WTF. Our record with extra training and preparation.

[Olé]

Full disclosure - I don't believe in players simply lacking interest or not manning up. I prefer Occam's Razor - the most obvious conclusion is usually the right one. To me the obvious conclusion is that the instructions simply don't work. On that note, something has been nagging at me for a while now so I decided to check it. 

In his time as Bristol City manager, LJ's record from games in the week after given extra time to specifically train and prepare the team is P17 W1 D6 L10 F13 A33. At worst I'd expect with extra preparation the team should be no worse than average, ideally better prepared. I certainly wouldn't expect it to be consistently awful. 

What are we doing in training? Are the players confused? Tired? Something is very wrong here. There's too much data for it to be a coincidence. People with long memories of our performances will recognise many of our worst and most inexplicably bad displays are in this list. Go figure.

 

(10 Day break due to Cup Rearrangement)

L 0-4 Brighton (H)

 

(International Break)

L 0-4 Hull (A)

D 1-1 Rotherham (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Rotherham (A)

L 2-3 Sheffield Wed (A)

 

(International Break)

L 1-2 Cardiff (A)

L 0-1 QPR (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-1 Birmingham (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-2 Brentford (A)

L 0-5 Preston (A)

 

(International Break)

W 1-0 Reading (A)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Burton (H)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Sheffield Wed (A)

L 1-2 Preston (H)

 

(Warm Weather Training - Dubai)

D 3-3 Sunderland (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Barnsley (A)

L 0-1 Brentford (H)

[Singingsuperstar]

2 minutes ago, Olé said:

Full disclosure - I don't believe in players simply lacking interest or not manning up. I prefer Occam's Razor - the most obvious conclusion is usually the right one.

To me the obvious conclusion is that the instructions simply don't work. On that note, something has been nagging at me for a while now so I decided to check it. 

In his time as Bristol City manager, LJ's record from games in the week after given extra time to specifically train and prepare the team is P14 W1 D5 L8 F10 A28.

At worst I'd expect with extra preparation the team should be no worse than average, ideally better prepared. I certainly wouldn't expect it to be consistently awful. 

What are we doing in training? Are the players confused? Tired? Something is very wrong here. There's too much data for it to be a coincidence.

People with long memories of our performances will recognise many of our worst and most inexplicably bad displays are in this list. Go figure.

 

(10 Day break due to Cup Rearrangement)

L 0-4 Brighton (H)

 

(International Break)

L 0-4 Hull (A)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Rotherham (A)

 

(International Break)

L 1-2 Cardiff (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-1 Birmingham (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-2 Brentford (A)

L 0-5 Preston (A)

 

(International Break)

W 1-0 Reading (A)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Burton (H)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Sheffield Wed (A)

L 1-2 Preston (H)

 

(Warm Weather Training - Dubai)

D 3-3 Sunderland (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Barnsley (A)

L 0-1 Brentford (H)

I started a thread on Training - wtf are you lot doing when your supposed to be training. Whatever has been happening this year (2018) aint working. 

[Mike Hunt-Hertz]

Maybe they have been trainspotting.

[Kid in the Riot]

That is astonishing.

Even the draws were against really poor sides (often bottom of the league) in: Rotherham, Burton, Sheff Wed, Sunderland, Barnsley!!

As LJ is supposedly so hot on data, I wonder if he is aware of this and is trying to address it?

[New Dazzler]

I think there is another to be added (which adds weight to the theory).  The 3-2 defeat at Sheffield Weds in 2016 was just 3 days after the Rotherham game following the international break.  I knew we have had problems following international breaks, but to see the actual list of results lined up like that is totally baffling. 

Just noticed (reason for edit)  that we also lost 1-0 to QPR just days after the Cardiff defeat!

[Olé]

8 minutes ago, New Dazzler said:

I think there is another to be added (which adds weight to the theory).  The 3-2 defeat at Sheffield Weds in 2016 was just 3 days after the Rotherham game following the international break.  I knew we have had problems following international breaks, but to see the actual list of results lined up like that is totally baffling. 

Just noticed (reason for edit)  that we also lost 1-0 to QPR just days after the Cardiff defeat!

You're quite right - not sure why I missed those. Edited now! Makes it even more alarming.

[Kid in the Riot]

Post-international breaks we have collected 8 points from 16 games.

[CheddarReds]

If I remember correctly, we've heard LJ say the players will have an extended break over the international period on more than one occasion, perhaps they are over rested and come back slightly undercooked/ under prepared? 

 

[ExiledAjax]

It would be a big job but surely to really get a sense of whether this is causation or correlation you would need similar data for every other team in the division (or even the entire 92). Otherwise you are only analysing our data in isolation.

I agree on the face of it this is a pretty shocking set of data - but it is still a small sample size in the grand scheme of things.

If a number of other teams have similar data, then you can look to what they do during the time off compared to what we do.  If those actions were the same then you may be able to build a case that says we need to change. Similarly if there are a number of teams with excellent post-break results and they are shown to be doing something radically different to us during that time off then you can make the case that we should emulate them.

[Desso]

Really interesting info. Could it be  overthinking, overtraining, loss of momentum or something else? Maybe the modern thinking young manager thing is vastly overrated and we should consider going with an old fashioned, sleeves rolled up, tells it like it is boss, to give them some motivation. The "these players want to be loved" approach obviously isn't working.

[Olé]

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It would be a big job but surely to really get a sense of whether this is causation or correlation you would need similar data for every other team in the division (or even the entire 92). Otherwise you are only analysing our data in isolation.

The only team I think we could usefully compare to is Ipswich, because it's the only team to have had the same manager throughout the period (which is also important for correlation), and to play to a similar standard (i.e. mid table). Their form in the same period is P17 W5 D6 L6 F16 A16 - almost perfectly average.

(I missed another result of ours - 1-1 with Warnock's Rotherham at home - now added, and it isn't looking any better).

[spudski]

I can't see anything in the way we set out to play that is fundamentally different to what we have done before.

I don't think it's over thinking, or confusion, or being asked to do things differently.

I watched yesterday, and the players were still trying to do the same things, but failing.

They looked lethargic, slow, and when they had opportunity to make the right move, chose to do the opposite. Either passing error, or intercepted or poor movement.

I asked myself, why does a player refuse the ball twice, when he's not marked and in position to accept the ball, to continue a section of play that would have opened up the opposition.

Why refuse the passes, and make the player with the ball turn and make the wrong pass and wrong option?

I've never seen the players do the basics so wrong, as they did yesterday...I've witnessed it with teams in the past that have been tired both physically and mentally. So I can only come to the conclusion from what I've witnessed recently, that it's down to this.

I also get the impression that we didn't expect to be in this position this season.

In LJ's audio yesterday he made some strange comments.

One was about being in this position 'so we might as well try and go for it', but if not we'll be in a better position next season'....words to that effect.

It's like we are surprised by it all, and it's not going to the plan they intended. And now we find ourselves in with a shout, it's like 'oh well, lets give it a go'...not like it was planned. That's how it sounds when listening.

With the way contracts and agreed pre contracts work these days, and the fact we plan so far ahead, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't feel prepared....which is stupid I know...however, with budgets and contracts we just don't know.

 

[cheshire_red]

I posted about this several months ago, will try and find it.

[Midlands Robin]

What makes that list look more bad is the fact that of the 11 occasions listed, prior to 7 of them we won both the preceding games. In fact counting the 22 games played prior to those listed above (2 matches before each of the 11) our record is played 22, W16, D4, L2.

before: P22 W16 D4 L2 Win percentage 73%

After: P17 W1 D6 L10 Win percentage 6%

 

 

[Curr Avon]

1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

As LJ is supposedly so hot on data, I wonder if he is aware of this and is trying to address it?

Yes. And Lee is consulting his top man, Al Gorithm.

[Major Isewater]

47 minutes ago, Desso said:

Really interesting info. Could it be  overthinking, overtraining, loss of momentum or something else? Maybe the modern thinking young manager thing is vastly overrated and we should consider going with an old fashioned, sleeves rolled up, tells it like it is boss, to give them some motivation. The "these players want to be loved" approach obviously isn't working.

In the ' Mick McCarthy ' mould you mean ? 

[tinman85]

1 hour ago, Olé said:

Full disclosure - I don't believe in players simply lacking interest or not manning up. I prefer Occam's Razor - the most obvious conclusion is usually the right one. To me the obvious conclusion is that the instructions simply don't work. On that note, something has been nagging at me for a while now so I decided to check it. 

In his time as Bristol City manager, LJ's record from games in the week after given extra time to specifically train and prepare the team is P17 W1 D6 L10 F13 A33. At worst I'd expect with extra preparation the team should be no worse than average, ideally better prepared. I certainly wouldn't expect it to be consistently awful. 

What are we doing in training? Are the players confused? Tired? Something is very wrong here. There's too much data for it to be a coincidence. People with long memories of our performances will recognise many of our worst and most inexplicably bad displays are in this list. Go figure.

 

(10 Day break due to Cup Rearrangement)

L 0-4 Brighton (H)

 

(International Break)

L 0-4 Hull (A)

D 1-1 Rotherham (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Rotherham (A)

L 2-3 Sheffield Wed (A)

 

(International Break)

L 1-2 Cardiff (A)

L 0-1 QPR (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-1 Birmingham (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-2 Brentford (A)

L 0-5 Preston (A)

 

(International Break)

W 1-0 Reading (A)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Burton (H)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Sheffield Wed (A)

L 1-2 Preston (H)

 

(Warm Weather Training - Dubai)

D 3-3 Sunderland (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Barnsley (A)

L 0-1 Brentford (H)

Johnson gives them loads of time off. Warnock get his lads on the muddy cold pitches and makes players out of them. Easy club to play for with a manager who is under no pressure. 

[Major Isewater]

32 minutes ago, spudski said:

I can't see anything in the way we set out to play that is fundamentally different to what we have done before.

I don't think it's over thinking, or confusion, or being asked to do things differently.

I watched yesterday, and the players were still trying to do the same things, but failing.

They looked lethargic, slow, and when they had opportunity to make the right move, chose to do the opposite. Either passing error, or intercepted or poor movement.

I asked myself, why does a player refuse the ball twice, when he's not marked and in position to accept the ball, to continue a section of play that would have opened up the opposition.

Why refuse the passes, and make the player with the ball turn and make the wrong pass and wrong option?

I've never seen the players do the basics so wrong, as they did yesterday...I've witnessed it with teams in the past that have been tired both physically and mentally. So I can only come to the conclusion from what I've witnessed recently, that it's down to this.

I also get the impression that we didn't expect to be in this position this season.

In LJ's audio yesterday he made some strange comments.

One was about being in this position 'so we might as well try and go for it', but if not we'll be in a better position next season'....words to that effect.

It's like we are surprised by it all, and it's not going to the plan they intended. And now we find ourselves in with a shout, it's like 'oh well, lets give it a go'...not like it was planned. That's how it sounds when listening.

With the way contracts and agreed pre contracts work these days, and the fact we plan so far ahead, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't feel prepared....which is stupid I know...however, with budgets and contracts we just don't know.

 

I'm sure it's exactly this .

I half jokingly said that perhaps the lads are on a ' keep out of the top six ' bonus .

" Lee , it's Uncle Steve here , now listen Lee you are really screwing up our forecasts and budgets we haven't planned for promotion for another twenty years when your daughter will be old enough to take over as coach.

If you could just, very subtly, slow the project down a bit , I'm looking at a new contract for you .

Pack kid looking a bit sharp , give him a rest.

January was brilliant, well done . None of those lads have moved us forward but to the fans and the outside world it looks like I've backed you all the way , chortle .

Keep it up Lee. "

 

[MarcusX]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

I can't see anything in the way we set out to play that is fundamentally different to what we have done before.

I don't think it's over thinking, or confusion, or being asked to do things differently.

I watched yesterday, and the players were still trying to do the same things, but failing.

They looked lethargic, slow, and when they had opportunity to make the right move, chose to do the opposite. Either passing error, or intercepted or poor movement.

I asked myself, why does a player refuse the ball twice, when he's not marked and in position to accept the ball, to continue a section of play that would have opened up the opposition.

Why refuse the passes, and make the player with the ball turn and make the wrong pass and wrong option?

I've never seen the players do the basics so wrong, as they did yesterday...I've witnessed it with teams in the past that have been tired both physically and mentally. So I can only come to the conclusion from what I've witnessed recently, that it's down to this.

I also get the impression that we didn't expect to be in this position this season.

In LJ's audio yesterday he made some strange comments.

One was about being in this position 'so we might as well try and go for it', but if not we'll be in a better position next season'....words to that effect.

It's like we are surprised by it all, and it's not going to the plan they intended. And now we find ourselves in with a shout, it's like 'oh well, lets give it a go'...not like it was planned. That's how it sounds when listening.

With the way contracts and agreed pre contracts work these days, and the fact we plan so far ahead, it wouldn't surprise me if we don't feel prepared....which is stupid I know...however, with budgets and contracts we just don't know.

 

I refer to the bold statement. Confidence. It's completely shot within the squad.

[spudski]

8 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

I refer to the bold statement. Confidence. It's completely shot within the squad.

I tend to agree.

However I think it's confidence in their own ability, rather than what the gaffer is doing, as they have shown they can do it under his instruction.

LJ has also alluded to how the players don't respond well to losing and criticism, and that they need positive encouragement all the time.

Imo, some of them are knackered and know if they receive the ball in certain areas, that there is a good chance they will screw up and get the blame.

Saw this twice with JB yesterday.

And we he did try, he made the wrong decisions and screwed up...so maybe some of them know their bodies and minds and know when it's not going right.

[BobBobSuperBob]

Thanks @Olé

Wow

Realised we always seemed poor after breaks but that record is simply staggering

I know he appears generous with days off as the players are often  on social media traveling or on breaks in London etc  during the breaks

 

Note to LJ

Whatever you are doing - change and quickly because it sure isn’t working 

[Olé]

2 hours ago, spudski said:

I can't see anything in the way we set out to play that is fundamentally different to what we have done before.

I don't think it's over thinking, or confusion, or being asked to do things differently.

I watched yesterday, and the players were still trying to do the same things, but failing.

I think we'd all agree confidence is low, but that doesn't explain the differences in results and performances before and after these breaks - particularly when you include periods when we were high on confidence, yet still did badly after the break. @Midlands Robin's additional stat makes this even more obvious.

People often forget that our worst performances of last season (Brentford/Preston) were not actually during our long hopeless losing run, they were after we had started to turn the corner. The minute there was a break, something got back inside the players heads - what was it? Too much or too little instruction? 

I would have thought that we're more likely to re-focus any confidence issues after a break to clear the mind (q.v. refreshed players on social media "buzzing to be back to football"), and be less able to address confidence issues with games coming thick and fast (q.v. robotic players on social media "we go again").  

I think @Red-Robbo posted in another thread about how yesterday the players looked like they had never met each other before. That was exactly what I said during the game up at Oakwell too, and I can think of a few games in this list that it applies to. That can't simply be the product of a lack of practice drills? 

[wendyredredrobin]

everything was working fine until they ate too much Christmas pudding. yesterday's performance looked like they also had too many Easter eggs.

Seriously though we we're playing our best football after Fam got injured.  playing six in the Middle with Bobby as a false number 9 was working until Fam came back.

Seems obvious to me. As obvious as playing Steele in goal and breaking quickly from his more accurate throws and Kicks.

[Dullmoan Tone]

4 hours ago, Olé said:

The only team I think we could usefully compare to is Ipswich, because it's the only team to have had the same manager throughout the period (which is also important for correlation), and to play to a similar standard (i.e. mid table). Their form in the same period is P17 W5 D6 L6 F16 A16 - almost perfectly average.

(I missed another result of ours - 1-1 with Warnock's Rotherham at home - now added, and it isn't looking any better).

The problem is to be statistically significant we should really choose another team with a similar number of internationals esp. those who do long hauls. I don't remember who (which isn't helpful) but a Prem Manager also said this week how they struggle after an international break. This might not just be jet lag (it wasn't a Top 6 manager), it could be that the team don't train together or train differently as not complete.

Also, could it be we play teams with no internationals so they are less affected?

That said your stats are very interesting / worrying in equal parts and I'm loathe to blame the few international travellers.

 

[Olé]

10 minutes ago, Dullmoan Tone said:

The problem is to be statistically significant we should really choose another team with a similar number of internationals esp. those who do long hauls. I don't remember who (which isn't helpful) but a Prem Manager also said this week how they struggle after an international break. This might not just be jet lag (it wasn't a Top 6 manager), it could be that the team don't train together or train differently as not complete.

Interesting - I didn't know the actual counts for this, but they are as follows:

• Magnússon - played for country on 7 international breaks since joining us, and had 6+2 City appearances in the 17 fixtures after these breaks
• O'Dowda - played for country on 6 international breaks since joining us, and had 7+3 City appearances in the 17 fixtures after these breaks
• Wright - played for country on 4 international breaks since joining us, and had 7 City appearances in the 17 fixtures after these breaks
• Diedhiou - played for country on 0 international breaks since joining us
• Djuric - played for country on 0 international breaks since joining us

https://www.national-football-teams.com/club/704/2017_1/Bristol_City.html

As you say, it would be unfair to blame these players or their travels, and I would have thought it's too small a number of players to produce such a pronounced affect.

I'm guessing on the balance of Championship teams that most will have had internationals away also - certainly Brighton, Hull, Sheff Wed, Birmingham, Reading etc.

[Frenchay Red]

As far as I know there were no long flights for our called up players in the recent break.

Oslo and Craven Cottage for the socceroos.

[Davefevs]

6 hours ago, Olé said:

Full disclosure - I don't believe in players simply lacking interest or not manning up. I prefer Occam's Razor - the most obvious conclusion is usually the right one. To me the obvious conclusion is that the instructions simply don't work. On that note, something has been nagging at me for a while now so I decided to check it. 

In his time as Bristol City manager, LJ's record from games in the week after given extra time to specifically train and prepare the team is P17 W1 D6 L10 F13 A33. At worst I'd expect with extra preparation the team should be no worse than average, ideally better prepared. I certainly wouldn't expect it to be consistently awful. 

What are we doing in training? Are the players confused? Tired? Something is very wrong here. There's too much data for it to be a coincidence. People with long memories of our performances will recognise many of our worst and most inexplicably bad displays are in this list. Go figure.

 

(10 Day break due to Cup Rearrangement)

L 0-4 Brighton (H)

 

(International Break)

L 0-4 Hull (A)

D 1-1 Rotherham (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Rotherham (A)

L 2-3 Sheffield Wed (A)

 

(International Break)

L 1-2 Cardiff (A)

L 0-1 QPR (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-1 Birmingham (A)

 

(International Break)

L 0-2 Brentford (A)

L 0-5 Preston (A)

 

(International Break)

W 1-0 Reading (A)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Burton (H)

 

(International Break)

D 0-0 Sheffield Wed (A)

L 1-2 Preston (H)

 

(Warm Weather Training - Dubai)

D 3-3 Sunderland (H)

 

(International Break)

D 2-2 Barnsley (A)

L 0-1 Brentford (H)

Gonna be pedantic here, but the first game in your list - Brighton - wasn’t following a break.  It was 3 days after Vyner made his debut v MKD (2-0 away win)....then got ripped apart by Jamie Murphy on the Tuesday.  It does really impact the poor set of results though.

6 hours ago, New Dazzler said:

I think there is another to be added (which adds weight to the theory).  The 3-2 defeat at Sheffield Weds in 2016 was just 3 days after the Rotherham game following the international break.  I knew we have had problems following international breaks, but to see the actual list of results lined up like that is totally baffling. 

Just noticed (reason for edit)  that we also lost 1-0 to QPR just days after the Cardiff defeat!

And didn’t we stay in Yorkshire for both games to lessen the travel?

[Olé]

14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Gonna be pedantic here, but the first game in your list - Brighton - wasn’t following a break.  It was 3 days after Vyner made his debut v MKD (2-0 away win)....then got ripped apart by Jamie Murphy on the Tuesday.  It does really impact the poor set of results though.

Good spot - oddly MK Dons missing from City's website (https://www.bcfc.co.uk/fixtures-results/first-team/201516-fixtures/) nice of them to follow AFC Wimbledon in not recognising franchise. I knew it wasn't an international break and thought it must be a cup weekend.

Corrected stats P16 W1 D6 L9 F13 A29

[Davefevs]

2 minutes ago, Olé said:

Good spot - oddly MK Dons missing from City's website (https://www.bcfc.co.uk/fixtures-results/first-team/201516-fixtures/) nice of them to follow AFC Wimbledon in not recognising franchise. I knew it wasn't an international break and thought it must be a cup weekend.

Corrected stats P16 W1 D6 L9 F13 A29

The Brighton game was so memorable, I knew it wasn’t right.  It is the only game in 39 years of watching (sporadically on occasions) that I’ve left early.  Only because I had a lift and he wanted to leave early....about 25 minutes into the game!.  I was gutted when I heard we had a pen on BBCRB, then we had the handbags with Agard and he missed.  You don’t forget halcyon days like those 

[Chicken George]

Wow. Interesting stats olé. 

And good back up from Midlands Robin. 

This is amazing and needs to be looked at by the club / LJ. 

A club / management team that talk so much about analysis, stats, percentage gains etc seriously need to fathom this one out. Shocking.