As good as it gets...?

[Mr Popodopolous]

OK.

So this is going to sound unduly pessimistic, and knee-jerk but I was thinking about this the other day. Yes, we were unlucky today but...

For a few years at least, maybe longer is this broadly as good as it will get?

The reasons I say this? The only clubs I have us off the top of head- perhaps some others too- but anyway, definitively bigger than only: Barnsley, Brentford, Burton, Millwall. Also Reading.

That's reason 1. Surely bigger than Cardiff also and probably Fulham and Hull also.

Reason 2? Parachute payments. Combine that inbuilt advantage with FFP and top 6 will be a struggle for the foreseeable for us.

In other words, I think unless we get momentum one year and a fair wind, midtable or top half will be cap of our ambitions for a while yet.

Am I unduly pessimistic here or?

[shelts]

Great film . Jack on top form 

[Bris Red]

For every year a Huddersfield type get promoted there will always be hope for the clubs without parachute payments IMO. It is possible...

[MarkRed!]

I think the real question is where should we expect to finish given the resources at our disposal. If Lansdown was spending 100 million on the team then I think we should be expecting promotion. He is not. He is spending decent money but it is a drop in the ocean compared to the bigger clubs who unfairly benefit from the parachute payments. Having said that, the championship is a tough division and simply spending lots of money guarantees nothing. Just look at Villa. Others have also tried and fallen as a result - Blackburn, Coventry, Portsmouth. Even the likes of Man City, Forest and Leeds have failed at this level. Let's face it Man City are only where they are because of the £ that has been ploughed into them. They have bought success but they are spending £ that is equivlanet to the budgets of some small countries, which says it all really. I still remember them being shite and struggling to get out of League One.

 I think we should expect to finish mid-table given that we have had 2 close relegation seasons. That would represent progress for me.

I don't think we can compete with the larger clubs, yet. What we need is to build a young side and get them Championship standard by game experience at this level.  By building we might then get into a position where we can realistically be aiming for the top 6. The fact we have been picking up good or promising international players like Wright, Magnússon, Odowda, Eliason, Engvall, Moore, Diedhiou suggests that we are trying to do this. It will take time. What we certainly need to do is back the manager and the structure in place. There might be some pain along the way and I think we experienced that last season. What the club should do is not talk about "Europe" and the "PL in X seasons" as this raises expectations amongst an already fickle fan base. This puts pressure on the club when times are tough. I have been critical of the club in the past but I quite like what they are doing. Take today, I felt the difference between Birmingham and ourselves was that they ground out a result having not played particularly well. They can win ugly but man for man they have more championship experience than our players. Some have also played at a higher level. Thus, this is what we have to aim for. Reasons to be optimistic for sure!

[Eastside Moonwalker]

We're not ready to be a premier league team, luck will be the only thing that sends us up this year. Although we're building steadily and you can't expect too much too quickly. 

 

I think by 2030 we will have experienced the premier league once, we have the Stadia and the financial backing behind us although we really can't compete with half the teams in this league

[Ivorguy]

I see little evidence that the club is realistically building towards promotion.  Only twice since 1945 have we looked likely to succeed, and only once did we actually achieve it.  The other season, under GJ, was always looking a fluke season.  

If we avoid relegation this year we will, in City terms, have done well.

We are happiest at the third level and without serious investment in playing and coaching staff that is where this current stay at second level will end rather than with promotion to Premiership.  So enjoy seeing second level teams and the odd great victory before the inevitable happens and we return to our comfort zone

[Sweeneys Penalties]

every club has a ceiling. every club has a floor. We will never rise as high as Arsenal,,, we will always sink lower than Arsenal will ever sink. Get over it. It reflects life itself

[eastonboy]

On Football Focus today they said that since the PL was introduced, 48 teams have participated.

So over half the FL have had a go, so I expect we will get our chance eventually.

So in answer to your question, no I don't think this is as good as it gets, whether when we get there getting tonked five nil is better  than what we are currently experiencing, is another question altogether...

[Mr Popodopolous]

59 minutes ago, Keyardiv said:

Out of interest on what basis are you surely bigger than us? I think we're similar overall but our all-time record attendance is higher, our all-time average attendance is higher, our average in any individual season is higher and we've recorded a higher average attendance in Divisions 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Perhaps similar overall. Was thinking of the years we were above you, and though surely was an overstatement, I think we can see similarities with us shading it.

Admittedly I have not looked into historic comparisons as I should but...yeah quite similar you are right I guess.

@eastonboy Yeah true enough, plenty of sides have gone into it now. Just kinda feels further away than ever now though.

@Ivorguy I think we can be a respectable Championship side...but perhaps not much more. Don't think League one is our natural home though.

@MarkRed! I too would be reasonably happy with midtable.

@Eastside Moonwalker Maybe then, maybe in a decade or so. An issue I have,  a view is that we are now only catching up.

A lot of clubs at this level already have the bigger grounds, the corporate infrastructure and probably the off-field activities too.

My closing thoughts for now. Will be 4, 5 years before we see any concrete progress beyond midtable.

[AppyDAZE]

29 minutes ago, Sweeneys Penalties said:

every club has a ceiling. every club has a floor. We will never rise as high as Arsenal,,, we will always sink lower than Arsenal will ever sink. Get over it. It reflects life itself

and we will never sink lower than South Glos Irene Nomads '15 ltd FC. It's not all bad, folks.

[Rossi the Robin]

Don't be a pessimist, as long as the football is exciting from us and we give it a good go - win more than we lose, Im happy 

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Oh yeah, I'm not saying we can't be happy in Championship.

If we play well- and even when we don't, we give it our all, get some memorable wins then, well it's a fine League this one. Like a PL 2 in some ways.

[Mr Popodopolous]

@Sweeneys Penalties

We may not rise to those heights of Arsenal, for example.

Gotta say though, couldn't care less. Like us all on here, City is and always will be my side.

At work the other day heard 5, maybe 6 people talk about how they went to Wembley to see Arsenal v Chelsea (in Arsenal end).

At this stage, I thought Get down AG, check out some less corporate, less faffing football- city you live in!

 You may even enjoy it!

[Grey Fox]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

OK.

So this is going to sound unduly pessimistic, and knee-jerk but I was thinking about this the other day. Yes, we were unlucky today but...

For a few years at least, maybe longer is this broadly as good as it will get?

The reasons I say this? The only clubs I have us off the top of head- perhaps some others too- but anyway, definitively bigger than only: Barnsley, Brentford, Burton, Millwall. Also Reading.

That's reason 1. Surely bigger than Cardiff also and probably Fulham and Hull also.

Reason 2? Parachute payments. Combine that inbuilt advantage with FFP and top 6 will be a struggle for the foreseeable for us.

In other words, I think unless we get momentum one year and a fair wind, midtable or top half will be cap of our ambitions for a while yet.

Am I unduly pessimistic here or?

Huddersfield, 

Bournemouth

Swansea

[Lanterne Rouge]

I`ve said it before with regard to the Premier League that the journey is much more enjoyable than the destination IMO.

Football in the Championship is far more exciting and watchable than it would ever be seeing us in the Premier League getting tonked every week.

[Andy082005]

15 hours ago, Ivorguy said:

I see little evidence that the club is realistically building towards promotion.  Only twice since 1945 have we looked likely to succeed, and only once did we actually achieve it.  The other season, under GJ, was always looking a fluke season.  

If we avoid relegation this year we will, in City terms, have done well.

We are happiest at the third level and without serious investment in playing and coaching staff that is where this current stay at second level will end rather than with promotion to Premiership.  So enjoy seeing second level teams and the odd great victory before the inevitable happens and we return to our comfort zone

This is a great post and pretty much what I was going to write.

We don't have the coaching staff to nurture this club and help them improve. Yesterday proved nothing has changed. So similar to last season. We played some great football, but couldn't put the game to bed. Opposition manager changes things and turns the game...then we have a manager who does not have the ability to react to this . He never has a plan B 

I don't think we will go down this year. But I also don't believe we will come top half. As long as we have this manager and the cherry picked staff....I can only see another season of struggle and excuses 

[ThreeWordCityNerd]

8 hours ago, Red Right Hand said:

Football in the Championship is far more exciting and watchable than it would ever be seeing us in the Premier League getting tonked every week.

-£120million+

 

[Lanterne Rouge]

5 minutes ago, OneWordCityNerd said:

-£120million+

 

True but it wouldn`t make the football any more exciting and one season up could ruin the club for years if the cash is not used wisely.

[GrahamC]

18 hours ago, Keyardiv said:

Out of interest on what basis are you surely bigger than us? I think we're similar overall but our all-time record attendance is higher, our all-time average attendance is higher, our average in any individual season is higher and we've recorded a higher average attendance in Divisions 1, 2, 3 and 4.

Complete and utter bollocks.

Your "average in any individual season is higher"? Like last year when we averaged well over 2000 more than you, as a for instance?

You were also the third worst supported away side last season.

Truth is despite being generously supported financially by your council and in the past by Hammam and Tan, you're a pretty small club at this level.

[cidered abroad]

17 hours ago, eastonboy said:

On Football Focus today they said that since the PL was introduced, 48 teams have participated.

So over half the FL have had a go, so I expect we will get our chance eventually.

So in answer to your question, no I don't think this is as good as it gets, whether when we get there getting tonked five nil is better  than what we are currently experiencing, is another question altogether...

Do we forever have to be an also ran when clubs like Swindon, Blackpool, Oldham, Wimbledon have achieved some time with the elite?

We've improved our stadium, and are moving in the right directions with the Academy and first team recruitment. But something is lacking in our set up! Harry proved yesterday that there isn't any substitute for experience. Do we have wait ten years for LJ to get his?

[Wanderingred]

15 hours ago, Keyardiv said:

You've conveniently based the comparison on your highest average attendance for nearly 40 years I see - and a season when our attendances have slumped for various reasons. We averaged over 20,000 in our previous 5 seasons in the Championship.

We've also averaged 38,000 across a whole season previously, your highest is 26,000 so our average in any individual season being higher is simply a fact, not bollox. 

I'm not indulging in a cock-waving exercise, I was simply responding to a claim that you're "surely" bigger than us, which I think you can only really claim if you choose your seasons carefully. Not that it matters, we're both similar mid-size clubs.


 

I don't think we're bigger than Cardiff but I will point out that in those seasons you've averaged 20k plus, you have almost always been pushing for the top six. The last couple of years you have slipped down to mid table and your crowds have dropped quite a bit. I would fully expect us to get similar crowds if we have the sort of seasons you had during 2009-14. So I guess what I'm saying is that there isn't much in it between the two teams. Cardiff have had bigger recent crowds because they have been far more succesful but put both teams in an equal situation and I think it would be pretty even.

[j1974]

On 12/08/2017 at 21:49, MarkRed! said:

I think the real question is where should we expect to finish given the resources at our disposal. If Lansdown was spending 100 million on the team then I think we should be expecting promotion. He is not. He is spending decent money but it is a drop in the ocean compared to the bigger clubs who unfairly benefit from the parachute payments. Having said that, the championship is a tough division and simply spending lots of money guarantees nothing. Just look at Villa. Others have also tried and fallen as a result - Blackburn, Coventry, Portsmouth. Even the likes of Man City, Forest and Leeds have failed at this level. Let's face it Man City are only where they are because of the £ that has been ploughed into them. They have bought success but they are spending £ that is equivlanet to the budgets of some small countries, which says it all really. I still remember them being shite and struggling to get out of League One.

 I think we should expect to finish mid-table given that we have had 2 close relegation seasons. That would represent progress for me.

I don't think we can compete with the larger clubs, yet. What we need is to build a young side and get them Championship standard by game experience at this level.  By building we might then get into a position where we can realistically be aiming for the top 6. The fact we have been picking up good or promising international players like Wright, Magnússon, Odowda, Eliason, Engvall, Moore, Diedhiou suggests that we are trying to do this. It will take time. What we certainly need to do is back the manager and the structure in place. There might be some pain along the way and I think we experienced that last season. What the club should do is not talk about "Europe" and the "PL in X seasons" as this raises expectations amongst an already fickle fan base. This puts pressure on the club when times are tough. I have been critical of the club in the past but I quite like what they are doing. Take today, I felt the difference between Birmingham and ourselves was that they ground out a result having not played particularly well. They can win ugly but man for man they have more championship experience than our players. Some have also played at a higher level. Thus, this is what we have to aim for. Reasons to be optimistic for sure!

Good post, you are right about Birmingham winning a little ugly but this is where the likes of Wright, Smith and Pack should help the younger players out with their experience in grinding out a result, I personally think that Gary O Neil would be great to bring on in a game like Sat. 

Like you I am fairly optimistic about the future, our recruitment and spending has improved massively this time in the championship, we all just need to be patient and the results and success will follow. 

[Jack Dawe]

Cardiff, historically, have been capable of attracting significantly bigger crowds than our biggest and noticeably smaller crowds than our smallest. Or, in other words, they have had more glory-hunters than us, and more deserters than us.

But their impressive "highs" need to be put in context.

Cardiff had their biggest crowds in the post war seasons when 1. Crowds were at their highest they had ever been across the country, nationwide and 2. They had a successful team during this period of nationwide enthusiasm for football, promoted from Div 3S in '47, then from Div 2 in '52, followed by 5 years of top class football.

During this same period, we 'enjoyed' Div 3S and Div 2 football only, our highest finish was 10th in Div 2 in 1959. Cardiff's highest finish in that '47 - '60 "Golden Age" of football: 10th in Div 1.

No surprise then that Cardiff's highest average beats ours by some distance. At a time when almost every club were setting attendance records and enjoying unprecedented popularity, they were playing at a higher level than us. At Cardiff, in the late 50s, you could watch Matthews, Finney, Busby's Babes, the country's finest, the very best; at Ashton Gate, it was probably Gillingham and Walsall and Port Vale etc.

 

We will never know how many would've gone to Ashton Gate in the 1950s to watch the top players of the day.I think we can be sure though that it would've been more than went to see us in the second and third divisions.

 

Interestingly, when relegated from the top in '62, Cardiff averaged 19,200; when we were relegated 18 years later in 1980, hooliganism and negative, defensive, low-scoring football (and nationwide disdain for football) and all, we averaged 18,900. 300 fewer.

To put that in context, there must've been more travelling support in 1980 than 1962, so we turn to our lowest ebb, and Cardiff's lowest ebb, not so far apart - 4th Division football when football was dying on it's knees in the 1980s and early '90s - here's the facts:

City's lowest in Div 4: 4,799 in 82/83. We finished 14th.

Cardiff's lowest in Div 4: 2,826 in 86/87. They finished 13th.

That 's a pretty good comparison, and a whopping difference: Cardiff fans are deserters. Compared to us (and to Rovers, ffs!) Fact!

In total, Cardiff have averaged fewer than our lowest ever in 82/83 eleven times. Eleven seasons, including another one in 90/91 when they averaged under 3k (2,900). Pitiful.

 

Cardiff fans are everywhere when they have a winning team and nowhere to be seen when they are sh1te. Cardiff fans are deserters! Fact!

 

I could go on to compare other like-for-like comparisons (to further illustrate Cardiff's deserter tendency, and our comparative loyalty) such as:

Us, relegated from Div 2 in 1981: averaged 9,700.

Cardiff, relegated from Div 2 in 1982: averaged 5,500.

I could go on, but I might bore you with stats, and Facts!, and you might think me obsessed, or something. They have certainly had bigger gates, and probably could attract a bigger one now, they probably sing more than us, and fight more/better than us (yawn), but I will never take a lecture from those Welsh deserters on loyalty and support and keeping the faith.

The facts are there, and they speak for themselves: Cardiff deserters and glory-hunters. And we take no lectures from them on crowds and support.

 

 

[Up The City!]

Two of the three promoted clubs last season didn't receive parachute payments. Brighton have built slowly to get to where they have got to. Bristol Citu believe they are 4 years behind Brighton and have people down there shadowing them to learn from them in an attempt to replicate what they have done.

[Jack Dawe]

7 minutes ago, Keyardiv said:

P

Well, I've not lectured anybdody, all I've claimed is that we're similar mid size clubs, it's only some Bristol City fans who seem to think you're something other than that.

You also seem to use context selectively.  In 1982 you were a top-flight club a few seasons prior with attendances of 20,000-23000. You were shedding around 30-40% of your fan base each season at that time so who knows how much further you would have dropped? But you were promoted the following season and only spent 2 seasons in total in that dungeon compared to our 10 during the period, which you've also neglected to mention in your comparison.

I actually do think we have quite fickle fans tbh. The club has struggled to build a loyal fan base in the City - back in the day Ninian Park was actively avoided by people who couldn't be arsed with all the hassle. Some of our support during the dark days has indeed been very poor, so think you have a fair point there. The club was terribly run and heading for oblivion at that time.

I've looked at your attendance history and you've averaged more than 20,000+ 3 times in nearly 60 seasons. If you think that makes you something other than another mid-size club then good luck to you. Just my opinion like - it's not intended as a jibe. I'm done.

 

Every club has fans that think they are more, or "bigger," than they are. Most though know and accept where they are in the pecking order. Including us. We aren't a big club, and we are not a small club. Just like Cardiff. We are both "mid-size" clubs, as you put it. Agreed! 

 

 

[Maesknoll Red]

I wonder how much higher our attendance figures would be, were we the only club in the City (a bit of wishful thinking).....

[Jack Dawe]

11 minutes ago, Maesknoll Red said:

I wonder how much higher our attendance figures would be, were we the only club in the City (a bit of wishful thinking).....

Indeed. Our Cardiff browsers/visitors want to bear this in mind. The metropolitan area populations of Bristol and Cardiff are very similar, but between us and Rovers, there is more football support here than over there. 

I loved how Keyardiv started using "we were terribly run and heading for oblivion" to excuse their 2k crowds - whereas in 1982/83 we were "competently run and headed for .... " !?!

[Jack Dawe]

3 minutes ago, Keyardiv said:

Cardiff Metropolitan Area includes Newport 

 

I thought you were "done"?!

Newport are not much more of a negative impact on your crowds than Bath City are on ours. They were playing at the 7th and 8th tier in the past 30 years. You'll have to do better than that.