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Have we under estimated LJ ?


bpexile

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1 hour ago, JamesBCFC said:

I did the numbers on our spend a few days ago.

Depending on exactly what we got in the sell ons and what we got for Agard (Transfermarkt didnt give a value) we are somewhere between £1.6m spent and about 500k profit.

Nice one, what was your calculated spend since lj started? Must be around 15 to 18 million I guess?

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3 hours ago, Thatch35 said:

It was so funny when LJ claimed the win against Chalton when he was sat in the standa when JP was in charge! As you say JP strated the turn around not LJ.

This season is just like last season's start. Some good and lucky wins in the league and the start of a cup run. Can't knock it so far. Norwich a other good test of the encouraging start.

When did he claim the Charlton win? Stop making things up. 

 

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1 hour ago, downendcity said:

While many are feeling much more optimistic about things at the moment, I doubt there are many who feel we are promotion candidates or even dream of promotion.

There are a lot more positive signs than this time last season, but we have a young and relatively inexperienced squad and doubtless we will come up against tough opposition over the rest of the season and the resolute performances against Brentford and Wolves won't always happen when we are put under that sort of pressure. 

The squad looks stronger throughout ( who would have thought that Flint might not be our first choice at the heart of defence!) and we at last seem to have our way of playing, and it is working, What we might just lack is that bit of experience - a Paul Hartley in midfield would be ideal just now - so I am hopeful of a top half finish and if we maintain early season form we might just be close to the play offs. 

However, we all know just how tough this division is and can be, and there are some tough teams with very strong squads, that I would expect to have the quality over the whole season that we probably lack at the moment.

Agree massively with this. We've made good progress, and have a young abs hungry squad.

But I don't think we're ready for a promotion challenge just yet. A season to early for me 

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55 minutes ago, simon uk said:

Nice one, what was your calculated spend since lj started? Must be around 15 to 18 million I guess?

Its a bit more than that, though hard to be fully certain as the website had the nunbers in Euros.

Came out at £21.9m once converted, though numbers for Wright and Paterson were missing.

I think Wright was about 400k and Paterson wasn't much more so added £1m on top, so about £23m spent.

 

It does sound a lot, but less than £8m per window, about average in this league I think.

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35 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Its a bit more than that, though hard to be fully certain as the website had the nunbers in Euros.

Came out at £21.9m once converted, though numbers for Wright and Paterson were missing.

I think Wright was about 400k and Paterson wasn't much more so added £1m on top, so about £23m spent.

 

It does sound a lot, but less than £8m per window, about average in this league I think.

We played  a Wolves team with a £15m purchase playing  ( another £10m player as well??) and that is what we are up against.

As many have said LJ's net spend is very low, but we have to spend if we are to compete, but at long last we seem to be spending wisely and the players bought in also seem to fit our playing system so less square pegs in round holes. 

 

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I do think that, if things carry on, it shows the value of togetherness and everyone buying into what you are doing.

Most of us criticised the sacking of JP last season but, much as I like  the guy for what he did for us, results have improved. And i do wonder - to be clear, i have no knowledge of this was true or not - if the issue was having people in the management team, as well as the playing staff, who did not agree with the direction the club was going in and - perhaps unintentionally - undermined what the manger was trying to do.

The reality is, whoever is right or wrong, LJ is the manager and has the right to put across his vision and ideas. If other people disagree and cannot buy into his vision, it is in everyone's interests to move them on.

 

 

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2 hours ago, JamesBCFC said:

Its a bit more than that, though hard to be fully certain as the website had the nunbers in Euros.

Came out at £21.9m once converted, though numbers for Wright and Paterson were missing.

I think Wright was about 400k and Paterson wasn't much more so added £1m on top, so about £23m spent.

 

It does sound a lot, but less than £8m per window, about average in this league I think.

Nice one! So lj has spent 23 million putting his squad together, I don't know about the rest of the league but that is serious money, surely we should have the right to expect a good season after that?

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19 minutes ago, simon uk said:

Nice one! So lj has spent 23 million putting his squad together, I don't know about the rest of the league but that is serious money, surely we should have the right to expect a good season after that?

You have to look at the net spend which is low. Also, when he arrived we had a tiny squad with a serious lack of quality outside the first 11. That takes time, and a few million, to put right.

He’s also lost his top scorer in two successive seasons. Both brilliant players who you’d build the team around. That’s another challenge.

When you consider the fees being spent in this league - Assombalonga’s and Ruben Nevez’s for example - they’re higher than the combined fees to basically revamp our entire squad. There’s huge money being thrown around which is tough to keep up with.

It totally depends on your definition of ‘good season’ too. It’s not as clear cut as ‘we’ve spent money so you expect this to happen’ - so many variables - it’s a very simplistic way to evaluate it.

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1 hour ago, simon uk said:

Nice one! So lj has spent 23 million putting his squad together, I don't know about the rest of the league but that is serious money, surely we should have the right to expect a good season after that?

If that's the case then what do Villa fans have a right to expect after a spend of £70m last season?

The only thing we, as fans,  have a right to expect is that City will, over a period of time, frustrate, annoy, flatter to deceive and disappoint all too often. 

However, all of that is worth it for the all too fleeting moments of success, when it all comes together and provides exciting, attractive and winning football.

We might be on the verge of something like that just now, so we all best enjoy it while we can, because as sure as night follows day there will be pain and disappointment just around the corner.  

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On 18/09/2017 at 08:47, bpexile said:

I don't want to start a slanging match  so before I put on my tin hat, can we all remember in LJs early days of being head coach at city he stated how he thought that Joe Bryan & Bobby Reid were class acts of big monetary value. He was ridiculed by many on here & the same wanted city to replace both of these lads. Now we could argue that they are our two most prized players. Is it possible that we under estimated LJ ? I'm certainly guilty, I was one that wanted him out but am prepared to admit I was wrong, LJ has slowly won me over, we seem to be playing with real purpose at last & have good quality in depth with some very good looking academy lads, what are your genuine thoughts please.

:gasmask:  :gasmask:

When I asked the question I was unsure what to expect, there's always the happy clappers & always the knockers of LJ no matter what he does. Obviously a long way to go in the season but the general feeling appears to that we are playing with a lot more intensity & dare I say it "class". Players attitude stands out to me after losing a certain high profile bad apple & credit must go to the entire coaching team. Interesting times at the gate with many tests awaiting.

Thankyou to all that gave genuine thought & after all, we all want the same thing, success for BCFC :clap:

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12 minutes ago, downendcity said:

If that's the case then what do Villa fans have a right to expect after a spend of £70m last season?

The only thing we, as fans,  have a right to expect is that City will, over a period of time, frustrate, annoy, flatter to deceive and disappoint all too often. 

However, all of that is worth it for the all too fleeting moments of success, when it all comes together and provides exciting, attractive and winning football.

We might be on the verge of something like that just now, so we all best enjoy it while we can, because as sure as night follows day there will be pain and disappointment just around the corner.  

Villa fans should have the right to expect a record points tally for that, but they are a mess and not stable. Clearly in the championship anyone can beat anyone else, and that might happen tomorrow,  and I accept it if someone scores a wondergoal, or they are much better than us. I don't accept it if we aren't organised and it happens for 14 or 15 games in a row, and hopefully that's not going to be an issue this season.

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2 hours ago, simon uk said:

Nice one! So lj has spent 23 million putting his squad together, I don't know about the rest of the league but that is serious money, surely we should have the right to expect a good season after that?

Phileas sums things up very well

Over the same time period of 3 transfer windows unless marked otherwise:

Villa- £77.2m

Brum- £24.5m (No fee given for Vassel, another million on top at least)

Derby- £24.64m

Wolves- £51.48m

Norwich- £32.21m

Middlesbrough*- £50.09m

 

 

*As they were in the Prem I only included their transfer window since relegation- Summer 2017. 

 

So at the minimum a quarter of the league has spent more than us.

Haven't done the likes of Leeds, Sunderland, Hull, Fulham, etc.

 

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On 19/09/2017 at 10:36, Kid in the Riot said:

And to help illustrate your point, here is the league table from last season as of the first week of November after a 2-2 draw at Barnsley:

image.png.6d776786280be093a101948b72d92f3a.png

Might help explain why many are reigning in the optimism for now...

Precisely this-lets see the reaction after a few dodgy results on the spin....??...

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Was probably one of few that wanted not LJ sacked. History tells that is not the way to go. Brave and some gamble not to sack him. The Club have a plan and so far so good! Establish in this leauge at the moment, midtable is good. The squad we got and the way we play looks very good. LJ and the staf does a good job. For the first time for a long while we are a solid team. Defence, mf and fw. Early days but my optimism is there. Last 10-11 games last season showed that something happened with the team. We are stronger this season and Im sure we will do fine. Midtable is ok but offcause my heart will top six. The players know knows what to do and the confidence is there. Its like building a house, no stress. Today we go to Norwich, we have a good chance to take points, thats progress. Think its good to have a young manager who have played in this level not long ago.

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14 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

Well his win ratio here is 40% which is very respectable. As for spending huge, we have had huge fees for Kodjia and income from the Bolasie deal amongst others. I doubt our net spend is that high.

Hi Phil,

You've mentioned net spend a couple of times in this thread and youre not the only one who does it. I have just a small problem with it. Kodjia & Bolasie weren't LJ's assets. So he can't really claim any slack (against the backdrop of spending a small fortune) for selling them. 

I suppose the only comparison I can make is taking over a club that are 9 points clear and finishing 4th. And then claiming that the new manager did well to finish 4th. 

I'm very conscious that the above paragraphs may read as anti LJ. And I've never been shy in saying that I didn't think he was the right man for the job... however, they're not supposed to come across anti LJ, it just sticks in my throat a little when people use signings other than his own to offset his massive spend. 

In answer to the original question... have we underestimated LJ? Maybe. Nothing will ever change my mind that he should've been sacked but SL didn't and as much as I disagreed (and still do), that decision is proving a good one. 

Long may LJ continue to prove me wrong. I always just craved a little more consistency. And in fairness, this current purple patch is giving us well beyond that. 

Many have said that this season feels different. We're not scraping wins, we're actually playing well. That Derby game was the pinnacle of several years. 

God I hope this continues. 

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53 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

Hi Phil,

You've mentioned net spend a couple of times in this thread and youre not the only one who does it. I have just a small problem with it. Kodjia & Bolasie weren't LJ's assets. So he can't really claim any slack (against the backdrop of spending a small fortune) for selling them. 

I see what you’re saying - but as soon as a manager takes over a club then they do become ‘his’. The same way he inherits all the deadwood at a club.

It’s good fortune if he does inherit a sell on fee windfall, but it still exists so you have to count it as ‘his’.

53 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I suppose the only comparison I can make is taking over a club that are 9 points clear and finishing 4th. And then claiming that the new manager did well to finish 4th. 

I'm very conscious that the above paragraphs may read as anti LJ. And I've never been shy in saying that I didn't think he was the right man for the job... however, they're not supposed to come across anti LJ, it just sticks in my throat a little when people use signings other than his own to offset his massive spend. 

I disagree. As above, I think football is generally so transient and short termist that you have to take things as they stand in a particular moment.

LJ had the good fortune to inherit the Bolasie money.

As for Kodjia, well he still managed him for around a third of a season. It’s not as if he did nothing with Kodjia and was planning on using him in 16/17. We also had to negotiate the price for him.

I don’t think it’s a case of claiming ‘slack’ as such. The problem is we don’t know whether LJ’s sanctioned spending was with the assumption that Kodjia would leave, we’d get the Bolasie money etc or whether it was in spite of it.

Because we don’t know that - we have to view it based on what we know and that is that the net spend is low.

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Many well considered views on this forum.

I definitely didn't want LJ appointed and I was fully behind him being fired last year. But he wasn't. And we're having a great run - really great if you go into the back end of last season.

So what changed?

  1. Bad apples left the club
  2. Pembo was fired and Jamie Mac took over (I also was fuming about this!)
  3. We started to pull together towards a playing strategy that works
  4. The players believe in themselves
  5. We have a united squad - much like when Cotts was here
  6. We've pulled rabbits out of hats - Reid upfront is a masterstroke
  7. The young players are starting to step up (or not) at this level

Anyone who manages a team knows that some of the above is relevant for all teams. If you don't have cohesion, then you might as well pack up, because you'll never ever reach your potential (no matter how much you pay people.) When you have everyone playing to a system, which everyone understands you can achieve way more with less talented individuals.  

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3 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Hi Phil,

You've mentioned net spend a couple of times in this thread and youre not the only one who does it. I have just a small problem with it. Kodjia & Bolasie weren't LJ's assets. So he can't really claim any slack (against the backdrop of spending a small fortune) for selling them. 

I suppose the only comparison I can make is taking over a club that are 9 points clear and finishing 4th. And then claiming that the new manager did well to finish 4th. 

I'm very conscious that the above paragraphs may read as anti LJ. And I've never been shy in saying that I didn't think he was the right man for the job... however, they're not supposed to come across anti LJ, it just sticks in my throat a little when people use signings other than his own to offset his massive spend. 

In answer to the original question... have we underestimated LJ? Maybe. Nothing will ever change my mind that he should've been sacked but SL didn't and as much as I disagreed (and still do), that decision is proving a good one. 

Long may LJ continue to prove me wrong. I always just craved a little more consistency. And in fairness, this current purple patch is giving us well beyond that. 

Many have said that this season feels different. We're not scraping wins, we're actually playing well. That Derby game was the pinnacle of several years. 

God I hope this continues. 

The "net spend" issue should be separated from the point about how much and how many players LJ has brought in anyway. One is an off the field issue concerning our finances and the other is a first team playing squad matter.

Great that the club is being run more sustainably in terms of maximising returns on players, however the simple fact is that LJ has been allowed to bring in 26 first team squad players to the tune of nearly £25m in 18 months. He has been backed phenomenally in the transfer market, like no other manager we've had IMO, and we are perhaps now starting to see some of the rewards of that (hopefully, as still very early days).

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3 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Hi Phil,

You've mentioned net spend a couple of times in this thread and youre not the only one who does it. I have just a small problem with it. Kodjia & Bolasie weren't LJ's assets. So he can't really claim any slack (against the backdrop of spending a small fortune) for selling them. 

 

So, imagine Spurs sell Kane for £100m and bring in a replacement for £20m, but who is unproven at the top level. Spurs go on to improve and challenge for the title and get the Champions League final.

They lose possibly the best striker in the country, yet Pochettino improves the team and performances , with a net transfer surplus of £80m and you would not cut him any slack because Kane was not his player?

I give you that Bolasie was a windfall, and nothing to do with LJ, but at the end of the previous season  Kodjia had been key to our performances and survival and I am sure LJ would have seen JK as a crucial component in the following season's team. With the completely unproven TA as our only real option how many fans felt less than optimistic about our chances when JK left early last season?

What LJ and MA have done is replaced a £15m striker and one of the most prolific strikers in the country last season, with a strike force that cost nothing ( Bobby ) £300,000 (Taylor - although real value is of course £10m!) and our record signing at £5m+. Obviously LJ has brought in other players costing money throughout the team , which was desperately needed as we had   too small a squad with limited options.

To be performing at the level we now are and scoring regularly as we are surely gives LJ a bit of slack?

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5 minutes ago, downendcity said:

So, imagine Spurs sell Kane for £100m and bring in a replacement for £20m, but who is unproven at the top level. Spurs go on to improve and challenge for the title and get the Champions League final.

They lose possibly the best striker in the country, yet Pochettino improves the team and performances , with a net transfer surplus of £80m and you would not cut him any slack because Kane was not his player?

I give you that Bolasie was a windfall, and nothing to do with LJ, but at the end of the previous season  Kodjia had been key to our performances and survival and I am sure LJ would have seen JK as a crucial component in the following season's team. With the completely unproven TA as our only real option how many fans felt less than optimistic about our chances when JK left early last season?

What LJ and MA have done is replaced a £15m striker and one of the most prolific strikers in the country last season, with a strike force that cost nothing ( Bobby ) £300,000 (Taylor - although real value is of course £10m!) and our record signing at £5m+. Obviously LJ has brought in other players costing money throughout the team , which was desperately needed as we had   too small a squad with limited options.

To be performing at the level we now are and scoring regularly as we are surely gives LJ a bit of slack?

I don't disagree with any of that. 

However, my comments are set against a backdrop of people who use LJ's net spend as defence against the inordinate amount he's spent. He has spent masses. Now, the fact that the transfer market has got silly, or the squad needed that spending on it is neither here nor there, the fact is that LJ has spent an awful lot and the money coming in from Kodjia and Bolasie is largely irrelevant in this debate. 

Now, as I said before, this isn't anti LJ. It really isn't. Merely a balanced view of his spending. 

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4 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

I don't disagree with any of that. 

However, my comments are set against a backdrop of people who use LJ's net spend as defence against the inordinate amount he's spent. He has spent masses. Now, the fact that the transfer market has got silly, or the squad needed that spending on it is neither here nor there, the fact is that LJ has spent an awful lot and the money coming in from Kodjia and Bolasie is largely irrelevant in this debate. 

Now, as I said before, this isn't anti LJ. It really isn't. Merely a balanced view of his spending. 

It would be interesting to know whether our spending was sanctioned in spite of preempted outgoing fees or because of them.

Truthfully, I suspect it’s in spite of them and Lansdown would’ve backed LJ even if we’d received no incoming fees for players. That’s just my opinion though.

I think the net spend is relevant because it’s something that we can work out - not just an opinion - and should be factored in. I don’t think it’s a defence as such, just a caveat to be considered when people say ‘he’s spent lots’ in isolation.

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4 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

Hi Phil,

You've mentioned net spend a couple of times in this thread and youre not the only one who does it. I have just a small problem with it. Kodjia & Bolasie weren't LJ's assets. So he can't really claim any slack (against the backdrop of spending a small fortune) for selling them. 

I suppose the only comparison I can make is taking over a club that are 9 points clear and finishing 4th. And then claiming that the new manager did well to finish 4th. 

I'm very conscious that the above paragraphs may read as anti LJ. And I've never been shy in saying that I didn't think he was the right man for the job... however, they're not supposed to come across anti LJ, it just sticks in my throat a little when people use signings other than his own to offset his massive spend. 

In answer to the original question... have we underestimated LJ? Maybe. Nothing will ever change my mind that he should've been sacked but SL didn't and as much as I disagreed (and still do), that decision is proving a good one. 

Long may LJ continue to prove me wrong. I always just craved a little more consistency. And in fairness, this current purple patch is giving us well beyond that. 

Many have said that this season feels different. We're not scraping wins, we're actually playing well. That Derby game was the pinnacle of several years. 

God I hope this continues. 

Another way of looking at it though is that LJ took over a squad and was "forced" due to the money on offer to lose his best player / most expensive asset, i.e. Kodjia, who will need replacing. Bolasie is a different matter as he had already left and it was fortunate.

I feel to look at net spend you should include Kodjia but not include the Bolasie income (no one knows for sure what this is anyway).

Then gives LJ a net spend of about £6m (at a guess) which compared to a lot of clubs in the division is nothing at all. Especially considering the fact that when he took over we had a very thin squad in quality and depth so it was always going to require spending.

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I seem to Look at this and see everyone complain on last seasons final League Position but as bad as it seemed it was progress from the season before, The fact we ( SL ) stuck with Johnson I see as good decision, I can eat my words if needed but anything above 17th theoretically is progress, but not as fast as everyone want's.

Our team is much stronger in depth and The Much needed positions have been filled well, Rb - Pisano looks Quality, Wingers ( Leko,Elliason,Paterson, O'Dowda,Brownhill )All good enough and better strength than last season, Goalkeeper, However much people slate Fielding he imo is a championship goalkeeper with steele on par with Him, then brings me to Famara, Bobby,Taylor,Đurić, rather than relying on 1 striker for most of the season  (which proved to be better onve taylor and Đurić came in ) we have now got Johnson Scratching his head on who to put up front on the day ( Once Đurić is fit and after Taylors MOTM performance against Stoke) Not forgetting Engval loan will end if I'm right next month which will also add competition and strength if/ when needed which all 5 have and are proven Goalscorers !

All this is credit to Johnson, Ashton, Tinnion, He has taken a team and made his own, Making Fairly cheap deals compared to other teams in our league and creating a strong team !

With loaned players all doing pretty well at there levels who is to say that our needed positions aren't amongst them.

 

 

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The fact is though that lj has spent nearly 25 million on his players since he has been here, putting his squad together, as well as inheriting some good talent that was already here, that should be enough to get him challenging in the upper reaches of th division, not withstanding some of the money that villa and wolves and 1 or others might have spent. That 25 mil included the cost of a front line striker to replace kodjia, which was his striker in diedhou.

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Others have said in other threads that we shouldn't get too blinded by our transfer spending. It is the way of the transfer market now. In addition we are not approaching the top spenders in the division and we are taking calculated gambles with our signing of young or foreign players (or both). We are not spending £15m on single players as others in our division are doing. So I see no reason why we should 'expect' promotion this season. I'll be happy with improvement, which is solid mid table. Being patient with our manager and our young players seems to be paying off and long may it continue (both the patience and the form!)

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12 minutes ago, simon uk said:

The fact is though that lj has spent nearly 25 million on his players since he has been here, putting his squad together, as well as inheriting some good talent that was already here, that should be enough to get him challenging in the upper reaches of th division, not withstanding some of the money that villa and wolves and 1 or others might have spent. That 25 mil included the cost of a front line striker to replace kodjia, which was his striker in diedhou.

Villa have spent £70m, have players with premier league experience, as does their manager,  but they've not been able to challenge in the upper reaches of the championship.

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