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Is top 6 realistic this season?


reddogkev

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I cant see how we have improved from last season, and we all know what happened there. Diedhou wont get more than tammy, though he looks very promissing, and if anything happens to him we are royally screwed. Baker isnt an upgrade on flint, lj should have been fired last year, and against brum we blow a goal lead and cant get a goal against 10 men against a bottom half team. Barnsley we beat, but arguably they have sold their best players and are likely to be in deep relegation trouble. Our main chance of avoiding relegation is that there are 3 worse teams than us, maybe barnsley, millwall and burton? Sad but true imho.

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13 minutes ago, simon uk said:

I cant see how we have improved from last season, and we all know what happened there. Diedhou wont get more than tammy, though he looks very promissing, and if anything happens to him we are royally screwed. Baker isnt an upgrade on flint, lj should have been fired last year, and against brum we blow a goal lead and cant get a goal against 10 men against a bottom half team. Barnsley we beat, but arguably they have sold their best players and are likely to be in deep relegation trouble. Our main chance of avoiding relegation is that there are 3 worse teams than us, maybe barnsley, millwall and burton? Sad but true imho.

Crickey talk about galasaalfempity.

NO......... Bobby Reid the Striker is a masterstroke........Top 6 no problem but would like to see flint or baker back in for brentford. we need that aerial presence at both ends of the pitch.

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I think Burton and Barnsley will go down this year and I reckon there are at least 10 teams stronger than us and some with a lot more money, mid table ish should be achievable, I would put us in a batch with the likes of Birmingham, Brentford, QPR, Preston maybe Ipswich and we have already lost to one of them and play another tomorrow, top 6 i would say no chance, quite happy to be proved wrong though.

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I'd be happy with a middle third finish (i.e. 9 - 16) provided that is where we spend most of the season, not creeping there at the end after six months in the bottom third. A full season in the bottom third (i.e. No progress) would be unsatisfactory.

Top third (1 - 8) stills looks unlikely.

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6 hours ago, spudski said:

The difference between 17th and 14th and 12th last season, was 4 and 8 points. Less than 3 wins difference in a whole season.

It's mad when you think about it.  A few wins define a season, and whether a manager is any good or not.

I'd like to think, we wouldn't go on a winless streak again.

Are we a squad capable of 5 more wins than last season?

If the answer is yes, then that would put us in comfortably in the top 10.

Obviously a lot depends on injuries, form etc... but if we continue the way we are playing and creating chances, as well as tightening the defence...is 5 extra wins a reality?

I think it possibly is.

Like to see us turn 5 defeats into 5 draws....5 more points would be a big boost.  We don't look like a side that knows how to take a point...not just Saturday v Brum (away), but home defeats like Brentford and PNE back to back were games when a point was there for the taking, but we tried to take all 3, and got none.  That's where I want LJ to learn...and quickly.

4 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think 66 is possible. W17, D15, L14.  Compared to last season's W15 D9 L22.

66 would leave us somewhere around 10th.

 

 

If we only lose 14 (less than 1/3) I'll be very surprised.  I don't see 8 of those defeats turning into 2 wins and 6 draws, but that would be great improvement.  I hope we do.

4 hours ago, Bar BS3 said:

Which players do you think we've signed this summer that we're League one stars and have no championship experience..?

Baker= Championship experience  

Pisano=Serie A & B experience

Famara=full international and already looks perfectly well equipped for Championship football. 

Eliasson= young & raw, granted, but was attracting interest from Lyon.

Add to them, a host of younger players who now have championship experience from last season and I don't think we are looking weaker than last season. Far from it. 

 

I think our agent in France @Major Isewater hasn't found any real Lyon links, since the Lyon people were supposedly in Norkopping.

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18 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

If we only lose 14 (less than 1/3) I'll be very surprised.  I don't see 8 of those defeats turning into 2 wins and 6 draws, but that would be great improvement.  I hope we do.

As soon as I posted that made up record I thought exactly the same.  I guess I'm optimistic atm.  Ask me again after I see us play for the first time tomorrow night! 

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1 hour ago, Leveller said:

I'd be happy with a middle third finish (i.e. 9 - 16) provided that is where we spend most of the season, not creeping there at the end after six months in the bottom third. A full season in the bottom third (i.e. No progress) would be unsatisfactory.

Top third (1 - 8) stills looks unlikely.

Surely it depends on how the fixture list pans out over a season? Plus injuries and suspensions.

If we were top 10 all season and finished 15th....or bottom 10 all season and finished 15th...or mid table all season and finished 15th...what's the difference?

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28 minutes ago, spudski said:

Surely it depends on how the fixture list pans out over a season? Plus injuries and suspensions.

If we were top 10 all season and finished 15th....or bottom 10 all season and finished 15th...or mid table all season and finished 15th...what's the difference?

I think I'd rather spend two thirds of the season with an outside chance of the play-offs, only to slip away towards the end once it becomes apparent we won't make it and motivation levels dropping off than two thirds of the season living in real threat of relegation, only to have a mad scramble at the end and happening to end 15th because the motivation of the teams above us all season dropping off.

It reminds me of Tinnion's single, whole season in charge.  We finished 7th despite being pretty poor throughout.  It was a mis-leading final position - we simply went through a purple patch of form right at the end.  The following season we finished 9th under Gary Johnson but that was deemed the better season with greater optimism going into the next.

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1 hour ago, spudski said:

Surely it depends on how the fixture list pans out over a season? Plus injuries and suspensions.

If we were top 10 all season and finished 15th....or bottom 10 all season and finished 15th...or mid table all season and finished 15th...what's the difference?

The difference is about six months of grief compared with six months of relative relaxation!

Our final position last season wasn't too bad, but it would have been a lot easier if we had been thereabouts from December onwards.

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3 hours ago, spudski said:

Surely it depends on how the fixture list pans out over a season? Plus injuries and suspensions.

If we were top 10 all season and finished 15th....or bottom 10 all season and finished 15th...or mid table all season and finished 15th...what's the difference?

be honest do you feel better, if we draw having been two up, or come back from two down, same result but somehow it feels better.

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17 hours ago, Thatch35 said:

You never know. But the squad is not stronger than last year....as of yet. New young players have arrived with no championship experience (or league one stars) this happend last season and what a struggle it turned out. Just got to wait now and see if the squad turns out to be stronger...that will be evident at the end im afraid. I also think the championship is stronger again. Just look at wolves...16mill on a midfielder...mental. 

A few good points raised there, Thatch, but I'd say the squad is stronger:

* Addition of Nathan Baker (with Flint still currently kicking around in the shadows)!

* £5million man - Fammy Diedhou - will be a top Championship talent

* The apparent improvement of Bobby Reid

* The departure of Tomlin helps City rather than weakens it

* A solid Italian RB with an eye for goal

And the Championship is weaker, just a quick example but the league has lost:

The domination of Newcastle and Brighton - I can't see this being matched by Boro or Villa for example,

A Champions League winning manager.

And it has Bolton back, who were rubbish last time round!

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19 hours ago, Fat Cigar said:

I'd be extremely disappointed if we didn't improve on last season's 17th. To be honest, with the players we've got (and some are good, some average, none excellent), we should be aiming for 12th-14th as a minimum. 

Once we learn how to be ruthless, how to kill teams off, how to defend a lead, we'll be making progress. Some of the football we play is wonderful, but it's quite naive at times. Some of the best teams are happy to sit back, soak up pressure, and hit you on the break. We're not that team. 

Our style of play is also energy-sapping. This is why you need every player (strikers included) to be able to defend. 

There are some very talented players in that squad, with a year or two of Championship experience. If we're not comfortably mid-table after 23 matches, something's not right. 

We're lucky we have Wright playing the Flint type role. The figurehead, the bruiser. I'd also expect Korey and Pack to lead the midfield. 

As some have said, this league is not as strong as last year's. There's not a single team I'd be worried about playing. Confidence is a huge factor. Mentally, we were gone during that awful run of defeats last year, as well as all the games where we blew first half leads. Mental thoughness and a ruthless, clinical, streak is probably as important as talent in this division. 

Top 6? Not this year, but these players, with the right management and coaching, can certainly challenge for it in a year or two. Whether they're good enough to push for promotion remains to be seen. 

Thanks for this post. You almost wrote it verbatim for me. If we can defend properly (unlikely), we could finish top 6. The pressing game we play is great in theory, but you have to have confidence in the system. You can't play a pressing game and a sitting back game together in one match. Last year when we sat back we were awful. Teams took us to bits. The players didn't know what to do. So like you say we have to kill the game off, score 3, keep the pressing game going and realise that we're gonna be knackered and concede a goal. 

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17 hours ago, EnclosureSurge said:

I'm interested that you don't see any of our players as 'excellent'. Of course, it's an entirely subjective concept - one man's excellence is another's average - but I would have said Korey Smith could plausibly be described as excellent by many people's standards. Perhaps excellence in this scenario could be seen as 'good enough to walk into most Champ teams'. I reckon Korey would be able to do that. Other than him, true, excellence is missing. 

Fair point, and Korey was certainly one who you could make the 'excellence' case for. However, his injuries last season stymied his progress and we didn't see enough, but he has showed glimpses of being back to his best. Let's see how he is in a few months. Korey's an interesting player though. A very busy effervescent midfielder who specialises in doing the simple things right. Johnson has played him as an attacking midfielder, but I'm not sure he's that creative a player. More of a link between defence and attack. And he certainly doesn't score goals. 

He can also count himself extremely unlucky to have been overlooked as captain, for both this and last season. My guess is that you want your captain to be a guaranteed starter, and for Johnson, Korey may not be. 

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1 hour ago, Fat Cigar said:

Fair point, and Korey was certainly one who you could make the 'excellence' case for. However, his injuries last season stymied his progress and we didn't see enough, but he has showed glimpses of being back to his best. Let's see how he is in a few months. Korey's an interesting player though. A very busy effervescent midfielder who specialises in doing the simple things right. Johnson has played him as an attacking midfielder, but I'm not sure he's that creative a player. More of a link between defence and attack. And he certainly doesn't score goals. 

He can also count himself extremely unlucky to have been overlooked as captain, for both this and last season. My guess is that you want your captain to be a guaranteed starter, and for Johnson, Korey may not be. 

Excellent post. I enjoy reading what you write - well written and clear. 

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7 hours ago, reddogkev said:

A few good points raised there, Thatch, but I'd say the squad is stronger:

* Addition of Nathan Baker (with Flint still currently kicking around in the shadows)!

* £5million man - Fammy Diedhou - will be a top Championship talent

* The apparent improvement of Bobby Reid

* The departure of Tomlin helps City rather than weakens it

* A solid Italian RB with an eye for goal

And the Championship is weaker, just a quick example but the league has lost:

The domination of Newcastle and Brighton - I can't see this being matched by Boro or Villa for example,

A Champions League winning manager.

And it has Bolton back, who were rubbish last time round!

I'd rather have players from outside the Championship, and have hungry players from other leagues, whether here or from abroad.

Too many players in this league, picking up a massive weekly cheque, because they have 'experience', but no motivation and just going through the motions.

Gary O'neil isn't going to bust a gut for us week in week out for example. Has nothing to prove, and coming to the end of his career.

Wilbs for example, was a rare breed in this division.

I don't see Teams full of Championship experience, as anything to worry about tbh.

The hungry players looking to get a step into the Prem are where it's at imo.

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25 minutes ago, spudski said:

I'd rather have players from outside the Championship, and have hungry players from other leagues, whether here or from abroad.

Too many players in this league, picking up a massive weekly cheque, because they have 'experience', but no motivation and just going through the motions.

Gary O'neil isn't going to bust a gut for us week in week out for example. Has nothing to prove, and coming to the end of his career.

Wilbs for example, was a rare breed in this division.

I don't see Teams full of Championship experience, as anything to worry about tbh.

The hungry players looking to get a step into the Prem are where it's at imo.

I'd agree with this, and I think a lot of the history of teams when they get up bears this out.

If you look at teams that went up in the prem era and made a real impact, they were full of hunger. Weren't full of "Ricky Scimecas" who played most of his career in playoff chasing teams or relegation teams. I'm thinking here Swansea, Southampton, Bournemouth, heck even as far back as Reading under Coppell and Ipswich under Burley.

The problem with players who are constantly in that "maybe a bit too good at their best for the Championship but not quite good enough if not on top form for the prem" is that if the desire goes even 10%, it's enough of a small marginal to mean they're a passenger.

This in part is why we're doing what we're doing. I'm not saying we'll go up - but if we did, I'd rather do it with a team of Josh Brownhills than a team of Tom Inces. (I like Ince as a player but he's squarely in the top good/not good enough category)

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