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If we are still in the top 6 at the end of February.


Ashtonwurzel

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7 hours ago, reddogkev said:

hopefully grab at least a draw against Leeds, but have to watch out for the dreaded new manager bounce.

 

If the new manager bounce really worked Leeds would already be league champions (9 managers in four years)?

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1 hour ago, old_eastender said:

Based on recent league form, we will not be in the top 6 come end of Feb, we have got precisely 1 more point now than we had after 65 mins on January 30th!

Let's face it, nobody can accurately predict the Championship - which is what makes it such a great league - very few, if any of us predicted we would go to Bolton and put in such a lacklustre display and get beat. I know I was expecting 3 pts.

As the old saying goes just have to take it one game at a time.

 

I know you said recent form, but just playing devil’s advocate, taking the team’s below us:

Preston - need to score 3 more points than us from 4 games 

  • awayto Brentford
  • home to Wolves
  • away to Villa
  • home to Ipswich

I would seriously fancy our chances of still being above them by the end of the month.

Sheffield Utd - need to score 5 more points than us from 3 games (but they’ll have a game in hand - or lose in hand as I call them)

  • home to Leeds
  • home to QPR
  • away to Hull

I don’t see them getting 9 points, so even with 7, we’d have to get 2 points or less...fancy us there too.

Boro - need to get 6 more points from 4 games:

  • home to Reading
  • away to Cardiff
  • home to Hull
  • away to Sunderland

they could string a run, but the fact that they play Cardiff would mean Cardiff worse off.  They are the biggest threat of the 3 so far, but 6 points more than us, unlikely....they could close the gap a fair bit though.

Leeds - 7 points behind us!1

  • away to Sheffield Utd (one will take points off the other)
  • home to City
  • away to Derby
  • home to Brentford

Tough set of games.

I think we’d have to not win any of our next four to fall out of the top 6.  Not saying we might be there on goal difference, but I don’t see it.

Hope i’m Right!

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6 hours ago, underhanded said:

I just predicted the rest of the season results. Pretty rushed, so not given loads of thought, but this is how it ended up!

 

1 Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers 46 31 8 7 81:35 46 101
2 Derby County Derby County 46 25 14 7 72:37 35 89
3 Fulham FC Fulham FC 46 24 14 8 81:52 29 86
4 Aston Villa Aston Villa 46 24 13 9 67:40 27 85
5 Cardiff City Cardiff City 45 23 10 12 70:49 21 79
6 Bristol City Bristol City 46 22 13 11 67:47 20 79
7 Middlesbrough FC Middlesbrough FC 46 23 10 13 61:42 19 79
8 Preston North End Preston North End 46 16 19 11 50:46 4 67
9 Norwich City Norwich City 46 19 10 17 48:50 -2 67
10 Sheffield United Sheffield United 46 19 8 19 55:52 3 65
11 Brentford FC Brentford FC 46 16 15 15 54:53 1 63
12 Leeds United Leeds United 46 17 11 18 56:54 2 62
13 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 46 18 7 21 54:61 -7 61
14 Millwall FC Millwall FC 46 12 18 16 46:46 0 54
15 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 46 14 9 23 49:61 -12 51
16 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 46 12 15 19 43:59 -16 51
17 Hull City Hull City 46 11 17 18 56:63 -7 50
18 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 12 14 20 47:57 -10 50
19 Reading FC Reading FC 46 12 13 21 46:58 -12 49
20 Barnsley FC Barnsley FC 46 10 16 20 43:61 -18 46
21 Sunderland AFC Sunderland AFC 46 10 16 20 44:65 -21 46
22 Birmingham City Birmingham City 46 12 9 25 36:61 -25 45
23 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers 45 10 13 22 44:70 -26 43
24 Burton Albion Burton Albion 46 9 8 29 32:83 -51 35

Last day's going to be squeaky bum time then!

Major better get brewing a massive stock of his oil.

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8 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

I explained my theory in my post . 

You then went on and announced two players that could very well leave in the summer which kind of supports what I was saying .

If Joe or Bobby get Prem offers in the summer they will go . 

The ones remaining would be Frankie  and Pack from the double winning side .

It's the spine of the side that have played together through thick and thin for sometime now and know each other's game perfectly well.

Evidently  we have quality players coming through but it just may be that this group will have run its course and change is necessary.

 

I dont think either Joe or Bobby will get a prem move in the summer in my humble opinion.. i think go up or not the vast majority of this squad if not all will stay together for the start of next season.

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13 hours ago, Phileas Fogg said:

I agree Kev, I believe we can and will make the top 6. We really do need to win on Saturday though for belief as much as anything.

We have a horrible record at Leeds so agree a draw would be a good result - some interesting reading on the 'new manager bounce' here https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference

That article is far too simplistic; to summarise they say 'manager's don't really matter' or did I miss out a core detail? 

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On 06/02/2018 at 15:19, lancashirerobin said:

Reading and Wednesday aren’t massively underachieving imho. They both overachieved last season. Difference between us and them are that they are both overrrates with players on massive contracts who believe their own hype. They have no real strategy rather than just throwing money at the problem, now they are inevitably treading water as they have poor teams and are risking ffp. We have a bunch of young, hungry, improving players who are also grounded, whilst still being very talented. We are in very good hands. Those clubs aren’t.

I think the FFP point is well made. I can’t really fathom the different ways it’s flouted but it does seem some traditionally “bigger” clubs have had a decent go and are now having to reign in their spending. Whether that’s the owner realising it’s not so simple and moving on or some continuity regarding their previous spend and obligations re  FFP I can’t  tell. There does seem to be a pattern of bubbles with clubs Derby, Forest, Wednesday, Leeds etc

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