said:

Assuming Blackburn suddenly wake up and win two games by big amounts of course.

If we lost by 3 Saturday very likely, and by a couple against a desperate brum, Blackburn would only need to win by a couple of goals both games, unlikely I admit but still possible.

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pillred

pillred

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WessexPest said:

All the Villa fans I know - and I know a fair few - are supporting Blackburn against their own team! Be interesting to see what impact that has on the players...

That's an interesting point - if we were in Villa's position, nothing to play for, we're playing a team fighting against the Gas for survival would you want City to lose? 

that's an interesting dilemma, not easy to answer especially if it had no negative impact on us.

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WessexPest

WessexPest

Posted
Posted
Just now, pillred said:

that's an interesting dilemma, not easy to answer especially if it had no negative impact on us.

I'd want us to lose but I would never cheer a goal against City, nor would I go as far as those Pompey fans at the Hawthorns a few years back - they were wearing WBA shirts in a match where West Brom were playing their own team because Southampton were going down. So wrong!

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pillred

pillred

Posted
Posted
Just now, WessexPest said:

I'd want us to lose but I would never cheer a goal against City, nor would I go as far as those Pompey fans at the Hawthorns a few years back - they were wearing WBA shirts in a match where West Brom were playing their own team because Southampton were going down. So wrong!

yes that is definitely going too far! 

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WessexPest

WessexPest

Posted
Posted

...then again if Newcastle win will Brighton feel them breathing down their necks and choke against us? Oh, I don't know.

I'd be astonished if we didn't get at least a point against Brum given our recent home form and how terrible they are.

If we do by some miracle go down from here we could have absolutely no complaints, but we won't.

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GodEmperor Palpatine

GodEmperor Palpatine

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, WessexPest said:

All the Villa fans I know - and I know a fair few - are supporting Blackburn against their own team! Be interesting to see what impact that has on the players...

That's an interesting point - if we were in Villa's position, nothing to play for, we're playing a team fighting against the Gas for survival would you want City to lose? 

Tbf just because the Villa fans are supporting Blackburn doesn't mean the Villa players wont bother turning up, I would fully expect the players to put in a professional performance.

I would hope the same for City in your Gas survival scenario

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Northern Red

Northern Red

Posted
Posted
Just now, cynic said:

Again, Forest, QPR, Burton and Birmingham come into the equation - its just not City v Blackburn.

 

Yep. People seem to be working on the basis that we're 21st, when we're actually 17th. Even if Blackburn win both games, which I doubt will happen, it'll still need a sequence of results from elsewhere that would be hard to make a case for.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, tinman85 said:

Just saying. We need to avoid a heavy defeat on Sat

Don't forget to just say that we've put some daylight between us and 3rd from bottom and all the other possible permutations that those below us need to worry about.

Just saying.

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Ashtonwurzel

Ashtonwurzel

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cynic said:

Go bet on it - if you can find a bookie who will take the bet.

And also factor in all the other teams involved in the relegation race.

 

Agree it is not at all likely but it's not as simple as Blackburn having to "win big" to catch us, they don't.

 Routine wins for them and routine defeats for us could mean they overtake us.

As you say would take a miracle for at least one of the others currently below us not to stay there.

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pillred

pillred

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, cynic said:

Again, Forest, QPR, Burton and Birmingham come into the equation - its just not City v Blackburn.

 

yes now you put it like that I can see it's very unlikely, just that very small chance and you know our terrible luck.

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